Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 04.22.2020 - Resistance at the price of $7.000 is on the test. Watch for potential downside rotation

Corona virus summary:


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60-day ban on immigrants


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $6,960. In my opinion BTC is at the important resistance trend-line and that sellers opportunities are preferable. I see potential for the further drop towards the levels at $6,550 and $6,465.

Watch for selling opportunities using the intraday frames 15/30 minutes for better entry. Any downside rotation or bearish divergence in the momentum may be the good trigger for the downside.

Support level is set at the price of $6,750.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
In a note published on April 15, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City stated that Bitcoin is definitely not a safe haven, noting that as an asset it is far more risky than gold.

The central bank branch cited data from which it follows that Bitcoin shows a positive correlation with the S&P 500 index during periods of decline. 10-year treasury bonds and gold were at the opposite pole - negative correlation with S&P 500 was observed here. This shows that BTC has not achieved safe harbor status.

Although many agree with the Federal Reserve that Bitcoin is not digital gold, others note that this does not mean that the cryptocurrency will not become a safe haven. Gold has been on the markets for thousands of years, and BTC for a decade, but an increasing number of investors believe that buying BTC during a crisis is not a bad idea. For example, Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX, wrote in a blog post that he believes investors should now buy BTC and gold. He referred to the fact that central banks today print money for power, which in the long run will reduce their value. On the other hand, BTC cannot be reprinted in this way.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading close to the main channel lower boundary for some time now, but still there is no decisive move in this market. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the middle of the range as the local low was made at the level of $6.706. The momentum is decreasing and moving into a negative teritorry, so the bears might extend the move down again. Please watch the level of nearest technical resistance located at $6,908 to invalidate the downward scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,288
WR2 - $7,759
WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596
WS1 - $6,675
WS2 - $6,137
WS3 - $5,855


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD on 22 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A hacker who stole $ 25 million in crypto from the dForce decentralized financial protocol over the weekend gave up almost all funds. According to data from the Ethereum blockchain, many transactions were initiated today from the Lendf.Me Hack address to the Lendf.Me project administrator's address. Many of them included very large amounts, e.g. for 57,992 thousand Ethereum, worth about 10 million dollars.

Other transactions included various US dollar-related stablecoins, such as USDT, BUSD, TUSD, DAI, USDC, HUSD and PAX, for a total value of nearly $ 10 million. Also returned 581 chip units that are associated with Bitcoin, for a total of about $ 4 million. Interestingly, the hacker did not return the exact amount of funds he had stolen, but returned some of these values in other types of tokens, but everyone confirmed that they had recovered the stolen funds.

At this stage, it is not known why the hacker did not simply return the stolen resources, and even why they were returned at all. Lendf is one of the two protocols supported by the dForce Foundation.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $165.65, after the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move. This means the bears were testing the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $168.25. So far the bulls has manage to push the price towards the level of $173.12, which is the lower boundary of demand zone, but the bulls keeps fighting back and are currently testing this level from below. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $240.86
WR2 - $214.90
WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55
WS1 - $159.05
WS2 - $132.99
WS3 - $117.12


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 04.21.2020 - Downside pressure started as I expected. Watch for selling opportunities...

News:


Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty just saw its biggest rise in six months and it's estimated it'll reach an all-time high in two weeks.

Bitcoin mining difficulty, a measure showing how hard it is to compete for mining rewards, just went through another adjustment, and the numbers were close to what was estimated yesterday, but still haven't reached that far. It went up 8.45%, thus reaching 15.96 T, short of 16.55 T discussed a day ago, but more than was estimated two weeks ago (5.65%).


Technical analysis:
BTChas been trading downwards as I expected. The price tested the level of $6,745 but I still see lots of potential for the downside.


Trading reccommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the main downward targets at the price of $6,555 and $6,467.

MACD oscillator is still showin negative reading but the slow line did start to turn to the upside.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
For the first time in history, a huge drop in oil prices can be observed, the largest since 1983, while Bitcoin's value remains at USD 7,000. One BTC currently reaches 600 barrels of black gold

According to today's market data, WTI barrel contracts that expire in May lose 36% of their value during the day. Their value is $ -36.37.

