Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The self-appointed Bitcoin creator, Craig Wright, showed, he claims a document that explains the origin of the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto.

In a press interview, Wright showed a document presenting an article from the JSTOR digital academic journal database of January 5, 2008. The article is about a person named Tominaga Nakamoto who lived in Japan between 1715 and 1746. The document also contained the following handwritten notes:

"Nakamoto is the Japanese Adam Smith. Honest Ledger + Micro Cash. Satoshi is Intelligent History. Not too much."

According to Wright, he chose the name Nakamoto in honor of Tominagi Nakamoto. A handwritten note compares him to Adam Smith, who is considered by many to be the father of modern economics. Asked if Nakamoto's economic ideas were the reason he chose his name, he replied:

"In part, yes. He wrote about money and fair money, and about the rational nature of things. The shogun [feudal ruler] was in financial crisis and economic hardship at the time. [...] I like his description and I found his brother, Toka. "Nakamoto was upright and calm but impatient," and I thought, "Sounds like me."

As for the nickname's first word, Satoshi, Wright says it means "intelligent learning." He explains that he refers to a person who has access to the knowledge acquired by his ancestors.

While Wright claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, he also announced in November that he could not finance a settlement of 500,000 Bitcoins ($ 3.7 billion) in a case that had initiated Kleiman's assets against him. Dave Kleiman was an expert in cybersecurity, whom many consider being one of the first creators of Bitcoin and Blockchain technology. He died in April 2013.

Kleiman's property, run by David's brother Ira Kleinman, initiated the case last February, accusing Wright of stealing hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins - worth over $ 5 billion - after the death of the developer.

It is known that Satoshi Nakamoto extracted the origin blocks on Bitcoin Blockchain, the so-called Satoshi blocks, and therefore should have a significant number of coins on his address.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair is still being controlled by the bears and every attempt to rally is quickly being used to sell more Bitcoins. The global investors have seen this kind of market behavior through all the holidays, as the local high was made at the level of $7,371 and then the price was pushed down and is currently trading close to the technical support located at the level of $7,078. Any violation of this level will lead to another wave down targeting the level of $7,028 or even $6,938.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,907
WR2 - $8,106
WR1 - $7,862

Weekly Pivot - $7,117
WS1 - $6,770
WS2 - $6,071
WS3 - $5,771


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC 12.26.2019 - Important Fibonacci confluence resistance is set at $7.305, watch for selling opportuntiies near this zone

Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $7.192. I found multi-Fibonacci resistance pivot at the price of $7.305-$7.336, which is good zone for selling opportunities. I do expect down cycle and potential test of $7.075.



Stochastic oscillator is showing bull cross and my advice is to watch for fresh bear cross before you place sell order.

Resistance levels are seen at the price of $7.235 and $7.305

Support levels are set at $7.158 and $7.075 (main downward target)





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Is it worth buying Bitcoin next year and how much will it cost?

Greetings to crypto enthusiasts, here comes the end of 2019, how many things happened, and even more that did not happen, so here are the details. The "holy" forecasts of many market gurus about the movement of Bitcoin prices towards the $50,000-$100,000 marks did not even closely match, but, I think, ordinary sane traders did not expect such a development. In principle, not everything was so bad as in 2018, if you look at the Bitcoin movement in detail, then 2019 gave a solid income, and this is not a joke. The highest income since the beginning of the year was 300%, and for the current day, taking into account the correction, it is approximately 110%, which, by the way, is greater than in the foreign exchange and stock markets. Thus, there was an opportunity to earn, but, in connection with a considerable fear in the form of a repetition of 2018, few people managed to take full advantage of the situation, but I do not exclude that true traders took their profit from the market.


What was in terms of the foundation of the crypto industry?

Many projects, exchanges that appeared on the 2017-2018 hype, finally fell apart in 2019, which to some extent cleaned the industry from garbage. At the beginning of the year [2019], a new hype appeared in the form of IEO [Initial Exchange Offerings, the primary exchange offer], which was headed by the Binance exchange and, to some extent, again set the drive for the market. Like any hype, IEO died just as fast as the ICO [Initial coin offering], and the market began to fade again.

