Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 19,.2021 - Rising wedge pattern in the play

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading flat at the price of $62,200 and I see potential for the downside correction due to rising wedge pattern in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Due to the rising wedge mini formation in the background, my advice is to focus on the downside breakout and potential re-test of the $59,500 and $57,200

Stochastic oscillator is showing bear divergence and potential for the downside movement.

Key long term resistance is set at $64,800





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Major crypto market news for October 19: Bank of England warns of new financial crisis



Bitcoin continues its upward trend with targets located around $64,768, where it stopped its growth last time this spring. The markets can only wait now to see what will happen around this mark. A successful attempt to break through it will indicate that the market is ready for further Bitcoin purchases, which may lead to an even greater appreciation of its rate in 2021.


John Cunliffe Warns of New Financial Crisis

The Bank of England's deputy governor John Cunliffe warns that the cryptocurrency market and its excessive bloat could lead to a similar financial crisis back in 2007-2008. Cunliffe compared the explosive growth of the cryptocurrency market from $16 billion to $2.3 trillion over the past five years, stressing that this is the same pace at which the mortgage market in the United States developed until 2008.

"When something in the financial system is growing very quickly, and growing in a practically unregulated space, the financial stability authorities should pay attention to it as soon as possible," said Cunliffe. He also recalled that all cryptocurrencies have no real value and are subject to frequent corrections and high volatility.

BoE's deputy governor also believes that at this stage, cryptocurrencies do not pose a direct threat to the stability of the financial system, however, the deeper they integrate into it, the more the financial system is exposed to risks. "Many central banks have already begun work on tools that will curb the exponential growth of crypto assets," Cunliffe said, "but they should get the job done much faster."


Fidelity predicts Bitcoin will rise to $100,000

Fidelity's director of macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, said that the price of bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by 2023. Timmer believes that the situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like a "bubble," and bitcoin is growing due to the seamless growth of demand for it. "This is not an impulse for one-day speculators, so I am confident that this is a steady movement now, and not a bubble that could burst at any moment," Timmer said.


Protests in El Salvador

A series of rallies and protests against the policies of President Nayib Bukele again took place in San Salvador. It is reported that about 4,000 protesters took part in the march, and at the end of the procession, a doll depicting the President of El Salvador was burned.

El Salvador is the first state in the world to legalize bitcoin payments, and the Salvadorans are unhappy with how the unstable bitcoin rate affects the economy of the country, particularly in their salaries, social benefits, and pensions. One of the poorest economies in the world requires stabilization, not bitcoin experiments, many experts say. Nevertheless, bitcoin continues to be legal tender on a par with the dollar. The country has already installed bitcoin ATMs and terminals, as well as launched a local wallet for payments and exchange, which, however, according to local residents, constantly fails.

Thus, in general, nothing prevents bitcoin from continuing to rise. There have been no major changes in the economy lately, no serious tightening of the circulation of bitcoin, either. The Fed is still pondering when to start tapering QE, and until that happens, Bitcoin may continue to rally.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum: up channel in play!


Ethereum decreased a little in the short term only because the price of Bitcoin has retreated. Bitcoin is bullish, so ETH/USD could try to jump higher after its short-term decline. It could still increase as long as it stays above major and strong support levels.

The retreat could help us catch a new swing higher. ETH/USD has gone up by 0.41% in the last 24 hours and is up by 6.81% in the last 7 days. Despite the bullish outlook, you should still search for a great long opportunity if you are not trading long already. In the short term, the crypto could drop to test and retest the immediate support levels.


ETH/USD TEMPORARY RETREAT



As you can see, the ETH/USD pair has found resistance at the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and now it has challenged the 3,728.13 weekly pivot point. The outlook is bullish as long as it stays above the pivot point and above the uptrend line.

A false breakout with great separation or a major bullish engulfing could announce a new upwards movement. Only a valid breakout below the uptrend line from the upper channel's body could announce a downward movement.


ETHEREUM OUTLOOK

A bullish pattern printed on the weekly pivot or on the uptrend line may announce a new leg higher. Also, making a new high, a bullish closure above 3,861.10 today's high could activate further growth.

