Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Two Fundamental Signs of Bullish Dominance


Recently it became known that the SEC approved the creation of the Volt Crypto Industry Revolution and Tech ETF. And today, Bloomberg's chief ETF analyst Eric Balchunas again raised the topic of Bitcoin ETFs. They are expected to be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in late October - early November this year.


Prospects for Bitcoin Futures ETF Approval

If all goes well, ProShares, the first to apply for a Bitcoin ETF, will be able to launch it in eight days.

Balchunas noted on Twitter that the SEC has a few days left to either approve or again delay consideration of the creation of Bitcoin futures ETFs. In 2021, nearly two dozen applications were submitted, including from the giants Galaxy Digital and VanEck.

The first application for a BTC ETF, according to Balchunas, came from ProShares. There is no news yet from the SEC about these bitcoin futures ETFs, but the expert says that in this particular case, the lack of news is perhaps good news.

But there is another side of the coin here. The same Balchunas notes that the crypto community may overestimate the demand for these bitcoin funds. He acknowledges that if they are launched, it will be a huge step forward. However, it is likely that in the first year their volume will not exceed $4 billion, and this is a very small amount.


Investors are in no hurry to sell bitcoin

A recent weekly report released by Glassnode shows that the total number of active Bitcoin addresses in the past week has reached 291,000, up nearly 19% since the beginning of October. The average transaction size for the main cryptocurrency has also grown. Now it is 1.3 BTC.

Long-term bitcoin holders have significantly increased their savings since March 2021. Over the past seven months, the volume of assets of long-term holders has grown by 2.37 million BTC. During the same period, only 186,000 new coins were mined.

At the same time, the daily number of active participants in the network has grown by 19% this week, reaching about 291,000. This value corresponds to the indicators of the end of 2020 at the beginning of the last bullish period. More active market participants have historically been correlated with growing interest in the asset in the early stages of bull markets, Glassnode notes.

Long-term holders now own a total of 13.28 million bitcoins. The latest Glassnode report shows that long-term bitcoin holders are still unwilling to sell their digital assets, despite the price of the main cryptocurrency rising above $57,000. In March 2021, the volume of coins in long-term holders was 10.91 million.

In parallel, there was a sharp decline in the supply of bitcoins on the exchange.

"Coin retention has dominated over the past 7 months, with over 2.37 million BTC crossing the short-term and long-term holding threshold (~155 days)," Glassnode added in its report.


Big growth or big disappointment?

So, several interesting events are brewing on the market: the possible approval of the Bitcoin ETF and the approach of the main cryptocurrency to historical highs. In the market, judging by the reduction in supply and the growth in the number of holders, this is expected.

And here, in my opinion, two scenarios are possible. Traders are well aware that the market is growing on rumors and expectations. While it pushes the price up. But reaching an all-time high, if it roughly coincides in time with the possible actual approval of the SEC funds, could lead to a fall in the main cryptocurrency. Firstly, some of the buyers are likely to fix profits, and secondly, sales based on facts have not been canceled.

The second scenario is a rapid passage of the historical high, as was the case with the 2017 high, without significant corrections. That's when you can soon expect $100,000 for one bitcoin.

But these are scenarios for the future, perhaps not very distant. So far, BTCUSD is rolling back to the level of 55,842.84 that was broken yesterday and, possibly, will confirm it as a support.








Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano breaks out of the triangle pattern.


In our previous posts about Cardano price action, we noted that price was expected to break out of the triangle until October the 15th the latest. Price today broke below the lower triangle boundary and provided us with a bearish signal.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracement

Black lines - triangle pattern

Cardano is trading at $2.12. Price is now below the lower triangle boundary. Support is found at the 50% retracement at $2.03 and failure to hold above this level will be another bearish signal. Price is now vulnerable to a move towards $2.03 and lower as long as price is below $2.35. Bulls need to break above $2.35 in order to regain control of the trend. The triangle break down in Cardano has potential to push price towards $1.70. However we need to keep a close eye on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is key support.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin signals start of a pull back.


