Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin: Miners' atypical behavior on Great Migration

The situation on the Bitcoin chart continues to turn around the intermediate mirror level at 34,708.27 within a wide sideways range of 31,082.82 - 41,980.24, in which we discussed the low-risk trading strategy for BTC/USD.

Now, it seems that a second false breakdown of the resistance at 34,708.27 is being formed cautiously, which may create preconditions for the return of the main cryptocurrency quotes to the level of 31,082.82.

Can this situation be regarded as a signal to sell? Very risky. I do not exclude that the decline may stop near the minimum values of Friday and the level of 34,708.27 will continue to be traded on the chart.

What is the reason for the low volatility and consolidation of Bitcoin? First, there is a lack of strong drivers. Secondly, I think the Great Migration of Miners cannot but affect.

Glassnode's data showed that the largest drop in the hash power of Bitcoin mining took place last week - from 38% to 49% in general. At the moment, 50% of cryptocurrency miners have disconnected or migrated from China. However, this does not force these miners to spend their accumulated bitcoins, as one might expect.

According to Glassnode analysts, a drop in hash power in the absence of a significant increase in miners' expenses may be due to their successful movement. They probably successfully moved to new destinations, liquidated their equipment, or reimbursed costs. This could reduce the desire to sell bitcoins accumulated during mining.

Under normal circumstances, migration from China should be accompanied by an increase in bitcoin spending. This is necessary to cover the increased costs associated with logistics, for example, to relocate machines or dispose of them. However, according to Glassnode's analysis, this is not the case in the recent shift. Instead of spending accumulated income, miners sharply reduced their BTC sales even during the Great Migration.

According to the data of the analytical company, since mid-May of this year, the trend of cutting miners' expenses seems to have not only stabilized or stopped, but completely changed. In other words, miners have been spending less than they accumulate since mid-May, challenging familiar historical behavior. They began to accumulate Bitcoins, and the market had never seen such a thing before.

Glassnode analysts stressed that the long-term increase in savings could be due to the growing conviction of miners in the prospects for Bitcoin. Or it could be the result of having better financing options that allow them to hedge risks.

Thus, in the current lull, there is no reason for panic yet. But a certain degree of uncertainty is growing and will persist until BTC/USD reaches one of the sideways boundaries 31,082.82 - 41,980.24.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to move sideways, but soon this will stop.

Bitcoin has formed a short-term triangle pattern as price is moving mostly sideways inside a tightening range for the last few sessions. Price is trapped between $37,000 and $33,000. Price could continue moving sideways for a couple of more days but eventually we will see a break out and a strong move.



Red line - support

Blue line - resistance

Bitcoin as can be seen in the 4 hour chart above, is moving mostly sideways since June 28th. Price has now resistance at $35,500 and support at $33,000. Breaking either of the triangle boundaries will give an important trading signal. Breaking above the blue resistance trend line will open the way for a test of the major resistance at $41,000. Breaking below the red support trend line will open the way for a move towards $30,000 and lower.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD below major pivot level.

XRP/USD is trading below $0.75-$0.80 resistance area. In April price made an impressive break out above major long-term resistance but now price back below this resistance level. Price has retraced around 78.6% of the entire upward move.



Green rectangle - resistance

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement

XRP/USD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price made a low so far around $0.50 but in order to consider this as an important low, bulls will need to recapture the $0.75-$0.80 resistance area. Deep retracements are common in cryptocurrency pull backs. So in this case making such a deep pull back should not come as a surprise. However in order for bulls to regain control of the trend, price must move above the green resistance area and stay above it. Until then price will remain vulnerable to another move lower towards $0.30-$0.40.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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There is a panic on the crypto market: institutions and investors no longer know where the Bitcoin exchange rate will go



The panic regarding Bitcoin is progressing more and more in the cryptocurrency market. A huge number of investors no longer know what the trend will be in the very near future, whether Bitcoin will grow or go into a deeper correction. Enthusiasm for Bitcoin is increasingly declining, since recently Bitcoin has already fallen below the psychological level of $30,000, and various calls from China and a complete ban on cryptocurrencies in the country have instilled panic in the institutions.

