Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: 4 Signs of a Bull Market and a Decisive Frontier Before a Breakout


Bitcoin's upward rally continues, BTCUSD price seems to be drawing a second bullish flag, approaching the moment of truth: further rally or reversal. This review contains the fundamental factors influencing Bitcoin and the forecast that are relevant today.


WHALES ACCUMULATE AND TRANSFER TO COLD STORAGE

One of the signs of a bull market is the fact that bitcoin whales are actively accumulating cryptocurrency. According to network data provider Santiment, bitcoin millionaire-level whale addresses have made the largest hoard in the past 27 months.

Bitcoin whales holding between $100 and $10,000 BTC accumulated $70,000 BTC 10 days ago. This day has become a record in volume since July 2019. At the same time, they do not intend to sell coins yet.


SUPPLY FALLS - BITCOIN IS NOT SOLD

According to CoinGape, the supply of bitcoins on exchanges has reached a 30-month low. This suggests that purchased digital coins are sent to cold wallets for storage and are not used in speculation. Long-term bitcoin holders began massive accumulation after stocks bottomed in March 2021. According to Glassnode, these long-term holders have amassed 13 times more BTC than they mined in the past seven months.

Thus, $2.35 million worth of bitcoins have been purchased for long-term storage since the coin supply hit a low in March. During the same period, only $180,000 BTC was mined.


FOUR FUNDAMENTAL REASONS FOR THE GROWTH OF BTCUSD

This accumulation pattern clearly shows the beginning of the next bullish cycle. Now BTCUSD needs to consolidate above the resistance area of 52,000.18 - 52,929.15, in order for the cryptocurrency to open the way to the all-time high. Its achievement no longer seems unrealistic, as well as the forecast for the growth of bitcoin to $100,000 per coin.

Thus, among the fundamental arguments of the bull market, it is worth noting:

-Accumulation of coins by bitcoin whales while reducing the supply of coins on the market. Large players buy cryptocurrency in the hope of growth and transfer it to cold storage.
-A negative difference between inflows and outflows on the stock exchange, confirming the previous point and reducing fears that the current growth is just a "dead cat bounce" (short-term growth before recession).
-Favorable market expectations after the head of the Fed said he did not intend to ban cryptocurrency in the United States. On Tuesday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler also noted that his department does not intend to impose such a ban, but such a likelihood "will depend on Congress."
-Finally, there remains a bullish effect from expectations for Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of this year.


At the same time, it is worth recalling that the price includes everything, which means that technical factors should be kept in mind when trading what we see, and not what we think. Therefore, against the background of all favorable fundamental factors, we keep in mind the price behavior relative to the resistance area 52,000.18 - 52,929.15. And when the price consolidates above it, confirming it as support, it will be possible to breathe out and tune in to buy.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD continues to respect support.


XRPUSD is now trading around $1.07. Earlier today price was under pressure as the important horizontal support at $1-$0.98 area was successfully tested and respected. Bulls have managed to defend the support area and are now pushing price higher.



Blue rectangle - key short-term support

Today's price action confirms the importance of the blue horizontal support zone. Breaking below it will provide us with an important bearish signal. We will not be bullish below the blue horizontal support area. Resistance is at $1.09. Breaking above this level and staying above it, will open the way for a move towards $1.23. Bulls have the upper hand as long as price is above $1.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ethereum, ETH, for October 06 - 07, 2021: buy above $ 3,404 (6/8)




On a 4-hour chart, Ethereum's price is trading within an uptrend channel, below the key resistance 6/8 murray, and above the 21 SMA. There is a balance between supply and demand if the Ethereum is below 3,400. Only a consolidation above 6/8 murray could favor the upward movement to the level of 3,600, where the top of the bullish channel is located.

From September 20 to September 30, ETH was trading in a range zone of 2,812 - 3,150. After several days of consolidation, on October, 1 it sharply broke the top of the range and climbed above the EMA of 200. It is still trading in the same manner today, adding a bullish outlook for Ethereum in the medium term.

The bullish movement is expected to continue, but BTC has reached a key overbought level below 53,000. If it makes a downward correction, ETH, which is correlated with the flaghsip cryptocurrency, could suffer a decline, until the EMA of 200 located at 3,125.

On the contrary, only a break of the uptrend channel and consolidation above 3,600, the next target, will be the level of 3,750 where there is the strong resistance of 8/8 of murray.