It seems that despite attempts to reduce supply, oil markets may reflect the prognosis of Bitcoin supporters and fall even lower. At the same time, the gap between the futures contracts for May and June has widened, which means that despite this change, there is still a belief that there will be a large increase in the price of black gold. This was not enough to avoid unexpected situations on the oil market. On Monday, Western Canadian Select even managed to break into negative prices.

The crypto industry is amused about the situation. CasaHODL co-founder Jameson Lopp wondered on Twitter:

| How long will Antminer S9 work with 1 barrel of oil? "

Others noticed that even 1 Ethereum reached over 15 WTI barrels, while the variability of black gold was clearly visible compared to other macro assets. Over the year, the WTI ratio fell by as much as 64%.


Technical Market Outlook:
The Doji candlestick pattern that has been made at the top of the move of BTC/USD over the weekend has again proved to be the profitable signal as the Bitcoin rate dropped towards the main channel upper boundary line recently. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the middle of the range as the local low was made at the level of $6.706. The momentum is decreasing and moving into a negative teritorry, so the bears might extend the move down again. Please watch the level of nearest technical resistance located at $6,908 to invalidate the downward scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,288
WR2 - $7,759
WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596
WS1 - $6,675
WS2 - $6,137
WS3 - $5,855


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 21 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The BitMEX crypto exchange registered in Seychelles is joining the efforts to fight the global pandemic COVID-19.

Today, the stock exchange operator, HDR Global Trading, has launched a fund to combat coronavirus, while announcing its $ 2.5 million in subsidies to four recipients.

The company claims that the best way to join the global fight against a pandemic are:

"[...] strategically targeted funds that can fill gaps in global operations and quickly strengthen well-equipped but underfunded organizations."

After consulting with their advisors, HDR Global Trading decided to make a donation to two partners of Gates Philanthropy Partners COVID-19 Funds, namely the biosecurity program under the Nuclear Threat Initiative, OpenMined and Our World in Data initiatives.

These organizations focus on policy analysis and capacity-building projects to reduce biological risk, vaccines, diagnosis and treatment development, information verification and open source support for data protection techniques.

HDR Global Trading emphasized that all funds made available through the COVID-19 Response Fund are independent of the personal initiatives of its co-founder Ben Delo, a signatory to Giving Pledge.

It is also worth recalling that the Stellar Development Foundation allocated up to 2.5 million lumens earlier this month for non-profit organizations working to help in crisis situations during a pandemic.

Meanwhile, Binance began efforts to raise $ 5 million in cryptocurrencies to buy medical supplies for the countries most affected by the pandemic, after buying medical equipment for Chinese Wuhan worth $ 1.4 million in January.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $165.65, after the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move. So far the bears has manage to push the price towards the level of $172.91, which is the lower boundary of demand zone, but the bulls keeps fighting back and are currently testing this level from below. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $240.86
WR2 - $214.90
WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55
WS1 - $159.05
WS2 - $132.99
WS3 - $117.12


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 04.20.2020 - The drop has started as I expected. The downward target is set at the price of $6.500.

Corona virus summary:


An emerging shortage of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) caused by the coronavirus pandemic may affect food supply chains and drinking water, a Washington state emergency planning document has revealed.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. The price did break of the important support at $6,970 and confirmed further downside movement. My analysis from Friday is still active and the downside targets are set at the price of $6,555 and $6,460.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downward targets at the price of $6,555 and $6,460.

MACD oscillator is still showing negative reading on the 1H time-frame with the slow line slopping to the downside, which is sign that down cycle is active...

Resistance levels are set at the price of $7,200

Support levels and downward targets set at the price of $6,555 and $6,460.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis for ETH/USD for 20 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Recently there was an interview with co-founder Ethereum and founder Cardano (ADA) Charles Hoskinson. During the interview, he discussed his criticism of the Ethereum platform development.

Hoskinson believes that one of the main reasons for the development of Ethereum was because it depends too much on Vitalik Buterin personally, which means that Ethereum is growing at the speed of development of Vitalik as CEO. According to Hoskinson, this shows that Ethereum is Vitalik's first major project:

"He has never done it before. This is his first company, his first project. He was never a researcher, he was never a CEO."

