Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Gap area is holding so far, bulls in control
21 October 2019

To open long positions on Bitcoin you need:

At the moment, the task of the bulls is to keep trading above the gap area 7.960 and try to go towards the resistance levels at 8.447 and 8.900.


To open short positions on Gold you need:

Main task for bears will be to fill the gap at 7.950 and then eventually break the support 7.777. The first goal will be the potential test of 7.441 where I recommend profit taking.


Signals of indicators:

MACD – Momentum is not that big the still overall on positive side above the zero.

Bollinger bands: The upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 8.270 will act as resistance.







Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis on ETH/USD for 21 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
G20 global finance chiefs agree that global stablecoins pose a number of risks associated with public policy and regulatory risk.

On October 18, Reuters reported that the G20, an international forum for governments and central bank governors from 19 countries and the European Union, called on the International Monetary Fund to examine the various macroeconomic effects of global stablecoins, including the issue of monetary sovereignty in member countries.

According to the report, the nations agreed that global acceptance of Stablecoins would cause a number of serious threats to public order and regulation.

"Such threats, including in particular those related to money laundering, illegal financing and consumer and investor protection, must be assessed and properly addressed before implementing these projects," say G20 ministers.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the G20 summit will begin with a debate on stablecoin regulations - following proposals from global regulators such as the Financial Stability Board and the Task Force on Money Laundering.

"Some emerging countries are concerned about what could happen, stablecoins supported by a huge customer base have become widely used around the world [...] But this is not just a problem for emerging economies. This may have a broader impact on monetary policy and financial system stability, "he said.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still trading out of the main ascending channel and below the short-term trendline resistance. Currently, bulls are trying to break through the trendline around the level of $173.44 and even manage to make a spike above the trendline with a top at the level of $175.76. Will that be enough to continue a rally higher or is it just another false breakout? The next few hours might give the answer to market participants. Please keep an eye at the level of $163.98 because it is the key short term technical support for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $203.55
WR2 - $195.01
WR1 - $184.09

Weekly Pivot - $175.68
WS1 - $163.10
WS2 - $154.16
WS3 - $142.73


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Computer scientist and CEO of WeWork South Africa, Stafford Masie, said Bitcoin will change the future of humanity more than any other technological innovation.

In a speech at the SingularityU South Africa Masie Summit - formerly CEO of Google Africa - he said that the exchange of Bitcoin value without intermediaries is the greatest gift that humanity has ever received technologically.

He argued that although the cryptocurrency wallet is "misunderstood, misused, misrepresented and perceived as complicated," it will revolutionize global trade. He continued that his main potential was not developed and already highly digitized economies, nor in cash-dominated informal economies, but what he called "third economies" in which barter systems still dominate:

"The third economy is an economy where people do not have access to electronic forms of value or cash distribution [...] Think about people who live two hours outside of Shanghai, the central coast of China. They will use Bitcoins to trade and will unblock international transactions outside existing structures in a way you and I can't imagine, "he said.

Masie also tried to resolve basic misunderstandings about Bitcoin, such as the alleged possibility of hacking - emphasizing that "it is stock exchanges that can be hacked, not Bitcoin." By praising decentralization, Masie summarized the development of technology corporations as a breakthrough for global markets:

"Combined, the net asset value of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft represents the same value as the combined S&P 500 companies, and this is remarkable because we have never seen such a concentration of wealth in history. Combined, these companies have a value equal to product rates gross national in some countries ".


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced to the level of $8,255 after the short-term trendline resistance had been violated during the weekend. The pair have been dangerously close to the key technical support and wave (A) bottom after the failed rally above the 61% Fibonacci retracement, but now the bulls are regaining the control over the market. The immediate support is seen at the level of $8,048 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $8,474.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,074
WR2 - $8,707
WR1 - $8,444

Weekly Pivot - $8,103
WS1 - $7,849
WS2 - $7,474
WS3 - $7,245


Trading Recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 18 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
18 million Bitcoin is to be mined on Friday, which means that at the moment only three million Bitcoins remain to be mined.It is worth noting that so far 17,997,150 BTC has been extracted so far - according to the BitcoinBlockHalf data page - and the upper limit for the number of Bitcoins that will ever be encoded in the system is 21 million.