At the moment, the fear and greed index is already below 30 percent, despite the futile attempts of various holders and crypto banks to increase this level, we are talking in particular about Michael Saylor.

Already about 45% of people believe that Bitcoin will remain below $100,000 this year, and when the digital asset was trading near its historical highs, namely $65,000, only about 15% only thought that Bitcoin would not break the $100,000 milestone.

Bitcoin is not able to perform all currency functions, it is quoted as digital gold, but the possibility of speculation, financial enrichment and accumulation of their savings attracts various investors, both large players and small ones. After the news from China, it is clear that Bitcoin's situation will remain in limbo for a long time.

Bitcoin losses amount to up to $4 billion a week, which encourages various investors and speculators to panic and sell their bitcoins, because they are no longer able to be on pins and needles with regard to an even larger collapse of Bitcoin. Also, the second largest crypto asset in the world, Ethereum, always breathes into the back of Bitcoin.

Already this year, a new proof-of-stake protocol is due to be released, which will be even better, even faster and even more reliable, so many investors will prefer to choose a safer haven in the face of Ethereum than to risk their fortune and be in a suspended mood by buying Bitcoin.

At the moment, the volatility that is constantly going toe-to-toe with Bitcoin is less worrying than the lack of initiative on the part of investors.

For years, Bitcoin has experienced both recessions and falls, there were very protracted and prolonged bear markets, but when there was a lack of initiative on the part of traders, this led to a halt in the development of the cryptocurrency, because the price drop itself is a periodic and cyclical phenomenon in the crypto arena.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Miners' revenues are falling, investors are waiting for negative news from America



Over the past trading day, nothing has changed for bitcoin, neither fundamentally nor technically. However, not much has changed for the "digital gold" over the past two months either. So far, the bitcoin quotes continue to be in a sideways channel, which is limited by the levels of $31,100 and $40,700. This channel is wide enough, but at the same time, for Bitcoin, $10,000 is not such an impossible task. The fact that Bitcoin volatility has dropped drastically at this time is another matter. Earlier, during an upward trend, 5-6 thousand dollars bitcoin passed in one day. However, what is happening now is what should have happened to Bitcoin before. After the upward trend was completed, which we warned about in advance, since there were several prerequisites at once, the quotes immediately fell down, and then a period of consolidation began. This period can last long enough, and can also alternate with periods of correction. From our point of view, bitcoin will now be in a correction for a year or two, within which it can drop to $20,000 per coin, and maybe even lower. Recall that after the trends of 2013 and 2017, bitcoin inevitably lost up to 90% of its value, and the subsequent consolidation took about 2 years. Considering the fact that in 2020, the rise in the value of bitcoin began due to the pandemic crisis (that is, in some way by accident), it is not surprising that there are not enough investors now who would be able to keep the bitcoin rate on high.

Meanwhile, many crypto experts continue to bet on bitcoin whales in the hope that they will ultimately save the digital gold. According to several analytical portals, the number of coins on wallets with balances from 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC continues to grow and already amounts to 4.2 million coins. In total, there are almost 2000 such wallets. Experts believe that since February, the whales have been actively unloading their balance sheets, since the fundamental background was very weak, which led to the end of the bullish trend. However, now, experts say that the market has absorbed much negative news and stayed above $30,000, which may become a starting point for a new upward trend. We do not support this point of view, but it takes place.

It is also reported that the income of bitcoin miners in June decreased by almost half compared to May. The reasons are the decrease in the cost of bitcoin, as well as the decrease in the number of transactions on the network. From our point of view, everything goes to the fact that the negative fundamental background will continue to put pressure on the bitcoin quotes. Moreover, the process of evicting miners from China has just begun, and the entire crypto community is still waiting for news from the United States, where the authorities can also very seriously "tighten the screws."

24-hour time frame


Technically, Bitcoin fell to the $31,100 support level five times and bounced off it five times. Therefore, at this time, Bitcoin can continue a new round of movement to the upper border of the side channel - the level of $40,700. However, we believe that Bitcoin continues to target the $31,100 level, and we fully support this scenario. The consolidation of quotes below the level of $31,100 may signal the readiness of traders and investors for new sales. Many experts are in favor of the fact that the main cryptocurrency will continue to fall in price and may fall to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin. And some even call the figure $10,000.


