Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 4, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
China's actions regarding the central bank's digital currency (CBDC) show no signs of slowing down. Updated October 2021 results were revealed during Hong Kong Fintech Week.

The digital Yuan (e-CNY) to replace cash in day-to-day transactions is gaining ground with both individuals and businesses, according to Mu Changchun, head of the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Speaking at the conference, Mu said the number of individual digital accounts has reached 140 million, while corporations have created another 10 million accounts.

While the official launch date for e-CNY is still unclear, China continues to extend the rollout of trial versions to over a dozen regions. With a wide range of vendors, from utilities, catering and transportation services to retail and government services accepting CBDCs, $ 62bn. Yuan ($ 9.7 billion) was spent using e-CNY wallets in October 2021, reports Reuters.

The executive director of PBoC has also detailed the different types of e-CNY portfolios. A basic wallet with an annual transaction limit of 50,000 Yuan ($ 7,800) only requires a phone number to activate. If users want to open an e-CNY wallet with unlimited transactions, they need to go to the cashier with a personal ID.

China is aiming to completely replace cash payments with digital Yuan, and as of April 2020, the country has continued extensive testing in major cities. Chinese CBDC is controlled, tracked and registered in smartphone applications by the Chinese government.


Technical Market Outlook
After the BTC/USD pair has broken above the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $62,000, the bears had tested it from above and bounced back up towards the level of $63,000. The market made a local low at the level of $60,218 during an increased volatility period. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $64,920 and $66,970 (ATH). On the other hand, the first Fibonacci retracement level, the 38% level, is seen at $56,934. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $70,127
WR2 - $66,705
WR1 - $64,387

Weekly Pivot - $60,937
WS1 - $58,287
WS2 - $54,685
WS3 - $52,480


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $66,974 (the previous ATH level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 4, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Francis Suarez, who has served as Mayor of Miami since 2017, said he intended to receive another payout of full Bitcoin.

In a Twitter post, Suarez said he intends to become the first US lawmaker at state or federal level to accept his Bitcoin salary. Public data shows that the Miami Mayor's salary was $ 97,000 per year in 2016-2017, meaning he was receiving a monthly salary of over $ 8,000 or 0.13 BTC at a price of $ 63,404, assuming residents did not vote to increase his salary for public services. Suarez said he would rather use an app like Bitwage or Strike than let local authorities convert his fiat payout into cryptocurrency.

The declaration came on the morning of the US election. While many federal office posts will not be open until mid-2022, local and state offices, including the Mayor of Miami, will be put to the vote. Suarez is the favorite among six nonpartisan candidates.

Mayor Suarez, who said he owns both Bitcoin and Ethereum, spoke out loud about his intentions to turn Miami into a crypto hub with "the most progressive cryptocurrency laws" in the United States. Many companies and events in the crypto space have been drawn to the region, including the Bitcoin 2021 conference in June.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has made a new, but marginal ATH at the level of $4,669 after the break out from the channel. The next target for bulls is 100% Fibonacci extension seen at the level of $4,717. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,459 and the key short-term technical support is currently located at the level of $4,146. The larger time frame trend remains up and the outlook for the rest of the trading week is bullish. Please notice, the market conditions are now extremely overbought in the short-term.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,137
WR2 - $4,787
WR1 - $4,556

Weekly Pivot - $4,216
WS1 - $3,997
WS2 - $3,650
WS3 - $3,426



Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on November 05 - 08, 2021: sell below 4,527 (SMA21)



Since November 3, Ether has been consolidating and forming a bullish pennant technical pattern. This technical figure is a sign of a probable strong bullish move that could push ETH to the psychological level of 5,000 in the next few days.

On the contrary, as Ethereum consolidates below the 21 SMA, it is likely to continue the correction movement and could eventually weaken to the support of 6/8 murray around 4,375. A sharp break and a daily close below this support zone could accelerate the decline to the 200 EMA around 3,991.

The optimism and euphoria of the cryptocurrency market faded when on November 4, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank would begin to reduce its monetary stimulus, So, the regulator will scale back its bond purchases by $15 billion per month.

Investors seems to be unwilling to buy EHT above the all-time high of $ 4,665. On the contrary, we believe that as long as EHT remains below the strong resistance of the 21 SMA (4,527), the crypto could continue oscillating and make a technical correction with the aim of accumulating more sellers. ETH could fall to the support of the uptrend channel around 4,120 or 5/8 murray at 4,062. This zone is a psychological level, giving us an opportunity to buy ETH again.