As the number of coins remaining to be secured by securing the Bitcoin chain is still decreasing, Bitcoin halving is also approaching. During the event, the amount of Bitcoins created with each new block will be halved.

BitcoinBlockHalf estimates that on May 14, 2020 - the date is uncertain given the bitcoin block time irregularity - the block reward will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 coins. The website also indicates that 85.7% of all coins have already been mined.

As the number of coins that still need to be extracted decreases, competition for them appears to be increasing. The Bitcoin hash rate has for the first time ever exceeded 102 quintillions.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair is still trading under the short-term trendline resistance and the trendline itself has been tested three times already. The move down has been initiated after the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made around the level of 38% of the Fibonacci retracement and since then the bears have been pushing the price lower and lower. Any violation of the level of $7,672 will invalidate the current Elliott wave scenario and make the whole corrective structure more complex and time-consuming.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,781
WR2 - $9,248
WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198
WS1 - $7,675
WS2 - $7,127
WS3 - $6,590

Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sell zone for BTC and bearish flag in creation
17 October 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of 8.052. There is still downside potential and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Downward target is set at the price of 7.723.



Green rectangle – Support levels

Purple lines – Bearish flag in creation

Purple falling line – Expected path

Based on the 4H time-frame, there is potential for another downward wave and test of 7.723. Middle Bollinger line (20SMA) acting like resistance and most recently, I found the doji candle just around the 20SMA, which is sign for the weak demand. Resistance levels are found at 8.107 and 8.170. Support is set at the price of 7.723.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 17 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bank of England CEO Mark Carney defended Facebook's choice to create a new currency. He highlighted the disadvantages of the current traditional financial system. Due to inefficiencies in payments, Carey believes that companies like Facebook should be involved in projects like Libra.

More specifically, he criticized the high costs of moving money, claiming that they penalize small businesses and can cost up to 200 basis points per transaction, except that they are processed too slowly.

"This is not enough these days. These payments should be immediate, they should be the same as for online banknote exchanges. They should be practically cost-free and 100% resistant" - he said.

Carney acknowledges that the problem can be solved in many ways, and notes that the challenge is "to bring online and other payments to the level that is found in many large emerging economies and several advanced economies."

However, he also warned companies that want to try to solve this problem, noting that changes in space will be thoroughly investigated by the authorities.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $170.50 after falling out of the ascending channel. The downside momentum is clearly accelerating which is a not signal for bulls. The key technical resistance is still located at the level of $196.61 and only a clear and dynamic breakout higher will open the road towards the next target at $202.70 and $215.73. If there is no move up back to the channel, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $163.98 which is the next major support for the price.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $223.04
WR2 - $209.75
WR1 - $194.13

Weekly Pivot - $180.64
WS1 - $164.92
WS2 - $151.12
WS3 - $135.26


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The former head of the US regulatory authority believes that the government must digitize the dollar and take power from central banks.

In a press release, J. Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC, argued that the dollar could lose its status in the future. This is due in particular to the fact that other countries are introducing digital currencies. He argued that the answer was to create a new form of a dollar.

"We propose a digital dollar - a blockchain protocol sanctioned by the government, created and maintained by an independent non-governmental group, but administered by banks and other trusted payment organizations. The funds entered into the system would be exchanged for digital US dollars on the Blockchain, with the funds being kept on special trust accounts kept by the Federal Reserve, "he explains.

Unlike many banking sources that discussed the digital currency, the concept of the digital dollar directly points to the decentralization of power over money. While refraining from claiming that central banks should lose their ability to control national currencies, Giancarlo says that by avoiding the digital currency, the US will weaken the dollar's attractiveness.

