Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The G7 Group has released a report in which it states that "global stablecoins" pose a threat to the global financial system. The drafts G7 report presented various types of risk associated with digital currencies. It was also stated that even if companies belonging to the Libra Association that manage regulatory issues may not obtain the consent of the necessary regulatory bodies, stating:

"The G7 group believes that no stablecoin project should start operations until legal, regulatory and supervisory challenges and risks are properly addressed. [...] The solution to such threats does not necessarily guarantee that the regulatory authority will accept the adaptation of stablecoin".

G7 also states that global stablecoins with fast scaling potential can stifle competition and threaten financial stability if users lose confidence in the coin. The report will supposedly be presented to finance ministers at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund this week.


Technical market overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still trading inside of the parallel ascending channel. On its way down, the bulls have bounced three times from the technical support located at the level of $176.98 which was very close to the short-term trendline support as well. So far the bounce was rather shallow, but the bounce itself is a clue that the bulls are still defending the lower prices and are willing to push the market higher. The key technical resistance is still located at the level of $196.61 and only a clear and dynamic breakout higher will open the road towards the next target at $202.70 and $215.73.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $223.04
WR2 - $209.75
WR1 - $194.13

Weekly Pivot - $180.64
WS1 - $164.92
WS2 - $151.12
WS3 - $135.26


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Recent data from the GlassNode portal clearly show that the number of Bitcoin (BTC) addresses with balances of over 1000 BTC (USD 8.3 million) is increasing at the same pace this year as before 2014.

The growing balance of bitcoin wallets indicates a repetition of history, when the growth rate in this area, in the early BTC years, showed a similar impetus, and fresh appetite for rich bitcoin balances at much higher prices than five years ago speaks to richer people who boldly enter into cryptocurrency space.

It turns out that people who could then generate wallets with a capacity of not less than 1000 BTC just out of curiosity, today they do it solely for financial reasons, so we are probably experiencing a new bitcoin renaissance, this time fueled by the inflow of capital from investors with high net worth, while the first was from technology enthusiasts who were charging the network.

The desire to have BTC increased when altcoins did not succeed in 2019, essentially maintaining an uninterrupted bear market from the peak in 2017. At the same time, BTC had to become more promising for investors and breeders, achieving an increase of over 200% from the beginning of the year.

1000 BTC is currently worth over 8.3 million dollars. At the same time, we observe a smaller desire to have a comprehensive BTC unit. People are starting to enjoy bitcoin divisibility, also collecting larger or smaller parts of it.


Technical market overview:
The BTC/USD pair has reversed towards the technical support located at the level of $8,048 and it has been hovering around this level for some time now. This level is around the middle of the horizontal trading range located between the levels of $8,760 - $7,700, so the price in now back to the range again. The momentum is flat and so is the price action at the beginning of the new trading week as the global investors await a clear breakout in either direction. Please notice the larger timeframe trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,781
WR2 - $9,248
WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198
WS1 - $7,675
WS2 - $7,127
WS3 - $6,590


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sell zone for Bitcoin, bearish flag in play
14 October 2019

BTC has been trading lower exactly what I expected last week. I still expect that BTC trades more downside towards our down targets at 8,052 and 7,742.



Red rectangle – Important resistance levels

Green rectangle – Important support and objective

Purple falling line – Expected path

I see that watching the larger structure, BTC potentially finished ABC expanded flat upward correction. I found series of the lower lows and lower highs in recent 2 days, which his sign that sellers are in control. Important support levels are set at 8,052 and 7,742. Resistance levels is found at 8,362.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
As Vitalik Buterin said, after implementing the PoS consensus algorithm in Blockchain Ethereum, it will become more secure and expensive to attack than Bitcoin.

Buterin expressed this opinion during Devcon 5, the Ethereum developer conference, which was held in Osaka on October 8-11. In particular, he noticed that - after switching to PoS - the higher cost of a potential attack would make Ethereum a safer network.

Buterin began his presentation by talking about Bitcoin and paying tribute to anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, noting that he created crypto-economics to motivate people to maintain the network. The way the system was designed ensured that attackers would have to spend a lot of money to successfully break Blockchain. Still, Buterin said there was a problem with this architecture, explaining:

"And what about attackers who have really large additional resources associated with the protocol or just want to watch the world in flames? It could be the government. Or hackers who want to have fun. The criticism here says that we assume there are such participants motivated by economic incentives. What if there are people who still want to just ruin it?" - he said.

Thanks to PoS implementation, Ethereum users would block their Ether in intelligent contracts to get permission to verify new blocks instead of investing huge amounts of computing power - and electricity - as is the case in PoW systems. If stakeholders (users who close coins) behave badly, their stake (coins they blocked) will be lowered.

