Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for November 15, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLLOOK:

Bitcoin is looking bearish until prices stay below $69000 high registered on November 10. The crypto has print $62300 lows thereafter, before pulling back towards $66300 mark. Bears might be preparing for yet another leg lower through $58000 at least and up to $52000 level respectively. A break below $56000 will confirm bears are back in control and accelerate lower through $52000 levels.

Bitcoin might be working upon its recent upswing between $40000 and $69000. A drop through the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement toward $49000-50000 zone remains possible before the rally could resume. Also note the channel line support passing through $49000-50000 zone, which will provide the necessary bounce.

On the flip side, a break below the channel support and subsequently $40000 initial support will confirm a potential strand reversal and that bears could be back in control going forward. Watch out for a bearish reversal signal around current levels either today or tomorrow.


TRADING PLAN:

Potential drop towards $58000 and $52000 against $70000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin successfully back tests break out area.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,500. Price has pulled back towards the $63,300 break out area as a back test after the break out. So far price has respected both the horizontal support and the upward sloping trend line.



Red rectangle- horizontal support

Blue line- upward sloping trend line support

Bitcoin continues making higher highs and higher lows. It is important for the bullish short-term trend, bulls to hold price above the blue trend line. Support by this trend line is at $62,000. Price so far only back tested the red horizontal support area, which was once resistance. Bouncing off this level it is an important bullish sign. Failure to stay above $62,000 would be bearish for the near term.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Ethereum challenges lower channel boundaries.


Ethereum continues to trade inside the bullish channel it is in, since the end of September. The last four days price is mostly moving sideways. This has brought price right at the edge and lower boundary of the channel. Price is right above support area and traders need to be cautious.



Blue lines- bullish channel

Ethereum has support at $4,540. Failure to stay above this level will open the way for a pull back towards $4,000. Trend remains bullish as long as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. However traders need to be ready for a pull back, as such a move is justified after such a run. If support is held, price could start next leg higher towards $4,950-$5,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The hit parade of crazy forecasts for bitcoin continues



In a 24-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency maintains an upward trend. If on the 4-hour TF we paid attention to the fact that the upward movement is slowing down, and the price may leave the ascending channel in the near future, then on the 24-hour TF, there are no signs of slowing down or complete yet. On the contrary, the price is very far from the ascending trend line, so almost any correction in size will not be able to break the "bullish" trend. In addition, the price continues to be located above the critical line, and over the past few weeks, it has tried to gain a foothold below it 10 times, but never successfully. Thus, at this time, we do not see a single sell signal.

Meanwhile, various crypto experts continue to share with the market forecasts of the value of bitcoin. For example, the author of a fairly well-known Stock-to-Flow model believes that at this time bitcoin is only in the middle of an upward trend, the highs of which are much higher. According to the expert, the "bullish" impulse will last for another 3-6 months, and by the end of November, bitcoin will rise in price to $ 98,000 per coin. In December, the cost of one coin will be $ 135,000. Well, for 2022, PlanB predicts $ 500,000. It should also be noted that its model is based on calculations of the relationship between the supply of an asset and annual growth. It is difficult to say how real this forecast is. Recall that you can always say that the forecast was not fulfilled or insurmountable factors intervened that spoiled everything. However, it is worth noting that PlanB's forecasts for the price of bitcoin for August, September, and October have come true. However, other experts do not consider the Stock-to-Flow model to be unambiguously correct. There are concerns that the current forecasting using this model is so correct simply by coincidence. Many experts note that predicting the value of bitcoin in a growing market is not the most difficult task in principle. You just need to voice real, not fantastic, goals. At the same time, many note that the cryptocurrency market continues to inflate. And if it inflates, it will burst sooner or later. No one knows when this will happen, but there is no doubt that bitcoin will have to survive at least one more global fall in its history.



The bullish trend continues on the 24-hour timeframe, and the ascending trend line remains, which eloquently signals the mood of market participants and can promptly notify about the beginning of a correction or a new downward trend. As long as the price is above Kijun-sen, we advise you to stay in bitcoin purchases with the goals of $68,910 and $71,147. Fixing below this line will be a signal for a downward correction with the goals of the Senkou Span B line and the trend line.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is being held in an upward channel



The bullish trend is alive, but a correction is just around the corner.

In the last few weeks, the growth of bitcoin quotes has continued. Thus, at this time, the upward trend continues but is weakening. Its weakening is visible in the illustration below, which represents a 4-hour TF. As in the case of the end of the last "bullish" trend in February-April of this year, the price is no longer too willing to overcome its highs, the angle of upward movement is getting smaller. Thus, from our point of view, a fairly strong correction may follow in the near future. On the 4-hour TF, it can be determined by fixing the price below the ascending channel.

The grounds for bitcoin's growth are starting to weaken.