Our trading idea for the next few hours is to watch the key level of 4,527. Below this level, ETH is likely to continue its decline. So, we will have an opportunity to sell with targets at 4,375 and up to 4,125.

Conversely, if ETH makes a sharp breakout and confirms the bullish pennant pattern, it will be an opportunity to buy above 4,560 with targets up to 7/8 murray around 4,687 and up to the psychological level of $ 5,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 05 - 08, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,687
Resistance (2) 4,615
Resistance (1) 4,542

Support (1) 4,418
Support (2) 4,375
Support (3) 4,316


A trading tip for ETH for November 05 - 08, 2021
Sell below 4,527 (SMA 21) with take profit at 4,375 and 4,112 (bottom of uptrend channel), stop loss above 4,660.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin rallies due to inflation and the Fed


Many people have been talking about this lately, including JP Morgan. And today this relationship was confirmed by billionaire Peter Thiel. In light of the recent rally of the main cryptocurrency and its current trading near $60,000, he is pessimistic about the prospects for the global economy.


While the Fed condones inflation, investors are going to Bitcoin

Thiel rebukes the Fed for not coping well with a problem that could snowball into a larger crisis.

The growing threat of inflation has been cited more than once as the reason for the significant adoption of cryptocurrency in 2021. The founder of Paypal believes that the global economy is already knee-deep in crisis, and this is especially striking when you look at the recent BTC prices.


Is it all about the Fed?

Thiel, whose statements we will consider as bitcoin continues to technically decline in the triangle, largely blames the American Central Bank. The investor believes that the Fed is in a "closed" state as a result of its seemingly narrow-minded approach to this issue.

There have been a lot of criticisms lately from cryptocurrency enthusiasts for allegedly printing money "without limits," especially with the proposed $2 trillion stimulus package. The inflationary implications of such a move are already being discussed in cryptocurrency circles.


"Canary in the coal mine"

This is what Thiel recently called Bitcoin, explaining that its price is a good indicator of what is happening in the economy now. If investors are fleeing traditional assets and even gold, then things are not going well. Does this mean that as soon as the Fed starts raising rates, Bitcoin will fall? I think you shouldn't get ahead of yourself so much because it is unlikely to happen quickly. The American central bank, like many others, is likely to fail to curb inflation quickly.

On Wednesday, the Fed began to taper QE. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke very carefully about the rate hike. And the Bank of England on Thursday did not raise the rate, despite the off-scale inflationary pressure.

According to October data, the annual inflation rate in the United States reached 5.4%. In 2020, the average inflation rate was fixed at 1.2%.

Given the current caution of world central banks in tightening monetary policy due to the employment situation, prices will continue to rise for a long time. At the same time, the emergence of new instruments such as Bitcoin ETFs will intensify the flight into digital assets.


Don't forget the side triangle

Meanwhile, the technical benchmarks for BTCUSD have not changed. The hypothetical triangle and the consolidation range 59,383.67 - 62,637.96 inside it are still relevant. There is still a reserve of motion to the lower boundaries of the figures, and, possibly, after the weekend, there will be more clarity on the issue of the further medium-term direction of the main cryptocurrency.









Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Breaks Into US Politics: New York Mayor Eric Adams and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez Receive Bitcoin Salaries



New York City Mayor-elect Eric Adams told his constituents that he plans to receive his first three salaries as New York City Mayor in Bitcoin.

The new mayor of New York is confident that Bitcoin is the future, he wants to make New York the center of cryptocurrency and digital finance. Adams supports the baton started by Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who is ready to receive his salary in Bitcoin.

Adams took this to Twitter and said: "New York is a city for advanced and modern citizens. We are always ready to move towards global innovation, digitalization, and great success, so I am ready to receive my first three salaries in Bitcoin. New York will now become a mecca for fast-growing, innovative industries."

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez was a pioneer in US politics who is fully prepared to receive his salary in Bitcoin. Suarez is confident he can make Miami a digital city.

Eric Adams is due to take over as mayor of New York on January 1, and it is not yet entirely clear how he will receive his salary in bitcoin at the legislative level, so a special expert group will be assembled to resolve this issue, which will deal with this issue.