A larger upward movement could be activated by a valid breakout above the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and through the 4,025.00 former high.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: more gains expected!


Bitcoin rallied in the last hours reaching a new high of 63,337. The bias remains bullish, so the crypto could approach and reach fresh new highs soon. The price action invalidated a potential corrective phase, that is why we can think that the price of Bitcoin could resume its growth.

Bitcoin is up by 2.48% in the last 24 hours and by 10.23% in the last seven days. Moreover, the market cap has increased by 1.83%, while the volume jumped higher by 1% in the last 24 hours.


BTC/USD FALSE BREAKDOWNS


BTC/USD registered two false breakdowns with great separation below the 60,000 psychological level signaling strong buyers and potential upside continuation. Technically, a temporary decline was expected after reaching the 61,781.83 static resistance.

Now it has jumped above this upside obstacle and it seems determined to approach and reach the 64,895.22 all-time high which stands as major resistance. Technically, the false breakdown with great separation through the weekly pivot of 59,448.19 signaled potential growth towards the weekly R1 (65,035.53).


BITCOIN FORECAST
Bitcoin is somehow expected to extend its growth after validating its breakout above the 61,781.83 level. It is still bullish as long as it stays above the first warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork.

64,895.22 historical high could be used as the first upside target if BTC/USD resumes its growth.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on October 19 - 20, 2021: Sell below $3,700 (symmetrical triangle)



The second cryptocurrency with the highest market capitalization is consolidating below the SMA of 21 located at 3,813 and at the same time forming a symmetrical triangle. We can expect two scenarios if it consolidates above 3.815. There will be an opportunity to buy with a target at 3.906 and up to the psychological level of 40.062 (+2/8).

On the contrary, if Ether consolidates below 3,700 we should expect a sharp break below this level, and there may be an opportunity to sell with a target at 3,593 and it may fall to the 200 EMA located at 3,437.

Market optimism remains strong and many investors believe that BTC may rise to the $70,000 level. If this happens, a bullish movement could occur and Ethereum could reach 4,500. Meanwhile it is observed that BTC and ETH are showing overbought levels.

The eagle indicator that measures the strength and volume of the market is showing a slightly sloping neutral signal, which means that a strong correction in Ether could occur in the coming days.

Our forecast is to expect a sharp break below the symmetrical triangle pattern at 3,700, and thus be able to sell with targets at the 200 EMA located at 3,437.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 19 - 20, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,062
Resistance (2) 3,983
Resistance (1) 3,906

Support (1) 3,761
Support (2) 3,673
Support (3) 3,593


A trading tip for for October 19 - 20, 2021
Sell below 3,700 (symmetrical triangle) with take profit at 3,593 and 3,437 (EMA 200), and stop loss above 3,800.






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: en route to a powerful bullish breakout


Bitcoin is again testing the resistance level of the 59,283.67 - 62,637.96 range for strength, while not showing any signs of clarity about the future direction. But since there is nothing left before the all-time high, let's hope that the main cryptocurrency will break through it.

Nevertheless, hope is an unprofessional quality, so no trading decisions can be made based on it. This is a pure lottery and the way to drain the account. There is also professional intuition, but it is not recommended to use it in trading without confirmation from technical analysis.

Therefore, we will look for some signals from the market that will allow us to understand where the main cryptocurrency will move next.

What will open interest on bitcoin derivatives say?

Today I propose to look at the bitcoin futures market. The cryptocurrency derivatives market as a whole gained momentum during October. Today, open interest is peaking in 2021.

During most of the recovery period in July-August, there was little activity in the derivatives market. The data now shows that open interest in BTC options has grown by 107% in October 2021. The last time it was so high was before the May collapse.

It's worth noting, however, that derivatives markets tend to rise in both bullish and bearish markets, so the rise in open interest can be seen as a double-edged sword.

However, the fact that all calls (option to buy) with a strike price above $100K are the preferred contract option indicates that traders are rather optimistic.

What's the problem with high open interest?

