Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Ethereum on 04.02.21 – BUY



1.Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME)

Since bitcoin is the flagship of the cryptocurrency market, we will first analyze its movement. The analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the Footprint Profile Theory, in which the movement of the maximum volume level for the day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum level indicates an upward trend. The moving of the maximum volume level down indicates a downward trend. The chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

02/02/21 - Maximum Horizontal Volume Level (ROS-Point Of Control) - 34580
02/03/21 - Maximum Horizontal Volume Level (ROS-Point Of Control) - 36990

The ROS moved up, the price reaction after the infusion of this volume went up. There is a possibility that the upward movement will continue.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a trader's friend. Many traders know this saying, but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the Classical Dow Theory, there are three main trends:

-the long-term
-the medium-term
-the short-term

All these trends are needed to be analyzed before opening any transaction. We will do this in this analysis.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be made on a daily timeframe and held for several days. The daily trend is analyzed using the EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candle will close above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend and we should buy. If the daily candle will close below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is down and we should sell.



The chart clearly shows an upward trend. The price is higher than the EMA (48), so in this situation, you should only consider purchases.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48 will also be used for the analysis. If the H4 candle will close above the EMA (48), it means that the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candle will close below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and should be sold.



Strong uptrend, the price is above the EMA (48). This means that the medium-term trend is upward and coincides with the long-term trend, so you should buy.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

The short-term trend, which can show the entry point to the market will be considered a trend on the H1 timeframe. The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48 will help us. If the H1 candle will close above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candle will close below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48), an uptrend. Strong uptrend; long-term; medium-term and short-term trends are the same, you should buy.


5. Japanese Candle Analysis.

The classic Japanese Candlestick Analysis is used for the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candle.



Closing the daily candle up, the candle is white. The high is higher than the high of the previous candle indicating an upward movement. The shape of the candle is trending with a large body and small shadows. It's probably an upward movement, so you should buy.


6. Conclusions.

Volume Analysis: the ROS moved up, the price reaction is up - BUY.

Long-term trend: up - BUY.

Medium-term trend: up - BUY.

Short-term trend: up - BUY.

Japanese Candlestick Analysis - BUY.

General conclusion: 02/04/.21 - it is preferable to buy.


7. Statistics.

It is necessary to keep statistics on completed transactions to analyze the effectiveness of this approach. We continue to be engaged in this transaction:

02/02/21 Ethereum BUY: 1441; SL: 1494; Risk per transaction: 1% of the deposit. The stop loss was moved for the minimum of the day 02/03/21. This transaction is already at breakeven and a small profit is recorded.

The stop loss is located behind the daily extreme. We do not set a take profit, as we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extremes of the new days. This recommendation is relevant throughout the day since trading is conducted on a daily chart.

Keep it simple and trade on the trend, you will have good profit!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum to hit $ 1891

Ethereum traded at $ 1697.27 today, setting a new all-time high in the market.

Based on the Fibonacci extensions, the next target will be $ 1891, which is the 161.8% retracement level. This level is still far away, but if ETH reaches it, price will most likely turn around.

In the meantime, Ethereum has pulled back to $ 1,566.37, which is also the 100% retracement level. If price stops here and turns around, ETH will go back to $ 1697.27, or climb higher to 1891.55.

But if the quote drops further below $ 1,566.37, Ethereum may weaken and trade at $ 1436.48.

In another note, investors are gearing up to launch Ethereum futures on the Chicago exchange. Demand for the cryptocurrency may grow until the listing, but after it, ETH may correct downwards again.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum hits all-time highs



Ethereum hit all-time highs on Wednesday, surpassing $ 1,500 amid expectations that Ethereum futures would be launched on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange next week. All in all, ETH gained about 120% since the beginning of the year.



"Placing Ethereum futures on a regulated exchange should improve the structure of the cryptocurrency market. It will allow investors to access the second most important cryptocurrency, diversify Bitcoin, or simply to hedge existing Ethereum risks," analysts at JPMorgan said.

"There is a high chance that following the listing of Ethereum contracts, there will be negative price movements, which will allow some holders of physical ETH to hedge their risks. Then, the successful launch of contracts will most likely be followed by options on futures, similar to what happened with Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2020. On Ethereum, this will happen by 2022," they added.