The fundamental background for bitcoin remains controversial. On the one hand, there are still no concrete and visible reasons why bitcoin has been growing in recent months. Of course, BTC grew for a reason, but because it was bought. And they bought it because it is a highly profitable instrument that many investors use as an inflation hedge. This is far from the only reason for the growth. The second reason is the QE program from the US Federal Reserve, which has just begun to shrink in volume. When warehouses of money enter the economy, they should settle in the markets. Therefore, partially all those trillions of dollars that the Fed printed and created on its accounts have settled in the cryptocurrency market. Naturally, this led to the growth of many cryptocurrencies. The third reason is small traders. Recall that small players do not pursue the goal of risk diversification, inflation hedging, and so on. They pursue the goal of obtaining the maximum possible and short-term profit. And when they see that bitcoin is growing in price, as if by leaps and bounds, naturally, they also integrate into the "bullish" trend, which provokes an even greater increase in the value of the digital asset. These are the three reasons we consider to be the most logical explanation of what is happening in the market right now.

Accordingly, if there is no global fundamental event in the near future that will force investors and traders to buy bitcoin with renewed vigor, then we are more inclined to make corrections. Plus, do not forget that for a long time, there have been rumors about the excessive bloat of the markets. They have been pumped with liquidity, so they can "burst". And this applies not only to bitcoin but also to other cryptocurrencies, as well as the US stock market. This is a very likely scenario for the next six months. And market participants can also understand that sooner or later the fairy tale created by the Fed will end. Rates will rise, the QE program will end. Therefore, they can begin to get rid of many assets in advance, while the markets have not yet collapsed. In general, speaking of long-term prospects, we still believe more in a return to the level of $ 30,000 per coin than in an increase to $ 100,000. It should also be remembered that at this time, $ 64,000 is worth nothing, a piece of code that does not bring any benefit, but it pollutes the atmosphere very well. And this problem is now also very acute for the whole world – global warming.



The trend on the 4-hour timeframe continues to be upward. Therefore, at the moment, bitcoin purchases with the goals of $ 68,910 and $ 71,147 remain more preferable. But closing the price below the ascending channel will allow us to expect a round of corrective movement, within which the rate may fall to the level of $ 57,652. By the way, this consolidation may happen in the near future.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Litecoin bullish continuation pattern


Litecoin dropped in the short term but the correction could be over soon. The price action developed a bullish pattern. If this formation is confirmed, LTC/USD will give birth to a new leg higher.

The crypto was traded at 253.22 at the time of writing above 243.86 today's low. In the last 7 days, LTC/USD is up by more than 26%. In the short term, the crypto slipped lower also because the price of Bitcoin has retreated after reaching a fresh all-time high of 69,000.


LTC/USD FALLING WEDGE


Litecoin retreated after failing to stabilize above 300.00 psychological level. It has developed the Falling Wedge pattern. Still, the pattern is far from being confirmed. The rate dropped below the 50% retracement level, but it has rebounded and now is traded far above it.

The area of 237.88 - 232.64 stands as a support area. It remains to see if the sellers will be strong enough to be able to push the rate down towards this demand zone.


LITECOIN PREDICTION

After the correction ends, we may have good long opportunities. Staying above the 237.88 - 232.64 area and making a valid upside breakout from the Falling Wedge could signal a new leg higher, an upwards movement.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin may still experience "parabolic rise"; what does Bitcoin Taproot upgrade have to do with it?

Bitcoin continues to decline on Friday. But an unclosed bearish daily candle is a shaky benchmark for analysis. There have been no fundamental technical changes since Thursday: support at 62,637.96 may turn out to be the lower border of a new sideways consolidation range.

The second presumed technical scenario is the formation of an upward channel. The second minimum, at which the support line can be drawn, has not yet been formed. But if we assume that this border will be parallel to the resistance of the two rising highs (although this is not true, let's assume), then the correction could go deeper into the area of $60,000-$61,000 per coin.


Profit-taking or fundamental pressure?

Such a beautiful bearish engulfing on the daily chart is more of a sign of profit-taking by buyers. And the correction was strengthened by the removal of part of the long positions opened with the leverage. The situation is familiar and has been discussed by us here more than once.

Although, in support of Thursday's assumption, asset management expert from Tellurian ExoAlpha confirmed the likelihood of the hype about the China Evergrande financial crisis on some digital assets, including Friday.

He believes that the news from Evergrande is causing a violent reaction in the digital currency ecosystem as a whole, but this is only a temporary phenomenon and preparation for a rebound to new highs.

Well, here we seem to agree.


Inflation shock and BTC update: there is every chance for growth

I will not repeat once again that inflationary pressure is one of the factors urging institutional investors to flee to bitcoin. This topic has been covered many times. One has only to recall the latest data of this week - the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in October exceeded 6.2%. This, among many other factors, could push even private investors to invest in bitcoin as a way of hedging investment portfolios from this inflationary surge.

The discussion of the parabolic rise of the main cryptocurrency against the background of the upcoming update will become more interesting.

Analysts compare the current bull cycle since the previous halving with the previous ones and note that the market has not yet experienced the final parabolic rally. Although the situation is not identical to the 2013 or 2017 rallies, the foundation is still being laid for this so-called "parabolic takeoff."

In terms of local news, not only a final decision is expected on Sunday on whether or not filing a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US will be allowed. The fate of blocking the Bitcoin Taproot soft fork will also be decided.