As investors are cautious and nervous about the data that will be published on Friday with the NPF of the United States, they are likely to take profits or liquidate their buy positions. Then, we should expect a consolidation of ETH below 3,400 with a target at the 200 EMA located at 3,200 and up to pivot point of 4/8 Murray at 3,125.

The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal. A negative divergence is observed, which means that the volume and strength of the market is decreasing, so selling below the top of the bullish channel around 3,600 will be a good strategy.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 06 - 07, 2021
Resistance (3) 3,674
Resistance (2) 3,582
Resistance (1) 3,465

Support (1) 3,287
Support (2) 3,125
Support (3) 2,966


Trading tip for Ethereum for October 06 - 07, 2021
Buy above 3,404 (SMA 21) with take profit at 3,600 and 3,750(8/8), stop loss below 3,320.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
©2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC: Bull market approaches


Bitcoin is confidently holding above $50k, although the charts continue to fluctuate. Despite this, the cryptocurrency is one step away from launching a full-fledged bull market. Now the coin is in the stage of consolidation and accumulation, and a positive news background can significantly accelerate this process, thanks to which an enthusiastic market will start pushing the price up.

The main contributor of good news this week was the American public authorities. Following the Fed's favorable meeting for BTC and denying plans to ban cryptocurrencies, Securities and Exchange Commision Chairman Gary Gensler, spoke positively. Gensler stressed that the regulator does not have any plans to ban cryptocurrencies following China's recent crypto crackdown. Thanks to this statement, the accumulation of coins by retail investors has significantly increased, as can be seen from the on-chain charts. In addition, this news can be perceived as a "warming" in the relationship between the regulator and the cryptocurrency market, which may cause the approval of the ETF fund in the country soon.

Another positive news was the launch of a bitcoin storage service by one of the five largest banks in the U.S. -- U.S. Bank. It is worth noting that the initiative is aimed at expanding the capabilities of institutional funds when working with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin. The project is at an early stage, while the functions for using only the first coin are implemented. The service will add support for ETH and other altcoins in the near future. Thanks to this, large capital will have more opportunities to use BTC, which will be favorably displayed on the quotes of the asset. The bank said that the project will be significantly expanded if the ETF fund is approved in the United States. The company's representatives attribute this to the increased attent

This news directly suggests that banks are beginning to expand services for interacting with cryptocurrencies and expect the adoption of ETF funds in the United States. Earlier it was reported that the first fund will be approved in the United States at the end of 2021. In the long term, these decisions of major stock market participants will have a positive impact on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. So far, the coin is one step away from overcoming the final resistance line at $53k, consolidation above which will launch a bull market in the cryptocurrency market. Over the past day, BTC has risen by 2.5% and as of 12:00 UTC, it is quoted near $51k.

The technical indicators of the cryptocurrency demonstrate the fragmented dynamics of price movement, which casts doubt on the achievement of $53k during Wednesday's trading. The MACD indicator starts to grow, moves along the red zone. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator formed a bearish intersection, which indicates the weakness of buyers and the weakness of the current bullish momentum. The RSI is also moving in a downward direction, towards the 60 mark. All this points to increasing pressure on the bitcoin price as it approaches $53k, therefore, most likely, a successful breakdown of $53k will not happen today.



On a smaller timeframe, technical indicators are moving sideways, which indicates a phase of consolidation and stabilization of quotes in this price range. However, taking into account the indicators on the daily chart, most likely, the indicators will begin to decline, following the downward momentum provoked by increased pressure on the price. Despite this, the cryptocurrency is in a growth phase, and going beyond the descending parallel channel has become the beginning of a new growth cycle. Positive news, the expansion of institutional opportunities, and the activation of the BTC audience indicate the continuation of the upward movement and the imminent transition to the next phase of growth.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin moves towards all-time highs


Bitcoin was at 54,874 level at the moment of writing. It climbed as high as 55,499.96 today, breaking the strong resistance levels. The bias is bullish, so further growth is expected. Technically, the price has ignored strong upside obstacles signaling strong buyers.

BTC/USD registered a 10.06% growth from 50,428.64 daily low to 55,499.96 today's high. The current rally was somehow expected after the price action has shown oversold signs. The sellers were too exhausted to keep the rate down. Now it has printed a new higher high announcing strong bulls.