In terms of jurisprudence, the leading economies of the world continue to consider cryptocurrency a surrogate, but still try to figure it out. In turn, the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] continues to pull the strap, delaying the launch of the bitcoin-ETF, citing all the same reasons: the lack of an appropriate legal framework; risk of laundering; high volatility of bitcoin; data exchange, etc. In turn, representatives of the US Congress in the person of Paul Gosar proposed a bill providing for the separation of functions for regulating digital currencies between several departments, which may facilitate the task of a sacred understanding of the industry.

Digest of the last days:

• The People's Bank of China announced the completion of work on a digital analogue of the renminbi. The digital RMB electronic payment system has already been tested. The next step is the launch of a pilot program in commercial banks in China, through which the digital yuan will be distributed among the citizens of the country.

• Crypto enthusiast Larry Chermak conducted a study and found that 95% of all cryptocurrencies are already depreciated and their value is zero, since they have zero liquidity. He studied not only the volume of exchange trading, but also the depth of their orders, the data of which is more difficult to fake. With the exception of stablecoins, of all crypto assets, only twenty currencies have liquidity. Bitcoin has the highest rate. If we consider its analysis in descending order, then the list of currencies looks like this: Bitcoin; Ethereum; EOS Litecoin XRP; Bitcoin Cash BSV TRON; ETC NEO; BNB; Monero Dash Zcash Chainlink Sellar Cardano; Dogecoin; Huobi Token; Tezos.

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani proposed creating a cryptocurrency for Muslim countries as an alternative to the US dollar. He believes that the Muslim world needs a different tool to counter US economic sanctions.




What awaits us in 2020?

To begin with, according to the fifth European Union anti-money laundering directive, from January 10, 2020, new rules will come into force that all blockchain projects located in the EU should adhere to - a link to the document. So, according to the new rules, projects will be required to register with supervisory authorities, identify their customers and pass on the addresses of user wallets to the authorities. The consequences of the innovation are not difficult to predict, many small startups simply will not be able to get along, which will lead to a change of jurisdiction to other countries. Large projects will feel the pressure that will affect existing users within the ecosystem. It is worthwhile to understand that the European Union is not doing anything catastrophic, this completely normal norm of vision is active, just the ideology of the crypto industry is built according to a different law, which contradict the well-known, but this is for the time being.

In turn, the US Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC] will once again decide to approve or refuse the Bitcoin-ETF on February 26, 2020, but with a 95% probability we will hear the refusal all for the same reasons. Regarding the Bitcoin-ETF, I suppose that 2020 will not be able to give complete results, because the regulator does not have a complete understanding of control and regulation, and if the demand for cryptocurrencies continues to fall, the process will go to arbitrary infinity.


Forecasts for 2020 and not only - an excursion according to the expectations of world experts

• Silk Road DarkNet service founder Ross Ulbricht once again announced Bitcoin's upside potential to $100,000, citing Elliott wave analysis. So, he believes that the past waves had impulses in themselves: 1 wave - from $0.06 to $32; 3 wave - from $2 to $1240; 5th wave - started from $175 and continues to this day, that is, its prospect, in comparison with previous waves, is in the region of $100,000.

• The well-known McAffee continues to shout about growth, although his earlier predictions, frankly, did not match. This time he is certain that by the end of 2020 the first cryptocurrency will grow ten times, he did not provide any arguments, thereby his goal is to once again draw attention to himself and no more.

• Former chief executive officer of one of the largest exchanges in China [BTCC] and just a veteran of the crypto industry, Bobby Lee believes that next year Bitcoin can easily update record highs and reach such a mark as $60,000. He suggests that, in connection with the upcoming Halving Bitcoin, the demand for the first cryptocurrency can significantly increase. His judgment is more sensible in comparison with the two predictions before him, and so, the halving process entails the complication of BTC production by halving the reward to miners. A decrease in the emission rate can directly affect the rate of Bitcoin.