4-hour time frame


The 4-hour chart also has an excellent benchmark that is very helpful in trading. This landmark is the trend line, which already has three pivot points. In addition, the bitcoin quotes almost ideally bounced off the Senkou Span B line twice. Therefore, the consolidation of quotes below the trend line may provoke a new movement down to the levels of $31,100 and $29,700. In this case, we recommend selling Bitcoin.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Difficulty of mining Bitcoin has fallen by 28%



Marathon Digital, which is based in Montana and is one of the largest bitcoin mining companies in North America, has updated the production and rigs of miners, which showed significant progress in the production of BTC for the entire year.

In June, the company produced 265.6 new-minted bitcoins.

The Marathon mining fleet in 2021 produced 846 new bitcoins – 265.6 in June, which is more than in May. It should be noted that it produced 226.6 in May, which was a sharp increase compared to January when only 50.4 bitcoins were produced. This was announced in a press release from the company.

Marathon announced the completion of the construction of containers on which they are going to place most of the mining rigs.

According to recent reports, the company expects to expand the scope of its activities in July, August, and September, installing an additional 12,000 miners during these three months.

What would this mean for US mining?

It is possible that these results from Marathon Digital suggest an increase in mining fees for operations in the United States. The growth occurred amid the banning situation on mining of cryptocurrencies in China, which forced many miners to send their rigs abroad. Accordingly, there was an increase in production, and the United States has established itself as a popular country in this direction, as many miners are moving their enterprises to Texas.

According to reports, the difficulty of mining BTC has recently fallen by 28%. CEOs and politicians discuss cryptocurrency mining.

The negative impact of mining on the environment has been the subject of constant debate this year. This happened against the background of China's ban. Some countries have followed the example of China, namely Iran.

However, other countries have come out in support of bitcoins.

Recently, the US Senator of the state of Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, spoke at the CNBC Financial Advisors Summit in support of bitcoins. She cited a study by the University of Cambridge, which reported that BTC mining uses about 40% of renewable energy. In view of this, they announced plans to open mining enterprises in their state.

Several company directors have commented on the impact of the Chinese mining ban as positive for the United States to move mining rigs to the country.






Irina Yanina
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 07, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin might have completed its potential triangle consolidation yesterday around $33500 levels. The crypto has rallied sharply higher since then and made an intraday high around $34900 mark today. A push above $36000 will confirm that Bitcoin is breaking out of consolidation and that bulls are back in control. They remain poised to push through $43000 levels going forward.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $34,560 mark and is expected to continue higher towards $36,000 in the near future. Immediate resistance is seen at $42,600, while support remains fixed around $28,600 levels respectively. A break above $36,000 will confirm and accelerate towards $43,000 resistance, going forward.

It would be interesting to see how prices react around $43,000 mark. Ideally, Bitcoin might pullback after reaching $43,000 levels before deciding further direction. Traders are advised to remain long and buy more on dips until prices stay above $28,500 mark.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 28,000, target @ 43,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Litecoin price analysis for 7 July

LTC retested $135 support overnight.
Next target at $120 support.
Bearish momentum is likely to take over later today.



Litecoin price analysis is bearish for today as the market failed to set a higher high earlier this week and started consolidation around the $135 mark. Therefore, we expect LTC/USD to move lower later today and finally break the $135 support to test further downside once again.

LTC/USD traded in a range of $135.92 – $142.79, indicating a moderate amount of volatility. Trading volume has increased by 14.73 percent and totals $1.64 billion. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization stands at around $9.44 billion, ranking the cryptocurrency in 14th place overall.

What followed was a move higher to 150$, which now acts as a support. After Ripple price attempted to push higher again, a lower high was set around $148 on Monday. From there, the market started to consolidate in an increasingly tighter range above the $135 support.

