Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Square announces $20M loss on Bitcoin investments



While bitcoin continues its decline for more than a month, more and more players are changing their position from plus to minus. For example, Square, which previously invested $220 million in the purchase of "digital gold", said that it no longer plans to buy bitcoin. In its quarterly report, the company said that it suffered a loss of $20 million from the drop in the price of bitcoin to $45,000. "We have no plans for further investment in bitcoin," said Amrita Ahuja, the company's chief financial officer. At the same time, the CEO of the analytical company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, hinted as gently as possible that bitcoin may continue its decline in the near future. According to him, large investors are transferring their coins to cryptocurrency exchanges, "so there may be increased volatility in the near future." In reality, this means that the "whales" come to the exchanges with one goal - to sell their coins. Consequently, the supply of bitcoin on the stock exchanges increases, but the demand is far from a fact. "If you are a long-term investor in bitcoin, then you have no reason to worry. Your portfolio is the same as that of US institutional investors," said Ki Young Ju, and his claim is highly controversial.

Also, bitcoin could be pressured by news from unofficial sources that the activities of the Binance crypto exchange, which is one of the largest and most famous in the world, have been investigated by the US Department of Justice and the US Internal Revenue Service for violations related to money laundering and tax legislation. It is reported that at this time, no charges have been brought against the exchange. A representative of the exchange itself said that they take the legislation very seriously and always cooperate with law enforcement agencies. According to the exchange's director, Changpeng Zhao, they are simply cooperating with law enforcement agencies regarding "bad players."

All this news is called "negative fundamental background". And the more such news comes in, the more difficult it is to count on the resumption of the bullish trend. It is possible that an avalanche-like fall has begun, which will take bitcoin very, very far down. And with it the entire cryptocurrency market.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH falls into correction, ADA sets new all-time record: altcoin market forecast

The weekend turned out to be quite controversial for the altcoin market. On Saturday, the indicators of the main cryptocurrencies were actively growing, but the sudden collapse of bitcoin quotes did not leave the coins a chance. As a result, on May 17, the cryptocurrency market shrank by 8%, and the total capitalization fell to $2.1 trillion.

Ethereum confidently held its position near the all-time high of around $4,000, the main altcoin had all the prerequisites for continuing growth and setting a new record. If you look at the charts, you can see that the fall in ETH/USD quotes began on May 16, when bitcoin indicators began a downward movement. Musk's negative statements finished off BTC, which began to affect the performance of all cryptocurrencies. As a result, the impending correction of Ethereum was aggravated by a sharp collapse of the entire market. As of 13:00 UTC, the ETH/USD pair is trading at $3,520. The asset lost 7% in price, and the weekly dynamics of changes in quotes became negative (-11%). At the same time, ether is the only coin that has sufficient prerequisites for the resumption of growth. It is likely that the situation of a week ago will be repeated when ETH recovered earlier than others after the collapse of BTC and dragged the entire market with it.



A completely different dynamic is shown by the Ripple token, which managed to overcome the difficult psychological threshold of $1.4-$1.45. The cryptocurrency shows an excellent result and almost completely recouped the fall of yesterday. Judging by the charts, the token made a sharp jump on Saturday, which supported the market, and the asset continued to grow in smaller jumps. However, the collapse of bitcoin pushed the cryptocurrency to the level of $1,359, from where XRP resumed growth. As of 13:00 UTC, the crypto asset is quoted at $1.54 and continues to grow in price. The dynamics of changes in the value of the cryptocurrency over the past few hours have become extremely positive (+3.5%). The main reason for such rapid growth in altcoin quotes was another victory for Ripple in the courtroom. The company has gained access to documents that can prove that the regulator does not consider cryptocurrencies to be securities. This news not only contributes to the growth of the token quotes but also can inspire optimism in all market participants.



Litecoin indicators, like ETH, collapsed after the decline of bitcoin and the saturation of the crypto market with negative news. As of 13:00 UTC, LTC/USD quotes are quoted at $290, and the cryptocurrency itself has lost 8% in price. The dynamics of price changes for the week is -25.5%, which indicates the complete helplessness of the asset without the positive influence of external factors. The situation is different for altcoin ADA, which set a new all-time record at around $2.4. This allowed the cryptocurrency to climb to the 4th place in terms of capitalization with a result of $69.7 billion. However, the asset failed to overcome the negative of the market and dropped in price by 8% over the course of the day. As of 15:00 UTC, the coin is quoted at $2.18. The cryptocurrency has its own reason for negativity, because billionaire Mark Cuban condemned the coin, doubting the possibility of its practical application.