Bitcoin got rejected at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance and is now pulling back towards $55,000. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $39,500, but price is vulnerable in the near term to a pull back towards $50,000-$52,000 at least.



Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

Bitcoin price is getting rejected at important Fibonacci resistance. The RSI as we mentioned yesterday was at overbought levels and justifies at least a short-term pull back. Previous highs at $52,873 is our minimum pull back expectations. A back test of the broken resistance at $52,873 is our primary scenario. If Bitcoin prepares a bigger correction is difficult to tell right now.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term XRPUSD analysis.


XRPUSD got rejected at key Fibonacci resistance level of $1.20 and has pulled back towards $1.05. Price is still trading inside a bullish channel and as long as price holds above the key $1-$0.98 support, bulls will have the upper hand.



Blue lines- bullish channel

Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

XRPUSD has resistance at $1.20-$1.23. Breaking above it will push price fast towards the 78.6% retracement around $1.29. It is important for bulls to stay inside the bullish channel and at the same time continue making higher highs and higher lows. The big question is whether XRPUSD has already made a major bottom and it is at its early stages of an upward movement, or there is still more downside to be seen and bulls are unable to break above $1.30-$1.40. The $1-$0.98 level is the key to this question. As long as we hold above it, XRPUSD could continue higher and even make new 2021 highs.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ether to climb higher


Ethereum retreated a little in the short term. Nevertheless, the bias remains bullish. It has retested the near-term downside obstacles. Now, it seems determined to jump higher. As long as it stays above 3453.05 weekly pivot point, ETH/USD could resume its upside journey.

It stands at 3514.15 at the time of writing far above 3404.33 yesterday's low. Ethereum is still up by 0.34% in the last 24 hours and by 1.01% in the last 7 days. The bias remains bullish, so ETH/USD could approach new highs soon if the price of bitcoin climbs higher.


ETH/USD IN THE GREEN!


Ethereum retested the ascending pitchfork's median line (ml). Now, it has jumped above the 23.6% retracement level and above the weekly pivot point of 3455.61 level. It could climb higher as long as it stays above the median line (ml).

A new high, a bullish closure above the weekly R1 (3639.92) signals an upside continuation. The bullish scenario could be invalidated only a valid breakdown below the median line (ml).


ETHEREUM OUTLOOK!
A false breakdown with great separation below or a major bullish engulfing here around the support levels could bring a new long opportunity. A valid breakout through the weekly R1 (3639.92) may announce a potential growth towards the 3900 and 4000 psychological levels.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jamie Dimon criticizes Bitcoin again



Bitcoin has continued to rise for the last few days, which was already expected. Even when Bitcoin surged to $ 55,000 per coin this weekend, the correction did not start, suggesting the continuation of growth. As a result, Bitcoin's quotes still reached the next resistance level of $ 56,500 and even consolidated above it, but the breakout turned out to be false, so it can be considered a rebound from the level. A collapse or a correction did not follow, but only a strong round of correction, which can now be already considered completed. Thus, a breakdown of the level of $ 56,500 could help the world's main cryptocurrency to further rise. It is also worth noting that a trend line cannot be formed at the moment, since the growth of the cryptocurrency is too strong and there are simply no pivot points.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has received a new round of criticism from the CEO of JPMorgan investment bank Jamie Dimon. In his speech at an event organized by the Institute of International Finance, he stated that he does not pay any attention to Bitcoin and still believes that it has no value and it does not bring any benefit to humanity. Nevertheless, Dimon noted that the bank's clients are adults and have their own opinion on this issue. Therefore, if customers want to be able to buy bitcoin, then the bank must provide the most legal and secure way to do so.

In addition, it should be noted that the Bitcoin dominance index is rising again and is approaching 50%. It can be recalled that the so-called "altcoin season" began at the beginning of this year when it was the alternative cryptocurrencies that grew much stronger than bitcoin and had much greater potential to rise. That's when the first conversations began regarding the fact that bitcoin is becoming less promising for investors than, for example, Ethereum. However, investments now in bitcoin exceed investments in other cryptocurrencies, so it can be concluded that the markets are now using the most likely way to earn money. It can be said that the entire crypto market is united by bitcoin, so this may well explain the current "hype" around it. And since Bitcoin is growing, and other cryptocurrencies are not, although there are no good fundamental reasons for this at all, it means that the current growth is just a "hype", which was mentioned this weekend. Consequently, the current growth may continue for some time, but the "hype" usually ends with a collapse of the cryptocurrency, with a strong decline. Therefore, it is better to be cautious.