Bitcoin perpetual contracts reached their maximum open interest in 6 months, exceeding $18 billion in outstanding contract value, according to IntoTheBlock analytics data. This value was last tested on April 14, 2021.

But there is one problem with this scenario: it indicates an over-leveraged market. And over-leveraged trades tend to close when short-term price fluctuations occur, resulting in cascading liquidations of both longs and shorts.

In addition, the IntoTheBlock review also mentioned that the funding rate on Binance and FTX hit the level on September 5, when the market last experienced a price crash.

So what about bitcoin: will it crash or finally rise?

The data now suggests that the weighted average attitude towards Bitcoin is still neutral. However, this can also be perceived in a positive way. A break above the historic level of $64,000 could open floodgates for aggressive capital inflows. In addition, the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs will be a significant catalyst for this.

To summarize, it is possible that we are on the verge of a strong bullish breakout. But there are also risks (threats) - this is the excessive use of borrowed funds in futures trading. Remember the collapse that happened in May. The fall was largely caused by a cascade of leveraged takeaways on the margin call.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin respects bullish channel.


Bitcoin is stabilizing above the $60,000 price level. Price remains in a bullish trend as it continues making higher highs and higher lows. Price is still inside the bullish short-term channel, however the RSI is still providing bearish divergence warning signals.



Red lines - bullish channel

Blue line- bearish RSI divergence

The RSI is not making higher highs as the price does. This is a sign that the up trend is weakening. On the other hand price continues to respect the channel boundaries and as long as this is the case, bulls will remain in control of the short-term trend at least. Support is at $60,000 where we find the lower channel boundary. Failure to hold above it, will open the way for a deeper pull back towards at least $55,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano vulnerable to a move towards $1,82.


Cardano as we mentioned in previous posts, has provided us with a bearish signal after breaking out and below the triangle pattern it was. Price has back tested the triangle pattern from below, but price seems unable to gather momentum for a move higher.



Black lines - Triangle pattern (broken)

Green lines - Fibonacci retracements

Cardano is now trading around $2.10 but price has continuously made higher lows over the past few days. Having broken out of the triangle pattern makes price vulnerable to a move lower. Support is at recent low of $2.06. Breaking below it will open the way for a move towards $1.82-$1.80. Resistance is at $2.29. Bulls need to break above this level in order to decrease the chances of any move lower.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin's global bullish trend will end soon: can BTC reach $100k and what will happen to the market next?


The current week may be a turning point for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market due to a confident upward movement and making fundamental decisions for the development of the digital asset industry. Bitcoin is close to its all-time high, while other coins continue to gain in value. The bull market is entering the stage of a broad movement upside and is only gaining momentum. However, the consequences of euphoria on the market can be dire for the entire industry, since there is a possibility that the current rally in price is the final one in this development cycle of the crypto market.

This opinion was expressed by the well-known analyst Alessio Rastani. The trader is confident that Bitcoin is approaching the final stage of the global bull market, which has been going on since 2019. According to him, Bitcoin and all digital coins are moving towards a global bearish trend. Rastani's calculations are based on a wave analysis of the movement of bitcoin and according to this data, the first cryptocurrency is capable of reaching the $100k mark. However, subsequently, the market will be covered with a powerful and long wave of corrections and bear traps.

According to the analyst, the BTC bull trend was launched in 2019 and will end next year, after which the entire market will begin to decline. As of October 19, the crypto market is entering the fifth wave structure, which should become the final one in the upward trend. Rastani also uses data from classical financial markets in his analysis and believes that they may be covered by the crisis in the next few years. According to the trader, this will negatively affect the dynamics of investments in BTC, as well as affect the movement of the price of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the first digital asset will manage to reach an absolute maximum of around $100k, but this will be a fly in the ointment.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to fight for the $64k mark, and as of 14:00 UTC, it is trading in the $62.8k region. Over the past day, the coin has increased by 2% in value and is confidently moving towards breaking a historical record. Cryptocurrency technical indicators signal that BTC will be able to test its all-time high Wednesday this week. Thanks to a strong upward movement in MACD, Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, Bitcoin will move out of the $ 61k- $64k range by the end of Tuesday's trading. Right now, the news background and the confidence of the bitcoin audience leave no doubt about setting a new all-time record this week.