• The cult personality Nassim Taleb, the author of such a bestseller as The Black Swan, believes that a decrease in people's confidence in the banking system and state authorities will lead to the fact that the crypto industry can no longer be ignored, and even if the cryptocurrency price drops, it will still be used.

• Experts from the research division of the BitMEX exchange forecast that in 2020 the BTC will trade in the range of $2,000-$15,000, and the Bitcoin dominance index will not exceed 75%.

• Bloomberg analysts, together with Deutsche Bank experts, believe that the instability of the financial system caused by a potential recession and further problems of US-Chinese trade relations may lead to an increase in demand for the first cryptocurrency in 2020.


As we can see from the above forecasts, many experts expect great growth, just do not forget that in order for 2017 to repeat, the market needs another influx of new traders with real [non-virtual] money. Otherwise, we will see the flow of an asset from one crypto trader to another, and the Bitcoin rate will tirelessly continue to decline.






Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Paul Gosar, an Arizona congressman, presented a bill ultimately aimed at ensuring regulatory transparency of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States, according to an article by Forbes. The 2020 Cryptocurrency Act sets out which federal agencies should regulate each type of crypto asset.

One of the key things introduced by the bill is the definition of three types of cryptographic assets; cryptocurrency goods, cryptocurrencies, and crypto securities.

Cryptocurrency goods are defined as economic goods or services, stored on Blockchain, convertible and which the market serves regardless of who produced them.

Cryptocurrencies are defined as representations of the US currency or Blockchain-based synthetic derivatives. This includes reserve-secured stablecoins and currencies identified by decentralized oracles or smart contracts.

Crypto-securities include all debt, equity and derivative instruments in the Blockchain chain, other than those that are serviced and registered as money complaint companies.

Each type of crypto-asset would fall under the jurisdiction of another regulatory authority that would act as a "Federal cryptographic regulator" or "Federal regulator of digital resources" for this type. Unsurprisingly, the Futures Commissions Commission (CFTC) would be the agency responsible for cryptocurrency goods, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would deal with crypto securities. FinCEN would then be left to settle cryptocurrencies.

Although it remains to be seen how far the bill will go, it will probably receive support from the cryptocurrency industry, which has been demanding clarity for some time.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has moved higher towards the level of $136.98, but made a local high only at the level of $134.16 so far and is trading currently around the Weekly Pivot located at the level of $129.41. The move-up has been so far made only in three waves, so it is a typical counter-trend move and might terminate soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $127.91 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $136.98.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $170.20
WR2 - $155.54
WR1 - $143.98

Weekly Pivot - $129.41
WS1 - $117.21
WS2 - $102.45
WS3 - $89.76


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the downtrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin users who use the CoinJoin privacy protection tool to increase the anonymity of their transactions face a serious warning after the Binance exchange has frozen a withdrawal request.

In an ongoing Twitter debate that began on December 19, a user named Catxolotl submitted the information that appeared to correspond with employees of Binance Singapore stating that they had initiated an "investigation" regarding the withdrawal of an unknown amount of Bitcoins.

They said the reason was the use of CoinJoin by Catxolotl through the wallet provider Wasabi. CoinJoin refers to the method of grouping Bitcoin transactions, "mixing" UTXO (unspent transaction outputs) and hiding who sent to which address in order to increase the privacy of all users.

According to Binance, including CEO Changpeng Zhao (known as "CZ"), regulations in Singapore meant that CoinJoin transactions were no longer desirable.

