Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC analysis for December 14,.2021 - Rejection of the key support

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been rejected from key support zone at the price of $46,280 and I see potential for the upside rotation.


Trading recommendation:

Due to rejection of the support in the background, I see potential for the upside rotation towards upper extreme.

Watch for buying opportunities with the upside targets at the price o$50,350 and $51,845.

Stochastic is showing oversold condition and the fresh bull cross, which is sign for the further upside rotation.

Key support is set at the price of $46,280






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for December 14 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has finally carved a meaningful bottom around $46,000 on Monday, falling in-line with expectations. The crypto seems to be ready to rally through all-time highs above $70,000 mark in the next few trading sessions. Only a break below $40,000 will change the bullish scenario and bring back bears in control going forward.

Bitcoin had earlier dropped through $42,000 mark, which was the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the upswing between $28,600 and $69,000 respectively. Furthermore the crypto has now found support around $46,000, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the smaller upswing between $42,000 and $52,000 respectively (not shown here).

Bitcoin should be ready to push higher through all-time highs provided $42,000 and $40,000 supports hold well going forward. Immediate resistance is around $52,000, followed by $60,000; while support is around $40,000 levels respectively. Watch out for a break higher through $52,000 mark for further acceleration.


Trading plan:

Potential rally through $70,000 against $40,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin falls for fifth week in row



On Monday, bitcoin weakened to the lowest levels of the day as the largest cryptocurrency's fall from an all-time high extended into a fifth consecutive week.

The digital asset posted a decline of more than 3.5% to $48,198 in New York trading. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index fell 1.2%, while popular DeFi tokens such as Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot also dropped.

Chief market strategist Mark Chandler said: "The idea that volatility would reduce as it matured hasn't really materialized. Volatile is a killer and its other supposed features, such as hedging against inflation, seem bogus."

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been falling for the fifth week in a row.



Compared to most traditional asset classes and securities, digital tokens are traded 24 hours a day, often on loosely regulated online exchanges around the world.

Bitcoin extended gains after data showed US consumer prices increased at the fastest pace. This confirms that the coin is insurance against the ravages of inflation. On December 4, the token showed a drop of 21% overnight and a few hours later recouped about half of its losses, but it is still about 30% below the record high of almost $69,000 reached on November 10.

Proponents have long argued that bitcoin and other digital assets represent a kind of special asset class that can act as a hedge against fluctuations in other sectors of the financial market. Only 21 million Bitcoin will be put into circulation under the computer protocol that governs issuance. That figure isn't expected to be reached for several decades.

"It's less of an inflation hedge and much more of a risk asset," Art Hogan, chief markets strategist at National Securities, said.






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The total volume of Bitcoin in circulation reached a significant milestone this morning, with 90% of the total maximum supply being mined.

Current figures show that Bitcoin in circulation has reached 18,899 million, which means that only 10% of the total supply is left to be mined. While it took around 12 years to mine the first 90% of BTC, the rest will take a little longer.

Bitcoin's limit is 21 million coins set by its anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This restriction is written in the Bitcoin source code and enforced by network nodes. Bitcoin's supply cap is critical to its value proposition as a currency and investment tool.

Since the Bitcoin blockchain only creates new BTC as a reward for miners verifying new blocks, halving ensures that less Bitcoin is produced as the total supply in circulation increases. As of May 2020, miners have earned 6.25 BTC for each new block verified. This rate will drop to 3.125 BTC per block in the next halving in 2024.

By 2040, the block reward will be reduced to less than 0.2 BTC with only 80,000 Bitcoins left to be won. Mining the last Bitcoin will take nearly 40 years.

Bitcoin's price started the week with a new $ 50,000 rejection. This is almost a 30% decrease from the all-time high of $ 68,789 in November 10th.


Technical Market Outlook

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $45, 577 as the price is getting away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $51,913 (Pin Bar high) and $53,333. The momentum is picking up from the oversold conditions, currently hovering just below the level of fifty on the RSI (14) indicator. Despite the recent complex and time consuming corrective decline in form of ABCxABCxABC pattern, the larger time frame trend remains up and only a clear and sustained breakout below the wave C low at $41,678 would change the outlook to bearish again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $56,908
WR2 - $54,309
WR1 - $52,119

Weekly Pivot - $49,669
WS1 - $47,511
WS2 - $44,768
WS3 - $42,652


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of $41,678 and the market is ready to continue the up trend. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $39,474 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $39,000 would be considered as a long-term trend change due to the lower low placement).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for December 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The Russian central bank continues its strict policy on the cryptocurrency industry, officially banning mutual funds from investing in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

The Bank of Russia has published an official statement on the regulation of investment opportunities by investment funds.

