Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Bitcoin hash rate has just dived sharply and is now falling by almost 45% compared to its peak in 2020. According to the hash rate, the network has dropped from 136.2 quintillion hash / s (EH / s) on March 1 to 75.7 EH / s for today.

Hash rate cryptocurrency is a parameter that indicates the number of calculations that a given network can perform every second. A higher hash rate means more competition among miners in the validation of new blocks; it also increases the number of resources needed to conduct a 51% attack, increasing network security.

After an unstable month in which Bitcoin recorded dramatic, but short-lived losses of up to 60% to around $ 3,600 in mid-March, network difficulty yesterday dropped by almost 16%.

The difficulty - or how difficult it is to calculate and check a block in the Blockchain chain - is adapted every 2016 blocks or two weeks to maintain a consistent ~ 10-minute block verification time.

This is closely related to the hash rate of the network. Typically, when the network experiences a low level of participating mining capacity, the difficulty decreases - while during periods of intense network participation it increases, acting as a balancing mechanism.

The last correction of difficulty took place on February 25 this year, when the Bitcoin price was around $ 9,900. Just three days later, it fell to around $ 8,800, and by March 14 to almost $ 4,800 - and on some exchanges up to $ 3,600, as mentioned above.


Technical Market Outlook:
The bulls has pushed the price out of the Triangle formation and almost make the test of the technical resistance located at the level of $6,863, but the BTC/USD pair has reversed from the level of $6,863 after the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market still consolidates the recent gains in a narrow range, however, bulls still make pressure on the market, but in the meantime they must be careful not the fall under the level of $5,500. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $4,972. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $3,946 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,603
WR2 - $8,246
WR1 - $7,228

Weekly Pivot - $5,818
WS1 - $4,764
WS2 - $3,330
WS3 - $2,301


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 03.26.2020 - I expect further drop on BTC towards the levels at $4.400 and $3.800. Watch for potential breakout of bearish flag pattern for the confirmation...

Bitcoin news:


Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 4% in the past 24 hours, but its losses may be down to an old culprit which has already sparked market volatility and selling pressure.According to data from online monitoring resource Skew, March 27 will see the expiry of Bitcoin options open interest worth 49,400 BTC ($328 million).


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $6.620. I expect further drop on BTC towards the levels at $4.412 and $3.800.

Watch for selling opportunities in case of the breakout of the bearish flag pattern. The breakout of the $6.440 to the downside would confirm further bearish continuation.Downward targets are set at the price of $4.412 and $3.800

MACD oscillator is showing slow upside momentum and the slow line turned to the downside, which is sign of the potential downside continuation.

Resistance levels are set at the price of $7.000 and $7.250.

Intraday support level is set at the price of $6.440.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
During a controversial debate on a huge incentive package in response to a coronavirus pandemic, Democrats in the US House of Representatives pondered the introduction of a digital dollar to streamline payments to US citizens outside the traditional financial system.

The preliminary version of the bill for March 23 proposes the creation of digital wallets for US citizens to be maintained by the Federal Reserve in the section entitled "Direct payments of incentives for families".

The section provides for $ 2,000 monthly payments for each adult earning less than $ 75,000 a year, at which point payments decrease. These payments will last until the recovery of the economy.

Although the proposal indicates a check delivery option, it would require federal reserve member banks to maintain digital dollar wallets for all customers. This version of the bill seems to come from the office of the House Marshal Nancy Pelosi.

The bill is huge, and all existing versions have over a thousand pages and are aimed at $ 1.8 billion distribution.

Both on March 22 and 23 Democrats in the Senate blocked the republican version of the bill (which did not mention digital dollars). Democrats have criticized the bill for favoring large enterprises at the expense of ordinary citizens.

After closing March 23, Marshal Pelosi was expected to present a counter-offer in the form of a $ 2.5 trillion bill.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the trend line support around the level of $119.00, tested the local technical resistance located at the level of $136.62, but did not break through it. If bulls will not break through this level, then the price will likely drop towards the trend line support again. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $110.33. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $89.35 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $202.93
WR2 - $178.10
WR1 - $150.26

Weekly Pivot - $126.31
WS1 - $100.57
WS2 - $71.34
WS3 - $47.20


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has prepared a bill that would allow testing the development of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain in a special regulatory sandbox.

According to a report from a local news agency, the bill was introduced to the State Duma - the lower chamber of the Federal Assembly of Russia - on March 17. Experimental law would apply to digital technologies in eight industries, including healthcare, financial markets, trade, transport, distance education, construction, manufacturing and government services.

The bill would unlock experimental testing of projects such as unmanned vehicles, remote diagnostics, and the use of personal data without written permission.

Participants in a regulatory sandbox would receive regulatory relief for minimum capital, reserve funds and reporting. According to the report, sandbox users would also be exempt from national foreign exchange law.

According to the ministry, the Bank of Russia will act as a financial market regulator within the regulatory sandbox. The bank declined to comment whether it supports the Ministry's initiative.

