Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Is it worth investing in Bitcoin after updating its all-time highs, or is it wise to wait for a correction?



At the moment, Bitcoin seems more attractive than ever to institutional investors and ordinary citizens.

Bitcoin surpassed its April highs on Wednesday and traded at $66,800. However, on Thursday Bitcoin has lost more than $3,500, now it is trading at a price of $63,000.

A reasonable question arises: is it worth taking the risk, following the hype to buy Bitcoin now, leveling all the pitfalls, or is it worth waiting for the correction and then buying?

Bitcoin capitalization takes up almost half of the market capitalization, and the trading volume in the last 24 hours has increased by more than 30%, which is truly an overwhelming factor.


IS IT WORTH BUYING AT THE MOMENT?

Bitcoin showed stunning results on Wednesday, but as of this writing, it has already dropped by almost $4,000.

However, many Wall Street analysts are confident that Bitcoin will not stop there, and the next important price boundary that bitcoin will need to overcome will be the $70,000 milestone.

In fact, bitcoin has grown after the Bitcoin ETFs are created, as well as due to the fact that people are buying it, fearing impending inflation, coronavirus austerity measures, devolving, an unstable economy, a mired and rotten fiat financial system.

This forces people to buy Bitcoin and store their personal savings in wallets. The cryptocurrency market has generally been robust over the past 10 days.

Over the past week, more than $280 billion in transactions were made, according to IntoTheBlock analytics, with average amounts ranging from $100,000 and above.

Whales very often transferred their savings from wallets. The total foreign exchange inflow amounted to more than $11.7 billion, and the exchange outflow of about $11.8 billion.

Over the past month, more than 38 million Bitcoin addresses have been active based on on-chain activity.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin's rop may end soon


Bitcoin plunged after reaching a fresh all-time high of 67,016.50. It has dropped as low as 61,850 in today's session where it has found support. BTC/USD registered a 7.71% fall from the fresh historical high to the current daily low.

Technically, the price of Bitcoin reached strong support levels, former resistance levels. A bullish pattern printed could bring a new leg higher. Still, BTC/USD has shown overbought signs, but it's premature to talk about a larger downside movement.


BTC/USD AT SUPPORT


BTC/USD failed to stabilize above 64,895.22 former all-time high and now it stands under the second warning line (wl2) of the Ascending Pitchfork. It has found temporary support right above 61,781.83 key level.

As you can see, the price of Bitcoin is trapped within an up channel. The bias remains bullish as long as the rate stands within this pattern. From the technical point of view, we have a strong confluence area at the intersection between the 250% line with 61,781.83 and with the uptrend line.

Making a false breakdown through this area or printing a major bullish engulfing pattern may bring new bullish momentum.


BITCOIN OUTLOOK
The outlook is bullish, as the current retreat could help us to catch new upside movements. A bullish pattern on the immediate support levels may bring new long opportunities. Bitcoin is still expected to increase despite the price failing to reach and retest the channel's upside line signaling potential exhaustion.

Technically, only a valid break below the uptrend line could invalidate the upside scenario. BTC/USD could start increasing again as long as it stays above the 61,781 level.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Volumes on ETH futures on CME surpass $1 billion while altcoin breaks $4,000: Where does Ethereum hit a new all-time high?


Over the past few weeks, public attention has been focused on bitcoin, which has been extending its influence both on the market and the information space. Notably, the altcoin market did not show significant capitalization growth during these weeks. The main projects focused on attracting investment and expanding ecosystem's capabilities. However, ETH stands out, managing to feel confident both within its own blockchain and in the cryptocurrency market. Over the last week, the coin showed a 17% gain and will soon hit a new all-time high.

Besides bitcoin's positive impact, several important factors contributed to ETH getting closer to its historical high. The local trading high for ether futures on the Chicago Board of Trade is considered a major one. Real interest in ether futures has reached $1 billion for the first time since trading was launched. Notably, there was a significant increase in ETH futures interest in early September. Besides, institutional interest in altcoin exceeded bitcoin's values. However, the SEC soon stated that approval of bitcoin futures ETF was much more likely than on the spot market. BTC has dominated on the market since then. However, the achievement of such a figure on the CME by altcoin indicates that the market continues to be interested in the main alternative coin. At the same time, it is worth noting a huge difference between the investment appeal of BTC and ETH as the main cryptocurrency took one day to reach the $1 billion mark, while Ethereum futures fund was launched in February 2021.