"The last time bitcoin underwent such a major update was the Segwit update in August 2017. Bitcoin was priced at $4,000 at the time and then surged to nearly $20,000 over the next four months," noted Decentrader analysts, who suggest the update could trigger a new surge in volatility.

"Will we see a similar rally this time? Considering how optimistic many macro indicators look right now, as well as the influx of new funds into the cryptocurrency, this is certainly possible."

Against this background, BTCUSD volatility may increase over the weekend. But for now, I leave the actual technical guidelines on the chart. They may have to be updated from the next week.









Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin will cost $100,000 in December: Anthony Scaramucci



Anthony Scaramucci is still bullish towards Bitcoin. Scaramucci is confident that digital gold will cost $100,000 in December, so he advised all new investors to invest in their chance as soon as possible.

Scaramucci has been very flattering about Bitcoin lately. The founder of Skybridge Capital used to be very skeptical about cryptocurrency, but over time he changed his position. He is now confident that Bitcoin is quickly breaking into the monetary policy of countries, and due to its protection from today's inflation and decentralization, it will oust the dollar from the international arena.

Scaramucci founded the Skybridge Bitcoin Fund this year, which is designed specifically for investing in Bitcoin. The CEO of Skybridge is confident that now is the best time to jump onto the departing carriage.

The cryptocurrency is scalable, the amount of funds that come to the market is increasing, and there are more and more investors. In addition, Scaramucci also says to pay attention to Ethereum.

In addition to the Bitcoin fund, his company also created the Ethereum fund. The company even applied for an Ethereum-based ETF with the SEC. This procedure was undertaken after the application for the Bitcoin ETF.

Scaramucci is confident that his foundation will be able to attract more than $100 million from institutions. He is also very closely watching other altcoins in order to create similar funds to attract investor funds, but the priority is of course on the side of bitcoin and ethereum.

Scaramucci is confident that Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to scale and grow over the next 20 years. He also advises ordinary investors not to come into cryptocurrency trading if they are afraid of a fall in the market and long bearish rallies.

An investment should be viewed as an investment of your own funds for the long term, otherwise, you should give up the idea of investing your own money.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on November 12 - 15, 2021: sell below $4,722 (7/8)


At the beginning of the American session, Ethereum (ETH) is trading below 7/8 murray and below the SMA of 21 located at 4,722. It is likely that the downward correction will continue and may reach the bottom of the uptrend channel.

A decisive and sharp break below the uptrend channel formed since September 29 could accelerate the decline of Ether to the 200 EMA located at 4,215.



In the meantime, we expect a consolidation below 4,700, and it will be an opportunity to continue selling with targets up to the support 6/8 murray around 4,375.

A return in the price of Ether above 4,800 would open the bullish scenario and could help reach the psychological level of 5,000 located at 8/8 of murray.

Cryptocurrency market sentiment is showing some caution in the face of rising US inflation. Consequently, investors are taking refuge in gold and some altcoins.

If BTC does not gain any more momentum and remains below 65,000, it could drag ETH lower, and it could fall to the support level of 4,215, zone of the 200 EMA.

The key is to keep an eye on the 21 moving average while Ether trades below this zone. The technical correction is expected to continue and in the short term it may fall to the psychological level of 4,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 12 - 15, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,937
Resistance (2) 4,811
Resistance (1) 4,677

Support (1) 4,476
Support (2) 4,375
Support (3) 4,220


A trading tip for ETH for November 12 - 15, 2021
Sell below 4,722 (7/8) with take profit at 4,375 (6/8) and 4,215 (EMA 200) stop loss above 4,820.






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Muslims in Indonesia are banned from using cryptocurrency



According to the council of religious leaders of Indonesia, the use of crypto assets as a currency is prohibited for Muslims.

The National Council of Ulema, or MUI, recognized the cryptocurrency as banned because it contains elements of uncertainty, stakes, and harm. However, Asrorun Ni'am Sholeh, the head of religious decrees, said on Thursday after the council held an expert hearing that if the cryptocurrency as a commodity or a digital asset complies with the principles of Sharia and shows a clear benefit, then it is allowed to trade.

The MUI has the authority to enforce Sharia law in a country with the largest Muslim population in the world, and the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank advise them on Islamic finance.

The government itself supports crypto assets, allowing them to be traded alongside commodity futures as an investment option and insisting on the creation of a crypto-oriented exchange by the end of the year. Indonesia does not allow the use of crypto assets as a currency, because only the rupee is the only legal tender in the country.

Although MUI's decision does not mean that trading of all cryptocurrencies in Indonesia will be stopped, the decree may deter Muslims from investing in assets and force local institutions to reconsider the issue of issuing crypto assets. The Bank of Indonesia is considering a Central Bank digital currency, but a decision has not yet been announced.

Crypto transactions totaled 370 trillion rupees ($26 billion) in the first five months of this year in Indonesia, which is still part of the global market at about $3 trillion.

The position of religious leaders in Indonesia may differ from that of their counterparts in other Muslim-majority countries. The United Arab Emirates has allowed cryptocurrency trading in the Dubai Free Zone, while Bahrain has been supporting crypto assets since 2019.






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021