There is still an upward trend on the four-hour timeframe. The price already managed to break through the level of $ 56,500, so it is currently recommended to make a correction as the quotes fell under this level. However, we would not advise rushing sales. It is possible to open them in small lots with a Stop Loss above the level of $ 56,500. If the level of $56,500 is broken once again, the upward movement may continue with a target of $64,768. This level is the absolute high.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 13, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
International airport Simona Bolivara is working to ensure that cryptocurrency payments are in line with local industry standards. The airport, also known as Maiquetia, is located in the center of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela.

According to Maiquetia director Freddy Borges, the airport plans to accept multiple cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Dash and Venezuelan digital currency Petro. He said the airport administration will introduce new payment options in coordination with the national oversight of crypto assets and related activities in Venezuela.

Introducing crypto payments at Maiquetia Airport would mean a commitment by the company to advance towards international standards and drive the adoption of digital currencies, Borges noted. According to the director, the crypto payment option would benefit foreign tourists, including those from Russia.

Several airports and airlines around the world have in recent years explored ways to introduce crypto payments and Blockchain-based features to provide better cash payment options and improve customer verification services. In March, the Latvian airline airBaltic began accepting Ethereum and Dogecoin as a form of payment for tickets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has complete the wave 3 with a top at the level of $57,779 and is starting the correction in the wave 4. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $55,748, but the corrective cycle in wave 4 might extend lower towards the key short-term technical support is located at $52,209. Please keep an eye on this level as any violation of this level will be negative for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $69,115
WR2 - $62,582
WR1 - $60,185

Weekly Pivot - $53,520
WS1 - $50,100
WS2 - $43,237
WS3 - $40,463


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 13, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Bitfury, a cryptocurrency mining hardware manufacturer in Europe, is reportedly planning to go public. The company, which specializes in the supply of Bitcoin mining hardware and related services, allegedly contacted Deloitte, one of the top four accounting firms, to assess its readiness to issue a stock market on a regulated market.

The company wants to take advantage of the cryptocurrency boom to get better results in public markets. The last round of Bitfura funding was in 2018, when the company raised $ 80 million from investors such as Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz, earning a $ 1 billion valuation. Bitfury is reportedly considering Amsterdam or London as a possible market for its public offering.

If Bitfury takes the leap into being a publicly traded company, it won't be the first in the cryptocurrency space. Earlier this year, Coinbase, one of America's leading cryptocurrency exchanges, went public, giving investors the opportunity to invest in the future of the cryptocurrency world without investing directly in cryptocurrencies. After going public, the company had a valuation of $ 50 billion. Other cryptocurrency mining companies are already trading in public markets as well.

Canaan Mining, an Asian cryptocurrency mining hardware manufacturer, went public in the U.S. in November 2019, raising $ 90 million. Bitfury is also the parent company of Cipher Mining, which already trades on Nasdaq through a SPAC agreement with Good Works Acquisition Corp. Bitfury still owns a minority stake in the company.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD had pulled-back towards the technical support located at the level of $3,385 and continues the corrective cycle. There is a clear Bullish Engulfing pattern at the end of the last pull-back, so the bulls are back in control of the market. The next target is located at $3,677 and then at $3,830. The momentum is back into the positive zone, but is not that strong yet, so a more complex and time-consuming correction in a potential wave 4 is still possible.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,097
WR2 - $3,885
WR1 - $3,704

Weekly Pivot - $3,473
WS1 - $3,298
WS2 - $3,083
WS3 - $2,876


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

JPMorgan offers multiple ways to access Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies



JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he personally considers Bitcoin (BTC) "useless," adding that it will face increased regulatory scrutiny in a while.

