Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum breaks out of bullish channel


Ethereum is under pressure and is showing major reversal signs. Price has broken out of the upward sloping channel it was in since late September. Price has most probably completed the upward move since the $2,639 low and is now starting a corrective pull back.



Blue lines- bullish channel

Black lines - Fibonacci retracements

Ethereum is now trading around $4,250 after making a high at $4,863. In previous posts we mentioned that price was testing the lower channel boundary and that a break below it would be a bearish sign. Price has nearly retraced all the way to the 38% Fibonacci level. Today's low is important support. Failure to stay above it, will be a sign of weakness and we should then expect more downside. Next downside target is at $3,745 and next at $3,490. I prefer to be neutral Ethereum or even bearish after today's reversal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Rollback to $60,000 after a crazy bull run, as its rise in November was too impulsive and fast



Bitcoin has rolled back to $60,000, and this is the first time in all of November, which provoked a bearish retracement for the rest of the altcoins. Last week, bitcoin was trading at its all-time high at the turn of $69,000.

However, today bitcoin has already tested the $59,000 level, losing almost $10,000 in total in a week. Ethereum also fell by almost 7%.

According to coingecko's analytical data, digital gold lost almost 7% in capitalization, and the capitalization itself fell from 3 to 2.8 trillion dollars.

The chief executive officer of Alpha Impact, Hayden Hughes, said that Bitcoin will now be in consolidation mode for some time.

There are rumors that China is going to impose new restrictions on large bitcoin mining, including for state-owned companies. China has been putting sticks in the wheels of bitcoin all year, banned crypto exchanges from working and blocked the air to miners.

He harshly suppressed the crypto industry, due to the fact that China wants to create its own digital yuan, as well as because of the environmental consequences of bitcoin mining. Bitcoin also falls into the new tax reporting requirements for digital currencies.

US President Joe Biden signed the bill for $550 billion. If we follow the fundamental analysis, then bitcoin should have rolled back and adjusted, since its growth in November was too impulsive and fast, and now we can observe a healthy pullback after the bull run.

It is very unusual to see the accelerated and intensive growth of the cryptocurrency without a rollback and a healthy correction. After such a correction, bitcoin will be traded in a narrow horizontal channel and bulls will accumulate strength for a new breakthrough and accelerated growth of the cryptocurrency.

Throughout this year, Bitcoin has been growing at an accelerated pace, in total, digital gold has grown more than twice, and ethereum almost 6 times. After such intensive growth, a healthy correction is required, which does not carry any special risks for cryptocurrencies.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bullish reversal pattern


Bitcoin plunged in the short term but it seems that it has reached a strong demand zone. BTC/USD dropped by 15.13% from the 69,000 all-time high to 58,563 today's low. Also, it has registered an 11.79% drop since 66,387.40 yesterday's high. Now it is traded at the 60,805 level far above today's low and right above the 60,000 psychological level.

The bias remains bullish despite the current sell-off. Maybe a temporary correction was natural after reaching a new fresh historical high of the 69,000 psychological level. BTC/USD dropped trying to accumulate more bullish energy and to attract more buyers before jumping higher again.


BTC/USD PIN BAR



BTC/USD was under strong selling pressure after failing to stabilize above the weekly pivot point of 65,594.33 or to reach and retest the upper median line (uml). Technically, the price registered a false breakdown with great separation through the 59,953.74 - 58,933 support zone signaling that the downside movement could be over.

As you can see on the h4 chart, BTC/USD failed to reach the descending pitchfork's median line (ml) which is seen as a potential downside obstacle. When the rate fails to reach the median line, the rate could move in the opposite direction.


BTC/USD OUTLOOK

Bitcoin printed a pin bar signaling strong demand right below the 60,000 psychological level. After its false breakdown with great separation below the support area, BTC/USD could start increasing again. Still, in the short term, it could move sideways before turning to the upside.

Personally, I believe that only a new lower low, a bearish closure under the 58,563 level could signal a larger downside movement.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for ETH on November 16 - 17, 2021: sell below $4,299 (EMA 200)


Ethereum (ETH) broke sharply the uptrend channel formed since October 9. Right now, it is trading around the 200 EMA and a recovery is likely in the next few hours towards the level of 4,558.

The 200 EMA located at 4,299 indicates the possibility that Ethereum will continue to rise. A daily close below this moving average could be the start of a bearish scenario and could fall to the level of 5/8 of a murray which coincides with the psychological level of $ 4,000.



The fall of Ether in recent days is due to the strength of the US dollar and the uncertainty that exists in the crypto market regarding the Fed's cut in bonds purchases. These factors are weakening the optimism of the cryptocurrency market and it is likely that the technical correction continues in the coming weeks.