This message appears shortly after the Executive Director of the Bank of Russia announced that national laws on digital assets will prohibit the issuance and circulation of cryptocurrencies. According to the official, the Russian bill on digital financial assets would prohibit almost anything about cryptography, except storage. This project was delayed several times after its introduction in January 2018. President Vladimir Putin ordered immediate adoption of the bill twice since its creation - to no avail.


Technical Market Outlook:
The bulls has pushed the price out of the Triangle formation and almost make the test of the technical resistance located at the level of $6,863, but the BTC/USD pair has reversed from the level of $6,863 after the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. Bulls still make pressure on the market, but in the meantime they must be careful not the fall under the level of $5,500. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $4,972. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $3,946 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,603
WR2 - $8,246
WR1 - $7,228

Weekly Pivot - $5,818
WS1 - $4,764
WS2 - $3,330
WS3 - $2,301


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Panic does not favor cryptocurrency, but there is hope for a bright future

The value of the first cryptocurrency has lost more than half of its value since February amid the flight of investors from risky assets. In fact, the collapse of financial markets became the catalyst for panic, shook everything without exception, indices flew by ten percent, while shares of developed companies lost a quarter or more of their value. Returning to the crypto industry, we see that the first hundred cryptocurrencies lost an average of 40% of their value in a few days, reaching the levels below the crypto winter. Can this be considered the end of the crypto industry? I do not think so, in this case, the stock market, which has lost an equally significant share, can face a similar dividend.

The flight of investors into the US dollar has affected all markets, and this is logical, since it is most logical to lock in and wait out with mass panic and increasing risks. The next step is based on the theory that when everything collapses, the most liquid instruments begin to pick up from the bottom. In this case, we will talk about Bitcoin, which suddenly appeared at the levels of the spring of last year. It turns out that BTC returned to where it initially experienced some of the worst periods after fleeing last 2017, and it was from here that crypto spring came.

You have already guessed from the context that this is a kind of variable bottom, and if there is a rebound, it will come from the base where this has already happened. It turns out that if crypto investors decide to bribe with a future perspective, now is the right time.



Breakdown of the past days:
• Galaxy Digital founder, Michael Novogratz, is convinced that the coronavirus pandemic could play into the hands of Bitcoin, which will receive a new round of growth amid the global economic crisis.

• The People's Bank of China reminded investors that cryptocurrency, in particular Bitcoin, is a risky asset, and crypto exchanges overestimate trading volumes, misleading users. All this was written by the regulator in a document published on the official website on "Protecting the rights and interests of consumers of financial services".

• The head of Grayscale Investments and Digital Currency Group Barry Silbert, who has substantial reserves of crypto assets, said that a collapse is a great time to buy Bitcoin at a discount.

• Bloomberg analysts suggest that the new stimulus package that US President Donald Trump is so eager to promote can support cryptocurrency in particular BTC.


Current development and prospects
Partial recovery of the first cryptocurrency [BTC] has already led to the return of quotes to the region of $ 6500 / $ 7000, which means that recovery is more than 70% in value from a minimum of [$ 3858]. In this development, we see only a small part of a possible recovery, since the quote on March 12 has not yet managed to return 100% to levels before the decline.

Regarding the base point, it was previously noted that the minimum point of $ 3858 coincided with the crypto winter range of $ 3150 / $ 4200, which means that in theory, we can get an influx of new injections that will continue to be stocked with bitcoin in the future growth and repetition of the spring 2019 scenario.

It can be assumed that if the quote still manages to fix higher than $ 7000 in the D1 period, then the chance of moving towards $ 8500 will be a very real development in the near future. There is also an alternative scenario in the existing development, which reflects the repetition of the plot of the crypto winter, where in this case the interaction range will be located in the region of $ 4820 / $ 7000.

As you may have guessed, the second development option can drag Bitcoin into a long and painful wandering.



The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see that capitalization has slipped to the levels of early 2019 due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency market.

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, we will see that the current value of $ 143 billion is even lower than the average indicator for the end of last year, which means that an increase of about $ 40-45 billion is still possible.



The emotion index, which is also fear and happiness of the crypto market, continues to be at a low level of 13, which leads to panic and reluctance of market participants to invest in risky assets. Let me remind you that the index fell below 10 at the time of the collapse.



Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments with respect to all the main time intervals are prone to a further upward trend due to the recent partial recovery of the course.







Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 03.25.2020 - Potential end of the upward correction and downside continuation (bearish flag pattern), drop towards the level of $3.800 very possible. The breakout of the bearish flag will be confirmation.

Corona virus news:


Iran:
A major crackdown on travel and an imposition of social distancing measures are to be introduced in Iran in the next 24 hours. Iran reported 2,206 new coronavirus cases in last 24 hours raising the total number to 27,017. The country also announced 143 deaths in the same period, raising the total number of deaths to 2,077.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $6.600. My bear view from yesterday is still valid.The price is again near the important resistance pivot levels at $7.000. I still expect potential downside movement towards the levels at $4.400 and $3.800.