Despite the gap between the demand for the two market leaders, altcoin is completely enjoying its advantage in the DeFi and NFT sectors. The MonoX platform announced a partnership with ether blockchain and Polygon. Currently, platform users will be able to conduct transactions in the ETH network and make deposits in one-way liquidity pools. This collaboration will significantly reduce fees and improve capital efficiency. Etherium becomes a full-fledged launch pad for digital projects, increasing the retail audience's exposure to small financial transactions and allowing institutional investors to invest in projects based on the most versatile and secure blockchain. This caused the growth of the coin's quotes.

Yesterday, on October 20, Etherium broke the resistance point at $4,000 due to a combination of factors, comprehensive development and general market sentiment. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency gained 12% and is trading around $4,300 at 2 p.m. At the same time, a steadily high rate of unique addresses in the coin network and the average level of transaction volumes are observed. Ethereum will soon approach and make a bullish break of all-time high. This is stated by the technical indicators of the altcoin: all timeframes indicate a further upward movement and a strong bullish momentum that continues to push the price up. On the daily chart, the MACD has received an additional upward signal and started a direct upward move, while the stochastic approaches the end of the realization of the bullish crossover, though continues to go up. The Relative Strength Index is at 75 and continues to move higher, indicating that the upward trend in buyer interest is continuing.





Today, on October 21, ETH/USD will most likely break the absolute record line. As part of the current bullish rally, altcoin is able to make three key stops. After updating the high, the price will climb to $5,500, where it may face increased resistance due to a corrective structure and partial profit taking. In case of reaching this line, ETH will move to $6,400, where it will more likely end the growth in the current market phase. A very implicit assumption was made by a famous analyst Raoul Pal, suggesting that the price per ether will reach $40,000 by May-June. This scenario is possible. However, the distance is too great to make such promising predictions.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Elliott wave analysis of Bitcoin for October 22, 2021



Bitcoin moved to new all-time highs yesterday. We are looking for more upside in bitcoin with the next target seen at 78,982. However, the odds for upside acceleration way beyond 100,000 remain firmly in place here.

Support is currently seen at 59,955 and then at 59,013. Ideally, the latter will be able to protect the downside for the attack on 78,982.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical analysis of Litecoin for October 22, 2021



Litecoin needs a stronger rally of bitcoin. Bitcoin is already at new all-time high levels, whereas Litecoin is going to test its all-time high level at 237. Undoubtedly, Litecoin will reach its all-time high at 237 for a rally towards 348. It just needs more time.

Bitcoin is surging to new highs and in that case, 348 will be drafted by length.




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin drops to $ 63,000, while Ethereum hits new all-time high


Famous author Nassim Nicholas Taleb made a post on Twitter this Friday morning to express his stance on Bitcoin. He explained that he is not bearish on the cryptocurrency, and the reason why he was not able to buy at the price of 8,000 is because of a technical failure.



In the post, Nassim compared Bitcoin to tulips, saying it skyrockets before collapsing. As such, buying it as it is will be as irrational as selling it. But he clarified that he has nothing against the cryptocurrency, despite calling it a Ponzi scheme just recently.

On a different note, Wall Street warned that the current boom brought by the launch of the first US Bitcoin ETF may come at a cost. Strategists from JPMorgan said a very sharp rise in demand could distort the futures market, flaming investor spending on ETFs along the way.

Over the past two days, the new ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker: BITO) has raised a whopping $ 1.1 billion, making it one of the most successful launches in history. But the problem is in the carryover of futures contracts after expiration, which are managed by the ETF of the fund. Considering that the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (BITO) ETF alone already accounts for a quarter of open interest in both October and November contracts, this will drive up and distort the futures curve relative to spot prices and the difference between contracts, which will lead to increased costs for their transfer.

This means that the transfer cost for ETFs may increase several times higher than the cost of managing the product itself, which, as a rule, is quite paltry. In the case of BITO, the expense ratio is 0.95%.

Unsurprisingly, there is no queue to create a new Bitcoin ETF as many companies are awaiting SEC approval for the underlying asset.



Technical analysis on Bitcoin

BTC is currently hovering at $ 65,000 and it seems that it will continue climbing up in the coming days. However, with each upward movement, the number of buyers are decreasing. As such, everything will depend on the level of greed of investors, as falling below $ 62,000 will lead to a drop to $ 58,000 and $ 54,400.



Technical analysis on Ethereum

ETH saw a massive sell-off, which brought the price back to $ 4,100. It is difficult to say how the altcoin will behave further, but it is clear that if it drops below $ 4,050, real problems will begin. In this case, it will be a quick fall to $ 3800 and $ 3600.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin still in bullish trend but bulls need to be cautious.