The more staked Ethers, the more likely they are to finally check block validity. Like the more a miner has hashate, the more likely it is to mine a block. In the PoS system envisaged by Buterin, after creating a new block, there is a period of time during which this block can be questioned and potentially can be proved to contain illegal data.


Technical market overview:
The ETH/USD pair has reversed to the downside after the local high was made at the level of $196.01, just above the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement. On its way down, the bulls have bounced three times from the technical support located at the level of $176.98 which was very close to the short-term trendline support as well. So far the bounce was rather shallow, but the bounce itself is a clue that the bulls are still defending the lower prices and are willing to push the market higher.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $223.04
WR2 - $209.75
WR1 - $194.13

Weekly Pivot - $180.64
WS1 - $164.92
WS2 - $151.12
WS3 - $135.26


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Malaysian Ministry of Finance says that both domestic and global cryptocurrency adoption rates are low, despite the considerable attention the sector has received. However, in the recently published "Economic Outlook 2020" report, the ministry noted that several prominent companies from key sectors of the economy have taken steps to adopt digital currencies, according to financial media:

"Although the impact of these projects was not even more noticeable, digital assets may appear as part of the wider economy or go as a novelty, depending on the result of their use," the report says.

The ministry called on the global authorities to formulate a legal framework to solve problems related to digital assets, noting that close monitoring of the sector's development is necessary.

The report summarizes the work done to date by the national financial supervisory authorities, including the amendment to Bank Negara Malaysia anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing provisions in February 2018 to take into account the requirements for digital asset service providers.

In January 2019, the regulation on capital markets and services in Malaysia aimed at regulating both digital assets and exchange platforms entered into force. The order states that all digital assets offered as a form of investment or used as a fundraising method are classified as domestic securities.


Technical market overview:
After a failed attempt the rally above the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at $8,671, the BTC/USD pair has reversed towards the technical support located at the level of $8,048. This level is around the middle of the horizontal trading range located between the level of $8,760 - $7,700, so the price in now back to the range again. The momentum is flat and so is the price action at the beginning of the new trading week as the global investors await a clear breakout in either direction. Please notice the larger timeframe trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,781
WR2 - $9,248
WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198
WS1 - $7,675
WS2 - $7,127
WS3 - $6,590


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 11 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The chairman of the US Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) believes that Ether is a commodity and trading ETH futures will become a reality.

Heath Tarbert, the new president of CFTC, who took over the position of J. Christopher Giancarlo in July, presented his position on Ether, other cryptocurrencies and forked coins during the financial event Yahoo Finance Summit All Markets Summit.

Although the CFTC made it very clear that Bitcoin is a commodity, it is reported that for the first time the authority presented the vision of Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. In addition, as the publication notes, the chairman of the CFTC also expects to trade Ethereum futures contracts on US markets.

"We spoke clearly about Bitcoin: Bitcoin is a commodity. We have not spoken anything about Ether - until now. [...] In my opinion, as president of CFTC, Ether is a commodity," he said.

According to the publication, Tarbert acknowledges the existing uncertainty about the status of altcoins. He claimed, however, that similar digital assets should be treated in a similar way.

Tarbert suggested that forked cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin Cash or Ethereum Classic - those that are derived from the original underlying Blockchain - should be treated the same as the original assets. At the same time, the chair noted that the status of a forked coin could change if "the fork itself raises some issues with securities law as part of this classic Howey test."

"It is obvious that similar assets should be treated in a similar way. If the underlying asset, the original digital asset, was not specified as a security, and therefore is a commodity, most likely the forked resource will be the same," he said.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.88 and reversed immediately, hence the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern has been made. The bears are currently testing the local technical support located at the level of $185.05, but any violation of the level of $195.88 will lead to another leg up towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $202.70 and $215.73. The confirmation of the bottom of the wave (C) at the level of $151.30 will take place when bulls will break through the wave (B) top at the level of $223.50.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $200.05
WR2 - $192.33
WR1 - $180.15

Weekly Pivot - $172.02
WS1 - $159.46
WS2 - $151.65
WS3 - $138.64


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 11 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca after the US regulatory authorities rejected the Bitcoin ETF fund, confirmed that they would resubmit it. According to the published press release, the companies said that while the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the ETF application, they are happy about the progress.

The verdict on the ETF Bitwise proposal had many delays before the final decision that was made this week - the SEC had no choice under the laws and had to make it.

"We greatly appreciate the careful review of the SEC. The detailed feedback they provided provides a critical context and a clear path for ETF applicants to continue working on listing Bitcoin ETFs. [...] We look forward to further productive cooperation with the SEC to address their remaining concerns and we are going to resubmit the application as soon as it is appropriate "- we read.

Bitcoin markets, when news came about the last rejection of the application, remained stable. Earlier, Bitwise was particularly convinced that the application could be considered positive this time. "We're closer than ever to get Bitcoin ETF approval," Matt Hougan told major media on October 7.

