Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Trading Signal for ETH/USD (Ethereum), for July 07 - 08, 2021: Buy above $2,123



The Ethereum is above the 21 SMA and the 200 EMA in the daily chart. It is trading with a bullish bias level after consolidating above the psychological level of $ 2,000.

According to the chart above, we note that ETH / USD could be facing a new bullish wave, and its target will be the 6/8 murray level located at $3,125 for this it should consolidate above the $2,500 level.

The news from the cryptocurrency market is not encouraging as China continues to crack down on mining farms to terminate their mining activity. In recent weeks, Beijing tightened its stance on the crypto market and clamped down on domestic mining farms and crypto exchanges.

Analysts warn that BTC could again fall to the psychological level of $20,000. Besides, Ethereum are running the risk of falling to the level of $ 1,200 that is almost 50% from the current price.

The aim of large investors and miners is to liquidate their positions at a more attractive price and then when a strong market drop occurs to buy again. No doubt, this strategy can also affect the cryptocurrency market and medium investors could get into panic.

Our recommendation is to buy ETH / USD, only if it sustains above the 200 EMA or if it makes a technical bounce in the area of the SMA of 21, (2.123) with targets at $2,500 and $3,125 (6/8).


Support and Resistance Levels for July 07 - 08, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,729
Resistance (2) 2,525
Resistance (1) 2,433

Support (1) 2,269
Support (2) 2,174
Support (3) 2,056




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Supply shock and fall redemption

Bitcoin is stuck, and on the daily chart, consolidation seems to form a triangle. If this is the case, the main forecast still does not change: BTC/USD will move to one of the borders of the wide sideways at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24.

And while there is nothing new on the chart, let's consider what the statistics say about the possible future of the main cryptocurrency.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin will face a "supply shock" amid an increase in coin withdrawal rates. He notes that the holders who bought the main cryptocurrency for a long time, unlike short-term speculators, begin to expand their accumulation. Thus, an increasing amount of BTC is being squeezed out of circulation.

Woo mentioned the ratio of Bitcoins in long-term purchases to those in short-term purchases, also known as the supply ratio. He noted that the former is actively absorbing selling pressure from the whales.

"It reminds me of a supply shock that was barely noticed by the market in Q4 2020. Experts debated whether BTC was the insurance against inflation in the post-COVID world when data indicated that long-term investors were accumulating BTC at a fast pace. Subsequently, the price fell sharply, very quickly detaching itself from the close correlation with the stock," Woo wrote in his report.

At the same time, Glassnode has increased the prospects for the rapid adoption of Bitcoin. The company pointed out that an average of 32,000 new users appear on the network of the main cryptocurrency every day, which is a new high for 2021.

Bitcoin user growth last peaked in January 2018. It amounted to about 40,000, after which it corrected downward along with prices.

"The structure we are facing now is not the same," Woo explained. "New users are taking advantage of the current opportunity to redeem the fall, they will reach the highest level in 2021."

And on Tuesday, data analytics company CryptoQuant reported that the number of transactions of net outflow of Bitcoins from spot exchanges exceeded 60,000 for the first time in a year. And the total number of Bitcoin deposits to wallets of spot exchanges fell to less than 20,000.

BTC withdrawal rates jumped at a time when regulators tightened control over cryptocurrency trading platforms. For example, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has banned Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, from conducting regulated activities in the country "without prior written consent."

What does the dynamics described above say? Generally, the increase in Bitcoin withdrawal rates is seen as the intention of traders to hold onto the cryptocurrency instead of exchanging it for other assets, including competing coins and fiat money.

With the total withdrawal of BTC hitting an annual high, Bitcoin is expected to prepare for yet another period of growth in accumulation.

At the same time, the total reserves of coins of the main cryptocurrency on exchanges have remained relatively stable since May, which indicates that the latest surge in withdrawal of funds practically did not affect the total exchange balance as of Wednesday.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bearish wedge pattern in Ethereum.

