Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC analysis for July 05,.2021 - Potential for the drop towards $30.000

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading downside and see downside continuation towards $30.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies due to potential end of the upside correction (ABC) and the outside bear bar....

Downside targets are set at the price of $30.000 and $28.920.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition, which is another sign and confirmation for the downside rotation.

Key resistance is set at the price of $36.500




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Institutional investors are testing the waters

While there is a lull in the cryptocurrency market, statistics are beginning to give the first encouraging hints.

The CoinShares report of July 5 showed that last week, cryptocurrency investment funds recorded an influx of funds for the first time in a month. This suggests that institutional investors are again set to increase the price, despite the large-scale market correction.

In total, the crypto funds received $63 million in fresh capital last week. The largest inflow of $29.1 million was recorded by the Canadian ETF provider Purpose Investments.

$39 million or 61% of the total amount was invested in the main cryptocurrency - Bitcoin. But the major altcoins also saw an influx, not an outflow, for the first time in 9 weeks.

The main inflow among alternative coins was noted in Ethereum, which amounted to $18 million. The second cryptocurrency has surpassed Bitcoin over the past week ahead of the long-awaited and hotly debated EIP-1559 update, which is expected to take place this month.

Polkadot received an inflow of $1.2 million, Ripple received $2.1 million, and Cardano received $0.7 million.

These figures may be encouraging for the bulls after a five-week series of outflows. But this is almost nothing compared to the colossal inflow of $4.5 billion that crypto funds collectively saw in the first quarter of the year.

The modest capital inflows recorded last week may indicate that investors are now testing the waters but are not yet ready for the deep dive seen in early 2021.

Moreover, according to CoinShares, Bitcoin's trading turnover has now reached its lowest level since November 2020, which indicates a decrease in interest.

Meanwhile, nothing has changed significantly on the Bitcoin chart. The price continues unsuccessful attempts to break above the intermediate mirror level at 34,708.27 in the middle of the wide corridor 31,082.82 - 41,980.24.

The volatility of the main cryptocurrency has slowed down, and altcoins are not very dynamic either. All previous forecasts remain relevant, and to enter a trade, you need to wait for the entry point with minimal risk.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin continues to gravitate towards the fall



Over the past two months since Bitcoin first collapsed to the level of $30,000 per coin, the cryptocurrency has tried to continue falling below this level 4 more times, and also tried to resume the upward movement two or three times. But as a result, a very clear and accurate sideways channel was formed, which is limited to the levels of $31,100 and $40,700. It is from the boundaries of this channel that bitcoin quotes have bounced off in the last one and a half to two months. For the last two weeks, Bitcoin has been in a very weak movement, not even approaching the borders of the side channel. Thus, it is now the time to talk about a full-fledged flat. In recent months, it has been repeatedly stated that the corrective scenario remains more likely to be executed.

After negative news began to arrive from China, Turkey, India, and the United States, bitcoin is constantly under pressure from the market. Simply put, those who want to sell bitcoin while it is still afloat are much more than those who want to buy it and keep it on their balance for at least several years. The problem now is that the cryptocurrency market is under the threat of a serious tightening of regulation by a number of countries, in particular China and the United States. Moreover, there has never been any positive news for Bitcoin. Earlier, Elon Musk regularly pushed up quotes, but now he has clearly switched to other cryptocurrencies. The long-standing question is how long will the market follow Elon Musk's manipulations? But let's get back to Bitcoin. After all, it is important for us to understand what to expect from it in the future. According to a recent CNBC poll, the majority of executives surveyed believe Bitcoin will end 2021 below the $30,000 mark, and this option was supported by 44%. Meanwhile, about 25% voted for the $40,000 option, while another 25% chose the $50,000 option. Thus, oddly enough, a fairly large proportion of investment managers believe that Bitcoin may show growth in the second half of 2021.

At the same time, the largest British bank Barclays prohibited its clients from transferring funds to the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, which is one of the largest in the world. The bank representatives explained this decision by the fact that they want to help keep their clients their funds. Earlier, the UK Financial Conduct Authority banned Binance from carrying out any activity in the country without prior written approval. At the same time, the Swiss financial holding UBS also began warning its clients about the possibility of losing all their money trading cryptocurrencies. UBS warned that cryptocurrencies are not an investment tool in the truest sense of the word, as the bubble in the cryptocurrency market could collapse at any time. UBS noted the pressure of regulators on the cryptocurrency market, as well as the price volatility of cryptocurrencies. "Regulators have demonstrated they can and will crack down on crypto," said UBS in a statement. "So we suggest investors stay clear, and build their portfolio around less risky assets."

24-hour time frame


Technically, Bitcoin fell to the $31,100 support level five times and bounced off it five times. Formally, the price turned up again and is likely to continue a new round of movement to the upper border of the side channel - the level of $40,700. However, Bitcoin has been aiming to break the $31,100 level for several weeks now, and we believe that this will happen sooner or later. And the consolidation of quotes below the level of $31,100 may signal the readiness of the cryptocurrency for a new fall. Many crypto experts are in favor of the main cryptocurrency continuing to fall in price and may fall to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin. And some even call the figure $10,000.