Despite the increase in the number of assets available for investment by mutual funds, the document prohibits fund managers from buying cryptocurrencies as well as "financial instruments whose value depends on the prices of digital assets."

The statement emphasized that mutual funds are not allowed to provide cryptocurrency exposure to both qualified and non-qualified investors.

The Bank of Russia previously recommended asset managers to exclude cryptocurrencies from exposure to mutual funds in July 2021. According to a report by the local news agency RBC, there were no Russian mutual funds with exposure to cryptocurrencies, even though there had been no formal prohibition so far.


Technical Market Outlook

The ETH/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $3,666 as the bears approach the key short-term technical support. In a case of a further move down, the next target is seen at the swing low at the level of $3,438. Moreover, in order to extend the bounce, bulls need to test and break through the short-term trend line resistance located at the level of $4,300 and head towards the level of $4,435. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions at the H4 time frame, the bears are still on control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,978
WR2 - $4,721
WR1 - $4,397

Weekly Pivot - $4,163
WS1 - $3,831
WS2 - $3,582
WS3 - $3,258


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated, so the next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum diamond triangle activated

Ethereum was plunging at the time of writing after escaping from a major chart pattern. It's traded at 3,739.00 above 3,669.48 today's low. Today, ETH/USD registered an 11.45% drop from 4,144.01 today's high to the daily low.

The price of Bitcoin dropped forcing Ethereum to slip lower as well. The crypto failed to stay in the buyer's territory. Then, it has opened the door for a deeper drop. In the short term, the bias is bearish, so ETH/USD could approach and reach near-term downside obstacles.

ETH/USD downside pressure



Ethereum failed to stay above the 3,958.67 - 4,025.00 area. It has registered an aggressive breakdown through the confluence area formed at the intersection between the uptrend line and 3,958.67, having activated the Diamond pattern.

The current breakdown from the major pattern signaled a potential further drop. Stabilizing below the S1 (3816.17) and under 50% retracement level may signal more declines towards 61.8% (3,499.60) retracement level, and down to the S2. Also, 3,470.02 lower low stands as a downside target.


ETH/USD forecast

The aggressive breakdown through the confluence area formed at the intersection of the uptrend line with the 3,958.67 signaled downside continuation. After the current sell-off, we cannot exclude a temporary rebound. A bounce-back could bring new bearish opportunities.

Only a major bullish pattern could announce that the corrective phase is over and that ETH/USD could develop a new leg higher. It remains to see how it will react around 61.8%. A valid breakdown below this level could really announce a larger drop.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrencies Take on Political Content: Tether Becomes Official Currency for Anti-Junta Gangs in Myanmar


The exiled government, led by supporters of ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, has recognized Tether as the official currency. This step was a consequence of the start of raising funds for a campaign aimed at overthrowing the current military regime.

From this day on, Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG) officially accepts Tether (one of the stablecoins designed to be used as a dollar proxy) for "internal use to simplify and speed up ongoing trade, services, and payment systems," NUG Finance Minister Tin Tun Naing said Sunday in a Facebook post. No other details were reported.



The NUG is an alliance of leaders of the ousted civilian government and pro-democracy groups in Myanmar. Although they do not control territory or hold positions of power in Myanmar, the group declared war on the junta in September, leading to an escalation of fighting between the military regime and local resistance groups.

The shadow government's adoption of cryptocurrencies underscores its denial of the legitimacy of the Myanmar Central Bank, which declared all digital currencies illegal last May and threatened with jail time and fines for any violators.

This step was another in a series of decisions by individual governments to assess the potential benefits of introducing or creating cryptocurrencies or stablecoins as part of their financial system. El Salvador became a pioneer in this matter when, on September 7, it made bitcoin legal tender along with the dollar, which at the moment has become the biggest test of its usefulness as a medium of exchange.