This is very big news for the entire crypto market, if such world centers as New York and Miami give the green light to Bitcoin, then everything can begin to scale after them.

After Bill de Blasio leaves office, Eric Adams wants to make the city not anti-business, but crypto-directed and digitalized.

Adams loves the competition between Miami and New York, and he is pleased that cities like these are giving the green light to crypto technology. However, New York Attorney General Laetitia James can put a spoke in his wheels.

She has previously begun to take serious reprisals against unregistered cryptocurrency companies in New York, James also submitted her candidacy for the governor of New York.

Miami also began to develop at an even more accelerated pace after Mayor Suarez accepted his Bitcoin salary.

Miami hosted the largest cryptocurrency conference, Miami Coin, and the city received over $7 million. Anthony Pompliano became like water, and earlier said that American politicians should accept payments in cryptocurrency.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin vulnerable to a move towards $54,000


Bitcoin recently got rejected at the horizontal resistance at $63,500 and is now challenging the short-term support at $60,500. Bitcoin has the potential for another pull back towards $54,000, similar to the decline from $66,900 to $57,000.



Red rectangle -horizontal resistance

Red lines - Fibonacci extension targets

Blue line- short-term support

Bitcoin is trading around $60,800. Price has made no real progress over the last couple of days. In order for Bitcoin to continue to new all time highs, bulls will need to recapture the $63,500 level and stay above it. On the other hand, price seems vulnerable to a pull back towards $57,000 and lower. Price is now testing the short-term support trend line shown in blue in the chart above. Breaking below the support trend line will be a sign of weakness and I expect more downside to follow.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

How will the results of the Fed meeting affect the prospects for bitcoin?



The bullish trend is alive.

Bitcoin has been trying to restore an upward movement over the past few weeks. And it cannot be said that it was unsuccessful. The current growth of bitcoin is not as strong as before, but it occurs very close to the local and absolute maxima of the value of the cryptocurrency. And when the price is near its absolute highs, it doesn't matter what force the movement is. Moreover, the whole last segment of the trend looks very "hype". Once again, we remind you that there were no local reasons for the growth of cryptocurrency. Or at least there weren't any to grow from $ 29,000 to $ 67,000. At the same time, an ascending channel was formed, fixing below which may indicate a new round of downward correction. Also, the movement of recent weeks is very similar to the flat, but with a minimal upward bias. Thus, all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator are not valid now.


The Fed has started curtailing QE. What does this mean for Bitcoin?

For bitcoin, this means two things at once. Firstly, inflation will decrease over time. At least, that's what I want to believe, and that's what Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and many Fed representatives assure us. And since inflation will decrease, other, less profitable, but also less risky instruments will become more attractive to investors. Consequently, an outflow of investments from the cryptocurrency market may begin. Second, a reduction in QE means that the cash flows sent to the economy will be reduced. And if so, the flow of investments into the cryptocurrency market will also decrease. Of course, the quantitative incentive program will gradually decrease over the course of 8 months. Therefore, until the summer of 2022, the flow of money into the American economy will continue. However, every month it will become $ 15 billion less. What follows from all this? The fact that in the next 8 months, the upward trend in bitcoin may end. Let's remember that this whole trend began in March 2020, when the pandemic took over the whole world, and central banks began pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into supporting the economy. It was then that the growth of the US stock indices, as well as the cryptocurrency market, began. But this can't go on forever. Sooner or later, the Fed will stop ruthlessly exploiting the printing press, and will also start raising rates, which is always unprofitable for either the stock market or the cryptocurrency. Consequently, the investment conditions will worsen now. Consequently, bitcoin may rise in price for several more months and even until the middle of next year, but after this period, a new down trend is likely to begin. Thus, the goal of $ 100,000 per coin, which many experts continue to talk about, is still relevant, but the upward trend in bitcoin is unlikely to continue indefinitely. We expected its completion even when the price was about $29,000. But then large investors and institutions simply did not let the "cue ball" fall lower.



The trend on the 4-hour timeframe continues to be upward. Therefore, at the moment, bitcoin purchases with the goals of $64,700 and $67,000 remain more preferable. But closing the price below the ascending channel will allow us to expect a new round of corrective movement, within which the rate may fall to the level of $ 56,500. By the way, this consolidation may happen in the near future.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Bitcoin will be worth zero.