"Significant entities, including central banks and social media platforms, may introduce new currencies in the next few years. As the network develops, they may eventually destroy the status of the dollar as the most popular currency on the international market," he warned.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair keeps moving lower this week and currently is very close to the key technical support level located at $7,672. The move down has been initiated after the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made around the level of 38% of the Fibonacci retracement and since then the bears have been pushing the price lower and lower. Any violation of the level of $7,672 will invalidate the current Elliott wave scenario and make the whole corrective structure more complex and time-consuming.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,781
WR2 - $9,248
WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198
WS1 - $7,675
WS2 - $7,127
WS3 - $6,590


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 16 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The United Arab Emirates Securities and Commodity Office (SCA) has published draft regulations on cryptographic assets.

According to an official statement, SCA will collect public feedback on draft regulations by October 29 before submitting the final draft regulation on the industry.

The Authority noted that all parties involved in the cryptographic industry, including investors, brokers, financial analysts, researchers, the media and others, are invited to provide feedback on the document, adding that the proposals will be considered in the final regulation.

As noted in the statement, the project consists of 28 parts covering all aspects of the cryptographic asset industry in the United Arab Emirates, including token issuer requirements, security and trust policies, investor protection and anti-financial crime measures, information security controls, and management standards technology.

According to the authority, once regulations have been implemented, market participants will be able to ask SCA for guidance on specific parts of the industry and regulatory requirements through the electronic services system.

SCA had already announced plans to introduce ICO regulations in this country by the end of the first quarter of 2019. The office's general director, Obad Al Zaabi, then noticed a significant need for ICO registration and licenses, and local media reported that SCA would work with the stock exchange securities in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai financial market to develop a platform for trading ICO tokens.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken the lower boundary line of the parallel ascending channel and now is testing the level of $176.08. The downside momentum is slightly accelerating which is a not signal for bulls. The key technical resistance is still located at the level of $196.61 and only a clear and dynamic breakout higher will open the road towards the next target at $202.70 and $215.73. If there is no move up back to the channel, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $163.98.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $223.04
WR2 - $209.75
WR1 - $194.13

Weekly Pivot - $180.64
WS1 - $164.92
WS2 - $151.12
WS3 - $135.26


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 October 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Tim Draper, a billionaire investor, said he expects Bitcoin - in combination with other technologies - will change the way governments operate around the world.

In a published post on social media, Draper calls Bitcoin the "starting currency" and praises its decentralization and boundless nature, saying that he believes that BTC will unite the world:

"Thanks to Bitcoin and decentralization associated with Bitcoin, geographical boundaries have become less important. We are no longer at the mercy of dictators and paid trolls to develop the global economy. [...] In the long term, I believe that when it comes to business and economy, we are one world more than ever before, "he said.

Draper also accuses those who reject Bitcoin saying he is sticking to tribalism and repeats the belief that "tribalism is dying." He also compares attempts to maintain power to the roar of a falling king:

"Tribalism is dying. And like the roar of the dying king of the jungle, we hear political leaders beating their chest as they try to hold on to the power they once had when the world was only tribal."

Draper also describes the idea of a global health insurance policy - which is more effective and efficient than current offers - "where contributions are in Bitcoins and claims are settled in writing using intelligent contracts and monitored by artificial intelligence."

He also explains his vision of retirement, which does not depend on the decision of political leaders, but "is simply a form of a permanent smart contract."


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has started to test the technical support located at the level of $8,048 after a failed rally towards $9,000. This level is around the middle of the horizontal trading range located between the levels of $8,760 - $7,700, so it is important for bulls to defend it. The momentum is rather flat and the global investors await a clear breakout in either direction. Please notice the larger timeframe trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,781
WR2 - $9,248
WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198
WS1 - $7,675
WS2 - $7,127
WS3 - $6,590


Trading recommendations:
Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Watch for breakout of the HSS pattern to confirm further downside
15 October 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of 8.300. I still expect more downside movement and potential test of 8.072 and 7.7750.



Red rectangle – Resistance

Greene rectangle – Support levels

Purple falling line – Expected path

Bitcoin is still trading in the trading range regime and consolidation mode. Anyhow, there are patterns that suggest more downside. Most recently, I found the potential head and shoulders pattern in creation, which might lead BTC downside. The breakout of 8.200 will confirm eventual test of 8.072 and 7.750.

Major resistance is seen at 8.800.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019