Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Speed Discorrelation. Morning review of the cryptocurrency market on March 2, 2021

The recovery of the cryptocurrency market is going according to plan. Some of the scenarios have been worked out, some are still in the works. While for some coins, technical uncertainty persists. But the speed of bitcoin and altcoins over the past day is different. So, the main cryptocurrency grew by 4.30%, Bitcoin Cash - by 13.25%, and Ripple - by only 4.11%. Meanwhile, Ethereum added 7.01%, and Litecoin - 8.59%.

Bitcoin has cautiously consolidated above the level of 48178.13 broken yesterday and is still consolidating on it. A rollback to this horizontal can be one of the stages of confirming this level as support. When bouncing up, the target for growth is the level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion. An alternative scenario is a return to the level of 48178.13 and a decline to the support of 45553.17.



Bitcoin Cash has worked out the evening growth forecast, reaching the horizontal resistance of 551.56, marked with a red dotted line. From the current position, both a decline and a return to the range of 465.48 - 508.94, as well as an increase, are possible. If the resistance of 551.56 is broken, the next target for growth will be the level of 611.50.



The technical guidelines for Ripple have not changed much. The pair is consolidating above the broken level of 0.4348, the margin for growth to the next target of 0.4769 (blue segment) remains. However, if we take into account the fact that last time the pair also consolidated above the level of 0.4348 but then fell under it, we consider the possibility of an alternative scenario - a decline to the level of 0.407 (marked with a red horizontal).



Ethereum reached the resistance level of 1572.74 (blue dotted line) and pierced it with a shadow. But it didn't. It is worth noting that within the current values, it is more appropriate to talk about the area of 1519.84 - 1572.74. Exiting it up will open the path for ETH/USD to the next target of 1697.27 (red dotted line).

Alternative scenario: if the price of ether consolidates under the area of 1519.84 - 1572.74, the quotes will open the way to the level of 1436.48.



Litecoin has grown rapidly within the range of 171.25 - 186.48 today. The resistance has not yet been reached, the power reserve to it is still small. And then, as usual, everything will depend on whether the quotes will be able to break through the level of 186.48, or turn down from it. If the quotes break and consolidate above 186.48, the next target for growth will be the horizontal 195.06, marked with a red dotted line.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Forecast for Bitcoin, March 2, 2021 - BUY. February gain + 10.93%

1. Volume analysis of bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In this analysis, we will use the data on horizontal trading volume from the Binance exchange on daily charts. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the direction of the horizontal level with the highest trade volume within a day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The level with the highest traded volume is the level where the maximum number of transactions has been made. This is the level of a major market player. Thus, if the maximum volume level moves higher, this indicates an uptrend. A downward movement of this level indicates a downtrend. A chaotic movement signals that the market is trading in a sideways trend.

26.02.21 – The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) – 46955
01.03.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) – 48980

The POC has moved upwards. The price is above the POC level. The market seems to start moving upwards, so you can open long positions.


2. Long-term trend analysis.

A trend is your friend. Many traders know this expression but do not know how to apply it to life. The answer is simple: you should trade only in the direction of the trend. This way, your trades will have more profit potential with less risks. The classic Dow Theory describes three main trends:

-long-term;
-medium-term;
-short-term.

You need to analyze these trends before opening any trade. This is what we are going to do in the analysis below.

The long-term trend in this analysis is a daily trend. Trades will be made on the daily chart and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out with the help of the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candle closed above the EMA (48), it means that we are facing an uptrend and should open long positions. If the daily candle closed below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and we should open short positions.



On the chart, we can see an upward trend. The price is above the EMA (48). In this situation, you may open long trades.


3. Medium-term trend analysis.

The medium-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA (48). If the candlestick closes above EMA (48) on the 4-hour chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA (48) on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is above the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is upward. Therefore, it is recommended to open long positions.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

In this analysis, the short-term trend is a trend on the H1 chart. It can show a point where we can enter the market. Here, we will again use the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the candlestick closes above the EMA (48) on H1, this means that the quotes are trading upwards and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA (48) on H1, this indicates that the trend is downward and we should go short.



The price is above the EMA (48). The short-term trend is upward. The long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends coincide. It is recommended to open long trades.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily trading chart. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closed upwards, the candlestick is white. Its high is above the high of the previous candlestick. The price has formed a candlestick pattern with a full body and small shades. An upward movement looks likely.


6. Conclusion.

Volume analysis: BUY.
Long-term trend: BUY.
Medium-term trend: BUY.
Short-term trend: BUY.
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY.

Conclusion: On March 2, you can open long positions.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, we will keep the data on completed transactions. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. Trading account monitoring: Trading account monitoring:



The monthly gain in February 2021: +10.93%.

