Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Institutional investors are investing more in Ethereum than Bitcoin



Bitcoin continues its recovery after declining to the level of $ 40,746. Two rebounds from this level triggered another growth of the main cryptocurrency, but at this time, the descending trend line also remains relevant, which indicates that the quotes will most likely fall. It should also be noted that bitcoin is located below the Ichimoku cloud in the H4 time frame, which also testifies that the downward trend is still not over. In this case, we expect the price to return to the level of $ 40,746 and, possibly, break through it in the near future.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan, which is one of the largest banks in the world, published a report according to which institutional investors are investing more in Ether and less often in Bitcoin. This is proven by the data on futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. These data indicate that purchases of Ether futures are rising, while the number of Bitcoin futures is decreasing. Experts believe that Ethereum's growth is associated with the development of DeFi and NFT areas, while Bitcoin is more static in terms of the development of new directions. The fact that the project itself is constantly developing and attracting new investors also speaks in favor of the growth of ether. It also plays a role that Ethereum is less bitten by large trading volumes and a high price. Bitcoin has long been very expensive, which scares off many investors who are unable to buy even 1 bitcoin coin. At the same time, ETH is much cheaper and has a much higher growth potential, which means it is able to bring more profit than investing in BTC. Therefore, most experts are inclined to believe that both major cryptocurrencies will continue to become more expensive in the long term, both are important and necessary, but at the same time, Ethereum can show higher growth rates than Bitcoin.

At the same time, the Chairman of SkyBridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, said that Bitcoin will become the world's reserve currency sooner or later. Scaramucci urged everyone to study the crypto industry, even if they are not interested in Bitcoin and are skeptical about it. According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin is now really very volatile, but Amazon shares showed the same volatility 24 years ago. In addition, investing $ 10,000 in shares of this company at the IPO brought 21 million in income now. Therefore, Scaramucci said that everyone should clearly understand what Bitcoin is. This cryptocurrency is now a decentralized currency that operates under the rule of people, not central banks or governments. The head of SkyBridge Capital also advised everyone to invest about 5% of their portfolio in bitcoin.

It can be seen that opinions regarding the further movement of the bitcoin cryptocurrency differ. In the short term, a new collapse is absolutely not excluded. It is also possible that there will be a serious drop in Bitcoin's demand over the next 9 months, during which the Fed intends to completely complete the QE programs. From our point of view, Bitcoin will not be able to update its absolute highs in the coming year.



On the four-hour time frame, a downward trend is clearly seen. Bitcoin declined to the support level of $ 40,746 and broke through it even twice, but rebounded from it eventually. However, it can be recalled that the level of $ 43,852 was also broken on the third attempt, so nothing prevents Bitcoin from returning to the level of $ 40,746 again to break through it also on the third attempt. As long as the price is below the trend line, the downward trend remains.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 24, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
The US Federal Reserve (FED) continues to evaluate the prospects for the introduction of digital currency in the US and has yet to make a decision on this.

Speaking at a press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is investigating the merits of creating a digital dollar and plans to issue an article on the matter.

"We believe it is our duty to work on both public policy and technology to create the basis for an informed decision. The ultimate test that we will apply when evaluating a central bank's digital currency and other digital innovations is whether there are clear and tangible benefits that outweigh all costs and risks, said Powell.

Even though several central banks have launched their own CBDC, Powell said the Fed would be in no rush to join the trend.

According to the Fed chairman, the emphasis is not on speed, but on getting things done right, while stating that the United States is not lagging behind CBDC innovations.

CBDCs have come to the fore in the anti-cryptographic narrative endorsed by global banking regulators and government decision makers. Cryptocurrency critics in Washington, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, have called for the CBDC to be "legal digital public money" compared to the cryptocurrencies that the Senator is known to condemn.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving up after the termination of the ABC corrective cycle at the level of $2,644. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,185, $3,274 and $3,337. The bounce is impulsive and dynamic in nature, so there is a possibility of a new up trend to unfold soon, but so far the bulls were capped at 50% Fibonacci retracement seen at $3,159. The market conditions are bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might hit the level of $3,159 today (50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,190
WR2 - $3,923
WR1 - $3,621

Weekly Pivot - $3,349
WS1 - $3,067
WS2 - $2,787
WS3 - $2,498


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 24, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
The BTC Fear & Greed Index (Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index) is currently at 27/100 which means fear. Previously, such values were recorded at the end of July.

