Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
From April 11 to May 14, Bitcoin transaction fees increased by more than 1,250% from $ 0.38 to $ 5.16.

Although transaction fees have since fallen by 33.3% to around $ 3.44, they have risen again by 36.5% since the May 11 halving.

The average cost of transactions in the Bitcoin network increased by over 800% in just one month, with the highest transaction fees from July 2019 recorded in May.

Halving fees increased by more than a third, which resulted in a 105% increase in transaction costs in three days. Although fees reach their highest levels in almost a year, current transaction costs account for less than one-tenth of the record levels recorded at the end of 2017.

Before Bitcoin's second halving on July 9, 2016, fees increased by approximately 200% from $ 0.081 on May 1, 2016, to a peak of about $ 0.24 published both in mid-June and late July of that year.

Bitcoin's first halving on November 28, 2012 increased fees by 300% from November 26 to November 27, followed by a return to pre-halving levels within two days of reducing block prizes.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000 which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls for almost all week, but after the recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, the bears started to make more pressure on the market. In the result, two Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns were made side by side and the price reacted accordingly. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382 and $9,249. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 21 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The team responsible for the tBTC project, an attempt to transfer Bitcoin to Ethereum via decentralized depositories, closed the bridge just two days after launch.

The decision was revealed today by Matt Luongo, founder of Thesis, a company that supports tBTC as part of the Keep project. TBTC was launched on May 16 in the Ethereum network, operating just two days before performing a temporary shutdown operation.

Although the team did not specify the reason for disabling the protocol, it seems likely that this was due to a smart contract error discovered by Antonio Salazar Cardozo, head of labor engineering. Luongo explained that the contract has been checked many times, but it seems that this was not enough.

Luongo emphasized that tBTC will "rise again", probably after the team re-implements the agreed smart contracts.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the Triangle pattern and the breakout direction was down. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart). The local low was made at the level of $205.05 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $198.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 20, 2020 - Watch for the breakout fo the upward channel and symmetrical triangle to confirm downside rotation towards the level at $8.150

News:


As such, the difficulty of mining is set to self-adjust every 2016 blocks -basically every two weeks- in order to maintain a steady block interval. For instance, if it took more than two weeks to mine the previous 2016 blocks, the difficulty decreases. If it took less, mining difficulty is increased.

On May 20, the difficulty decreased by 6% to 15.14T. According to Glassnode, this decrease was expected and is consistent with the recent drop in hashrate after the halving.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the symmetrical triangle and upward channel. The downward targets are set at the price of $9,085 and $8,150. Main resistance is set at the price of $10,000




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
This week, hackers have attacked numerous supercomputers across Europe with the intention of mining cryptocurrencies. Supercomputers had to be turned off to investigate intrusions. Security incidents were reported in the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland. In addition, according to the report, another possible attack took place in an advanced computer center in Spain.

Most attacks appear to be targeted at universities. The University of Edinburgh, where the ARCHER supercomputer operates, reported the first incident on Monday. Then, the high-performance computing clusters of major universities in Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany also announced that they were attacked on Monday with similar security incidents and had to be closed. More attacks have taken place in institutions in other parts of Germany, Spain and Switzerland. Clusters at the Leibniz Computing Center or LRZ, an institute at the Bavarian Academy of Sciences, the Julich Research Center in the city of Julich in Germany, the Faculty of Physics of the Ludwig-Maximilians University in Munich, and the Swiss Scientific Computing Center (CSCS) in Zurich in Switzerland were classified as victims.

News shows that malware samples issued by the computer security incident response team have been reviewed by a US cybersecurity company. The Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT) is a pan-European organization coordinating research on supercomputers across Europe.

The company said the attackers probably stole the credentials of members of SSH universities in Canada, China and Poland in order to gain access to supercomputer clusters. Secure Shell (SSH) is a cryptographic network protocol for securely managing network services in an unsecured network.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high during the rally at the level of $216 and is currently consolidating the gains around the level of $210 in a narrow range. The momentum behind the move up is strong, but the market conditions are extremely overbought on the daily time frame chart, so the rally might be short-lived. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $217.65 and $225.84. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $204.50. Please notice, the ETH/USD pair might be developing the Triangle price pattern, which is a trend continuation pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and author of the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, again visited Twitter to announce his bullish position to Bitcoin. In a published tweet, Kiyosaki states that fear of a dying economy led him to buy more three assets, which he considers valuable outside of the traditional financial system: gold, silver and Bitcoin. The author's tweet describes how valuable he thinks every resource will be in the coming years.

"I bought more silver and Bitcoin gold. GOLD [currently] at $ 1,700. I forecast $ 3,000 in 1 year. Silver [currently] at $ 17. I predict $ 40 for 5 years. Bitcoin [currently] at $ 9,800. I anticipate $ 75,000 in three years."

In numerical terms, this forecast reflects the expected annual increase of around 76%, 19% and 97% for gold, silver and Bitcoin, respectively. This indicates, at least according to Kiyosaki's calculations, that Bitcoin has the most favorable profit potential out of three.

This is not the first time Robert Kiyosaki has used his platform to explain the benefits of Bitcoin and Blockchain. In recent months, the businessman has repeatedly talked about his faith in the future of these technologies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,381. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
By reducing the block reward by half, the only good information for Bitcoin miners is transaction fees. At the moment, they allow to minimize their losses due to recent halving, as a result of which the revenues of miners fell by over 60%.