NUG deals not only with cryptocurrencies. The group raised $9.5 million in the first 24 hours from selling what was marketed as "Spring Revolution Special Treasury Bonds" to Myanmar's diaspora worldwide to help overthrow the current government led by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. The bond looks like a direct lending instrument.

Sales were halted for a week until December 6 due to high demand, and there is little information yet on how much money has been raised. NUG also plans to appoint representatives in different countries to help with sales.

Last week, the NUG announced that these so-called bonds would soon be sold in Myanmar, which caused a new wave of discontent with the regime when a local court found Suu Kyi guilty of inciting dissent against the armed forces. She was sentenced to four years in prison, although the term was reduced to two years in a place of detention, the location of which is currently not disclosed.

The NUG seeks to raise $1 billion from the sale of bonds, which, according to the junta, violates anti-terrorism laws.

The group seems to be focused on cryptocurrencies like Tether, which can be traded at peer-to-peer points that allow users more privacy. However, the stablecoin has been at the center of speculation for many years that it was not actually backed by dollars, as stated.

From this point of view, contributions and donations that are made for the benefit of the revolution can be buried under the ruins of cryptocurrency speculation if the digital market collapses. However, the pro-democratic attitude of the revolutionaries can play into the hands of BTC and its brethren thanks to the fame of the financial instrument of the fighters for justice, which will form a strong counterweight to the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of laundering money obtained by criminal means.





Egor Danilov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin and the Fed meeting: how the central bank can create a favorable environment for cryptocurrency growth


It will be a busy week for the fiat currency market with five central bank meetings scheduled. Trades promise to be volatile, which may affect the dynamics of bitcoin.

How are the two markets related and why do crypto traders need to keep an eye on Wednesday's Fed meeting?

Fed Tightens Monetary Policy—How Will Bitcoin React?

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, commenting on this week's events, notes that the Fed's decisions could affect Bitcoin and Ether. The anticipated cut in the Fed's bond-buying program and higher interest rates are likely to create a macroeconomic environment that could create favorable conditions for the first and second cryptocurrencies next year.

An expert on the pages of the December 2021 Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report believes that deflationary forces in the market could be a catalyst for a new price momentum for top cryptoassets.

McGlone argues this is the inverse correlation of cryptocurrencies with stocks. And if in the coming months the stock market sags a little against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy by the Fed, Bitcoin may benefit from this.


Catalysts for Bitcoin and Ethereum Growth in 2022

McGlone said in his Global Cryptocurrency Outlook report that China's crackdown on cryptocurrencies has set the vector for wider adoption in other major countries. The expert notes that the United States can create a regulatory environment that will support the industry. And this will give an impetus for further growth in prices in the market.

Another argument for market growth is the rapid growth of revolutionary cryptocurrency-related technologies such as NFTs and crypto dollars. They could become more widespread in the United States, and this, in turn, is likely to strengthen the status of bitcoin as a digital store of value and lead to further growth in its value.


Fed and rising inflation

The main agenda for the Fed is rising inflation, which seems to be starting to spiral out of control. Potential market pressures on bond yields and possible catalysts for central bank liquidity could make Bitcoin a "major beneficiary."

McGlone stresses that Bitcoin could find itself in a "win-win" situation if the stock market plunges as a result of the reversal of the expected Fed tightening in 2022. He believes BTC is likely to face hurdles if the stock falls. But if this scenario leads to pressure on the bond market, new moves towards central bank liquidity could contain yields and benefit the cryptocurrency.


Bitcoin and government bond yields: what is the connection

The yield on US Treasury bonds cannot exceed the 2% threshold for almost 20 months. At the same time, there was a drop in the yield on 10-year bonds below 1.50% last week.

McGlone noted that the failure to exceed 2% for the benchmark debt occurs "despite widespread perception of higher yields" and may indicate a deflationary environment. And it, in turn, will create favorable conditions for the growth of Bitcoin in 2022.

Nonetheless, the Bloomberg strategist makes a caveat that past performance indicators cannot be considered a guarantee of future growth prospects. Any significant superiority of a new asset class is always accompanied by a larger investment from those who had doubts before.

This is exactly the prospect that could emerge in 2022 when investment managers will seek to avoid the risk of lost profits by strengthening their portfolios by investing in cryptocurrency.


Short-term forecast

A little more than two days are left before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. And it is possible that Bitcoin will somehow react to the tone of the central bank, especially if it is hawkish, as expected.

