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    Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

    1. #1044 Collapse post
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      Experts see positive outlook for Bitcoin in the current year

      The year 2020 was truly magical for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin soared in price by more than 300%, while Altcoins showed growth of 1000 and even 10,000 percent. Money flowed like a river, and the hype of cryptocurrency assets went far beyond small unskilled investors.

      Institutional investors flooded the market, followed by funds, banks, and large companies eager to grab their piece of the pie. The hype around digital assets has become so great that the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, has become interested in them. To understand who BlackRock is, you just need to see the figure that reflects the volume of assets under their management, $7 trillion.

      This is not just a whale in the world of finance, it is an ocean of money where whales live.

      We are talking about BlackRock's interest in working with a new type of asset, which in the medium term will have a positive effect on the industry as a whole.

      In the future, digital assets can gain a foothold in the status of a safe-haven asset and become a competitor to gold. This opinion is shared by large hedge funds and banks, for example, recently the chief economist of Bank of Singapore Mansoor Mohi-uddin suggested that cryptocurrencies could very soon begin to compete with fiat money as a medium of exchange, a unit of account.

      The idea of Mansoor Mohi-uddin is slightly crazy for the current layman, but it is enough to remember how the cryptocurrency was treated in 2017 and how it is treated now, the differences are cardinal.

      The founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, Cathie Wood, believes that many large companies will continue to invest in Bitcoin to hedge the risks of inflation. According to her, "More and more companies will start using this type of hedging, reflecting it in the balance sheet. Especially technology companies that understand this and are comfortable with cryptocurrencies."

      Do not forget that cryptocurrencies are now considered not only as an investment tool, but with the submission of the largest debit electronic payment system PayPal, cryptocurrencies have gone to the people, where anyone can pay with them in 26 million stores, and this is just the beginning.

      In my reviews, I have repeatedly disclosed information about how investment funds purchased cryptocurrency when ordinary people predicted the collapse of the crypto market. There were a few more revelations, well-known universities around the world: Harvard, Yale, Brown, and Michigan through their funds, have been buying digital assets over the past year. The information was leaked through the Coinbase report for 2020, which served as intermediaries in the purchase of crypto assets.

      Don't you think it is an excellent tactic of big players who, manipulating the public opinion about the negative factors associated with cryptocurrency, bought it at a low price?

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      Prospects and expectations
      First, it is worth running through the information, during the past week, institutional investors invested $1.3 billion in cryptocurrency assets. In turn, the investment firm Union Square Ventures, which manages assets of several billion dollars, is launching a new fund for $250 million. 30% of the funds placed in the fund are planned to be invested in the cryptocurrency industry.

      "We will directly buy and store tokens, as well as invest in new projects working in the blockchain field. Blockchain embodies the evolution of trust in computing and financial systems and also provides broader access to them. We believe that decentralized systems are still in their early stages of development. We see the adoption of such systems and we see many interesting activities," said managing partner Andy Weissman.

      All this is happening at the stage of the correctional course for Bitcoin, as it already happened in the fall of last year when major players used the correction as an advantage in the market.

      As soon as the correction is over, and it is over, there will again be reports that mega-players have increased their portfolio and become even richer and more successful.

      If we proceed from the Bloomberg analysis, then the interest of financial institutions in crypto assets is still at the very beginning of the path. The value of Bitcoin is not yet large enough to panic about a reversal. Taking into account the interest in new types of assets, the rate of the first cryptocurrency may reach $100,000 in the medium term.

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      General background of the crypto market
      When analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, it is worth starting with the fact that the $1 trillion milestone has already been passed during the period of January. This is a success that has been expected for years, the absolute maximum opens up a new path for us, it should be noted that this result is the merit of Bitcoin. Now imagine what will happen if we see something similar to Altcoin, capitalization just goes off scale. At this time, due to the correction, the Total market dropped slightly to $923 billion, but is still at a height, and it is enough to remember that at the beginning of December, the Market Cap was only $550 billion.

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      The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at a consistently positive level of 78 points. The loss of profit syndrome temporarily subsided due to the correction, but as soon as we return to the maximum for Bitcoin, the syndrome will return again.

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      Indicator analysis
      Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on a four-hour daily period signal a sale because the quote is in the correction stage. The weekly period, as before, is focused on an upward trend, signaling a buy

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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      In late January 2021, the online Bitcoin mining difficulty, a measure of how complicated block reward mining is, is higher than ever. Currently, the difficulty of mining BTC is as high as 20.8 trillion, but despite the handicap, miners still maintain a hot hashrate of the network.