On May 10, miners earned 2,188 BTC, on May 12 this figure dropped to 852 BTC, or 61%. Halving forced some miners to leave the chain, which led to a reduction in the network's hashrate rate. This, in turn, led to an increase in the block interval, which means that fewer of them were processed per unit time, thus reducing the number of block rewards available to miners.

What has happened so far can be called the "mini spiral of death" scenario. The only good news for miners is that network congestion has led to a sharp increase in transaction fees, i.e. from $ 0.62 at the end of April to $ 5.21 on May 15. Currently, as a result of this dynamic situation, transaction fees amount to 17% of miners' revenues. This is the highest percentage since January 2018.

Miners' revenues denominated in USD fell from $ 19.25 million on May 9, to $ 7.82 million on May 12. This is a decrease of 62%. The next correction in mining difficulty will occur in three days. However, current calculations predict growth because hashrate went up significantly before halving. However, before this happens, we will probably see a slight decrease in difficulty, which should help other miners.

It is possible that as Bitcoin matures and each subsequent halving, there will eventually be no more new Bitcoins, so miners will have to rely more on transaction fees. However, the higher they are, the less attractive the network will be for users.

It should be remembered, however, that many mining industry experts believe that the hashrate decline is upward for Bitcoins, as it will increase the profitability of other miners.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,888, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Mexican crypto stock exchange Bitso joined forces with Donadora's crowdfunding platform to launch a cryptography-based donation system. The platform will help raise funds to buy food for the most affected families affected by the crisis caused by COVID-19.

According to a report published by Mexican media, each food package delivered will be worth 150 Mexican Pesos. This amount will be enough to feed families of 4-6 people in a given week. Donation options include both fiat currency and various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. The local stock exchange said that cryptographic donations are a very effective method of financing by society. This is due to their decentralized nature and the fact that anyone in the world can participate in such an initiative.

Earlier, industry portals reported another cryptographic crowdfunding campaign carried out in April by the Italian Red Cross. The campaign was aimed at building advanced medical infrastructure to combat COVID-19 in Italy. Thanks to this venture, he managed to raise $ 10,000 in four weeks.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high during the rally at the level of $216 and is currently consolidating the gains around the level of $210 in a narrow range. The momentum behind the move up is strong, but the market conditions are extremely overbought on the daily time frame chart, so the rally might be short-lived. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $217.65 and $225.84. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $204.50.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 18, 2020 - Watch for the breakout for the upward channel to confirm downside rotation towards the level at $8.150

BTC News:


The first post-halving Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty adjustment is tomorrow, and it's likely bringing much-needed relief to BTC miners that experienced their third pay cut a week ago.

Just six days ago, following the historic third halving of BTC mining reward - lowering the block subsidy from BTC 12.5 to BTC 6.25 per block - it was estimated that mining difficulty, a measure showing how hard it is to compete for mining rewards, would rise 4.5% and above its March all-time high to 16.83 T. This number was dropping already at the time.

At this point, a bit more than a day before the next difficulty adjustment, that result seems highly unlikely, as, on Monday morning (UTC time), major Bitcoin mining pool BTC.comestimates a 3.14% decrease to 15.60 T. The last time the values were at approximately this level was in mid-February of this year, though at that time, the difficulty was on an ascending trajectory.

Trading recommendation:
Support level is set at the price of $9,400




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 18 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Visa has applied for the creation of a digital currency on Blockchain at the United States Patent and Trademark Office.

According to the published application, inventors Simon Hurry and Alexander Pierre of the Visa International Service Association in San Francisco applied for a patent for the digital currency registered on Blockchain and controlled by the computer of the central unit. The application cites Ethereum as a possible network, and the cryptocurrency itself would be a stablecoin. The application lists two points, one of which would indicate that "a digital currency was created for the amount associated with the denomination for the public key associated with the digital wallet." The second entry is about "removing physical currency from circulation in the currency system."

While the US dollar is specifically mentioned as one of the fiat functional currencies to be used, the application said that the patent could apply to other central bank digital currencies such as pounds, yen and euros: "The physical currency of the central bank anywhere in the world can be digitized. "


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $205 and made a new local high during the rally at the level of $216 (at the time of writing the article). The momentum behind the move up is strong, but the market conditions are extremely overbought on the daily time frame chart, so the rally might be short-lived. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $217.65 and $225.84.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 18 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Counterfeit products "Made in Italy" are sold in markets around the world. The Italian government began the fight against these counterfeits by investing 15 million euros in developing a solution to this problem based on Blockchain.

According to a new counterfeit report, the 'Made in Italy' label resulted in losses of EUR 12.4 billion in 2016 alone. Such losses directly affect the income as well as the future survival of many Italian artisans. The Italian fashion industry and the association of this country with handicrafts contribute to the prestigious reputation of the "Made in Italy" brand. If the name were registered as a brand, it would be the third most valuable property in the world (after Coca Cola and Visa).

The high status of this brand has led to an increasing problem with counterfeit goods. These counterfeits facilitate the theft of intellectual property and destroy the reputation of the label, brands and craftsmen represented by the label. They also cost billions of dollars to the entire industry. The Italian government has recognized this threat and identified Blockchain technology as a potential solution. Recently, the government has allocated EUR 15 million to support the rapid implementation of digital technologies, including the financing of a joint project of IBM Italy and the artisan community.

Aspects of the industry that are being considered for improvement include: authentication of goods and raw materials through the supply chain, secure book of intellectual property rights, demonstrable sustainability and ethical practices, and closer relationships between brands and their clients.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been going up all the weekend and now is hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. Any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020