This price action development means that the $135 support will likely be broken eventually, and further downside will be seen from there. Next, support is located around the $120 mark, and if reached from the current price, it would mean a drop of around 15 percent

Litecoin price analysis is bearish for the next 24 hours as the market set a lower high on Monday and started to form a base from which to move lower again. Once the $135 breaks, we can expect LTC/USD to push towards the $120 mark next and continue the several-week bearish momentum.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 07,.2021 - Symmetrical triangle in creation. Watch for the breakout

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $34.840. There is contraction and potential for the breakout.


Trading recommendation:
Due to the symmetrical triangle pattern in creation, watch for the breakout to confirm further direction..

Downside breakout of the support at $33.000 can lead BTC towards $28.800

Upside breakout of resistance at $36.000 can lead BTC towards $40.000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Binance crypto exchange prepares for IPO

Following Coinbase, many other major cryptocurrency exchanges were puzzled by the issue of placing their shares on the American stock market, which is a very good signal for the world of cryptocurrencies and the digital industry in general. Yesterday, Binance.US, led by former banker Brian Brooks, has hired Manuel Alvarez as its chief administrative officer. Alvarez previously worked for the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation and said in a statement that he joined the company back on July 22nd.



The new CEO continues to strengthen the staff and build up his team since joining the company in May this year. Now the staff has almost doubled, and there are plans to hire about a hundred more people in the next six to nine months. The official statement of the exchange says that Binance.US may eventually become public. Most likely, the placement will be carried out in the next four years. "The involvement of Manuel Alvarez shows that we are not only serious about protecting our customers, but we are also going to be at the forefront, so we will continue to hire the best specialists, the most senior people who will perform various functions for us."

Recently, the cryptocurrency community has been subjected to increasing attention from regulators in different countries. China is putting pressure on the market with its bans, the UK is depriving the largest cryptocurrency exchanges of licenses, and the US supervisory authorities have taken up stablecoins closely. It is not easy for exchanges to live in such regions as Thailand, Nigeria, and Mexico. Executive Director of Binance.US explained that the exchange is completely independent of Binance and simply has a common founder. Brian Brooks also believes that the market has already reached the point of growth where it needs basic foundations, and calls for regulation are good signs of the industry's maturing.

Binance CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao also spoke about regulation and recent pressure from regulatory authorities on his exchange business. He compared the cryptocurrency market to the creation of a car. In an open letter, CZ noted that the adoption and development of cryptography have many parallels with the rules concerning cars, in the sense that laws and guidelines were developed in parallel with the development of this area. "We are seeing a wider spread of cryptocurrencies around the world and the need for a clearer regulatory framework in different countries," CZ said.

And while the regulators of many countries are successfully fighting against cryptocurrencies, the regulatory authorities of Nigeria have not coped with this task. A few months after the introduction of a ban on the use of cryptocurrencies across the country, it became clear that the efforts did not work. The nation is a vivid example of how people turn to cryptocurrency to cope with the difficulties of the economy, despite the state's prohibitive stance.

Let me remind you that in February of this year, the Central Bank of Nigeria ordered banks to identify individuals and organizations that conduct transactions in cryptocurrency or transfer funds to cryptocurrency exchanges, and ensure the immediate closure of such accounts. But this ban did not affect Bitcoin in Nigeria, as the crypto community used the services of direct sending payments to each other.

According to the blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis, the dollar volume of cryptocurrency received by users in Nigeria continues to grow this year. In May, Nigeria received a cryptocurrency worth $2.4 billion, compared to $684 million in December last year.

Nigeria is further proof of how much interest Bitcoin and other altcoins can be to countries with weak economies and banking systems.



As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, it has not changed in any way. Buyers have real problems with the breakout of the $36,000 resistance, which creates quite a lot of problems for further growth. A breakout of this range will lead to a new upward wave to the upper border of the side channel at $41,100. Only after the breakout of this range can one seriously talk about a new wave of BTC growth to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. The bears face a completely different task. To begin with, they need to prevent Bitcoin from exceeding $36,000, but a breakdown of the lower boundary of the side channel around $30,000 will collapse the rate to the lows at $25,700 and $21,650.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021