The market volume has fallen rapidly and now the eagle indicator is showing an oversold signal. Ether is expected to consolidate between 4,375 and 4,062 in the next few days. This could be the range as the market awaits the important data coming from the US for a new move that may be decisive for Ethereum.

A consolidation in the next few hours below the 200 EMA located at 4,299 will be a bearish sign and we can sell with targets towards the level of 4,062 (5/8).

If Ether manages to sustain and consolidate above the 200 EMA, it could gain momentum and give buyers optimism and we could see a recovery towards the 21 SMA (4,580). If this zone is broken, ETH could reach the level of 4,687 (7/8).

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell between the two levels below the 6/8 and below the 21 SMA and wait for a bounce around 5/8 to buy with targets towards the 200 EMA.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 16 - 17, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,633
Resistance (2) 4,478
Resistance (1) 4,402

Support (1) 4,234
Support (2) 4,062
Support (3) 4,003


A trading tip for ETH for November 16 - 17, 2021

Sell below 4,558 (SMA 21) or below 4,299 (EMA 200) with take profit at 4,062 and stop loss above 4,650.






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Correction deepens but the parabolic rally is not canceled


Despite a more or less optimistic start to the week, Bitcoin closed in the red on Monday, and on Tuesday dropped below $59,000 per coin. The main question, as usual in such situations, is how deep the correction can be. I suggest that you first study what is happening behind the scenes of the price (which includes everything), and then answer this question.


MASS LIQUIDATION OF LONG POSITIONS

Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of digital assets has dropped by almost 10%, from $2.9 trillion to nearly $2.6 trillion. Although if we evaluate the dynamics since the beginning of the year, capitalization growth is still 250%.

As is usually the case with price collapses, the current correction has triggered significant liquidations. Long positions worth $510 million have been liquidated in the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass. Over $190 million in longs have been liquidated on Bitcoin alone.

Quantitatively, the Coinglass report shows the liquidation of over 152,000 cryptocurrency trading positions. The largest order, worth $8.46 million, was liquidated on Bitmex.


BITCOIN WHALES CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THEIR POSITIONS

It should be noted that the correction did not scare the Bitcoin whales. Firstly, while the main cryptocurrency is holding above $60,000 per coin, secondly, they used the drawdown to build up positions.

Monitoring network data from November 16 shows that the third-largest Bitcoin whale address has increased its holdings by 207 BTC.

The balance of this account is 193,433.46915660 BTC, while they bought additional cryptocurrencies for $12.84 million at a price of $62,053 per bitcoin.

Journalist Colin Wu, covering the event, noted:

"As of now, this address has increased its holdings by 635 BTC in November. The current balance of this address is 108,528.56 BTC, and the unrealized income is 4,632,109,617.37 USD."


BITCOIN ON THE CUSP OF A POWERFUL BULLISH BREAKOUT

This is what cryptanalysts say, who compare the situation on the chart of the main cryptocurrency with previous growth cycles.

In their opinion, the current technical characteristics of BTC resemble its structure at the end of 2020, when the main cryptocurrency consolidated below $20,000 and then soared to $64,000.

It is also noteworthy that Bitcoin is now consolidating below the 161.8 Fibo Expansion level. And during the bull cycles of 2013 and 2017, a parabolic rally in the main cryptocurrency occurred after it broke the 1.618 Fibonacci region. IS


THE UPWARD TREND RELEVANT?

As suggested earlier, an ascending channel has emerged on the Bitcoin chart. At the end of last week, the second minimum, at which the support line can be drawn, has not yet been formed. But if we assume that this border will be parallel to the resistance of the two rising highs (although this is not true, let's assume), then the correction could go deeper into the area of $60,000-$61,000 per coin.

Now this low may be forming, and if the channel assumption is justified, we may soon see the price retrace to the $70,000 area.

In case of breakdown and consolidation below the 60,000-61,000 zone, the main cryptocurrency can be adjusted up to $55,000, or even $52,000 for one bitcoin.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis of BTC/USD on November 16, 2021


BTC/USD, H1 timeframe:



Let's continue to analyze the situation in the cryptocurrency market using the Elliott theory.

Considering the markup of the main cryptocurrency pair BTC/USD on the hourly timeframe, it is assumed that the price has completed its growth within the global impulse wave (A), which consists of five sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5. On the current chart, we see only the final part of this large impulse figure.

There is a high probability that the price began to move within a new bearish trend after the end of wave (A) since apparently, the initial part a new impulse can be observed. The sub-waves of the smaller wave levels 1 and 2 were completed. Sub-wave [1], which is part of the third wave, is expected to be done in the near future, and then the price may rise slightly in a small correction to the level of 64360.55.