The original index was developed by CNN Business and shows the score on a scale of 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). The index is based on seven indicators (including changes in stock prices, interest in junk bonds and market volatility). The cryptocurrency version of the index works very similarly, taking into account volatility, volume, social media, domination and trends (initially, surveys among internet users were also used).

According to many investors, if the index is dominated by fear, it can be treated as an argument in favor of making purchases. Of course, this also works the other way around and if the index indicates extreme greed, you may consider selling the asset.

Today's fear (27/100) of price drops contrasts with extreme greed (76/100) just a month ago. At the same time, investors who find this indicator significant often read lower values as a signal that Bitcoin's price is undervalued. The greater the greed, the greater the likelihood that the cryptocurrency price is overvalued, which sooner or later may lead to declines.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has been seen approaching the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at $45,231. The momentum is now neutral, so if the bulls want to change to outlook for more positive, then the retracement level must be violated and the next technical resistance seen at the level of $46,371 broken. Otherwise, the bears might enter the market and cap the bounce. Any violation of the level of $38,261 would likely open the road to lower levels and the downwards momentum might increase then even more.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,433
WR2 - $52,068
WR1 - $51,114

Weekly Pivot - $46,800
WS1 - $44,786
WS2 - $41,130
WS3 - $39,325


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin falls, China is "tightening the screws" again

Bitcoin faces a hard time this week, as the cryptocurrency receives blow after blow without having time to recover.

First, a flight from risk amid the crisis of the Chinese developer Evergrande, then the unflattering comments of Gary Gensler from the SEC, and today another statement from China about a new wave of repression against cryptocurrency.

On Friday, ten of China's government departments, including the Central Bank, made a joint statement that they will completely eradicate "illegal" activities and ban cryptocurrency mining throughout the country.

The authorities have banded together to maintain "tough pressure" on the industry. The People's Bank of China says that cryptocurrencies are not only prohibited from mining in China. They are also prohibited from circulating in the country's market, and foreign exchanges are not allowed to serve investors in China via the Internet.

Payment companies and internet firms have no way of facilitating cryptocurrency transactions. Thus, the authorities intend to "decisively suppress speculative transactions with cryptocurrency and any activity related to these assets in order to protect investors and maintain order in the economic, financial and social sphere."

In parallel, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the launch of a thorough nationwide mining cleanup. The agency claims that such activities contribute little to China's economic growth, pose risks, consume huge amounts of energy and impede the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.

"It is imperative to eliminate cryptocurrency mining, which is key to ensuring the quality growth of the Chinese economy," says the NDRC notification to local authorities.

Against this background, panic resumed in the market. Bitcoin has lost almost all of its two-day gains, bouncing off the 44,807.24 resistance level, marked with a red dotted line. In addition, the BTC/USD price has again entered the important zone 40,977.38 - 41,980.24, conventionally separating the bull market zone from the bear market.

What can the market expect here? Technically, either consolidation for some time in the sideways, or breakout and consolidation below the zone 40,977.38 - 41,980.24. In the second case, the price can fall all the way to the July lows of about $30,000 per coin.

But it is worth noting that the area of 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 is quite strong support. Probably, they will not give it up so easily, a struggle can go on for it. A sideways trend and false breakouts are possible in this area. And even in this case, the victory can go to the cryptocurrencies. It is at least too early to bury the bull market from a technical point of view.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

China bans all cryptocurrency transactions; coins are falling

China has banned all cryptocurrency transactions and pledged to end illegal cryptocurrency mining, dealing the hardest blow to the trillion-dollar industry.



Transactions involving cryptocurrency will be considered illegal financial activity, including services provided by offshore exchanges, the People's Bank of China said on its website. They also added that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Tether, are not fiat currencies and cannot be traded.

This is the most brutal move China has taken against cryptocurrency, and strikes at the heart of a market that has flourished and attracted enthusiasts this year, including billionaire Elon Musk. China has long expressed dissatisfaction with cryptocurrency over its links to fraud and money laundering, as well as overuse of energy.