Another serious criticism that the founder of Cardano has towards Ethereum is the fact that project development plans are too optimistic, which leads to unreal expectations. Hoskinson suggested that there might also be some dishonesty related to the way the project was sold about the fight for ProgPow, as evidenced by an attempt to change the proof of work algorithm as they switch to proof of stake.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $188.86, but this high was made on a Pin Bar candlestick pattern that might indicate a deeper downside correction. So far the bears has manage to push the price towards the level of $176.77, which is the lower boundary of demand zone, but the bulls keeps fighting back. Over the weekend they have pushed the price almost back to the highs and currently are trading in a narrow range close to the top. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $240.86
WR2 - $214.90
WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55
WS1 - $159.05
WS2 - $132.99
WS3 - $117.12


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The president of the Swiss Crypto Valley Association (CVA) said the coronavirus pandemic had a serious impact on the local cryptocurrency ecosystem.

A recent report states that representatives of nearly 80% of crypto valley companies have said they are likely to go bankrupt in the next six months. The information was based on a smaller sample, but it certainly reflects market sentiment.

The report - based on the replies of 203 company representatives - also claims that 88.2% of companies will not be able to survive a pandemic without government assistance. In addition, 56.9% already had to dismiss employees, and 90.7% expect this in the future. Haudenschild expects the coronavirus to have far-reaching implications for the local cryptographic ecosystem. The effect will be that companies will have to find a way to survive. Given that many of them have just emerged from the effects of a long crypto winter, this double blow will be difficult for them. The second effect will be that everyone will be forced to switch to digital technology.

To help companies in the crypto valley, the CVA is able to provide companies with information on how to get help - financially or otherwise. Unfortunately, the report also notes that 68.3% of cryptocurrency startups that have applied for a Covid-19 loan have not received such a loan. Haudenschild pointed out that most of the effort must be made by companies that themselves have to devise a new course of action.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a high at the level of $7,247 during the weekend, but Doji candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the middle of the last wave up and the Bitcoin rate has stayed inside of the range during all the weekend. The momentum is decreasing, but is still pretty much positive, so the bulls might try to attack the last high again soon. Please watch the level of nearest technical support located at $6,908 to invalidate the bullish scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,288
WR2 - $7,759
WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596
WS1 - $6,675
WS2 - $6,137
WS3 - $5,855


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Chainalysis organized a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on cryptographic crimes. During this meeting, the company revealed that criminals are selling coronavirus infected blood at Darknet.

According to Chainalysis, Darknet markets were not immune to the negative effects of a pandemic, with a 33% decrease in the number of cryptocurrencies sent to fraud addresses. Cybercriminals have reacted in various ways to the crisis. Some showed restraint by following the code of honor they imposed. Others have fallen to a new level of amorality.

In a particularly hideous form, the Darknet vendor claims he is offering for sale blood infected with coronavirus, which he claims he has injected into bats. The store owner claims that blood was taken from his hospitalized father. It counts 0.005 BTC per bat. It is unclear whether the seller actually sells infected blood or just wants to extort victims from their Bitcoins.

On the other hand, some Darknet operators show signs of dignity. Many sites banned the sale of "drugs" on COVID-19, and DoppelPaymer ransomware administrator said it would not launch attacks on hospitals during the crisis.

It is unclear whether the current crisis will have a profound impact on the world of cryptocurrency crimes. For now, the industry continues to monitor and fight illegal Blockchain transactions where possible.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel recently and made a new local high at the level of $7,140. Nevertheless, this high has produced a Pin Bar candlestick pattern that indicated the bears are now trying to regain the control over the market. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,212. The key technical resistance is still seen at the level of $7,386. The larger time frame trend remains down, but the short-term momentum is slowly increasing, so the odds for an upwards breakout might be high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,127
WR2 - $7,746
WR1 - $7,416

Weekly Pivot - $7,017
WS1 - $6,690
WS2 - $6,300
WS3 - $5,960


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020