Ethereum price action has recently formed an upward sloping wedge pattern. Such patterns usually break to the downside and that is why it is considered a bearish wedge pattern. There is another warning signal supporting the scenario that the break out of this pattern will most probably be to the downside.



Red lines - bearish wedge pattern

Blue line - bearish RSI divergence

The RSI is providing us with the other warning signal to bulls. Price is making new higher highs but the RSI does not follow. This increases the chances of a reversal to the downside. Support by the wedge pattern is found at $2,280. Breaking below it will open the way for a pull back at least towards $2,000. Resistance is found at $2,450-$2,500. The most probable scenario is for price to make a short-term top soon and reverse lower towards $2,000.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Visa will partner with over 50 crypto companies around the world: great news for those looking to spend and convert fiat and cryptocurrencies



Visa recently announced that the company will cooperate with more than 50 cryptocurrency companies, including such heavyweights of the cryptocurrency market like Coinbase and FTX. This is a very big step towards the cryptocurrency market and full digital adaptation. Customers can now directly dispose of their funds and convert cryptocurrencies through their card program.

This cooperation will allow customers to easily convert fiat savings into cryptocurrency and spend their assets in millions of retail outlets around the world, even where cryptocurrency is not accepted.

Everything will be extremely transparent for users, and this will be the most common transaction. Now, in the blink of an eye, you can convert your fiat funds and digital assets, and vice versa.

This is done due to the fact that millions of VISA users are also owners of crypto assets, and millions of online sellers around the world do not want to understand what crypto technologies are, nor get acquainted with the blockchain. At the moment, Visa customers can spend their fiat savings in the shortest possible time, exchange cryptocurrency for money, and receive cashback in the crypt to their card.

This will be a real know-how, since there has never been such a thing in practice that it would be possible to receive bitcoins or ethereum as cashback. Back in late March, Visa announced that it would allow its customers to use USD Coin to settle payment transactions on its platform.

Visa has tested the payment option through the payment platform Crypto.com and the Anchorage Digital asset bank. Customers should be able to use fiat currencies, cryptocurrency assets, and convert them if desired.

This should be a very good impulse for an upward trend for both Bitcoin and all altcoins. After such an application from Visa, even more users will want to buy or exchange cryptocurrency using such a reliable platform as Visa.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Seems Really Undecided

Bitcoin is located at 34,512 level and it continues to pressure the immediate dynamic support. It moves somehow sideways in the short term. Most likely we'll have a strong movement after the current indecision.

Personally, I really hope that we'll have a great trading opportunity soon. We still need confirmation before going long or short. In the short term, the bias is bullish, so we could still search for long entries.


BTC/USD CHANGED LITTLE!



BTC/USD jumped above the descending pitchfork's warning line (wl1) but it has found resistance at the weekly pivot point (34,875.28). Now is pressuring the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (LML).

The bias is bullish as long as it stays above this dynamic support. Bitcoin could increase significantly if it stays within the ascending pitchfork's body.


FORECAST!
Breaking above 36,623 could validate a potential growth towards the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML).

Dropping below the S1 (33,124.51) static support announces a potential decline towards the 30,066 level again.




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Rejected By Confluence Area

Ethereum drops like a rock right now after failing to take out the immediate resistance levels. It seems very heavy in the short term, so we cannot exclude a deeper drop. The price of Bitcoin drops right now, so ETH/USD decline is natural.

Technically, the retreat could be a temporary one. Ethereum is still located above strong downside obstacles. It could only test and retest the immediate support levels before turning to the upside again.


ETH/USD SELL-OFF


Ethereum drops after failing to make a valid breakout through the confluence area formed between 2,389 with the inside sliding line (sl). Now is pressuring the weekly pivot point (2,224.27).

Closing and staying under the pivot point could signal a potential drop towards the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml).


FORECAST!
This could be only a temporary drop. Maybe we'll have new opportunities from the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork. 2,040 is seen as major static support as well.