BTC/USD FRESH UPSIDE BREAKOUT



Bitcoin resumed its growth after stabilizing above 23.6% retracement level and above the Ascending Pitchfork's median line (ml). I've mentioned in my previous analyses that BTC/USD is expected to climb even higher if it stabilizes above the median line (ml).

Now, it has ignored the upper median line (uml), 52,956.47, and the 150% Fibonacci line. It's located above the weekly R2 (54,541.27) which represents a static resistance.


BITCOIN OUTLOOK
Stabilizing above the R2 (54,541.27) and beyond the 150% Fibonacci line signals potential further growth. Personally, I believe that Bitcoin could climb higher as long as it stays above 52,956 former high and above the Ascending Pitchfork's upper median line (uml).

The all-time high of 64,895.22 is seen as a potential upside target and obstacle as long as the upside scenario is intact.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for October 07, 2021




TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Bitcoin continues its rally without any meaningful retracement reaching close to the $56,000 mark on Wednesday. The crypto is trading extremely close to major resistance at the $59500 mark. It is quite possible for bulls to target $59,000-60,000 straight from here before producing any meaningful correction. The next major buying zone still remains around the $45,000-46,000 zone.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around the $55,000 mark at this point in writing and might be poised to push through $59,500 resistance in the near term. It is recommended to wait for a retracement to initiate fresh long positions going forward. Immediate price resistance is seen at $59,500, while support is strong at around $40,000 respectively.

Bitcoin continues to remain bullish till prices stay above the $40,000 mark. The high probability remains for prices to correct to the $45,000-46,000 zone in the near term, before resuming higher again. Bulls are targeting above the $65,000 mark going forward but prices need to stay above the $40,000 mark.


TRADING PLAN:
Potential towards $65000 against $40,000. Next buy zone is around $45,000-46,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
©2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

New wave of hype on Bitcoin



Bitcoin has risen by $ 15,000 in just a week, and that's everything to know about its current movement. It is clear that when traders see the cryptocurrency rise by $ 15,000, they immediately start looking for the specific news that could lead to such huge growth. However, this growth can be attributed to almost any message that was released over the previous week. For example, Jerome Powell said last week that his office is not going to follow in the footsteps of China and ban all cryptocurrency transactions. In principle, Bitcoin's price growth began already then. Then yesterday, it became known that SEC Chairman (US Securities and Exchange Commission) Gary Gensler said that there are no prohibitions in the plans of his department either. It turns out that when the markets received these two messages, they immediately rushed to buy Bitcoin. Now, what will happen if Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks tomorrow and says that her department also has nothing against Bitcoin? And then next week, Joe Biden will speak and say "let's spare Bitcoin"? If all of this happens, will we see Bitcoin around $ 100,000 per coin?

It is worth noting China's bitcoin banning, where a huge number of miners were concentrated and a huge number of operations took place. This cost bitcoin less than $ 15,000. But here, we also have the two speeches by Powell and Gensler, which led to the growth of Bitcoin by $ 15,000. That's is the power of hype.

From our point of view, a new wave of hype on Bitcoin has begun. It started at the level of $ 30,000. If one can recall, the validity of such a strong growth was questioned then, when many cryptocurrency experts were betting on the continuation of a much more logical correction. However, major market players initially kept Bitcoin from declining below the level of $ 30,000, and from further fall below the level of $ 40,746. It should be noted here that the price tried to consolidate below six times.

"Our approach is completely different," Gary Gensler said during a speech to the US Congress. "The question is how do we integrate this cryptocurrency into the existing framework for protecting investors and consumers. How should we interact with other regulators to facilitate the work of the Ministry of Finance on combating money laundering and tax administration," he added.

Gensler was also asked about the interpretations of the concepts of "Bitcoin" and "Ethereum", but the head of the SEC refused to give an exact answer to this question. In principle, the markets didn't really need this answer. The main thing is that Gary Gensler said that the SEC will not ban the main cryptocurrency.