      The price of BTC was higher than ever before and despite a temporary drop below $ 30,000 on January 21, crypto assets managed to stay above that range. This has made many ASIC mining machines profitable at the current price, including legacy mining rigs.

      Nevertheless, the current difficulty of Bitcoin mining is the highest ever experienced in the last 12 years of operation. Basically, the difficulty is how difficult it is for a miner to mine the BTC block or just find the hash below the specified target.

      The higher the difficulty, the more complicated it is for all mining participants trying to find BTC blocks on a given day. At the time of writing the news, the data shows that the Bitcoin chain difficulty is around 20 823 531 150 111 or 20.82 T.

      There are around 22 mining pools in the BTC chain that sacrifice SHA256 hashrate. Currently, these pools maintain Bitcoin hashrates above 150 exahashes per second (eH / s).

      Over the past two months, the BTC hashrate has remained constant between 140 and 165 EH / s. At the current speeds, the difficulty seems to jump just a hair higher, at + 0.11% to 20.85 T in 12 days .

      Currently, the top five BTC mining pools today include F2pool (23 EH / s), Poolin (19.2 EH / s), Binance Pool (17.1 EH / s), Btc.com (16.5 EH / s) and Antpool (12.4 EH / s). These five largest mining pools today handle 61.45% of the total SHA256 hashrate, while the 17 mining pools capture 38.55% of the remaining hashrate.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The volatility of Bitcoin has decreased after the pair had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern around the level of $34,898. The bears has pushed the price towards the level of $31,000 again and it looks like they are getting ready for a breakout lower. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $29,000, so if it is clearly violated, then the market might extend the slide down towards the level of $27,000.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $45,492
      WR2 - $41,554
      WR1 - $36,330

      Weekly Pivot - $32,457
      WS1 - $27,332
      WS2 - $23,540
      WS3 - $18,286


      Trading Recommendations:
      Despite the recent corrective cycle the bulls are still in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $20,000 is clearly broken.

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      Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation issued a letter advising officials that they must get rid of any cryptocurrencies they hold by April 1.

      "Officials are required to dispose of digital financial assets issued in information systems organized under foreign law, as well as digital currencies, regardless of the country of issue," the statement read.

      The letter indicates the persons affected by the new law, listing in particular persons holding government or state positions, employees of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, employees of certain organizations and their owners.

      Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on December 10, 2020, obliging government officials and candidates for appropriate positions to declare any cryptocurrencies or tokens owned by them, their spouses and minor children. The first disclosure is due between January 1 and June 30 of this year. According to the publication, reporting on digital financial assets and digital currency acquisitions in 2020 is not required.

      The Law on Digital Financial Assets entered into force in Russia on January 1. Recognizes cryptocurrencies as property but prohibits their use for payment. The draft law on the taxation of cryptocurrency operations was submitted to the State Duma at the beginning of December last year.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The ETH/USD bounce had been terminated at the level of $1,375 after the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made. The bulls tried to break through the short-term trend line resistance, but failed and reversed lower towards the level of $1,274. If this level is violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,233. The momentum is pointing down around the neutral level, so the sentiment might be flipping to negative in the short-term. The higher time frame trend remains up.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $1,927
      WR2 - $1,665
      WR1 - $1,545

      Weekly Pivot - $1,286
      WS1 - $1,156
      WS2 - $897
      WS3 - $767


      Trading Recommendations:
      The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $1,500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.

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      BTC analysis for January 26,.2021 - Broken Mini Pitchfork channel and potential for downside movement $28.855

      Further Development

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      Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that the sellers are in control today and there is the breakout of the Mini Pitchfork channel, which is good indication for the further downside.

      Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies wit the downside target at the price of $28,855.


      Key Levels:

      Resistance: $34,800

      Support level: $28,855


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      Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The Ethereum-based game Age of Rust will be released on Steam in March. Players will have the chance to get cryptocurrencies worth nearly $ 1,000,000.

      After years of development work, Age of Rust is to debut on Steam in March this year. Due to the rising prices of cryptocurrencies, the prizes hidden in the game are now worth almost $ 1 million.

      SpacePirate Games has revealed that the game contains 24 bitcoins and 370,000 Enjin coins, worth a total of $ 929,000 today.

      Age of Rust is a science fiction action game in which we will be able to explore a huge digital universe with a total area of 250,000 km2. The main theme of the game is the fight between humanity and the AI robot class.

