Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The creator of Ethereum spoke about comparing Ethereum with Bitcoin. Vitalik Buterin said he was concerned about the possibility that the cryptocurrency sector would fall into a "cultural trap." In his opinion, this could happen if the current thinking paradigm does not fundamentally change.

When it comes to Ethereum, Buterin expressed concern that the network's main concern could be its exclusivity for the rich. High transaction fees, he said.

When asked if Ethereum could overtake Bitcoin in the future, Buterin replied that he did. As for possible flippening in terms of capitalization:

"I think the big difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin is a platform where the value of the ecosystem comes from the value of the currency, and in Ethereum the value of the currency comes from the value of the ecosystem."

As you may remember, the problem of high fees in Ethereum was taken up by elements of the update introduced as part of the London hard fork. Pointing to this as another milestone for the network, Buterin said:

"Especially after EIP-1559, since the toll burn mechanism is in operation, it becomes true in a more direct, economic sense."

At the time of writing, Ethereum's market cap is less than 40% of capitalization. Ethereum is significantly ahead of the cryptocurrency king network in terms of the number of transactions and the size of transaction fees.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD bulls are back in control of the market after the breakout from a potential triangle pattern in the wave 4. This corrective wave looks completed, so the next target is located at $3,677 and then at $3,830. This might be the last wave in the impulsive cycle, the wave 5. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $3,606. The momentum is back into the positive zone, but is not that strong yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,097
WR2 - $3,885
WR1 - $3,704

Weekly Pivot - $3,473
WS1 - $3,298
WS2 - $3,083
WS3 - $2,876


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
After China suppressed Bitcoin mining, the United States has become the leading country in terms of hash rate.

According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), US Bitcoin miners account for 35.4% of the total global BTC hash rate distribution.

CBECI data also indicates Kazakhstan (18%) and Russia (11%) as the next major Bitcoin mining centers outside the United States. These three nations gained significant market share following China's cryptocurrency mining ban.

Perhaps particularly interesting is the fact that the CBECI figures indicate a 0% rate from China. However, it is possible that covert mining operations continue to operate despite the ban.

Apart from mining suppression in China, North American cryptocurrency mining plants increased their efficiency, significantly increasing the efficiency of the equipment.

American miners such as Argo Blockchain, Riot Blockchain, Marathon and several others have taken out large orders for mining platforms from leading manufacturers such as Bitmain and MicroBT.

Places like Texas and Ohio are also expected to host Bitcoin mega mines that will further increase the production capacity of US cryptocurrency miners. The expansion of the US mining space also made more companies apply for listing on US stock exchanges.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $58,498 as the bulls are on control of the market. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $55,748, but the corrective cycle in wave 4 might extend lower towards the key short-term technical support is located at $52,209. Please keep an eye on this level as any violation of this level will be negative for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $69,115
WR2 - $62,582
WR1 - $60,185

Weekly Pivot - $53,520
WS1 - $50,100
WS2 - $43,237
WS3 - $40,463


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

US is the new leader in Bitcoin mining




US is now the largest center for Bitcoin mining. It happened after China imposed a complete ban on crypto-related activities in the country.

According to reports, US now accounts for around 35.4% of the world's hashrate - an indicator of the computing power used to mine digital currency. The figure is twice as high as in April.



The University of Cambridge said the data came from mining pools BTC.com, Poolin, ViaBTC and Foundry.

As noted above, the surge was driven by China's move away from the crypto industry. Earlier, it was the leading base of miners who received cheap electricity from coal and hydroelectric power plants.

Now, China's efforts to contain the crypto market are paying off, and Cambridge researchers have found that its observed share of Bitcoin mining has almost reached zero. This is 75% lower than in September 2019, and is a noticeable decline from 46% in April this year.

There is, however, a strong possibility that hidden mining is still taking place in China, but it is done through VPNs, which makes it seem like computers are working in another country. Cambridge said the recent increase in hash rates in Ireland and Germany is likely a result of the use of VPN miners or proxies.

Miners are now looking for cheaper electricity and governments that support digital currencies, so over the past year, Bitcoin was able to increase by over 370%. Currently, it is trading around $ 57,300 and has a market cap of above $ 1 trillion.







Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 14,.2021 - Potential for the downside rotation

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $57,800 but I see potential for the downside rotation.


Trading recommendation:
My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at $57,200, $56,800 and $56,200.

Stochastic oscillator is showing potential for the downside rotation due to hinge pattern in the background.

Key resistance is set at $58,500





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin is ready to return to all-time highs of $64,000, Ether targets $4,000

Bitcoin stopped at $58,000, and ether, breaking above $3,600, is testing the $3,700 level. Other altcoins have also seriously gained weight over the past day. But before talking in detail about the technical picture, special attention today was drawn to the interview of the Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability John Cunliffe.



Cunliffe noted that cryptocurrencies can cause a global financial crisis if strict rules for their regulation are not introduced. Judging by the fact that the UK has been actively struggling with digital currencies lately, such statements did not cause much surprise among the cryptocurrency community. In his speech, Cunliffe compared the growth rate of the crypto-asset market from $16 billion five years ago to $2.3 trillion today with the $1.2 trillion subprime mortgage market in 2008. "When something in the financial system grows very fast and grows mainly in an unregulated space, financial stability authorities should sit down and pay attention to it," he said.

Cunliffe acknowledged that governments and regulators should be careful not to overreact to newly emerging trends in the digital sphere, as, in his opinion, crypto technologies open up the prospect for radical improvements in the financial services sector. He also noted that currently, the risks to the financial stability of the UK and other countries remain limited, but the current use and distribution of crypto assets in the future will pose a more serious problem for financial stability, since most of them have no intrinsic value and are subject to ultra-high volatility.

It is difficult to disagree with him since the sharp rise of bitcoin in the $60,000 area at the beginning of the year, and then a hard landing in the $30,000 area in May, brought enormous losses to those who traded with leverage or were reckless about investing in this asset class. Even now, when bitcoin has returned to the level of $58,000, everyone is also subject to a variety of external factors: from the comments of Tesla CEO Elon Musk to regulatory repressive measures by the Chinese government.

According to the representative of the Bank of England, the connection of the crypto world to the traditional financial system carries a lot of risks, since all this happens in an unregulated space. By the way, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, holds about the same position. Back in May, he warned investors that they should not invest all their money in cryptocurrency, since there is a fairly high option of their complete loss.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it has not changed much.

The bulls have once again approached a fairly large resistance of $58,000 and are testing it for strength. A breakout of this range will open a direct road for the trading instrument to the highs of $62,200 and $64,700. If buyers fail once again and fail to break above $58,000, the pressure on bitcoin will return and in this case, they will have to defend the support of $54,444, the breakout of which will quickly dump BTC at $51,000 and $47,600.



As for the technical picture of the ether, there was a breakout of a rather large level.

The chart clearly shows how going beyond the $3,600 resistance was perceived as a signal for active purchases of ether, which persists at the time of writing this review. The nearest target in this case for the bulls will be the resistance of $3,880, the breakout of which will provide an opportunity for the test of $4,124. It is possible to talk about the return of pressure on ETH only after the unsuccessful defense of the $3,600 mark, which must necessarily take place in the near future before a major campaign of ether in the area of annual highs.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) for October 14 - 15, 2021: Buy above $ 3,600 (Strong Support)



The price of Ethereum has formed the Bullish Pennant pattern. In the Asian session, there was a sharp break above this technical pattern confirming a probable upward movement in the coming days. At the moment of writing, ETH was above the strong resistance of 3,600 and it was expected to continue rising to +2/8 of Murray located at 4,062.

Some investors and analysts believe that ETH could reach $ 6,000 before the end of the year. However, let us remember that this cryptocurrency is correlated to BTC, so if BTC reaches 75,000, Ethereum may go up to 6,000.

According to the 4-hour chart, the trend remains bullish as it is now located above the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA. These moving averages support the outlook of a bullish movement to +2/8 of Murray around the psychological level of 4,000 in the short term.

As Ether broke the Bullish Pennant, a correction towards the top of 3,600 is expected, which has now turned into strong support. The level of 3,600 put ETH under pressure on September 16 and October 8. Now the price has finally broken above this level.

Therefore, you can buy at the current price levels, or if there is a bounce towards this support, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 4,062.