While there are likely to still be Chinese speculators on land, activity has shifted out of the country over the years due to increasingly stringent regulations, says Clara Medalie, research lead at data provider Kaiko.

"News from China definitely affects the markets because it can shake market sentiment, but the actual effect of another Chinese ban, for now, has minimal impact on the underlying market structure," she said.

China is home to a large concentration of the world's crypto-miners that require massive amounts of energy and thus hinder the country's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The country is the dominant player in cryptocurrency and more recently, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), it accounted for 46% of the world's hashing rate, which is a measure of the computing power used in mining and processing.

"Investors should expect a sharp price reaction as China pulls the wind out of Bitcoin's sails," said Anthoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo. "The recent bounce just below $40,000 is probably exhausted by now."

Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are back on the defensive after rebounding from July lows. In the US, regulators are also now strongly warning the industry that it could repeat the toxic culture before the 2008 financial crisis. Earlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Commission sent Coinbase Global Inc. notice that it may be sued for offering proposed accounts with high interest rates.

Vijay Iyer, head of the Asia-Pacific region for cryptocurrency exchange Luno in Singapore, said that while the Chinese government has made similar statements in the past, it is "a slightly nervous environment for crypto with recent SEC comments and the general macroeconomic environment with Evergrande news. Therefore, any comments of this kind will cause a sell-off of risky assets."

Bitcoin, Ether, and other digital tokens fell as China stepped up its efforts to curb cryptocurrency speculation and mining.

Bitcoin fell 7.8% to $41,220 as of 7:41 EST. The losses were more serious for other coins: Ether, EOS, Litecoin, and Dash fell by more than 7%. Crypto-related stocks have come under pressure as well: Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. fell 6% in pre-sale trading in the US.

The central bank of China has said that all cryptocurrency-related transactions are illegal, according to a Q&A statement on the PBOC website. According to guidelines on the website of the nation's economic planning agency, China has urgently eradicated cryptocurrency mining, and tough measures are essential to meet carbon emissions targets.

China scrutinized the crypto industry this year amid heightened concerns about the risks of fraud, money laundering, and overuse of energy.

In July, the central bank pledged to maintain strong regulatory pressure on cryptocurrency trading and speculation. China's stern approach is one of the reasons bitcoin prices plummeted in May and struggled to recover from previous record highs of over $60,000.

Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets, warned that bitcoin is approaching the $40,000 level or below.

"At this point, the risks are shifted in the opposite direction," Razaqzada wrote in a note to clients. "China is a major risk that could keep prices under pressure for a while."





Egor Danilov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC for September 24 - 27, 2021: Buy above $ 40,625 (5/8)



In the American pre-market on Friday, Bitcoin is falling towards the psychological level of 40,000, that is around 5/8 of murray located at 40,625. That level is the key. If the price manages to bounce and consolidates above this zone, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 43,750 and 45,500.

Bitcoin has been under downward pressure since September 7. The price is consolidating below the 200 EMA which means that the bearish force is prevailing. Since September 20, the price has tried three times to break the psychological level of 40,000, but has proved to be very strong and every time it bounced back.

Without a doubt, if BTC fails to break down and consolidate below 5/8 of murray at 40,625, this will be a signal that large investors are waiting for to buy back BTC. So, we can take advantage of buying above this level with targets at 45,500 that is the 200 EMA and the top of the bearish channel.

The 7/8 murray resistance level is being supported by the 200 EMA and the upper line of the bearish channel, which proves to be strong resistance for BTC. Only a sharp break above 47,000 will be a signal that the market is resuming its uptrend and could rise to the level of 53,125 where there is the extreme resistance of +1/8 of murray.

We could define the range to be able to trade BTC in the coming days. The key is to sell below 45,500 and buy only if it consolidates above 40,625. The eagle indicator is showing a sign of an imminent technical rebound in the next few hours.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 24 - 27, 2021
Resistance (3) 43,750
Resistance (2) 42,199
Resistance (1) 41,447

Support (1) 40,625
Support (2) 38,918
Support (3) 37,500




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Litecoin - the door is open for more declines

Litecoin stood at 147.54 at the time of writing and it seemed vulnerable to a deeper drop. It has ignored strong downside obstacles, so more declines are in cards. The pressure is high despite temporary rebounds. We cannot talk about a potential strong growth as long as the price action fails to print a bullish pattern.