However, at this time Binance Singapore does not tolerate any transactions directly and indirectly related to gambling, P2P, and especially Darknet / Mixer sites.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made another wave up with a temporary high located at the level of $7,581. It means, the price has broken back to the channel and broke through the brown trend line resistance. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle and might soon be testing the nearest technical support located at the level of $7,389. The moves up should be continued once the correction is over. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,710.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,907
WR2 - $8,106
WR1 - $7,862

Weekly Pivot - $7,117
WS1 - $6,770
WS2 - $6,071
WS3 - $5,771


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The US Securities Commission has announced that it is looking for ways to expand the "accredited investor" classification, which may have serious implications for capital creation by companies that are not determined to meet the full public reporting requirements.

According to the announcement published on the SEC website, the regulatory authority is awaiting opinions on changes in its category of accredited investor. Currently, the SEC defines an accredited investor as a person with assets over USD 1 million or an entity controlling assets worth over USD 5 million. Other classification methods include being a board member of a company making an offer.

The question of who qualifies as an accredited investor has long been controversial. SEC's exemptions allow companies to offer shares to such investors without having to meet all requirements. Theoretically, this is to protect everyday investors from predatory offers, but criticism of these classifications says that such exclusions simply help the rich get rich while prohibiting investors from making money.

The new changes would basically open the classification for new investors, including those whose professional qualifications and certificates suggest that they have sufficient knowledge to invest in private offers. Similarly, "competent employees" may have the same access to their companies' offers as management currently has.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD has made a low at the level of $115.05 that ended up in a form of a Pin Bar/ Hammer candlestick pattern and might be labeled as a bottom for the wave (C) of the wave 2. Then the up wave has extended the move to the level of $133.62 and it was terminated by Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. From the Elliott wave point of view, it means the end of the corrective cycle at the mentioned level and a possibility for a new uptrend to start unfolding soon. So far, the bulls have managed to hit the level of $130.60 with a high made just at the level of the lower channel line at $133.62. If the uptrend resumes, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $139.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $160.13
WR2 - $155.12
WR1 - $147.83

Weekly Pivot - $142.21
WS1 - $135.13
WS2 - $130.72
WS3 - $123.35


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the downtrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Iranian president proposed the creation of a Muslim cryptocurrency as one of many ways to oppose US economic dominance.

Speaking at an Islamic conference in Malaysia, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on Muslim nations to strengthen financial and trade cooperation and to reduce dependence on the US dollar, according to a report by the financial media.

As Rouhani argued, US economic sanctions are "the main tools for dominating hegemony and intimidation" of other nations. Rouhani proposed establishing a special banking and financial system among Muslim nations that use local currencies to trade. Local reports confirm that Rouhani proposed creating a cryptocurrency as part of this effort.

"The Muslim world should develop measures to protect against the dominance of the US dollar and the US financial regime," he said.

The conference was also attended by leaders of major Muslim countries, including Turkey, Qatar and Malaysia, while Saudi Arabia and Pakistan withdrew from the conference.

The idea of the Iranian president has reportedly met with support from Malaysia itself, because the country's prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, supported the initiative, according to a local press release. The official noted that for the first time Iran and Turkey are considering the possibility of creating an alternative to the US dollar.

"We can use our own currencies or have a common currency," he said.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clearly criticized the Islamic Cooperation Organization, arguing that the platform connecting the Muslim world has shown "lack of implementation." Erdogan also emphasized that Muslim countries should focus on Islamic financing, suggesting the creation of a special working group.


Technical Market Overview:
From the Elliott wave point of view, the last impulsive rally might be labeled as wave 1 of the new upward move. If it is so, then the most important level is the low of the Pin Bar located at $6,365 and this level can not be violated by bears. Currently, the market is developing the corrective structure and it is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range located between the levels of $6,938 - $7,162. The moves up should be continued once the correction is over.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,020
WR2 - $7,786
WR1 - $7,335

Weekly Pivot - $7,151
WS1 - $6,714
WS2 - $6,500
WS3 - $6,073


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC 12.19.2019 - Important pivot support at the price of $7.020, watch for potential breakout

Industry news:
Bitcoin was on a downward spiral before the December 18-19 pump provided it a boost in the market. After entering the holiday month, BTC had lost a little over 13% of its value and was trading close to $6,500. However, the coin has been in rough waters since its June 2019 high and many within the community speculate that the price has been held down by PlusToken scammers liquidating at $2 billion worth of BTC. However, on 19 December, Whale Alert alerted the community about Ethereum [ETH] worth $105.1 million being moved from the PlusToken wallet to an unknown wallet.


Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading upwards in the past 24 hours. Anyway, the price is near the critical support at $7.020 and it is good to watch for potential price action around the support.

Downside breakout of the $7.020 would confirm test of $6.900-$6.800

MACD slow line turned bearish, which is good sign that sellers took control from buyers.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 18 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Two Russian citizens are prosecuted for allegedly attacking computers in state organizations for the illegal extraction of cryptocurrencies.

Two unknown people allegedly infected the equipment with a program that extracts cryptocurrencies using a web browser, according to a local media agency.

Apparently one of the suspects, a resident of the city of Kurgan, created an extensive botnet for infecting computers in various regions of the country. A second suspect reportedly focused his mining operations on equipment at the state-owned water company JSC Rostovvodokanal.

The illegal use of computer computing power to mine cryptocurrencies without the owner's consent or knowledge is sometimes called crypto-jacking. Although the news agency does not disclose the details of the cryptocurrency extracted by two suspects, malicious software such as coinminer - based on the Coinhive code - is one example of a widespread program designed for the illegal extraction of Monero via a web browser.

"(...) up to 80% of the free computer power can be used to generate virtual coins, and a legal user may not even know about it," said Nikolay Murashov, deputy director of the Russian National Center for Co-ordination of Computer Incidents in a press conference.

Murashob emphasized that this illegal use of computing power can adversely affect business operations and harm companies' performance, warning organizations before implementing appropriate cybersecurity measures.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD has made another wave down and so far the low was made at the level of $118.65. If the bearish pressure won't stop, then the next main target for bears is seen at the level of $116.00. The complex corrective cycle is still unfolding to the downside and the global investors should wait for it to terminate. In the meantime, the downtrend continues lower, but soon the bulls might test the nearest technical resistance located at the level of $127.91.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $160.13
WR2 - $155.12
WR1 - $147.83

Weekly Pivot - $142.21
WS1 - $135.13
WS2 - $130.72
WS3 - $123.35


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the downtrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 18 December 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Cryptocurrency entrepreneur John McAfee says he will stop promoting single coins to focus on his presidential campaign - despite the certainty that he will not win.

In a series of tweets starting on December 14, McAfee, which gained a lot of support from cryptocurrency users, argued that supporting individual projects in space took too much time. "I don't do cryptographic promotions anymore," one post summarized.

Elsewhere, McAfee wanted to notice that he was not completely withdrawing from cryptocurrency space:

"People are asking why I don't promote Blockchain anymore. My presidential campaign will start for good in January and I can't do both. I am not giving up cryptography in any way; just the task of promoting specific projects."

When asked for more information, the tycoon nevertheless expressed doubts about its non-cryptographic outlook. When asked if he felt he could win as a candidate in the US presidential election in 2020, he replied, "I have no chance."

Despite getting mixed reviews of cryptocurrency project support in the past, McAfee is probably best known for its outrageous Bitcoin price forecasts.

He infamously bet that the price of Bitcoin would exceed $ 1 million by the end of 2020 and said that if he made a mistake he would eat his own penis. During the last round on Twitter, McAfee said the bet was "absolutely" still valid.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair made another leg down that so far ended at the level of $6,488. There was another Pin Bar candlestick pattern made around the level of $7,133 and since then the bears are trying to take back the control over the market and are pushing the prices lower. The bearish pressure is increasing and more downside is to be expected, targeting the level of $6,466 (the November low) and below. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,642.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,020
WR2 - $7,786
WR1 - $7,335

Weekly Pivot - $7,151
WS1 - $6,714
WS2 - $6,500
WS3 - $6,073


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019