      The game uses the Enjin protocol and runs on Ethereum. It has been in development since 2014 and aims to be something of a "engaging, educational experience based on blockchain technology." SpacePirate Games caught the attention of the community when they released the popular puzzle game - Crypto Puzzle. That same year, they began work on Age of Rust.

      The developers donated a pool of 24 bitcoins for prizes hidden in the game. Today they are worth $ 794,400. "We had no idea it would become such a huge prize so soon," said Chris LoVerme of SpacePirate Games.

      The prize pool also includes 370,000 Enjin coins that experienced a parabolic rally this year. Since the beginning of January, their value has increased by over 200%.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The ETH/USD pair rally had been capped at the level of $1,438. After 16h consolidation in a narrow zone, the bears have managed to break to the downside and made a test of the key short-term technical support at the level of $1,294. If this level is violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,233. The momentum is pointing down around the neutral level, so the sentiment might be flipping to negative in the short-term. The higher time frame trend remains up.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $1,927
      WR2 - $1,665
      WR1 - $1,545

      Weekly Pivot - $1,286
      WS1 - $1,156
      WS2 - $897
      WS3 - $767


      Trading Recommendations:
      The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $1,500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.

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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The International Air Transport Association will soon introduce blockchain passports that digitally store information about a person's health, in particular their COVID-19 tests and vaccination status.

      In line with a move that IATA says it could reopen international travel and loosen current global restrictions, the "health" passport will be saved on the user's smartphone as an app, and the first real-world tests will take place in February.

      Known as the IATA Travel Pass and described as a way to give travelers full control of their own data, the app would reportedly also act as a two-way communication tool that sends information to the relevant government authorities, immunization centers, and airlines.

      So far, the four largest airlines have signed up for the program. Singapore Airlines and British Airways plan to start the first test phase in February, while Etihad and Emirates are anticipating it in April.

      Alan Murray Hayden, head of IATA's airport, passenger and security products division, praised the program's use of "powerful" blockchain technology, adding that it was one of the few technology implementations to date that clearly had a positive impact:

      "This is the beauty of the technology we use; it gives the passenger full control of their data. There is no central database and no one can hack it. The passenger owns his data and shares it with the airline. A program so powerful is probably one of the first examples. blockchain technology implemented for the benefit of people. "

      The Travel Pass will contain four main interactive elements:
      1. Digital passport module,
      2. Lab application that enables secure data transfer via testing laboratories and the application itself;
      3. Global registry of vaccination centers;
      4. A global register of current health requirements necessary for international travelers.

      Hayden said that if a potential passenger's health and vaccinations meet international requirements, the passenger will be able to continue traveling. Etihad airline passengers departing from Abu Dhabi will be the first to be able to use digital passports in the first quarter of 2021.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The BTC/USD pair has made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern around the level of $34,898, so the bounce from the level of $31,000 had been capped. The bears has pushed the price towards the level of $31,000 again and it looks like they are getting ready for a breakout lower. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $29,000, so if it is clearly violated, then the market might extend the slide down towards the level of $27,000.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $45,492
      WR2 - $41,554
      WR1 - $36,330

      Weekly Pivot - $32,457
      WS1 - $27,332
      WS2 - $23,540
      WS3 - $18,286


      Trading Recommendations:
      Despite the recent corrective cycle the bulls are still in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $20,000 is clearly broken.

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      BTC analysis for January 25,.2021 - Breakout of the Mini Pitchfork downside channel and potentia lfor test of the $36.500

      Further Development

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      Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that the sellers got exhausted today and that upside movement is on the way.


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      Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 25 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The Indian cryptocurrency exchange Buyucoin has reportedly been hacked and the confidential data of around 325,000 users leaked onto the dark web. According to reports, stolen data includes personal data, encrypted passwords, user's wallet data, order details, bank details, PAN numbers, passport numbers and deposit histories.

      Buyucoin, a cryptocurrency exchange based in Delhi, has reportedly been hacked. According to the website, the exchange has over 350,000 registered users and has enabled transactions worth over $ 500 million in cryptocurrencies. Several local news outlets reported that some 325,000 confidential data customers have been dumped to the dark web.

      Independent cybersecurity researcher Rajshekhar Rajaharia explained in the publication that the 6 GB file in the MongoDB database contains three backup files with Buyucoin data. Among the leaked data, the researcher also found his own information, which he used to set up an account on the platform last year.