Coming back above the weekly pivot point (2,224.27) could bring us a new buying signal with the first upside target at the sliding line (sl). The bias could remain bullish in the short term as it stays above the lower median line (lml).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 08,.2021 - Breakout of the symmetrical triangle and potential for drop towards $30.000

Technical Analysis:



BTC has downside and there is the breakout of the symmetrical triangle and downside continuation.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $30.000 and $29.000.

Stochastic is showing oversold condition but with no bull cross....

Resistance is set at $33.400





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 08, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin had dropped through 32100 mark today, before bouncing back finding some support. Believe it or not, the drop looks corrective and bulls are expected to be back in control anytime soon. Traders are advised to initiate fresh long positions around $32,500/600 and also add more if already holding long positions. The crypto is expected to remain in control of bulls until prices stay above $28,000.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading off the day's lows around $32,600 mark and is expected to resume its rally from here. The crypto might have completed an Up Gartley since $36,000 highs and preparing to stage an impressive rally going forward. Immediate support is seen at $28,500 mark, while resistance comes in around $42,000 levels respectively.

A break above $42,000 is required to confirm bulls are back in control and confirm further upside towards $48,000 levels, going forward. Only a break below $28,500 would confirm that the crypto is done on the north side. At the moment, high probability trade setup is looking higher from here.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 28,000, target @ 43,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Authoritative and optimistic forecast for the second half of 2021

In the monthly cryptocurrency newsletter Bloomberg Crypto Outlook for July 2021, Mike McGlone stated that the price of the main cryptocurrency could rise a hundred times higher than the price of an ounce of gold. The senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence explains his forecast with technical analysis.

"Bitcoin may be more than a digital version of gold. A potential path for the Bitcoin price is to stabilize around 100x an ounce of gold and for volatility to resume its downward trajectory, if past patterns repeat."

The price of one ounce of gold is now worth just over $1,800.

Bloomberg Crypto Outlook also noted that the second half of 2021 will be different for the cryptocurrency market compared to the first.

"The crypto market is likely entering a more adult stage in 2H, and we see Bitcoin regaining luster."

The report did not ignore the second cryptocurrency. It noted that the growing adoption of Ethereum is an optimistic sign that the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization may follow the same trajectory as Bitcoin in 2017.

"The go-to platform for cryptos and decentralized finance – Ethereum – appears at a discount within a bull market and could consolidate for a while at $2,000-$4,000. Looking like Bitcoin in 2017, Ethereum has flushed out excessive speculation, while increases in addresses used reflect the accelerating digitalization of money.

Akin to Ethereum at the start of this year, the [sic] Bitcoin began 2017 around $1,000 and peaked just below $20,000. Ethereum could stay within the $2,000- $4,000 range since May roughly until October and maintain a 2017 Bitcoin-like flight plan," as stated in the Bloomberg Crypto Outlook bulletin.

In the perspective of six months, we can agree with this forecast. But the question is still open as to whether growth will begin after the current consolidation in the range of 31082.82 - 41980.24 or after a stronger decline.

Other data suggests that the price of BTC/USD may not fall below $30,000 during the current correction.

So, according to CryptoQuant, a popular online data analysis tool for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the number of BTC outflow transactions from spot exchanges has reached a maximum in a year. This outflow is often seen as a very bullish sign for the price.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price falls on Thursday, en route to the red dotted support at 31,082.82. You should be careful here since a good buy entry point can be formed in the event of a rebound or a false breakout of this border.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum breaks out of wedge pattern.

In our last analysis we warned traders that a bearish wedge pattern formation was in play for Ethereum. Today price broke down and out of the wedge pattern as expected and price is moving lower towards our first target of $2,000.



Red lines - wedge pattern

Blue line- bearish divergence

In our previous posts we also noted the bearish RSI divergence in Ethereum. Combined with the bearish wedge pattern, we warned traders that the most probable direction price would take was to the downside. Price is now at $2,140 and is approaching our first target of $2,000. Resistance remains key at $2,400 and as long as price is below this level, we will remain bearish.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021