On a 24-hour timeframe, the bitcoin cryptocurrency retains upward prospects. The price continues to be located not only above the trend line, which has a starting point in mid-July, but also above the critical line. However, in the last few weeks, even on the daily timeframe, the movement looks like a flat. If this is true, then the Kijun-sen line will not act as a strong support for the price, although there have been several rebounds from this line in the last few days. If the price manages to overcome the critical line, then the correction can continue to the Ichimoku cloud and its lower border.

Meanwhile, the author of the bestseller "Black Swan" Nassim Nicholas Taleb made another comment on bitcoin. He once again criticized the blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and also made a prediction that in the end they will all cost zero. "I don't believe in cryptocurrency or blockchain technology," Taleb says. Bitcoin is successful at the moment because it costs tens of thousands of dollars. Remember that a year and a half ago it cost 4 thousand dollars and was in the shadow of other markets and instruments. Such an increase in value is not a success for the currency. The currency should be stable so that all market participants and businesses can trust it without fear that tomorrow the price will change by 20 or 30%. Bitcoin cannot boast of stability. If you pay rent in bitcoins, you can easily go broke if the price goes up, and your income depends on fiat money. It's a bubble and sooner or later it will deflate. And when that happens, the damage to the economy may be irreparable. Gold will never depreciate. I have a gold chain... So it will remain gold in 1000 years, and the blockchain must be supported by people. If interest in him disappears, then it will all go away. There may also be another technology that will displace the blockchain," Nassim Taleb believes.

In general, Nassim Taleb is not mistaken in his conclusions. Bitcoin, as has been said many times, is really worthless by itself. And its value is determined only by the public's interest in it. By itself, it's just a useless piece of code. Thus, if for some reason humanity is no longer interested in it, then it may drop to zero. The only question is, what should happen so that everyone's interest disappears at once?



The bullish trend continues on the 24-hour timeframe, and the ascending trend line remains, which eloquently signals the mood of market participants and can promptly notify them about the beginning of a correction or a new downtrend. As long as the price is above Kijun-sen, we advise you to stay in bitcoin purchases with goals of $64,700 and $67,000. Fixing below it will be a new signal for a new round of downward correction.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for November 08, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Bitcoin is approaching resistance around $66,000 and its all-time highs around $67,000 at the time of writing. The crypto still remains vulnerable to a decline from here until a $67,000 high is reached. A bearish reversal from here could drag prices lower back toward $50,000 before resuming higher again.

The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of recent upswings between $40,000 and $67,000 is seen passing through the $49,500 mark. Further, the channel support trend line is also passing through the same zone and hence high probability remains for a bullish bounce. On the flip side, a push through $67,000 will open doors to the $75,000 mark.

Bitcoin may face immediate price resistance around $67,000-100 while support is at $65,000 (short-term), followed by $56,000 (medium-term) respectively. If it drops below $56,000, it may decline to the $50,000 mark before finding interim support. Aggressive traders might prepare to initiate short positions against the $67,000 level.


TRADING PLAN:
Potential drop to $50,000 against $69,000

Good luck!






Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 8, 2021


Crypto Industry Outlook:
The American grocery chain Kroger has denied claims that it accepts cryptocurrency payments.

The company said the press release stating that Bitcoin Cash would be accepted in all stores, as well as for online purchases, was a hoax. Kroger is the second retailer to fall victim to such a scam recently.

The cryptocurrency space is no stranger to Kroger. In 2020, the company began offering Bitcoin rewards in its store via the crypto-based Lolla platform.

Cryptocurrencies have gradually found their way into the grocery store in various forms. In 2019, Safeway - another major US grocery chain - began offering Bitcoin rewards through Lolla, as did Kroger.

Earlier this summer, Coin Cloud announced that it was preparing to install cryptocurrency ATMs at 29 H-E-B supermarkets in Houston, Texas.

Blockchain technology underlying cryptocurrencies is also expected to play an important role in the food industry. A 2019 study by research firm Gartner predicts that by 2025, 20% of the world's top 10 grocery stores will be using Blockchain chains.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has resumed the impulsive wave to the upside and is currently moving above the technical resistance located at the level of $64,920. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $66,971 and $70,000. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $63,689.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $66,979
WR2 - $67,182
WR1 - $65,171

Weekly Pivot - $62,254
WS1 - $60,269
WS2 - $57,180
WS3 - $55,878


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $66,974 (the previous ATH level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021