Currently, one can consider opening buy deals to take profit at the end of the correction [2].


Trading recommendations:
It is suggested to buy from the current level. Take profit will be considered at 64360.55.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for November 16,.2021 - Strong support on the test

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways downside today and there is test of the major support area at the price of $58,600.


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong selling climax and test of major support I see potential for the upside rotation.

Watch for potential buying opportunities with the potential upside objective at $62,700.

Stochastic oscillator on lower time-frames is showing extreme condition, which is sign for the potential rotation to the upside.

Key support level is set at $57,800






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum rally stops



Ethereum's growth appears to be slowing after posting record gains this November.

It soared more than six times this year, even outperforming Bitcoin's growth by 127%, thanks to speculative enthusiasm for digital assets. The recent upgrade in its network and popularity from DeFi also increased demand for Ether.

But on Monday it went down $ 160 from $ 4,866.



Vijay Ayyar said Ethereum consolidated over the past few days and is optimistic in the long term. He believes that Ether and the Altcoin market will move faster than Bitcoin.

In addition, technical analysis shows that the scope of the last ETH rally is almost the same as the surge from June to September, which subsequently ended. Some analysts see this symmetrical pattern as heralding a similar pullback.

Meanwhile, the TD Sequential study indicated that Ether is preparing for a rollback, and one of its key levels is $ 5,000. Breaking through this will provoke continued growth.

Cryptocurrencies posted some of the highest gains in the markets in 2021, but volatility remains a bone of contention as regulators are tightening their oversight.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 16, 2021

Crypto Industry Outlook:
MyEtherWallet (MEW) launched its first collection of non-exchangeable tokens (NFT) called ETH Blocks on Thursday, which tokenizes individual Ethereum blocks.

Unique images related to ETH Blocks are generated from the block data. These NFTs are only available to MEW users via the MyEtherWallet website.

ETH Blocks can only be minted in the MEW network. Early adopters receive a discount: the first 100 blocks are valued at 0.01 ETH, the next 500 at 0.03 ETH, and all subsequent blocks are priced at 0.05 ETH (plus gas).

Some blocks are of particular importance to Ethereum and will not be available for breaking at MEW. Blocks 1-10 were reserved for the founders of Ethereum - those who contributed most to its creation and development and created the ecosystem we know today.

In addition, 13 blocks that mark key moments in the history of Ethereum will be pre-minted and auctioned from November 11 to December 11. The proceeds from the auction will be donated to thirteen organizations: The Skid Row Trust, Wikipedia, The Internet Archive, Smile Train, Extra Life, Girls Who Code, Petsmart Charities, Go Red For Women, Prostate Cancer Foundation, Red Noses, Gary Sinise Foundation, Create Now and NPR.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair continue the correction towards the level of $4,000 as the recent low was made at the level of $4,258 which is below the technical support located at $4,372. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $4,146 and $4,121. The weak and negative momentum support the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Please notice, the five wave impulsive increase might had been terminated at the level of $4,870 already and now might be the time for a deeper correction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,138
WR2 - $5,019
WR1 - $4,756

Weekly Pivot - $4,615
WS1 - $4,352
WS2 - $4,211
WS3 - $3,960


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 16, 2021

Crypto Industry Outlook:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected the VanEck app for the Bitcoin Spot ETF. This happens after the agency has delayed its decision.

VanEck has been one of the most active companies when it comes to reporting to the SEC to launch the Bitcoin ETF.

Over the past few years, the company has filed multiple applications, some have been rejected by the agency, others have had to be withdrawn itself. However, things changed in the US in October this year when the SEC allowed the launch of two futures ETFs, one of which was VanEck's Strategy ETF.

As such, many felt the Commission would be more open to a cash fund that tracks the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency. So far, however, this has not happened. The latest application to the SEC was rejected after the CBOE BZX Exchange was banned from listing its shares. The Commission finds that BZX has not complied with its obligations under the Stock Exchanges Act.

Furthermore, the SEC added that BZX and VanEck were unable to resolve previous obstacles which were "designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative activities and practices" and "to protect investors and the public interest".

Commission chairman Gary Gensler recently assured that an ETF based on futures contracts will be safer for investors, which is why only such funds have been approved in the United States.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair had terminated the impulsive wave development to the upside and sharply decreased towards the level of $60k. The next big target for BTC is seen at $70,000, but the first target for the wave 5 is located at $70,508. Nevertheless, the wave 5 might had been terminated at the level of $68,987 already and now the market is developing the corrective cycle. The momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook for BTC. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $60,022 and $59,403.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $74,186
WR2 - $71,563
WR1 - $67,476

Weekly Pivot - $68,414
WS1 - $60,726
WS2 - $58,026
WS3 - $54,090


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021