Cryptocurrency Analysis

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SEC chief Gary Gensler changes tone on cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin continued to fall, triggered by the recent interview with SEC chief Gary Gensler. He talked about the industry and cryptocurrencies in general, but this time he seriously changed his tone saying: "Cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative asset class, the value of which in many cases is determined by nothing but the willingness of investors to pay." This goes far beyond his earlier statements, which suggests that the pressure from Fed and other officials who do not share the same sentiments on cryptocurrencies is quite high.



Gensler also noted that digital assets tend to rise and fall dramatically, without opening up anything new for investors. Thus, it is important to limit the negative impact of digital innovation on the stability of the US financial system. This is very difficult to oppose because it has long been clear to everyone that the new era of digital assets pushes the existing banking foundations, services and operating principles far into the bottom.

The SEC chief mentioned that the tasks of his department include protecting investors and ensuring the stability of the financial system, but this phrase occurs in almost every of his public interviews, which once again leads to the fact that regulation of crypto markets and exchanges cannot be done immediately and in the very near future. As such, outlook for Bitcoin and other tokens remains positive since interest in them also continues to grow.

On a different note, Coinbase recently announced that it is abandoning its plan to launch a credit and deposit program. The main driver of this decision was the threat of SEC that it will sue the company if it proceeds with the program

"Hundreds of thousands of clients from all over the country have registered with us, and we want to thank you all for your interest. We will not stop looking for ways to offer our customers innovative, proven programs and products, "said Coinbase.

Back in June, Coinbase introduced a lending program where users can earn interest on USD coins (USDC) at rates more than 50 times higher than traditional savings accounts. To be precise, users could earn a guaranteed 4% a year, which is not tied to the central bank's interest rate. Unsurprisingly, the SEC disagreed with this approach since the current interest rate in the US is 0-0.25%. It gave security as a reason why Coinbase should not launch the program, but more precise explanations were not provided.

Meanwhile, AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron asked users on Twitter if his cinema network should add Dogecoin to the list of cryptocurrencies it will accept for online payments. Aron confirmed last week that his company will accept Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash by the end of this year, in addition to Bitcoin for online payments.



Talking about Bitcoin, a lot currently depends on $ 42,580 because a break through it will result in a deeper fall to $ 37,300 and $ 33,800. But if investors manage to push the token to above $ 45,900, the rate will rise to $ 50,400 and $ 54,400.



In Ethereum, a lot depends on $ 3,000 because a break through it will result in a further drop to $ 2,700 and $ 2,400. But if investors manage to push the token above the level, the rate will rise to $ 3,330 and $ 3,700.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

AMC Entertainment may accept Dogecoin as payments



AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron asked Twitter users on Tuesday if the movie theater chain should add Dogecoin to the list of cryptocurrencies it will accept as online payments: "I sincerely want to hear your opinion, via this Twitter Poll. By year-end 2021, AMC will take Bitcoin, Etherum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash for online payments. I hear from many on my Twitter feed we should accept Dogecoin too. Do you think AMC should explore accepting Dogecoin? "

Aron confirmed last week that in addition to Bitcoin, AMC will accept Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash as online payments by the end of this year.

The Twitter poll garnered nearly 10,000 responses within 20 minutes of posting, of which over 70% favored adding Dogecoin.

But even though the responses were positive, it did not influence the movement of Dogecoin, so it continued to fluctuate around 19-21 cents yesterday.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the price is undervalued and will demonstrate growth by 4-6 cents this week. Then, by the end of this year, it will fluctuate between 35-45 cents.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Analysis of on-chain indicators after Bitcoin's another decline

The current week is developing negatively both for bitcoin and for the entire cryptocurrency market. Over the past day, the main cryptocurrency declined by 3% and it collapsed past the level of $40,000 for the first time since August, which is an alarming sign for the market. The technical indicators of the cryptocurrency are becoming more and more clearly bearish, which promises a breakdown of $42,00 and a further downward movement. At the same time, the analysis of on-chain metrics gives a contradictory, but at the same time, encouraging picture of what is happening.