Bitcoin's crash after China declared all crypto transactions illegal forced the altcoins to drop as well. BTC/USD dropped more than 9% from today's high of 45,159. On the other hand, LTC/USD plunged by around 14.90% from today's high of 166.65 to today's low of 141.82.


LTC/USD DEEP IN THE SELLERS' TERRITORY


LTC/USD resumed its sell-off after the fake news regarding Walmart. That huge spike up signaled a potential downside movement. It has found temporary support on the 149.26 static support (resistance has turned into support) but it has failed to stay above it or above the first warning line (WL1) of the Ascending Pitchfork.

It has dropped as much as 141.82 and now it has turned back to retest the broken downside obstacles. A new lower low, as well as a drop and closure below 141.82, may really activate further downside movement.


LITECOIN FORECAST
LTC/USD could extend its downwards movement if it stays below 149.26 and if it makes a new lower low to drop below 141.82. This scenario could signal potential declines towards 130.00 and 120.00 levels.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The National Bank of China has outlawed Bitcoin



The bitcoin cryptocurrency has crashed down once again. Back to the support level of $ 40,746, as we expected yesterday. However, this movement was not technical. However, we will talk about the reasons a little below. In the meantime, it should be noted that the downward trend for bitcoin remains, as the downward trend line remains relevant. The price has never managed to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud during the last round of decline. Thus, the bulls cannot develop growth now. But at the same time, they keep the pair above the level of $ 40,746, which is now a certain critical level for cryptocurrency. At the same time, the trend line and the level of $ 40,746 form a kind of narrowing triangle, in which bitcoin is now squeezed. Thus, sooner or later, one of the boundaries of this triangle will be broken and the quotes will move in this direction. Thus, it remains to wait for the breakdown of one or another line.

Meanwhile, the National Bank of China continues to wage war with cryptocurrencies. Earlier, the Central Bank of China completely banned mining on its territory and also introduced serious restrictions for all companies that provide certain services related to the cryptocurrency segment. This step provoked an outflow of miners from the Middle Kingdom, and bitcoin has been experiencing serious problems for a long time. However, the story did not end there, as it became known yesterday that the Central Bank of China completely banned all cryptocurrency operations in the country. Now any use of cryptocurrencies will be regarded as illegal activity and will be punished by law. The official statement of the central bank says that this measure is aimed at stabilizing risks for the financial sector, as well as maintaining national security and social stability. Thus, as we can see, any central bank in the world has the opportunity to completely ban bitcoin at any time. Just a year ago, such a scenario was discussed by some experts. However, many of them believed that it was impossible to implement it in practice since bitcoin was already too deeply embedded in the financial system of the whole world. However, as we can see, in practice, the one who has the opportunity to change something is right. Therefore, the future of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will depend on the actions of central banks and governments. As long as they allow the whole world to play a game called "cryptocurrencies", which have no intrinsic value, bitcoin can maintain a long-term and positive attitude. But nothing prevents the European Union or the States from banning it. It should be recalled once again that no major central bank benefits from a currency (or its equivalent) that is beyond its control, and transactions for which cannot be tracked. After all, with the help of bitcoin, you can not only conduct various illegal transactions and finance terrorism. However, you can also hide income or evade taxes, which again is not beneficial to any government. Therefore, the trend is emerging to tighten the legal framework for cryptocurrencies in many countries of the world.

The trend on the 4-hour timeframe remains downward. Bitcoin fell to the support level of $ 40,746 for the third time and rebounded from it again. However, we recall that the level of $ 43,852 was also overcome on the third attempt, so nothing prevents the "bitcoin" from returning to the level of $ 40,746 again and overcoming it on the fourth attempt. At the same time, fixing the quotes of the "bitcoin" above the trend line will return it to an upward trend.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Major players prevent Bitcoin from falling below $ 40,746