Despite the prevailing amount of negative news, the cryptocurrency market will begin to actively recover its positions in the next few days. The main driving force will be the XRP token, which gains investor confidence and allows the market to overcome the collapse caused by bitcoin. Ether will also begin to recover its positions, which will help weaker altcoins resume growth. However, it should be noted that such a scenario is possible with a more or less positive news background.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 18, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Michael Novogratz's Galaxy Digital company published on Friday a report entitled "On Bitcoin's Energy Consumption: A Quantitative Approach to a Subjective Question", providing access to its open source calculation methodology.

A study by the Galaxy mining arm estimates that the annual electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network is 113.89 TWh, including the energy consumption of miners, the energy consumption of the pool, and the energy consumption of the nodes. According to Galaxy estimates, this is at least two times lower than the total energy consumed by the banking system and the gold sector on an annual basis.

Galaxy Digital Mining claims that while Bitcoin's energy consumption is transparent and easy to track in real-time with tools like the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, assessing energy use in the gold industry and traditional financial system is not that simple.

"The banking sector does not report electricity consumption data directly," the report reads. Moreover, the retail and commercial banking system requires multiple settlement layers, while Bitcoin offers clear final settlement. Based on Galaxy's estimates of the energy consumption of banking data centers, bank branches, ATMs and card network data centers, the total annual energy consumption of the banking system worldwide is estimated at 263.72 TWh.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another wave down to the level of $42,082 and bounced off the lows towards the immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $45,710, $46,371 and $47,077. Please notice, the market still trades under the trend line resistance. The zone located between the levels of $43,097 - $41,794 is the key short-term demand zone and any violation of this zone will lead to another wave down towards the level of $40,942 and $39,969. The market is in full control of bears and only a strong breakout above the level of $47,077 would temporary change the outlook to bullish (but still corrective in nature).


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $67,286
WR2 - $62,987
WR1 - $51,788


Weekly Pivot - $47,852
WS1 - $35,984
WS2 - $32,386
WS3 - $20,567


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to lose position because of Elon Musk

Elon Musk has again put fear among investors that the cryptocurrency market is overheated, not to mention at the complete mercy of speculators. His recent Twitter posts compelled traders to sell their positions, so as a result, the value of Bitcoin slipped again, continuing the bearish trend it was experiencing for two weeks already. Many believe that Musk is doing this to test the strength of the market, or to make Bitcoin cheaper so that he can gain new large positions.



But some are convinced that Musk really sold his positions, especially after the large inflow seen on various cryptocurrency exchanges. To add to that, Musk responded to a Twitter post that says he might have sold his positions already given the amount of hate he is receiving. Musk answered "Indeed", shaking the confidence of investors. Such led to a 10% drop in Bitcoin, bringing it to a new three-month low. Although on Monday morning, he made it clear that Tesla has not sold its bitcoins yet, so the price bounced back to $ 45,000.

Obviously, Musk's statements have been the main driver of the crypto market this year. Bitcoin hit $ 64,000 when Tesla revealed that it invested $ 1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency. And on a Twitter post, Musk said Tesla's recent earnings report proves that Bitcoin can be used as an alternative to keeping cash on a balance sheet.

But now, pressure on the market has returned, even amid Musk's assurances that Tesla has not sold a single bitcoin. Apparently, there was a one-day transfer of 20,000 BTC to Bitfinex last week, bringing the rate down below $ 58,000.



And just this weekend, price has fallen below $47,500, hitting $43,000. If Bitcoin continues to trade downwards, it might reach $37,900 this week, or as low as $33,300. The range will be $39,500 - $33,300. But if Bitcoin returns to $47,500, it will have an opportunity to reach $52,000 again.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin stayed on the edge of the abyss!



By some miracle, Bitcoin was kept from fixing below the level of $43,852. However, it still held on, so the implementation of the correctional scenario is currently on pause. Recall that bitcoin has not had a strong fundamental background to continue to grow in recent months. Many consider the first cryptocurrency and the entire market to be overheated. However, it still cannot be said with certainty that the upward trend will not ultimately be resumed. At the moment, it just looks the other way around. We saw a classic three-wave corrective structure. Thus, now, when bitcoin failed to overcome the level of $43,852, and the correction looks impressive, it may just start to grow. However, this requires not only staying above the $43,852 level, but also a rebound from this level. It is not yet clear and unknown whether the buyers will be able to save bitcoin from the edge of the abyss. After all, it is possible that in recent days, bitcoin has been sold by large investors, both private and institutional. If so, they now need new reasons to start investing in bitcoin again.