On-chain activity is the actions of cryptocurrency market players who independently manage their crypto assets, which is why the record goes directly to the main blockchain. This statistic includes both private investors and large companies.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator is an indicator that displays the ratio of the market and realized the value of a particular cryptocurrency. This metric gives a more objective idea of the current value of the coin. The indicator evaluates the current position of investments of market players: if the market value of the coin is higher than the realized value (the value is above 0), then this indicates that investors have made a profit. If the ratio is approximately equal, then the players are in the minimum plus or even suffer losses.

Despite Bitcoin's two consecutive strong declines, the metric of realized and market value looks very optimistic. The indicator has dropped to 14%, but this is still an extremely high indicator for the current market position. Moreover, the MVRV chart shows an upward trend, which indicates an increase in investor profits. It is also worth noting the potential formation of the "Head and Shoulders" figure on the 30-day chart of the ratio of realized and market value. However, in order to draw certain conclusions, it is necessary to wait for the final formation of the figure and the breakdown of the "neck" line. If the figure is not formed, then we can safely talk about the continuation of the upward trend. In the case of the formation of the "head and shoulders", we can consider a change in the direction of the trend to a downward one.





The "Head and shoulders" figure is a chart that signals a possible trend reversal. It consists of three peaks, where the middle (head) is the highest, and the two side peaks are at about the same level.

Analyzing the on-chain indicator of network activity, a decreasing divergence between the number of unique addresses and the market value can be noticed. This eliminates the possibility of the formation of local bubbles in the bitcoin market and also contributes to the creation of strong support and resistance lines. If the trend towards an increase in the divergence between the price and the metric decreases in the future, we can count on a smooth and more predictable growth of Bitcoin. In addition, there is a tendency to increase network activity and the number of unique addresses in the BTC network, which is also a positive sign and indicates that the price will further grow in the near future.



Another important indicator that is able to display Bitcoin's state, and the probability of continuing the bull market, is the SSR metric. Recently, this indicator fell to a historical low, followed by a phase of significant growth. As of September 22, the indicator is also at a record low level, which may become a prerequisite for a further increase in the price of bitcoin. In general, all the main very-metrics indicate a resumption of the bullish trend in the bitcoin market, and so, it worth counting on price stabilization and the start of the purchase period and price growth.



Defining terms:
The SSR indicator is the ratio of the supply of stablecoins and bitcoins. Traders often use stables to buy BTC. Low indicators of this indicator indicate a high purchasing power of stablecoins relative to bitcoins.

Stablecoins are a generalized name for cryptocurrencies that are backed by physical goods or instruments (gold, oil). They are characterized by less volatility and fluctuations compared to classic cryptocurrencies.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Altcoins show no sign of giving up: Cardano launches first smart contracts and Solana reveals big system crash details

The cryptocurrency market continues to plummet, hoping to hit bottom and rebound with further recovery. Over the past 24 hours, the market lost 4% in capitalization and fell to $1.9 billion. The top 10 cryptocurrencies show a declining trend. Despite this, the main altcoin market stars Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) show a moderate uptrend. However, given the overall market situation, there is still a long road to go for a full recovery of the prices.

The Cardano project is trying to revamp its reputation after the Alonzo hard fork failed to launch. As a result, 99% of smart contracts were in timelock status and could not be used. According to Adapools, the first 200 smart contracts on the ADA mainnet are to be activated shortly. Unofficially, the ADA has more than 2,300 smart contracts ready to launch. The Cardano CEO pointed out that the recent update became a huge step for the altcoin and the DeFi sector so the developers decided not to rush. In the long run, ADA could compete with ETH in using the ecosystem to develop decentralized finance projects. Notably, some large projects have already been launched in Cardano's ecosystem, for example, Liqwid, a protocol for interest rate curves, and SingularityNET, a platform that allows the creation, sharing, and monetization of AI services.