      Buyucoin is the latest victim of the infamous Shinyhunters hacker group, which, according to Economic Times, leaks databases for free on well-known English-language forums. The group also disclosed data on the Big Basket online store, the Unacademy educational technology platform and the Juspay payment aggregator.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The ETH/USD pair has made new all time high at the level of $1,478.80, but the rally had made a Pin Bar candlestick around this level, so now the market is pulling-back towards the $1,400 again. The momentum is strong and positive, so another sub-wave up might occur with a target at the level of $1,500. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $1,348, $1,340 and $1,323 (former supply zone).

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $1,927
      WR2 - $1,665
      WR1 - $1,545

      Weekly Pivot - $1,286
      WS1 - $1,156
      WS2 - $897
      WS3 - $767


      Trading Recommendations:
      The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $1,500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.

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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      Anthony Scaramucci, head of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, believes that Bitcoin's value proposition has strengthened significantly now as governments have addressed the many risks associated with digital assets.

      In an article published on CNN, Scaramucci and fellow SkyBridge executive Brett Messing say Bitcoin has become a viable option for long-term investors seeking refuge from inflation. The authors also argue that owning Bitcoin is much less risky today than it was a few years ago when the rules and infrastructure were still underdeveloped.

      The rise of Bitcoin "has caused the government and institutions to step in and deal with many of the risks associated with digital currency," the authors wrote, referring to the decision by the Office of Currency Controller to authorize banks to provide cryptocurrency services.

      "[...] Increased regulation, improved infrastructure and access to financial institutions - such as Fidelity - that hold investors' money - have made Bitcoin investments as safe as owning bonds and commodities like gold," they continue.

      SkyBridge Capital caught attention last month when it applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin hedge fund. SkyBridge Bitcoin Fund LP was launched a few weeks later - Fidelity acted as the depository, and Ernst & Young was responsible for the audit.

      SkyBridge reportedly invested in Bitcoin in November and December, which allowed it to amass a large position in digital assets ahead of its parabolic leap. At the time of the fund's launch on Jan. 4, SkyBridge claimed its exposure to BTC was worth approximately $ 310 million.

      Institutional capital was the main catalyst for Bitcoin's 300% growth in 2020, culminating in a new all-time record near $ 42,000 on January 8. So-called smart money investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as a form of digital gold - one that potentially has much higher growth than precious metals.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone located between the levels of $31,000 - $33,500 for the last 24h. Moreover, the market keeps trading under the trend line resistance around the level of $34,000, so any violation of this level might lead to another wave up towards $35,000. Nevertheless, the momentum is neutral and the level of $34,000 is the key short-term technical resistance. To ensure the rally towards $40,000, the bulls must break through the golden trend line resistance as well.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $45,492
      WR2 - $41,554
      WR1 - $36,330

      Weekly Pivot - $32,457
      WS1 - $27,332
      WS2 - $23,540
      WS3 - $18,286


      Trading Recommendations:
      Despite the recent corrective cycle the bulls are still in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $20,000 is clearly broken.

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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 January 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      BlackRock manages assets worth 7.81 trillion dollars. The fund wants to allocate funds to bitcoin futures. The world's largest mutual fund decided to take this step through two of its sub-funds. BlackRock's intentions are confirmed by documents submitted yesterday. They were received yesterday by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

      Each Fund may use instruments known as derivatives, which are financial instruments. Their value comes from one or more securities, commodities (such as gold or oil), currencies (including bitcoin), interest rates, loans or indices (a measure of value or interest rates, such as the S&P 500 index or the principal borrowing rate ) ".

      Last month, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggested Bitcoin could "possibly" transform into a global market. It is worth noting that Fink has in the past declared a rather skeptical attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

      "Bitcoin has captured the attention and imagination of many people. It is still an untested, fairly small market compared to other markets. You see these big giant moves every day. Can it transform into a global market? It's possible. "

      "Having a digital currency has a real impact on the US dollar," added Fink. He also commented that assets such as bitcoin, Chinese digital Yuan, and Facebook's freshly renamed project make the US dollar "less important."


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The BTC/USD pair has dropped like a stone during the last 24 hours and broke below all of the important technical support levels including long-term trend line support around the level of $32,000. The bears have managed to hit the level of $29,000 before the market had a chance to bounce towards the level of $32,000 again. Nevertheless, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the outlook remains bearish. The next important technical support for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $25,000.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $50,241
      WR2 - $45,262
      WR1 - $41,218

      Weekly Pivot - $35,725
      WS1 - $31,875
      WS2 - $26,553
      WS3 - $22,402


      Trading Recommendations:
      Bitcoin made another ATH and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $20,000 is clearly broken.

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      Performed by Sebastian Seliga
      Analytical expert
      InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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