Statement:
At the moment, we keep the position:

02.03.21 Bitcoin BUY: 49249,81 SL: 44455; the risk is 1% of a $10,000 deposit with a trading volume of 0,02 lot.

Stop-loss orders for new trades can be placed beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set Take-profit orders, as we will continue to move SL beyond the extreme points of the future sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will make a profit!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 2, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Compared to a pattern that is almost identical to what happened when bitcoin futures were first launched, CME's inaugural month of ethereum has turned out to be overwhelmingly bearish.

Futures contracts allow institutional investors to hedge against future asset price movements with the option of shorting them. As with bitcoin, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched its products as Ethereum was on its way to a record high. The price of ethereum pulled back heavily, and those who shorted on CME were right.

CME launched its Ether futures contracts on February 8. At that time, the value of the asset was around $ 1,600. On February 21, the price of ethereum hit an all-time high of $ 2,050. However, it has since recovered 30% to today's prices of around $ 1,450 - 10% lower than when the futures contracts were launched.

Since the launch of CME futures, ETH underperformed BTC. However, a similar situation occurred with BTC, which underperformed ETH after the launch of CME futures.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has failed to break through the trend line resistance located at the level of $1,600 and reversed back towards the level of $1,535, which is the intraday technical support for bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,478, but even if this level is hit, then the next most important target for bulls is the overbalance level located at $1,619. As long as the market trades below the overbalance level, the correction might develop. Please keep an eye on the RSI indicator as it clearly shows the momentum is barely positive.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,368
WR2 - $2,149
WR1 - $1,728

Weekly Pivot - $1,511
WS1 - $1,076
WS2 - $857
WS3 - $438


Trading Recommendations:

During the recent corrective cycle Ethereum has lost almost 50% of its value , but the longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 2, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

JPMorgan Chase saw the benefits of adding a small percentage of Bitcoin to a wallet with multiple assets. The company's global head of research, Joyce Chang, and vice president of strategic research, Amy Ho, wrote in a letter to customers:

"In a portfolio with multiple assets, investors can likely add up to 1% of their cryptocurrency allocations to achieve any performance gain in the portfolio's overall risk-adjusted returns.

However, strategists explained: "Cryptocurrencies are investment tools, not funding currencies. Therefore, we recommend hedging with financing currencies such as the yen or the US dollar to hedge a macro event.

While many analysts believe Bitcoin is a way to hedge against significant fluctuations in traditional asset classes including stocks, bonds, and commodities, JPMorgan has doubts. Last week, an investment bank said Bitcoin was "an economic showcase," adding:

"Crypto assets continue to be the worst hedge against large drops in stocks, with the dubious benefits of diversification at prices well above production costs, while correlations with cyclical assets are increasing as cryptocurrency ownership is mainstreamed," the company said.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the low seen at the level of $43,121, broke above the short-term trend line resistance and made a new local high at the level of $50,126. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $52,036, but before this level is hit, the next most important target for bulls is the overbalance level located at $50,265. As long as the market trades below the overbalance level, the correction might develop. The intraday technical support is located at $48,021.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $66,669
WR2 - $61,820
WR1 - $52,326

Weekly Pivot - $47,444
WS1 - $38,017
WS2 - $33,139
WS3 - $23,184


Trading Recommendations:

The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin can be killed by its creator. The mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto is capable of destabilizing the market.



The world has seen a dozen self-proclaimed creators of bitcoin since 2010. However, it is still not known for certain who Satoshi Nakamoto is and if there was such a person at all? Most experts tend to believe that there are one or more IT specialists behind this pseudonym, who are the creators of bitcoin. However, it is still unknown exactly who it is. Thus, something else is known. According to the calculations of many analytical services, it turns out that a person or group of people under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto are not only the creators of bitcoin, but also one of its largest holders. In the hands of this person or group of persons, more than 1.1 million coins can be concentrated, which is currently the equivalent of $ 50 billion. Naturally, these coins are not at the same address. However, if their owner decides to sell the coins, it can bring down the bitcoin quotes. It is worth recalling that there can be no more than 21 million coins in total. Of these, about 2 million coins have not yet been mined. About 13 - 14 million coins are in the wallets of their owners and do not participate in the movement. It turns out that the entire bitcoin market now is a maximum of 5 million coins. What will happen if 1 million coins arrive on this market at once? The price will collapse. However, this scenario sounds like science fiction. Even in 2010, few people believed that bitcoin would be worth $ 50,000. They were then paid for pizza. However, there is another opinion. Most likely, bitcoin is already separating itself from such a thing as dependence on a single investor. Of course, this process is not very fast, but the more popularized the cryptocurrency, the more owners it will have, the less volatile it will be. Sooner or later, all the coins will be distributed among a huge number of investors and traders. Imagine if at least one billion people on the planet will have a certain amount of BTC, the total number of which can not exceed 21,000,000! This means that the price of bitcoin will be much higher than it is now, but at the same time, no one will be able to move the cryptocurrency quotes with tweets on the social network. That is, in 10 years, bitcoin can really become as similar as possible to ordinary fiat money, while it will remain completely anonymous and decentralized. However, this point is still very far away and the cryptocurrency has to overcome many obstacles on the way to the status of a single world currency.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin will be worth $ 318,000.