Despite the encouraging news about the Alonzo hard fork first successes, the ADA price is still located at the local low level – $2,09. Over the past 24 hours, the price has lost 5% and daily trading volumes dropped to $4,7 billion. Meanwhile, the on-chain activity of the coin has been rising as well as the gap between a number of unique wallet addresses and the price, which is an extremely optimistic signal for ADA. On the daily chart the main technical indicators are gradually reversing to recovery: MACD is out of the red zone, but it is moving down, which indicates the weakness of the bulls and the strength of the bearish momentum. Stochastic and RSI are moving up to 40, which is a good sign of increasing long positions.



Compared to Cardano, Solana has a much worse situation. The developers admitted that the network shutdown was caused by a DDoS attack. A massive increase in transaction load, which "flooded" the transaction processing queue, triggered a system breakdown. The developers will release a more detailed report on the recent attack. They have completed the hard fork of the last block and restarted all protocols, which means the problem is fixed. Nevertheless, the price of the coin continues to fall despite the normal reaction to such a failure. Over the past 24 hours, SOL has fallen by 9% and as of 16:00, it is trading at $129. The 4-hour chart shows a bearish triangle, a breakout of which may give the price more space to grow even above $140. However, the technical indicators point to the beginning of a recovery and consolidation period. Given the weak trading volumes and a strong drop in on-chain activity, SOL is unlikely to fully benefit from the shy bullish momentum. At the same time, SOL has become the most profitable cryptocurrency over the past month, and therefore the process of profit-taking puts additional pressure on the price.



ADA and SOL have a promising future and are gradually recovering from a difficult period. The development of ecosystems and related areas like DeFi will be important as it may impact the price of the coins and allow them to record new highs. Considering all the above, it may be an ideal moment for entry into the ADA and SOL market.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

New lows for Bitcoin but bulls provide support below $40,000.

Bitcoin made a new lower low today at $39,490 even closer to our target. Price is now again above $42,000 for the second day in a row. Current price action suggests that buyers around $40,000-$39,000 are strong. At this area we also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracements

Red lines - Fibonacci extension targets

Blue line - resistance

Trend remains bearish in the short-term. Price is bouncing again from the $40,000 level and this is a positive sign as bulls show their strength. Bulls support Bitcoin around $40,000 and so far they continue to respect support. The chances for a move higher have increased. Breaking above the blue resistance trend line will signal the end of the downward move from $48,720 to $39,490. However we continue to be bearish medium-term as long as price is below $49,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for RIPPLE, XRP, for September 22 - 23, 2021: Buy above $ 0,8780 (EMA 200)



The price of Ripple is showing that it has a rebound potential because, according to the daily chart, it has tested on three occasions the support of the 200 EMA located at 0.8780. From this point, we notice that it is now rebounding and could recover part of its losses until reaching the level of the SMA of 21 located at 1.1069.

The decline of XRP intensified after the break around 1.08 and the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed after the fall of September 7. In our previous articles, we explained that this level had a bearish potential. The forecast has come true and the price reached our target.

Given that the 200 EMA has become very strong support, we believe that as long as the price remains above this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy XRP with targets at 1.1069.

As long as the price of XRP remains below the SMA of 21, any attempt or a technical bounce that approaches this level will be considered an opportunity to sell. Only a consolidation above 1.1069 will mean the resumption of the main uptrend.

In the coming days, a consolidation between the price range of 0.87 - 1.10 may occur. Therefore, we must look for opportunities to sell if the price approaches the resistance levels of the SMA of 21. Alternatively, we may buy Ripple if it remains above the EMA of 200.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 22 - 23, 2021
Resistance (3) 1,0165
Resistance (2) 0,9700
Resistance (1) 0,9327

Support (1) 0,8983
Support (2) 0,8403
Support (3) 0,8059


Trading tip for Ripple for September 22 - 23, 2021
Buy if XRP rebounds above 0,8780 (EMA 200) or buy above 0,9220 with take profit at 0,9766 and 1,1069 (SMA 21), stop loss below 0,8300.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin receives second blow: Cryptocurrency in decisive zone

Concerns about the Chinese developer Evergrande have eased slightly after news that the company appears to have struck a deal with the People's Bank of China to pay interest on its loans.