Bitcoin continues to trade inside the bullish short-term channel that we mentioned in previous posts. Price continues to trade above the key short-term support of $60,000. Price is making a pull back towards $63,000 after making a new all time high above the $66,000 level.



As we mentioned in our previous analysis, the RSI was providing bearish divergence signals in the 4 hour chart, implying that the up trend is weakening. For this to be considered as a reversal signal, we will also need to see price break important support levels and exit the bullish channel. None of the aformentioned conditions has been met, so we evaluate that trend remains bullish until further notice. Price is challenging the channel support. Breaking below $62,000 would be the first important sign of weakness and a break below $60,000 would confirm the end of the upward movement that started back at the $39,450 level.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 22, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin surpassed its record high after the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy, BITO exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Tuesday. However, market analysts believe that the key cause of the price jump is investors' fear of inflation.

The launch of BITO, which brought the highest ever natural volume on day one for an ETF, "is unlikely to trigger a new phase of much more fresh capital going into Bitcoin," JPMorgan said.

JPMorgan believes that as gold has failed to respond to concerns over rising cost pressures in the past few weeks, Bitcoin's renewed role as a better hedge against inflation is a major reason for the current boom. The team stressed that the move away from ETFs to Bitcoin funds has been gaining momentum since September.

As the first ETF related to Bitcoin futures in the United States, the Bitcoin Strategy ETF ProShares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday at an opening price of $ 40 per share. This allows investors to have direct exposure to cryptocurrency futures on a regulated market.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new ATH located at the level of $66,974 before the local low was made at $61,838. Currently the market is consolidating the recent gains. The next technical support is seen at the level of $59,561, but the corrective cycle might extend even towards the key short-term technical support located at $53,331 if the corrective wave of higher degree starts. Please keep an eye on this level as any violation of this level will be negative for bulls. However, so far, the up trend is intact and the target level for the current up wave is located around $74,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $72,401
WR2 - $67,700
WR1 - $63,611

Weekly Pivot - $58,705
WS1 - $54,810
WS2 - $49,233
WS3 - $45,621


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $64,920 (the previous AT level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 22, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF has finally entered into force and is expected to start trading on Nasdaq under the BTF ticker on Friday, industry media reports.

The launch follows the US Securities and Exchange Commission release on Thursday about the effectiveness of the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF.

According to Leah Wald, CEO of Valkyrie Funds, the upcoming fund launch is an important milestone in the relationship between the cryptocurrency industry and US regulators.

"This inauguration is important because it is another confirmation that US regulators want to work with the industry to regulate crypto assets, not ban them. The more products come on the market, the more awareness. There are, of course, other phenomena regarding similar products and it would make sense for them to appear on the market, she said.

As previously reported, the Bitcoin Strategy ETF ProShares became the first Bitcoin futures ETF to be launched in the United States, starting trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. Earlier in October, the SEC also approved a Bitcoin related ETF product by Volt Equity, which provides investors with an instrument to invest in companies with significant Bitcoin exposure.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $4,373, but the rally had ended with a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of it, so a some kind of correction might be expected soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,031 and $3,971. The momentum is strong and positive, so the bulls might risk to push the prices towards the level of $4,000 before any meaningful correction will occur, but any breakout below $3,677 will be a negative in the short-term.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,596
WR2 - $4,262
WR1 - $3,971

Weekly Pivot - $3,631
WS1 - $3,394
WS2 - $3,073
WS3 - $2,777


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for October 22, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Bitcoin hit an all-time high around $67,000 levels before pulling back on Thursday. The minimum projected target is achieved and traders might be preparing to book full profits here. The crypto has rallied since printing $28,600 lows in a fresh rising channel as displayed here on the daily chart. Now, the probability remains high for a pullback towards $56,000 and up to $49,000 levels before resuming an uptrend again.

Bitcoin has produced an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicating a potential reversal ahead. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally between $40,000 and $67,000 is passing through the $48500-49000 mark. It could find the next bullish reversal there and resume an uptrend towards $75,000 levels.

On the flip side, if prices break below $40,000 initial support, bitcoin may drag further towards the $42,000 mark. Bulls could come back in control until prices stay above $28,600 levels. Traders might remain aside for a while and allow prices to correct lower towards $56,000 at least before initiating fresh long positions.


TRADING PLAN:
Target achieved. Remain flat for now.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021