Meanwhile, the crypto community lashed out at Elon Musk for his posts on Twitter regarding Bitcoin and Dogecoin. According to many market participants, Musk, with his statements and comments on cryptocurrencies, greatly affects the entire market, which often leads to losses. Moreover, many believe that Musk's posts have nothing to do with reality at all. Some experts say that Musk has absolutely no understanding of how money works. Others believe that Musk is simply provoking people online. Also, the crypto community is not happy with the fact that Musk is promoting the Dogecoin cryptocurrency, with which, according to the developers of this token, he has been associated since 2019. At the same time, Musk began to criticize Bitcoin again and publish false information about the first cryptocurrency on Twitter, causing irreparable damage to its ecosystem. True, most of the accusations against Elon Musk still sound far-fetched. Formally, Elon Musk has every right to comment on bitcoin and other altcoins. It is not his fault that the cryptocurrency market treats his statements as signals from the Fed about a change in monetary policy. On the other hand, Musk can use this factor for his personal interests and with the aim of manipulating the markets. According to some experts, Musk's statements can lead to a strong drop in bitcoin quotes, so people who own bitcoin have less money for everyday needs. Although, it is unlikely that the critic who said this is worried about ordinary people. Rather, it's about billionaires who are also losing money because of the words of the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla.



Technically, bitcoin dropped to the support level of $43,852, but failed to overcome it on the first attempt! Now is a very important time for bitcoin. In principle, the correction looks complete, so now either the downward movement will continue, but within the framework of the downward trend, or a new round of upward movement will begin within the existing upward trend. Thus, we would suggest cautious purchases from the level of $43,852. But if BTC overcomes this level, its fall will continue with the targets of $38,467 and $30,501.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Resistance zone on the test
31 July 2019

Industry news:
While other cryptocurrency exchanges work on the development within their exchange, Kraken took a huge leap as it acquired Interchange, accounting reconciliation and reporting service provider for cryptocurrency hedge funds, asset managers, and fund administrators. The exchange did not disclose any financial details about the deal.

BTC did rally to the level of $10.000 and there is a good resistance there. Resistance trendline and previous swing high are great area for potential selling opportunities. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities.


Technical picture:


Blur rectangle – Support ($9.080)

Blue horizontal line – Resistance ($10.200)

Blue horizontal line – Resistance 2 ($10.730)

Blue line – Pitchfork warning line 1

On the 4H time-frame I found that Stochastic oscillator is in overbought condition and that there is potential down flip, which is sign that buying at this stage looks risky. MACD oscillator is still in the negative territory below the zero, which is another indication for potential downside.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 01 August 2019

Horizontal trading conditions in low volatility continue in this pair

Crypto Industry News:
Nasscom, the leading Indian trade organization, said it was against a widespread ban on cryptocurrencies that had recently proposed a government panel in the country.

"Nasscom believes that the recent proposal of the inter-ministerial governmental committee to ban all cryptocurrencies, except those supported by the government, is not the most constructive measure. [...] Instead, the government should work on creating a risk-based framework for regulating and monitoring cryptocurrencies. and tokens, "we read in a local magazine.

According to the publication, Nasscom claims that cryptographic projects can always be tested in regulatory sandboxes before commissioning. The company also believes that banning cryptography will only serve to push off legitimate companies that already adhere to compliance rules.

Nasscom believes, however, that work should be done to create a regulatory framework to reduce illegal activities in the cryptographic space:

"We should strive to create a regulatory framework that will constantly monitor and prevent illegal activities. The regulation would allow law enforcement agencies to better prepare themselves to understand these new technologies, enable them to collect data on criminal proceedings and take enforcement actions".


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Oterwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $247.21
WR2 - $236.28
WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37
WS1 - $191.97
WS2 - $182.25
WS3 - $161.51


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 31 July 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Fortaleza, the main city of Northeast Brazil, will start to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for bus tickets until the end of 2019.

Local transport services have announced an initiative to enable citizens to pay for bus tickets with credit and debit cards, as well as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This initiative aims to reduce operational costs in the ticket system.