But today came the second blow through the comments of US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. In an interview with Washington, he expressed his belief that many crypto assets should be classified as securities, and then they will fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC.

Commenting on the current lack of regulation of crypto assets, Gensler noted that he feared that there could be problems with trading and lending platforms. And when that happens, many people will suffer.

Also, Michael Xu, acting head of the Office of the Comptroller, expressed a negative opinion about the crypto industry in a webcast with the Blockchain Association. Xu seriously warned cryptocurrency advocates, comparing decentralized finance in the crypto industry to the practices that led to the 2008 financial crisis.

"Crypto DeFi today is on a path similar to CDS in the early 2000s," he said.

As a result of all the shocks of recent days, the main cryptocurrency still fell under the strong mirror support level of 41,980.24, but it is still completely unclear whether this breakdown will turn out to be true.

If you look closely, the closing of Tuesday's daily candlestick did not go beyond the working support zone 40,977.38 - 41,980.24, and during today's growth, the price can also hold above it.

Given today's rebound and the fact that it is not over yet, it is possible that a bullish engulfing pattern could form. But these are only optimistic assumptions so far. However, if this happens and all of yesterday's fall is redeemed, it will be a very good sign.

In the meantime, the market has not got rid of the uncertainty. If the cryptocurrency can hold above $40,000 per bitcoin, the chances of recovery will remain. But a fall under this mark could be the beginning of a fall towards the July lows in the area of $30,000 per coin.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz states that the current trends in the cryptocurrency market do not cause concern under the condition. But again, he calls the retention above $40,000 in BTC a condition.

Moreover, Novogratz argues that the current correction is beneficial for the system. The market had been growing a few months before, and the correction was logical. Fundamentally, the crypto expert notes that the institutional and retail demand for cryptocurrency is growing, and he sees nothing but the interest and activity from the investor and corporate clients of Galaxy Digital.

Well, the $40,000 mark remains decisive for Bitcoin one way or another. Having decided on it, the main cryptocurrency and the market as a whole will reduce the current level of uncertainty.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano Summit 2021 should blow the minds of crypto enthusiasts and investors: the largest summit will take place on September 25-26



The largest and most ambitious event, one of the main events that will fully cover all issues regarding the Cardano crypto coin soon. The Cardano Summit 2021 is scheduled to take place on September 25-26, it will be held in six different locations.

Cardano is currently trading at a price of $2.20. Any crypto enthusiasts or investors who invest in Sardano can register on this site and participate in it live.

They will have the opportunity to talk about pressing issues with developers and key persons.

Sidney Vollmer, head of the Brand and Communications Department of Cardano, is confident that the summit will be attended by partnerships between holders, numerous investors and the Cardano management team. This will be an unprecedented summit, which people have not seen before.

Recall that at the Cardano Summit 2020, which took place last year, people were shown various reports about what is at the center of Cardano operations, and provided information about new hard forks and network improvements.

This Cardano Summit 2021 will be held in more than one place. It will be in London, Miami, Berlin, Cape Town, Wyoming and New York.

This is an unprecedented event and a great chance for investors and Cardano fans, holders and institutions to unite and talk with developers, find their like-minded investors.

For 2 days, the summit will be attended by key figures and the management team of Cardano, as well as developers and programmers.