It is likely that after such a protracted growth and confident overcoming of the 78 mark on the Fear and Greed Index, the market expects a strong correction. However, to assume the onset of a full-fledged bear market in the context of several years looks like a premature statement due to the increasing autonomy of the crypto market and the start of a new period of development. Important areas of digital assets are the DeFi and NFT markets, which find their audience and begin to influence cryptocurrency quotes more than economic factors.



In addition, the downturn of the entire market may be associated with BTC, since Rastani uses its wave analysis, but many crypto-assets can avoid direct correlation with Bitcoin. By developing their own ecosystems, the quotes of the coins will have less influence from the main asset, and the developers of the leading coins have already begun to invest in the development of ecosystems.

A recent example is the statement of Vitalik Buterin, who noted the priority of the development of other sides of the ether since it is they that affect the price of the asset. The ADA and SOL projects also broke into the top 10 thanks to the wide capabilities of the blockchain. The DOT project management has allocated more than $800 million for the development of the ecosystem of the coin.

All this makes cryptocurrencies more versatile and independent in their attempts to occupy their niche in the developing digital financial world. Therefore, the indicators of the spot market will fade into the background, and the functionality of the network will become a priority for market participants.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Long-term BTC investors began to take profits en masse: how will this affect the further price movement?


Bitcoin continues to confidently occupy the $62k-$64k range, and on Wednesday it may test its absolute maximum for the first time since April. At the same time, the first signs of weakness are noticeable on the technical charts of the coin, which may signal a further aggravation of this trend. However, a natural question arises: what could have contributed to the emergence of bearish signals with a positive news background and the greed of investors? Ironically, Bitcoin's problems lie in its successes.

Simply put, the first cryptocurrency was covered by a wave of additional pressure caused by the actions of long-term investors. It all started on October 17, when BTC began to approach the $60k mark, which meant that all coins in circulation were fully recouped. It is logical to assume that when crossing the line of primary payback, part of the audience will want to make a profit by fixing it in bitcoin. Again, it would be logical to assume that long-term investors who have held coins for at least 150 days will be the first to delve into this process. This suggests that most of these traders purchased BTC during its fluctuations in the $30k-$45k range and are already within the highest payback on the market right now.

The on-chain analysis also confirms the fact that coins stored in users' wallets for more than 150 days have started to move actively. This confirms the thesis that part of the audience sells their assets, speculatively making a profit. As of October 19, the pressure on the BTC price is felt only on narrow timeframes, which indicates small volumes of coins sold. However, the first preconditions for the emergence of corrective structures and bearish sentiments suggest that the trend may strengthen and move to wider time ranges.

As bitcoin moves above the $65k mark, the pressure on the price will increase as more investors want to sell the coins for a medium to short term profit. In the worst case scenario, this is fraught with a decline to local lows due to an aggravated correction or a local sell-off provoked by negative news. In the best case, the market will simply pause and move to the accumulation stage, after which the growth of quotes will resume.

Despite the possible appearance of an additional pressure on the price, bitcoin continues to move confidently towards a historical record. The coin has consolidated above $62.5k, which may become an important support zone in the near future. At the same time, the cryptocurrency completed the previous day with the formation of a bullish engulfing candlestick and is moving above the supertrend line, which indicates the strength of buyers on the eve of the $64.3k storm.

Technical indicators continue to remain bullish and indicate the continued upward trend. MACD completes the implementation of the bullish crossover, while the stochastic has just completed its formation and is also starting to grow. The relative strength index has again broken through the line at 70 and is moving upward into the overbought zone.



Bitcoin is inexorably moving towards a historical record and local asset sales are leveled by the powerful positions of institutions. In addition, the first US ETF for bitcoin futures launched trading Tuesday, and there are 7 more applications in the queue. Also, the famous Grayscale Trust fund has filed an application for reorganization into an exchange-traded fund on bitcoin futures, which will add excitement and permanent investment in newly created institutions. Therefore, at the moment, the main question is how far BTC will be able to advance and where a new historical record will be set.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021