The entity, known as the Cooperative of Independent Transport of Passengers of State of Ceara (Cootraps), said passengers would be able to pay for their travels with Bitcoin via smartphones by scanning the QR code.

While Cootraps reportedly stated that the incoming system would also accept other cryptos in addition to Bitcoin, the co-operative did not explain any further details in this matter.

However, Carlos Roberio Sampaio, CFO at Cootraps, reportedly said that the new payment methods would reduce the amount of bureaucracy required and attract more users because the unit expects to simplify payment procedures by processing them using electronic coupons. In addition, passengers will be able to pay for tickets without disturbing the driver's work.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced out of the trading range and currently is testing the trendline resistance around the level of $9,753. Any breakout above this trendline will be considered bullish breakout with a target at the level of $10,166. The increasing momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,468
WR2 - $11,040
WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661
WS1 - $8,704
WS2 - $8,287
WS3 - $7,289


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Analysis of Bitcoin for July 31, 2019: price pushes above $9,500

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today, and ahead of it bitcoin has managed to regain certain momentum over USD, having resided at the edge of $9,400 area recently. Investors from all around the world are waiting for the US rate cut which is likely to provide support to bitcoin.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been facing a bout of choppy trading as of late that has led bitcoin's price into a key trading range that will likely set the tone for the overall crypto trends in the coming days and weeks. Moreover, bitcoin's fundamentals appear to be building strength, as the cryptocurrency's hash rate has now reached a fresh all-time high which may correlate with positive price action in the immediate future. Although it is unclear for now as to whether or not this bullish fundamental factor will be enough to propel bitcoin's price higher, the upward or downward breaks are likely to determine the market trend in the nearest future.

Additionally, bitcoin and other digital currencies are finally entering the mainstream political discourse. The launch of Facebook's Libra lit somewhat a fire to address the issues that the Silicon Valley-backed cryptocurrency could bring. US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin echoed Trump's concerns in his own comments. Mnuchin claimed that he did not believe USD to be an asset for criminals. He remarked that cryptocurrencies should be subject to more stringent regulations to deter illicit activity.

On the other hand, the US ADP non-farm employment change report is going to be published today. The number of jobs is expected to increase to 150k from the previous figure of 102k, while the employment cost Index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%. Ahead of the NFP on Friday which is expected to have a dovish result with a decrease to 163k from the previous figure of 224k, today the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its rate to 2.25% from the previous value of 2.50%.

As of the current scenario, USD, having dovish bias as the interest rate cut is highly probable today, is likely to lose ground against bitcoin which is expected regain momentum and push above $10,000 area. However, certain spikes and increased volatility may be observed along the way.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price has bounced off the $9,400 area with a daily close recently which is currently being carried by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line as support along the way. The price has breached above $9,500 and is heading towards $10,000 area. However, the Bearish Continuous Divergence is evolving along the way, so the price is expected to retrace before breaking above $10,000 area with a daily close in the coming days. As the price remains above $9,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 9,000, 9,400, 9,500

RESISTANCE- 10,000, 10,500, 11,000, 11,500, 12,000

CURRENT BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Volatile






Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 01 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has flagged an online scam offering Bitcoin.

On July 31, the Singapore Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority issued an official warning stating that the agency had become aware of a website that invited Internet users to invest in Bitcoin through an article containing falsified information.

According to MAS, the scam website refers to fabricated statements falsely attributed to Goh Chok Tong, a local politician who in 1990-2004 was the second prime minister of Singapore. The statements were "either false or removed from the context and used in a misleading manner" - noted the regulator.

As reported by MAS, the name of the former prime minister was used to persuade people to pay at least $ 250 to a trading platform called Bitcoin Loophole, which claims to perform automated transactions on behalf of users. The platform also demanded credit card or bank account details, the regulator added, recommending the public to exercise special care and avoid sending any information to website owners.

In January 2019, the MAS issued a warning against many fake websites claiming that the Singapore Government officially accepts cryptocurrencies. As in this new case, the fraudulent program was distributed via various websites and offered opportunities to invest in the crypto using false information.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has broken the short-term trendline resistance and almost tested the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. After the Shooting-Star candlestick pattern was made at the level of $10,109, the market reversed slightly and is currently trading around the level of $9,850. In order to continue the breakout, the bulls have to move higher towards the level of $10,166 and then towards the level of $10,636.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,468
WR2 - $11,040
WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661
WS1 - $8,704
WS2 - $8,287
WS3 - $7,289


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019