After recovering from an overbought zone, the Eagle indicator is now showing a bullish signal, therefore, buy above 3,600 with targets at 3,800 and up to 4,062 (+2/8).


Support and Resistance Levels for October 14 - 15, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,062
Resistance (2) 3,879
Resistance (1) 3,806

Support (1) 3,663
Support (2) 3,437
Support (3) 3,341


A trading tip for ETHER for October 14 - 15, 2021
Buy above 3,600 (strong support) with take profit at 3,806 and 4,062 (+2/8), stop loss below 3,493.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ether aims at 4,000 psychological level

Ethereum climbed as much as the 3825.89 level today registering a new high. Despite the BTC/USD's temporary decline, ETH/USD has continued to increase. It has registered a 6.57% growth from 3,589.90 today's low to 3,825.89 daily high.

Now, it is still up by more than 5% today. Technically, it's strongly bullish, so further growth is natural. After making a new higher high, ETH/USD confirmed strong buyers and potential further growth. Bitcoin is also bullish, further growth helps the altcoins climb higher.


ETH/USD UPSIDE REACTIVATED!



Ethereum registered an aggressive breakout through the weekly R1 (3,640.80) confirming further growth. I've told you in my previous analysis that ETH/USD could resume its growth as long as it stays above the ascending pitchfork's median line (ml) and if it makes a new higher high.

The immediate upside obstacle, potential target, stands at the weekly R2 (3,860.43) level. Also, the price could be attracted by the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) after making a new higher high.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!

A minor decline after the most recent rally could bring fresh long opportunities. The bias is bullish, so we could search for new bullish signals. 3,677 level is seen as static support. We can try to catch a new leg higher from around this level if ETH/USD comes back to retest it.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for BITCOIN on October 15 - 16, 2021: Buy above $56,250 (SMA 21)




After having reached the maximum of 58,462, BTC is likely to make a correction to 55,200. This level represents the bottom of the bullish channel formed on October 6. During the last 4 hours, candles have been showing a deceleration of the bullish force. At this moment it is bouncing above the SMA of 21, if it consolidates below this level, the key will be to wait for a rebound in the support of the channel for a new bullish wave .

This decline sets the stage for an upcoming move to the next psychological level at 60,000. Investors expect an attractive level to buy BTC again at a good discount.

The eagle indicator is showing a decline in the market volume. Investors are likely to try to take profits after the bull rally that is when BTC breaks the psychological level of 50,000.

BTC rally from a technical perspective came when it broke the 200 EMA on Oct 1. It could also be attributed to renewed enthusiasm around the approval of the BTC futures ETF. Some investors are viewing BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation rather than gold.

The eagle indicator has reached a key support level. At this time of writing, it is observed that it has reached this line and it is expected that there will be a rebound of the oscillator and it may favor BTC, and it could continue with its bullish movement in the next few hours.

Our forecast remains bullish, as long as the price is located above the 21 SMA at 56,250. It is likely to continue its bullish movement, and could reach 7/8 of a murray located at 59,375. A breakout of this level could quickly rise to 8/8 murray around 62,500.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 15 - 16, 2021
Resistance (3) 60,081
Resistance (2) 59,375
Resistance (1) 58,300

Support (1) 56,519
Support (2) 54,738
Support (3) 53,125


A trading tip for GOLD for October 15 - 16, 2021
Buy above 56,250 (SMA 21) with take profit at 59,375 and 62,500 (8/8), stop loss below 55,200.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert ofInstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues its strong rally, but are markets preparing for a decline?




Bitcoin managed to easily break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level. Now, it continues to grow at a high rate. In principle, the cryptocurrency has only one significant level – the price's historical high of $ 64,700. Therefore, the price may reach this value today or tomorrow, since it is currently trading at $ 59,500. We also continue to draw the attention of traders to the fact that there is no visible fundamental background for active bitcoin purchases right now. In principle, the whole movement, starting from $ 30,000 per coin, can be called quite groundless. So from our point of view, we are now talking about another "hype", which is always difficult to predict.