More than 35 personal meetings will be held under the leadership of this community at the summit, which fully shows an absolutely decentralized and open organization with completely remote work.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin found support from the Fed



Bitcoin recovered quickly after the Fed held its meeting and announced its results. It can be recalled that the markets expected the Fed to announce the start of a cut in the stimulus program in September, but this did not happen. Jerome Powell clearly stated that the Fed is ready to wind down QE and this program will be fully completed in mid-2022, but the regulator will continue to buy bonds worth at least $ 120 billion a month in the next two months. Therefore, the US economy will receive money printed by the Fed for at least two more months, some of which will settle on the cryptocurrency market. Investors immediately cheered up, realizing that the Fed has not yet tightened monetary policy, and rushed to buy risky assets. Bitcoin quickly recovered to the level of $ 43,852, but the trend remains downward since there is a descending trend line. In this case, we are only talking about the current upward correction of the world's first cryptocurrency.

The news from the Fed is definitely positive for the entire cryptocurrency market. This can be confirmed by the fact that almost all major cryptocurrencies, and not just bitcoin, are rising after the meeting. But at the same time, it should be noted that Bitcoin's fundamental background remains quite weak. To simply put it, there is no particularly positive news for it now. The validity of the growth of quotes from $ 30,000 to $ 53,000 in the last few months has been repeatedly questioned. However, it should also be recognized that the market does not always need these very rationales in order to buy cryptocurrency. A rebound from the level of $ 43,852 could easily trigger another decline. But since we have a buy signal in the form of a price rebound from the level of $ 40,746, we are talking about the growth of the cryptocurrency.

What should be expected from Bitcoin in the future?

We still suggest that traders pay extra attention to technical analysis, namely to the support and resistance levels, which are greatly worked out by the cryptocurrency, and form the corresponding signals. For example, a rebound from the trend line may follow in the upcoming days, which will return the bears to the market. However, Bitcoin's consolidation above the trend line will return the cryptocurrency to the upward channel, despite the fact that the "bullish" trend is very much completed.

The time when the Fed begins to wind down the QE program, as well as what kind of "infrastructure bill" Joe Biden will take, which involves amendments to the Tax Code – transactions with cryptocurrencies will be taxed, and all transactions worth more than $ 10,000 will go through the Tax Administration, will be very important. The first event may come in November when the Fed holds its next meeting. The second can be expected earlier since the infrastructure plan has been considered by both chambers of Congress for quite a long time.



There is a clear downward trend in the four-hour time frame. Bitcoin fell to the support level of $ 40,746 and broke through it even twice, but eventually rebounded from it. However, it can be recalled that the level of $ 43 852 was also broken on the third attempt, so nothing prevents Bitcoin from returning to the level of $ 40 746 again to break through it also on the third attempt. As long as the price is below the trend line, the downward trend remains.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 23, 2021



Crypto Industry news:
As the hash rate of the Bitcoin network continues to increase and miners accumulate more and more power, the largest cryptocurrency becomes more and more difficult to mine.

The Bitcoin network released another correction of the mining difficulty, rising by 3.2% and reaching a difficulty level of almost 19 trillion, according to data from the Blockchain explorer BTC.com.

The latest correction represents the fifth consecutive increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty since mid-July, since the difficulty rate has risen by more than 31% from around 13.7 trillion - the lowest difficulty level since June 2020.

The new positive corrections followed a series of four consecutive falls in difficulties that began with a nearly 16% decline in late May amid environmental and social concerns about Bitcoin, as well as the suppression of cryptocurrency mining in China.

Despite posting five positive corrections in a row, the current Bitcoin mining difficulty rate is still far from its all-time high of more than 25 trillion recorded in May 2021.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty is a measure designed to reflect how difficult it is to mine a block of Bitcoins. Higher difficulty requires more processing power to verify transactions and dig new coins.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing low at the level of $39,526 and it looks like the ABC corrective cycle had been completed. The next technical support is seen at $38,261. Any violation of the level of $38,261 would likely open the road to lower levels and the downwards momentum might increase then even more. In the meantime, bulls had violated the technical resistance located at $43,607 and are heading towards the level of $44,143, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,433
WR2 - $52,068
WR1 - $51,114

Weekly Pivot - $46,800
WS1 - $44,786
WS2 - $41,130
WS3 - $39,325


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021