4-hour time frame


The 4 hours chart also has a great benchmark to help traders in the near future. This reference point is the trend line, which already has three pivot points. In addition, the bitcoin quotes almost ideally bounced off the Senkou Span B line twice. Therefore, the consolidation of quotes below the trend line can provoke a new movement down to the levels of $31,100 and $29,700. In this case, we recommend selling Bitcoin.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Mass vaccination programs against COVID-19 are becoming an increasing obstacle to many governments' pandemic management strategies. Consequently, blockchain companies are working to propose ways the technology can offer to solve some of the logistical difficulties.

Blockchain StaTwig has already tested its blockchain-based VaccineLedger solution in both India and the United States in 2019. In 2021, the company partnered with the Indian giant IT Tech Mahindra to implement the solution worldwide.

VaccineLedger focuses on improving the transparency of vaccine supply chains at the vial level with the aim of anticipating and preventing problems. These are i.a. Inventory Expiry, Counterfeiting, Quality Control and Availability. Just days after the failed attempt to swap vaccines between Israel and the UK, which resulted in the loss of 1 million Pfizer doses, the need for such a solution is more apparent than ever.

The StaTwig solution supports the integration of smart contracts and IoT technologies to detect expiring products as well as provide temperature control for sensitive units. Working with Tech Mahindra, StaTwig will use its resource scaling and system integration expertise to support your solution rollout worldwide.

In addition, the two companies have jointly developed several security modules for mobile and web applications designed to meet the requirements of manufacturers and governments.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,228 and made a new local high at the level of $2,394. Recently, the market had bounced from the trend line support seen at the level of $2,170. The momentum is now strong and positive, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,453. On the other hand, any violation of the level of $2,043 will likely expose the level of $1,941 for a test again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,160
WR2 - $2,743
WR1 - $2,603

Weekly Pivot - $2,208
WS1 - $2,064
WS2 - $1,646
WS3 - $1,514


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The United States sold about 500 Bitcoins seized in 2018, for about $ 19.2 million. It was reportedly the largest net deal in the history of Ohio's Northern District.

Confiscated BTC was sold for nearly $ 19.23 million, acting prosecutor Bridget M. Brennan said on Thursday. The coins confiscated during the investigation were initially valued at around $ 2.88 million. Authorities did not disclose how or where the coins were sold.

The case concerned a 37-year-old man from Toledo, Mark Alex Simon, who produced false identity papers for residents of Ohio, Michigan and Utah. The documents include driving licenses and ID cards. He was paid for services in Bitcoins.

Simon pleaded guilty to fraud and the transmission of false identity documents in June 2019. He was sentenced to two years in prison. Prior to this case, Simon had already been questioned by the police in 2008 for producing false identity papers, but was not charged at the time.

In 2015, authorities spotted counterfeit cards in a bar near Wittenberg University on a website built by Simon. Court documents show that after months of investigation, police were able to link fake cards to Simon and other associates.

Authorities raided Simon's home in Toledo and the homes of others involved. They have taken over more than 500 Bitcoins.

In such cases, the proceeds are shared between federal agencies and local police departments involved in the investigation, and also used to compensate crime victims. Any remaining money is returned to the US Treasury Department.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has moved back to the consolidation zone as the new local low was made at the level of $33,067. The bulls have manage to bounce from the trend line support and are back above $34,000. The momentum is increasing and it is hovering around the neutral level of fifty points. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $36,610 (61% Fibonacci retracement again) and $39,413 (technical resistance). Please notice, that any violation of the level of $32,565 will likely push the momentum back into the negative territory towards the key mid-term technical support is still located at $29,187.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $41,360
WR2 - $38,888
WR1 - $37,348

Weekly Pivot - $34,961
WS1 - $33,339
WS2 - $30,861
WS3 - $29,475


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 06, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has been drifting sideways within a range between $32,500 and $35,500 since last few trading sessions. It might have carved a meaningful bottom around $28,500/600 on June 22, 2021, and might be now looking to resume higher again. The crypto might be targeting $42,000 levels in the near future, which confirms that bulls are back in control.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $34,200 levels at this point in writing and might be preparing to break higher through $4,200 and $48,000 levels in the weeks to come. Immediate support is now seen at $28,600, while resistance is seen towards $42,600 levels respectively. A push through $43,000 would further accelerate towards $48,000 as well.

Also note that Bitcoin bulls have managed to hold around its one year old trend line since $3,850 lows in March 2020. It is quite possible that the uptrend is still intact and Bitcoin bulls might be inclined to print above $65,000 going forward. Traders are advised to hold on to long positions for now.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 28,000, target @ 43,000, @ 48,000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for July 06,.2021 - Watch for selling opportuniites on the rallies

Technical Analysis


BTC has been trading downside as I expected. The price is heading towards the first objective at $29.000


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling on the rallies with the downside target at $29.000

Bollinger bands are contracting and this is sign that breakout is about to happen....