There is still an upward trend in the four-hour timeframe, and the price already broke through the level of $ 51,350. As previously mentioned, one should have bought bitcoin with a target of $ 56,500. Bitcoin's fate for the next few days will be determined again around the level of $ 56,500. After breaking through it, the price will rush to its annual highs around the level of $ 65,000. A rebound is the beginning of a new correction with a target of $ 51,350.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

SEC gives Bitcoin green light

Bitcoin skyrocketed to $ 55,000 after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said the agency will not ban cryptocurrencies. This is a huge surprise because earlier he said crypto are highly speculative, and that its value is determined "by nothing but the willingness of investors to pay."



When asked whether the SEC had plans to follow China's example of banning cryptocurrencies in favor of the future central bank digital currency (CBDC), Gensler replied that it would all be up to the Congress. This assertion completely coincides with the recent statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who also announced that the central bank has no plans to ban crypto.

Nevertheless, it is obvious that the growing interest of investors is forcing the government to work on a regulatory framework that can regulate the industry, or at least part of it.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also spoke yesterday about cryptocurrencies and digital assets. In her opinion, digital currencies backed by central banks are the most secure form of digital money, but this is not the case for cryptocurrencies. She also believes that Bitcoin should not be called digital money.

To date, 110 countries are already studying digital currencies for their introduction into the use of central banks. Georgieva noted that the key task of authorities now is to ensure the interoperability of digital currencies with real means of payment.

The National Bank of Georgia already announced that it will launch a pilot program next year, and the initial testing will be done in retail.



There is currently an active struggle around $ 54,444 in Bitcoin. If bullish traders manage to push the quote above the level, it will not be long before the token hits $ 58,000 and $ 62,200. But if bearish traders manage to bring the quote below the level, Bitcoin will plunge to $ 51,000, and then drop to $ 47,600 and $ 43,300.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 7, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
The US Department of Justice has announced that it will appoint a team to enforce cryptocurrency laws. Thanks to the activities carried out by the new team, exchange users are to be better protected against possible abuses.

Lisa Monaco, who is the deputy attorney general, spoke about the plans to create a special team:

"Cryptocurrency exchanges want to be the banks of the future. We need to make sure that folks can have confidence when they're using these systems, and we need to make sure we've poised to root out abuse that can take hold on them ".

The US government wants to focus primarily on organizations that use cryptocurrencies for money laundering. According to Monaco, it's about a better fight against the financial ecosystem that enables criminals to grow their businesses and profit.

"We want to strengthen our capacity to dismantle the financial ecosystem that enables these criminal actors to flourish and - quite frankly - to profit from what they're doing".

The announced activities are to be implemented in cooperation with experts in cybercrime and anti-money laundering.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $55,785, just above the 261% Fibonacci extension located at $55,198. This means the target for the wave 3 in our Elliott wave analysis scenario had been completed and the market might be ready to develop the corrective wave 4. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $52,902 and $52,330. Please notice the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart support the possibility of the corrective wave 4 to happen soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $61,007
WR2 - $54,857
WR1 - $52,632

Weekly Pivot - $42,280
WS1 - $43,798
WS2 - $38,065
WS3 - $35,092


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
MetaMask has announced an extension of the offer for institutional investors using a special version of the popular cryptocurrency wallet. It is about MetaMask Institutional's partnership with other companies, which will allow investors to take advantage of the possibility of decentralized finance (DeFi).

MetaMask Institutional was launched in May this year, but is only available to a small number of investors for the time being. The questionnaire that must be completed in order to enter the waiting list confirms that this is a solution for institutional clients. Access to MetaMask Institutional will be available to, among others, cryptocurrency and hedge funds and banks.

According to a representative of the MetaMask Institutional company, it is to offer the same functionality as a regular MetaMask wallet:

"MetaMask Institutional provides the same functionality and features as MetaMask - i.e. Connectivity to the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem spanning 10s of thousands of venues for trading, staking, lending, and borrowing across all EVM-compatible (Ethereum Virtual Machine) chains ".

In August this year, the number of active users of the MetaMask wallet exceeded 10 million. The introduction and popularization of a dedicated solution for institutional clients will certainly attract many new users.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $3,631 and the market is consolidating the recent gains. The bulls are not that keen to continue the rally straight away, so the short-term pull-back might occur soon. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $3,489 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,677. Please notice the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the short-term bearish view and even a deeper corrective cycle towards the level of $3,252.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,444
WR2 - $3,970
WR1 - $3,761

Weekly Pivot - $3,277
WS1 - $3,057
WS2 - $2,590
WS3 - $2,360


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021