Watch for potential selling opportunities in case of the breakout of the bearish flag pattern on the daily time-frame.

MACD oscillator is showing downside momentum and falling slow line, which is sign that sellers are in control on the mid-term prospective.

Resistance levels are found at the price of $7.000 and $7.300.

Support levels are set at the price of $4.412 and $3.800




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The world's largest producer of ASIC Bitcoin excavators, Bitmain, sold out the first round of domestic sales of Antminer S19 within 24 hours of receiving orders.

On March 23, Bitmain wrote on Twitter that it had opened its first domestic sales stage to the long-awaited Antminer S19s - before it was sold out the same day.

The first version of Antminer S19 will have a hashrate of 95 terahash per second (TH / s) and energy efficiency of 4.5 ± 5% joules per terahash (J / TH), while the Antminer S19 Pro has a hashrate of 110 TH / s and an energy efficiency of 29.5 ±% 5 J / TH. The second version of both S19 will have a reduced hashrate by 5 TH / s.

Plain S19 costs around $ 2,180, while the pro version costs $ 2,920. Bitmain says international sales will follow soon.

Customers who managed to enter the first round can expect units to arrive between 11 and 20 May. Given that Bitcoin's halving is currently scheduled for May 12, the estimated S19 shipment dates have provoked the wrath of the mining community.

Many comments in response to the Bitmain announcement suggest that the company chose this date so that it could extract Bitcoins using next-generation ASICs without competition even before the awaited halving.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $5,827 which is just above the lower Triangle pattern line located at $5,620. Then bulls has pushed the price out of the Triangle formation and almost make the test of the technical resistance located at the level of $6,863. They still make pressure on the market, but in the meantime they must be careful not the fall under the level of $5,500. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $4,972. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $3,946 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,603
WR2 - $8,246
WR1 - $7,228

Weekly Pivot - $5,818
WS1 - $4,764
WS2 - $3,330
WS3 - $2,301


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 25 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Twitter cryptographic community reacted with horror at the news that the US Federal Reserve had received a mandate to print as much new money as needed to avoid a deeper financial crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Charles Hoskinson, CEO of Cardano developer IOHK, tweeted that he "senses the true climate of OneCoin" from the US dollar.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, mentioned in a television interview that there is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve:

"Congress literally told us. Here is the authority they have entrusted to us: print money and ensure liquidity in the financial system."

The idea that the Federal Reserve would be allowed to print an infinite amount of new money sparked a comparison with OneCoin, which was a scam that earned at least $ 4 billion on unsuspecting investors, unaware that the token they were buying had no base value.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the trend line support around the level of $119.00 and is currently testing the local technical resistance located at the level of $136.62. If bulls will not break through this level, then the price will likely drop towards the trend line support again. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $110.33. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $89.35 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $202.93
WR2 - $178.10
WR1 - $150.26

Weekly Pivot - $126.31
WS1 - $100.57
WS2 - $71.34
WS3 - $47.20


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 03.24.2020 - Potential end of the upward correction and downside continuation, drop towards the level of $3.800 very possible. The breakout of the bearish flag will be confirmation.

Corona virus news:


Italian and Spanish PMIs will be published on 1-3 April but today's flash releases already confirm that the economic slump will be worse than in core countries, and much deeper than during the Global Financial Crisis.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upwards. The price is again near the important resistance pivot levels at $7.000. I still expect potential downside movement towards the levels at $4.400 and $3.800.

Watch for potential selling opportunities in case of the breakout of the bearish flag pattern on the daily time-frame.

MACD oscillator is showing downside momentum and falling slow line, which is sign that sellers are in control on the mid-term prospective.

Resistance levels are found at the price of $7.000 and $7.300.

Support levels are set at the price of $4.412 and $3.800





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 24 March 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has frozen the assets of Meta 1 Coin, an alleged cryptographic fraud supported by a former US senator that has promised investors a return of up to 224.923% without real tokens.

According to the SEC's announcement, the regulator initially froze Meta's assets on March 16 and charges the company's operators with fraud charges. At present, the SEC appears to be fighting for fines and defamation, not imprisonment of those involved.

Meta 1 claimed that his tokens were supported. However, this support has changed over time from around $ 1 billion in rare works of art to, recently, $ 2 billion in gold.

The SEC accusation reads: "In fact, Coin is not supported by anything."

One of Meta 1's main sponsors named in the accusation is Dave Schmidt, a former Republican senator of Washington.

Suspicious interests have already appeared in Schmidt's past. He lost his re-election campaign to his position in Washington in 2006, after which he faced an investigation into the improper spending of over $ 40,000 on campaign funds.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the trend line support around the level of $119.00 and is currently testing the local technical resistance located at the level of $136.62. If bulls will not break through this level, then the price will likely drop towards the trend line support again. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $110.33. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $89.35 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $202.93
WR2 - $178.10
WR1 - $150.26

Weekly Pivot - $126.31
WS1 - $100.57
WS2 - $71.34
WS3 - $47.20


Trading Recommendations:
All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020