Resistance is set at $37.000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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ETHEREUM Hot Forecast for 6 July



Ethereum price has set up three higher highs and three lower lows since June 23. Connecting these swing points using trend lines reveals a rising wedge formation.

This technical pattern forecasts a 16% downswing to $1,909, determined by measuring the distance between the first swing high and low and adding it to the breakout point at $2,271.

However, the 16% crash could be cut short at the demand zone that ranges from $2,024 to $2,106. Therefore, investors can expect ETH to bounce from this area to shatter the midpoint of the range at $2,320.

If this were to happen, Ethereum price could further rally 25% to tag the range high at $2,912 after slicing through the intermediate barriers at $2,460 and $2,640.

If the selling pressure builds up enough to slice through the demand zone extending from $2,024 to $2,106, ETH will likely head to the intended target at $1,909.

In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price might end up sweeping the range low at $1,728. If the smart contract token fails to climb above $1,728, it will invalidate the bullish thesis.




Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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China furthers crypto crackdown with new restrictions

Bitcoin volatility continues to decline progressively in the summer. It looks like the cryptocurrency is becoming less interesting to the average person after its biggest drop in May this year. Against this backdrop, the Chinese authorities decided not to stop their "bitcoin crackdown" program and announced that they would soon take action against a number of companies that ignored the central bank's demand and continued to provide cryptocurrency-related services.

Apparently, the Chinese cryptocurrency market will soon go even further into the shadow sector, which will create new problems for the supervisory authorities. The largest cryptocurrency rose 3.7% to $35,094 before falling after the People's Bank of China and Beijing's local financial regulator announced that companies engaged in business in the field of cryptocurrencies need to close their businesses. The regulator requires financial and payment institutions to not directly or indirectly provide services related to digital currency, the PBoC and the Beijing regulator said in a statement. Among the prohibited activities are also marketing and promotion services.



This suggests that although China does not yet directly influence the cryptocurrency by introducing a complete ban on it on its territory, its actions continue to exert pressure on the further growth of the industry in the country.

Bitcoin has long been under the crossfire of regulatory bodies not only in China but also in several other countries, as it is viewed as a threat to digital currencies that developed countries, including China, are planning to release soon.

Recently, China has been paying a lot of attention to the cryptocurrency industry, introducing restrictions on mining, trading, and other services, as well as putting pressure on banks and financial institutions that previously were involved in the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies. Many miners have closed their business and are now trying to transfer it to other countries. This greatly affected the hashrate.

The situation is developing in a similar way in the UK. An increasing number of crypto firms out there are withdrawing their filings with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). According to the latest data, more than 64 firms have already withdrawn their applications and will not be able to work in the UK. Most likely, the list of cryptocurrency companies that refuse to register with the UK financial regulator will continue to grow. Companies wishing to provide cryptocurrency-related services in the UK must register with the FCA before doing business. However, the anti-bitcoin governance and this state of affairs endanger the whole existence of this industry in the UK. It is reported that only six firms have successfully registered with the FCA and that dozens more are being evaluated.

Let me remind you that recently the FCA announced that Binance is prohibited from engaging in cryptocurrency activities in the UK. The company has already removed all advertising material from its sites and mobile applications hosted and used in the UK. The exchange has also indicated on its website, social media channels, and all other communities that it is prohibited from operating in the UK. All transactions on Binance Markets are prohibited until a written order from the supervisory authority.



As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, it has not changed in any way. Buyers have real problems with the breakout of the $36,000 resistance, which creates quite a lot of problems for further growth. A breakout of this range will lead to a new upward wave to the upper border of the side channel of $41,100. Only after the breakout of this range can we seriously talk about a new wave of BTC growth to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. The bears face a completely different task. To begin with, they need to prevent Bitcoin from exceeding $36,000, but a breakdown of the lower boundary of the side channel around $30,000 will collapse the rate to the lows at $25,700 and $21,650.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ethereum ETH/USD, for July 06 - 07, 2021: Key level $2,300



According to a 4-hour chart, Ethereum is trading above the 200 EMA and 21 SMA, showing signs of a likely bullish move with targets towards the strong resistance at $ 2,500 4/8 murray zone.

Some traders and analysts believe that Ethereum ETH / USD could rise 40% in the next few days. They could be right, but technically ETH should break and consolidate above $2,500 where there is the 4/8 of murray. It is important to watch this key level to be able to buy.

Conversely, if ETH leaves its bullish channel on 4-hour charts and consolidates below 2,150, it will be an opportunity to sell with targets at 2/8 of murray around 1875.

Our recommendation is to sell ETH, since the eagle indicator is in the overbought zone. A rise to the 2,500 level is likely. If it fails to consolidate in this zone, it will be a selling opportunity with targets at 1,875.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 06 - 07, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,587
Resistance (2) 2,488
Resistance (1) 2,349

Support (1) 2,162
Support (2) 2,011
Support (3) 1,872




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021