"No matter what anyone thinks about it, government is going to regulate it," Dimon said. "They are going to regulate it for (anti-money laundering) purposes, for (Bank Secrecy Act) purposes, for tax."

These bearish comments unavoidably pushed Bitcoin down to $ 56,200 on Tuesday, albeit above its price of $ 50,000 a week ago.

But Dimon stressed that his personal views may differ from those of JP Morgan's board of directors or asset management clients, and said the bank "can provide them with legal and cleanest access" to Bitcoin.

Indeed, JPMorgan and other asset management firms offer many ways to access Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. CoinShares said investment capital is pouring into the industry, including $ 226 million last week. Almost all streams go to Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL).



CoinShares also said that over the past eight weeks, $ 638 million has been transferred to crypto assets. As such, together with rising prices, assets under management are now just 5% below their all-time high of $ 67 billion.

More crypto-related products are also being launched. For example, Invesco released two ETFs last week: the Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF (SATO) and the Invesco Alerian GalaxyBlockchain Users and Decentralized Commerce ETF (BLKC).

So, Dimon is not really wrong when he said that regulations are likely to become tougher for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In fact, the Biden administration already convened a task force to develop new rules for stablecoins, and the head of SEC, Gary Gensler, has repeatedly called for the regulation of some cryptocurrencies as securities.

Bloomberg also reported that the White House is currently considering an executive order to direct a number of federal agencies to study cryptocurrencies and recommend legislative changes.

The Congress is also considering new rules for crypto tax reporting.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Institutional investors provided Bitcoin an upward rally, while retailers sell the asset



Such players turned out to be institutional investors who caused the current bullish BTC rally. This was stated by the experts of the analytical company B2C2. Currently, the market has a fragile balance with a weak dominance of buyers, which is natural given the growth of the BTC/ USD pair. On cryptocurrency platforms, the situation is different: for the period from the beginning of September to October, users preferred to sell their stocks of the first coin. This suggests that the dynamics of cryptocurrency exchanges stand out from the general mood of the market. Platforms for retail and simplified use are the only exception in the entire market, where there is a significant preponderance towards asset sales. It would be quite reasonable to note that this could have been facilitated by the September collapses of the cryptocurrency, which did not scare off only seasoned players, but this is not so. According to the data of the same analytical company, in the period from October 3 to October 10, the following ratio of longs /shorts was observed on cryptocurrency platforms - 42% to 57%.



This is direct evidence that retail traders were betting on Bitcoin decline, and the upward trend in the number of unique addresses was dictated solely by manipulative and short-term plans of traders. However, as it was already clear in August, the BTC market is moving towards expanding trend cycles, and so, short-term investors do not get the necessary results and only slow down the growth of bitcoin prices. Despite this, there is a tendency that the number of retailers will fall due to the continued influx of institutions. This will make the asset more predictable and eliminate the likelihood of local panic sales. In addition, the 30% rise in Bitcoin over the past two weeks suggests that the market has enough bullish strength to set new highs even without significant support from retail traders.

Despite all the positivity, Bitcoin underwent a correction yesterday and tested the strength of the support line at $55,500, after which the price recovered above the level of $56,500. However, BTC began to decline again and broke the level of $ 50,000. Over the past day, the asset has fallen by 4% and is trading around $54,700. Bearish signals are visible on the daily chart, which was facilitated by the formation of a red candle with a long lower wick.

At the same time, technical indicators of the cryptocurrency began to decline, despite the fact that the price found a stable support line at $54,500. The MACD indicator is moving sideways, which indicates the loss of the upward momentum of the bullish wave. The stochastic oscillator formed a bearish intersection and dropped below the 70 mark, and the relative strength index continues to decline after the stochastic and has already approached 60. Everything points to a breakdown of $54.5k and further downward movement to the nearest support zone around the $53,700 mark.



This line will most likely be the last one, as the first steps towards stabilization of the situation are visible on the four-hour chart. Stochastic and RSI index managed to turn around and are moving sideways, which indicates the loss of strength in the downward wave. Despite this, MACD continues to decline to the zero level, so we should expect a period of stabilization and consolidation in the near future, gravitating towards the lower border of the support area.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021