In the meantime, Bitcoin remains in a sideways position between the support zone of 46,934.61 - 47,848.69 and the resistance of 51,697.58, suspiciously not finishing off its resistance.

Let's not lose hope ahead of time, realizing that the power reserve to resistance remains. However, it is worth keeping in mind an alternative and still actual scenario of a fall to the area of $40,000 - $42,000 per coin, if BTCUSD consolidates below the support zone of 46,934.61 - 47,848.69.









Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis of BTC/USD on December 13, 2021



The first half of a downward simple zigzag is forming on the hourly timeframe of the BTCUSD pair, which will consist of three main subwaves [A]-[B]-[C]. At the current time, you can see only the first part of this zigzag—wave [A]. This wave is an impulse pattern that consists of five subwaves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).

After the completion of the downward impulse [A], two parts of the upward correction [B] were formed—an active wave (W) in the form of a double zigzag and a bundle wave (X) in the form of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z.

The entire corrective wave [B] can be built to the level of 55,050.00. This level is determined using the Fibonacci line tool. At the indicated price point, the value of wave [B] will be 50% of the impulsive wave [A]. The probability of achieving the specified ratio is high.

Thus, in the near future, the market is expected to move upward in the current zigzag wave (Y), which means it is worth considering opening deals for purchases.

Buy: from the current level, take profit 55,050.00.







Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin & Ethereum: Calm Before the Storm



The cryptocurrency market has been performing badly since the beginning of December. In the beginning, there was a sharp drop of more than 25% in Bitcoin, and after a partial recovery. But the fear of a trend reversal is still present in the market.

Many traders are afraid that the overheated U.S. stock market, which is still updating historical highs, will collapse under pressure from the Federal Reserve System (FRS). This will lead to a reaction on risky assets, for example, cryptocurrency. For this reason, we are already seeing concerns in the crypto market with a characteristic correction.

The results of the Fed meeting will be published on Wednesday, December 15, where the regulator will surely accelerate the pace of tapering the quantitative easing program. As a result, QE will end even earlier. The most cardinal assumption, thus far, is the prediction that the Fed will raise the interest rate at the end of the December meeting. This will lead to a strong blow to the stock market and, of course, to the cryptocurrency.

So far, we are dealing only with assumptions, and the market is still at its height, and only fears of change frighten traders.

Meanwhile, the well-known company MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has again increased its cryptocurrency reserves by 1,434 BTC, which is about $82.4 million. The average purchase price was $57,477. This once again indicates that major players are not afraid of a trend reversal in the long term. All corrections, pullbacks, and other speculations are bought off by Whales, who easily take the cryptocurrency from weak hands.

In turn, VISA continues to work on the adaptation of new services. So, they create a special unit to advise their clients on cryptocurrencies and blockchain. VISA also released a report entitled "The Crypto Phenomenon: Consumer, Attitudes and Usage," where the payment giant claims that almost a third of respondents interact directly with cryptocurrencies, and almost 40% of cryptocurrency owners plan to change their bank to one that will offer services related to digital assets.

In simple words, everything is going to ensure that in the near future we will be able to pay for any everyday product with crypto.

Based on this, the message of large players becomes clear, who are not particularly afraid of short-term price changes.

What is happening on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

Bitcoin is moving along the psychological level of $50,000 for the second week, having an amplitude of about 10%. All this resembles the stage of waiting for something strong and influential. In our case, this is the Fed meeting. Thus, after December 15, this range is likely to lose its strength, and the market will determine the direction for itself. It should be noted that the downward trend scenario considers only the corrective course relative to the upward trend. That is, even in the event of a sharp collapse of 20-35%, recovery will follow.

As for the upward scenario, traders are still considering updating historical highs in the direction of the $100,000 level.

Ethereum chose the $4,000 level as the balance of trading forces, along which it has been moving for quite a long time. On the chart of the daily period, only a correction is visible, which was replaced by stagnation. That is, the upward trend remains as it was on the market. Even if the price drops to the levels of $3,500- $3,000, the trend will continue to exist.

According to Bloomberg, 2022 will mark the massive adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States, with proper regulation and a subsequent bullish trend.



The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at the level of 28 points, which is justified due to the fear of global changes. At this time, the index is at the level of the spring decline, where a reversal occurred.









Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021