During the last few weeks, Bitcoin has plummeted several times. It all started in El Salvador, where the government's decision to make bitcoin a legal means of payment caused mass riots and protests. This ended (for now) with a complete ban of China on any cryptocurrency operations on its territory. From our point of view, only what should happen is happening. Firstly, Bitcoin is still on the path of its formation. If we assume that it will not disappear over time (and it is almost impossible to imagine such an option now), then at the moment the cryptocurrency is only about 10-15 years old. Such a period is very small in the context of the formation of a new financial instrument. Therefore, Bitcoin can grow up to $ 100,000 per coin, and up to $ 250,000 per coin in the future. This is indeed the case. However, the main digital asset cannot grow constantly, so there should also be pullbacks and declines. Secondly, as already mentioned, Bitcoin's "bullish" trend can be completed near the highs of the current year, and even the growth to the level of $ 52,000 is not evidence of the opposite. Thus, we believe that the correction scenario remains a higher priority. In the near future, Bitcoin may rush to the level of $ 31,100 again.

It is also worth noting that one should not trade cryptocurrency without technical signals. For example, Bitcoin currently remains in a narrowing triangle, which is formed by the support level of $ 40,746 (from which the price rebounded 4 times already in the last week), as well as a downward trend line. Therefore, a lot will depend on which of these lines traders will be able to break through. So far, it can be concluded that pending buy orders are set around the level of $ 40,746. As soon as the price drops to this level, the demand for Bitcoin rises, and the cryptocurrency rebounds upward. However, will major players ultimately be able to keep the cryptocurrency above this level?

The fact that most of the forecasts for Bitcoin's future value depend on its recent movements should also be noted. For example, when Bitcoin rises, a bunch of predictions immediately appear, indicating that the cryptocurrency has headed for $ 75,000 or $ 100,000. As soon as Bitcoin starts to plunge, many experts immediately begin to predict its further decline. For example, Anzhey Kovalchuk, TomiEx's chief strategist for cryptocurrencies, believes that Bitcoin will soon fall to $ 30,000 amid a complete ban on cryptocurrencies in China. According to Kovalchuk, this is not a speculative drawdown of the instrument, which the market will quickly and easily buy out. However, in reality, it shows that the market is buying a drawdown near the level of $ 40,746 and has done this at least four times over the past week. In this case, we are really waiting for the breakdown of one of the sides of the triangle.



There is still a downward trend in the four-hour timeframe. Bitcoin declined to the support level of $ 40,746 four times and rebounded each time. Along with this, the price also failed to consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud and above the trend line. Therefore, it cannot be said that the bears are currently weak. If the trend line is broken, it is suggested to buy Bitcoin with the targets of $ 46,600 and $ 51,350. But if the level of $ 40,746 is broken, then the decline may continue to the level of $ 31,100.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The average portfolio size on the Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets increased from $ 577.65 to $ 2069.16 in fiscal 2021, signaling a portfolio growth of 258.2%, according to stock market data compiled by Statista based on a recent BTC Markets survey.

Survey data shows that the average female and male wallet sizes over the 20-21 fiscal period on BTC Markets were $ 1,924.30 and $ 2,214.03, respectively. However, in 2020, the average portfolio size of Australian female investors was slightly above male investors.

Trading data on the stock market also showed a pattern of increasing investment demand from older investors. Based on data provided by BTC Market on the average initial investment in Australia, investors over the age of 65 have invested around $ 3,158.03, which is the highest value of any demographic group.

After a gradual decline across age groups, the youngest cryptocurrency investors, aged 18-24, tend to make relatively small investments, averaging $ 792.96. While older Australian cryptocurrency investors outweigh the new generation in initial investments, younger investors are relatively more active in terms of their day-to-day transactions.

In line with the above findings, a September report from the Finder financial comparison site shows that one in six Australians owns cryptocurrencies. The report suggests that, like many other users in the developed industrialized nations, Australians are increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies as a new asset class.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has been moving up and down without any particular direction over the weekend. The local low was made at the level of $40,741 and the bulls keep trying to continue to move higher. Despite their efforts, no new high was made over the weekend and the local high was seen at $44,316. The market participants are waiting for a clear breakout above the last high located at $45,115 or below the recent low seen at $39,536. The momentum remains neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,572
WR2 - $51,601
WR1 - $47,548

Weekly Pivot - $43,366
WS1 - $39,311
WS2 - $35,303
WS3 - $31,312


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021