To date, there is a growing number of networks integrating and/or developing their own mechanisms for the execution of smart contracts. This leads to an ecosystem that has many different types of DApps running on different networks. Increasingly, DApp developers want them to run on different networks at the same time, while having the same underlying token model. In situations where all the networks support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), developers can usually deploy their existing code and then just use it. But even in a favorable scenario, they still need a bridge to transport their own tokens to another network.



Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: step-by-step development of the forecast

Bitcoin rose on Wednesday, adding about 4% in 24 hours according to Coinmarketcap. The BTCUSD quotes broke through the next target indicated in the forecast of February 2 - the local level of 37208.97 at the intersection with the triangle resistance line. Now their further dynamics will depend on whether this breakdown is true and marks the breakdown of the figure up or will be false and the price of the main cryptocurrency will turn down.

The growth scenario is not so simple. It would seem that the exit up from the currently forming trades on the four-hour chart will signal further growth. However, there is one thing that stands in the way of the price. In this case, it is the level of the previous highs formed by the bitcoin jump on the comments of Elon Musk last week. Thus, fixing above it will be a more convincing signal of continued growth. In this case, there is a possibility of even updating the historical highs for BTCUSD.

But if the breakdown of the triangle's resistance turns out to be false, the quotes will return to the local level of 37208.97, which means that bitcoin is open to the south, inside the figure. The nearest target will be a strong mirror horizontal of 34708.27.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 04 February 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Mark Cuban, entrepreneur and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, referred to the recent clash between Wall Street and the Wallstreetbets Reddit community.

Millennials better understand the value of digital resources and grew up in a world where music was more often shared as a digital file than a physical object.

Blockchain technology, unforgettable tokens and smart contracts now allow any asset that can be represented digitally to act as a store of value, with provable rarity and without the many flaws of physical collectibles:

"This generation knows that a smart contract and digital good are a better investment than old school applications that must see, touch or feel."

Cuban further points out that stocks are just another digital store of value, and the new generation has simply found and exploited the ineffectiveness of the existing stock exchange system. They realized that by working together they minimize Wall Street's power and expose the hypocrisy of hedge funds and brokerage houses by issuing bills to millions of clients while crying terribly when the subreddit does the same:

"The fat and happy Wall Street has gotten sluggish and stale and stale, making it an easier target than anyone would have expected."

This year, Cuban has proved to be a greater supporter of cryptocurrencies than he previously admitted. A while ago, he knocked out several NFT limited editions on Rarible.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the narrow zone located between the levels of $32,921 - $34,839 and broken through the long-term trend line resistance around the level of $36,872. The new local high was made at the level of $38,262. If the level of $38,862 is clearly violated, then bull might rally straight back to the recent local high located at $39,967 and even break higher. Please notice, the momentum on the RSI indicator is now on the positive territory, so the bulls are doing their best to resume the up trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $46,671
WR2 - $42,502
WR1 - $37,109

Weekly Pivot - $33,428
WS1 - $27,789
WS2 - $23,603
WS3 - $18,571


Trading Recommendations:
Despite the recent corrective cycle the bulls are still in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $20,000 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Ethereum for February 4, 2021



Ethereum has broken clearly above the Cup with handle neck-line at 1,385 which has activated the huge formation for a continuation higher towards the formation-objective at 2,674. The way to measure the target of a cup with handle is to measure from the bottom of the formation to the top of the formation and add the distance to the break-out point, which in this case gives a objective at 2,674.

The neckline at ,385 will act a strong support in case a back-test is needed before the next part of the uptrend takes place.


Trading recommendation:
Buy Ethereum near 1,385 and place the stop at 1,310




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Bitcoin/USD for February 4, 2021



Bitcoin could be on the edge of breaking out from the bull-flag, that has developed over the last month. A clear break out from the bull-flag will call for the next huge rally higher towards 46,222 and likely even higher towards 52,483 as the next major upside target. Longer-term even higher levels can't be excluded.

The former top at 42,000 could act as a temporary cap, but ultimately Bitcoin should clear this higher for a continuation higher towards 46,222 and higher.


Trading recommendation:
Buy Bitcoin upon a break above 38,620 for a continuation higher towards 46,222 Stop should be set at 32,190





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD on 04 January 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The first part of Swiss blockchain law, covering companies, entered into force on Monday. In September 2020, the country's parliament adopted the country's extended crypto and blockchain regulatory framework.

According to a Swissinfo report, implementing the new regulatory paradigm will help improve the burgeoning Swiss cryptocurrency and blockchain scene. Indeed, industry stakeholders in the country praised the extended financial and corporate reforms contained in the revised legislation passed by parliament in September 2020.