In fact, we are not the only ones who adhere to this point of view. It became known a few weeks ago that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may allow exchange-traded investment funds to trade bitcoin this month. All funds that have applied to the SEC are going to trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This is not even bitcoin itself, but bitcoin futures. As a result, many experts believe that "digital gold" is now growing on expectations of SEC approval of these applications. However, other experts also believe that when this happens, Bitcoin may start to decline, rather than continue to grow. We are talking about the so-called "advance" growth or, as traders say, "buy on rumors, sell on facts."

That being said, it is possible that the reason for the massive purchases of the main cryptocurrency now is the possible admission of the ETF to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The SEC may publish the relevant decision as early as October 18-19, that is, in just a few days. That is why many experts believe that bitcoin may start a new decline, which will be triggered by mass profit-taking. At the moment, it is difficult to say whether this will actually be the case, but this idea needs to be kept in mind by all bitcoin owners. It should also be noted that Bitcoin grew by 2,500% in 2017 in anticipation of the resolution of bitcoin futures, and then collapsed by 80%.

From a technical point of view, it is also worth noting that the upward trend still remains. On the daily timeframe, quotes are very far from the trend line, so if a collapse happens, many traders will not be able to react to it in time. Therefore, it is recommended to use Stop Loss orders and focus on the nearest support and resistance levels, from which rebounds or breaks may follow. It should be borne in mind that Bitcoin can not only grow at a rapid pace but also plummeted.



There is still an ascending trend in the daily timeframe after the price managed to break through the level of $ 56,500. This trend line supports the bulls, so it will be possible to talk about a new strong decline in Bitcoin only after breaking this line, which is very late. The upward target remains at the level of $ 64,700, and if a rebound occurs from it, traders must consider the option to make a correction. It is also suggested to pay attention to the four-hour timeframe, where it is possible to form an upward trend line. Consolidating quotes below which will warn a possible correction more quickly.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

What awaits Bitcoin next year?



Bitcoin continues its strong growth on the four-hour timeframe. It was already previously mentioned that its current growth seems very "hype". That is, it seems that market participants have seized on some event or factor and are buying bitcoin based on it. We believe that such an event could be the SEC approval for exchange-traded investment funds to trade bitcoins on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, it is advised to look a little further into the future and guess how Bitcoin will be traded next year. At the moment, it is not far from its historical highs, but what will happen when the Fed begins to wind down its quantitative stimulus program? What will happen when rates around the world start to rise, increasing the cost of money?

Many crypto experts continue to argue that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will not be able to occupy a prominent place in the global financial system. It is absolutely not profitable for central banks to have such uncontrolled currencies or their analogs. Everyone has talked about this a bunch of times, but it was this year that the bans on bitcoin began. China was the first to speak, but it is unlikely that it will remain the only country in the world that will ban bitcoin, cryptocurrency transactions, and mining. Other countries may not ban bitcoin, but may greatly tighten its regulation, as well as impose taxes, so its investment attractiveness may greatly decrease.

In addition, we should remember one of the main factors why Bitcoin rose to the level of $ 64,700 last time and this time. Given that these two events took place over the course of a year, what can they have in common? Obviously, it's the worldwide pandemic crisis. This is the time when key rates were cut to zero and central banks were pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. That is, money was (and remains) cheap in itself in many developed countries. Loans cost almost 0%, which allows us to take it and invest in the same bitcoin. Moreover, the money is getting cheaper due to the quantitative incentive programs. Naturally, such instruments as bitcoin, are growing in price under such conditions, as well as with the inflation that has grown in recent months, which forces investors to look for ways to protect their money from depreciation.

It can also be recalled that the US stock indices noticeably increased during the pandemic. This is because investors have constantly directed their money into stocks, which could rise in price over time, and also bring dividend income, as well as into cryptocurrencies, which remain "a way to make money quickly." In general, we believe that when the monetary policy begins to tighten everywhere next year, hard times may come for Bitcoin.



The bullish trend continues in the four-hour timeframe, and an ascending trend line has formed, which now more eloquently signals the mood of market participants and can promptly notify about the beginning of a correction or a new downward trend. As long as the price is above it, it is recommended to stay buying bitcoin with the target of $ 64,700. In turn, a consolidation below it will be the first signal to end the current bullish trend.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021