Nevertheless, more than a year's dialogue with regulators was not for nothing, says the company, concluding:

"Although we have not been able to dispel SEC's concerns as part of the statutory 240-day review period that these reports provide, and although they have identified the need for additional data and context to interpret our key findings, we are pleased with the industry's progress and believe that thanks to additional research and further progress in the wider ecosystem, remaining concerns will be dispelled. "

In September, another ETF proposal, this time from VanEck and SolidX, was withdrawn by sponsors. At the same time, the SEC delayed its ruling on Wilshire Phoenix's third bid.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has hit 38% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at the level of $8,671 and reversed immediately. Despite the fact, that the new local high was made at the level of $8,759, the momentum is clearly decreasing, so if this will be the impulsive wave upward, then the low located at the level of $7,676 will be confirmed as the bottom for the wave (c) of wave (A) and the market will develop the wave (B) of the overall corrective move. Currently, the bears are preparing to test the technical support at the level of $8,282 and if this level is violated then the next support is located at the level of $8,102.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,064
WR2 - $8,729
WR1 - $8,221

Weekly Pivot - $7,955
WS1 - $7,433
WS2 - $7,138
WS3 - $6,572


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 10 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Donating cryptocurrency donations to political parties received the approval of Japanese Interior Minister and Communications Minister Sanae Takaichi at a press conference.

According to a local media report, Takaichi said political cryptocurrency donations do not have to be disclosed under the Political Funds Control Act, as opposed to cash and securities. Therefore, cryptographic donations can also be made without restrictions.

"Cryptographic resources are not subject to any of the above [regulations] and do not limit donations" - said the minister.

As cryptographic donations become more and more popular, Japanese political parties will have to deal with taxonomy and govern themselves, Takaichi continued. Because this will limit the political activity of politicians, the problem will be discussed by every party and group.

The Japanese cryptocurrency industry is strictly regulated by the Financial Services Agency (FSA), which did not approve any opening of exchanges in 2018 and only 16 in 2017.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of $185.05 and rallied up towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement that was violated as well. Currently, the bulls have managed to hit the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.88, but it might not be the end of the up move as the momentum is increasing. Any violation of the level of $195.88 will lead to another leg up towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $202.70 and $215.73. The confirmation of the bottom of the wave (C) at the level of $151.30 will take place when bulls will break through the wave (B) top at the level of $223.50.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $200.05
WR2 - $192.33
WR1 - $180.15

Weekly Pivot - $172.02
WS1 - $159.46
WS2 - $151.65
WS3 - $138.64


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

Attachment 1558



Attachment 1559
Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 10 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
European Commissioner for Finance, Valdis Dombrovskis, has promised to propose new regulations governing cryptocurrencies, such as Facebook Libra.

According to financial media reports, speaking to EU legislators, Dombrovskis said:

"Europe needs a common approach to crypto-assets such as Libra. I intend to propose new legislation in this area."

Dombrovskis, who was the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Latvia and a Member of the European Parliament in the years 2004–2009, is currently seeking reappointment as the Vice-President of the European Commission.

If he were re-appointed, he would be given the task of "an economy that works for the people" and would still be responsible for the Commission's financial services portfolio and its work on "deepening economic and monetary union", as emphasized by the chairwoman Ursula von der Leyen.

In addition to emphasizing the need for new legislation on cryptocurrencies in Europe, Dombrovskis spoke of the need for the EU to address "unfair competition, cybersecurity, and threats to financial stability".


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of $8,474 (now support) and made a fresh new local high at the level of $8,647. The momentum is increasing, so the next target for bulls after the breakout is done is seen at the level of $9,046. If this will be the impulsive wave upward, then the low located at the level of $7,676 will be confirmed as the bottom for the wave (c) of wave (A) and the market will develop the wave (B) of the overall corrective move.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,064
WR2 - $8,729
WR1 - $8,221

Weekly Pivot - $7,955
WS1 - $7,433
WS2 - $7,138
WS3 - $6,572


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sell zone for Bitcoin, important resistance on the test

BTC is did reach our yesterdays' target at the price of $8,050 but then rejected strongly. BTC is the momentum UP but resistance at the price of $8,500 is on the test and I would not watch for any upward opportunities as long as the resistance is on the test. BTC might rotate lower and test $8,320.



Red rectangle – Important resistance levels

Yellow rectangle – Resistance become support

Purple falling line – Expected path

Strong resistance at the price of $8,500 is on the test and I would prefer potential selling opportunities. Watch for potential sell divergence on the MACD oscillator on 15/30 time-frame to confirm further downside rotation. Resistance levels are seen at $8,500 and $8,800. The support level is set at the price of $8,300.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019