For Hans Kuhn, board member of the digital bank SEBA, blockchain law places Switzerland in the emerging digital economy. According to Kuhn, the regulated issuance of blockchain-based securities indicates that the country is focused on promoting digital innovation.

Also on Monday, Crypto Broker AG announced that it had obtained a license from the Swiss financial market regulator, FINMA. Thanks to this license, the brokerage company, which settled transactions worth more than $ 1 billion last year, can now offer its clients tokenized securities.

Crypto Broker AG is now joining companies such as SEBA and Sygum Bank as a FINMA license holder. As the second part of Swiss blockchain law is due to come into force this summer, companies will seek to gain a significant foothold in the asset exchange market for regulated trading in these cryptocurrencies.

Part two of the Swiss blockchain law will cover significant improvements to the country's financial market infrastructure. This part of the Act on will provide the legal basis for cryptocurrency trading as well as other crypto exchange operations.

Switzerland is now joining Liechtenstein as one of the few countries with a full spectrum cryptography and blockchain legislation that covers all major aspects of the industry. However, unlike the Swiss approach which changed the existing rules to fit the blockchain market, Liechtenstein created a new legal framework for its cryptocurrency and blockchain market.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $1,693 (at the time of writing the article). The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,755 which is a 127% Fibonacci extension of the last wave up. The key technical support is located at the level of $1,414 (2017 high). The intraday support is located at $1,638. The long term up trend is still intact and there is no indication of trend reversal or termination.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $1,679
WR2 - $1,589
WR1 - $1,419

Weekly Pivot - $1,318
WS1 - $1,150
WS2 - $1,040
WS3 - $882


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.





Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

A new milestone in the history of Ethereum: the launch of futures on the CME exchange

Today's update to the historical highs for ETHUSD was due to increased demand for this cryptocurrency ahead of the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The contracts will start trading next week.

In a note from JPMorgan strategists, it is noted that the placement of futures contracts on the exchange, which is subject to regulation, will improve the structure of the cryptocurrency market. Investors will be able to use derivatives on Ethereum to diversify their bitcoin portfolio or hedge cryptocurrency positions with futures.

Also, experts from JPMorgan do not rule out that after the listing of Ethereum futures, the cryptocurrency may face a pullback in prices, which will allow the owners of the ether to resort to hedging strategies.

The successful launch of Ethereum futures is likely to be the first step, after which options for this cryptocurrency may appear next year.

Meanwhile, the Fibonacci extension did not deceive about the technical guidelines for ETHUSD. The pair moved to consolidation below the 100 level, located at 1566.88.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrencies conquer new heights: Ethereum throws bitcoin off the throne and rewrites history

The cryptocurrency market is showing incredible results in the stock markets, and the investment attractiveness of the digital asset continues to gain momentum. With each passing hour, the cryptocurrency shows more and more convincing positions in the markets, but a small surprise was the fact that Ethereum broke out into the leaders.

As of February 3, bitcoin showed impressive growth, increasing in price by $ 2 thousand over the past day. The asset is approaching its historical maximum and will soon reach the mark of $ 38 thousand. However, in the course of trading, Ethereum managed to snatch the lead, jumping by almost 11% over the past day. The digital asset set a personal historical record, surpassing the figure of $ 1,500 and stopping at the figure of $ 1,563. The total capitalization of Ethereum reached $ 177.5 billion.

Given the information that the well-known American investment company Bridgewater Associates is going to invest in digital currencies, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a renaissance. All major trading participants show significant growth, except for bitcoin, which briefly slowed down, but held its position. It is not surprising that it is Ethereum that holds the lead. Judging by the charts, the digital asset has not yet reached its peak, and therefore we can expect to set another record for the value of the cryptocurrency.

XRP is also showing signs of life, which has finally recovered from the unsuccessful "pump" of retailers. The price of the digital asset rose by 4.3%, with a total capitalization of $ 17 billion. The biggest gain for February 3 was demonstrated by Litecoin, which strengthened its positions, rising in price by almost 14%.

Thanks to the active growth of purchasing power and favorable investment conditions, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has reached the level of 1.09 trillion US dollars. Given the news about the imminent infusions into the digital currency market, investors will remain positive and we expect new historical records for the value of the main cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may pass for $ 38 thousand, and Ethereum can swing for $ 1600. It is worth noting that given the current results, February can be an excellent basis for consolidating the positions of the most successful cryptocurrencies.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021