Despite the fact that there is no new data on large purchases of bitcoins by institutional investors, the popularization of bitcoin continues. Many experts agree that an extremely important moment is about to come for bitcoin, which can become a turning point for the entire crypto industry. Currently, bitcoin is mainly used as a means of investment. In the near future, a decision whether it can really become an international and decentralized means of payment, or if it will survive another speculative growth and again collapse somewhere in the region of $ 10,000 per coin is at stake. Citibank experts believe that after some large companies, such as Tesla or Mastercard, have declared their readiness to work with bitcoin to the whole world, many other companies may follow their example. However, working and investing are different concepts. There are not so many companies in the world that have declared themselves as major investors in bitcoin. And many banks and payment systems that have declared their readiness to work with bitcoin are ready to simply provide services for storing and transferring cryptocurrency to their customers. However, in our humble opinion, everyone who would like to buy bitcoin did it without banks. With banks, this service for a certain category of investors can become a little easier and more convenient. Citibank experts also believe that the low cost of transfers speaks in favor of bitcoin. At the same time, experts warn that large institutional investors have begun to buy cryptocurrency as a means of fighting inflation, but with the economic recovery, the profitability and attractiveness of the real economy will increase, which may force many investors to leave bitcoin and find more attractive and less dangerous tools for investing. Citibank experts also believe that bitcoin is quite capable of reaching the price of $ 318,000 in 2021. However, such an increase in value will occur only if the number one cryptocurrency manages to get the status of "digital gold". Bitcoin is already called "digital gold", but it has not yet become such in the full sense of the word. Citibank managing director Tom Fitzpatrick recalled that in 1971, US President Richard Nixon untied the dollar from the equivalent of gold, which led to the growth of the precious metal in the next 50 years. According to Fitzpatrick, the emergence of bitcoin was a response to the global financial crisis of 2008. At that time, central banks announced that they would stick to a policy of ultra-low rates and non-stop money printing to stimulate the economy. This explains the growth of bitcoin in 2011 - 2013. The conditions that were created in the world in 2019 - 2021 are in crisis, which contributes to the growth of alternative investment tools, such as bitcoin. Fitzpatrick also identified four-year cycles, each of which ends with a strong growth of bitcoin. Now, this cycle is just coming to an end.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The $44,000 support withstood, Bitcoin recovered to $50,000. What's next?



There has been a relative lull in the cryptocurrency market over the past few days. Bitcoin was adjusted, and so were the other cryptocurrencies. Yesterday, bitcoin began to rise in price again and returned to the level of $50,000 per coin. However, after the quotes fell from the level of $59,000 per coin, such an upward movement cannot be considered an unambiguous resumption of the upward trend. Unfortunately, the main market drivers are silent. The last few weeks were held under the auspices of Elon Musk and MicroStrategy, who talked about bitcoins, invested in it, and generally put the cryptocurrency on the front pages in every possible way. However, there is a lull at the moment. MicroStrategy said it would invest an additional $15 million to bitcoin, but what is $15 million when the company has already invested more than $1 billion? From our point of view, the most important thing right now is the fact that the $44,000 support has held and the price has not managed to gain a foothold below it. It is this moment that can become the starting point for a new round of upward movement. There is no point in forming various trend lines and channels now. There is an avalanche-like fall, and we have an avalanche-like growth. That is, a movement that is constantly accelerating. Therefore, the longer such a movement carries on, the less likely it is to continue. In the case of bitcoin, making any predictions is a thankless task. Many believe that the cryptocurrency will grow to $100,000 per coin in 2021. If the US government continues to pour trillions of dollars into its economy, some of this money will definitely flow to the cryptocurrency market, which will cause an increase in demand and an increase in the price of digital assets. Also, much this year will depend on what measures to regulate the cryptocurrency segment will be taken by the largest central banks? For example, the Fed or the ECB. Recall that central banks want to either completely get rid of cryptocurrencies, or depopularize them as much as possible, that is, to stop using them for traders. But this is not so easy to do. Therefore, the war against bitcoin and its brothers will continue. But the most important moment will come when buyers think that they have already had enough profit and now need to sell, not buy. It has already been mentioned that bitcoin is a great investment tool. What other instrument shows such volatility and such profitability? But this is not money, not a means of payment, and it does not have many qualities to keep savings in it and pay for purchases with it daily. This means that investors will start to get rid of it sooner or later, since bitcoin is not really worth anything, it is just a piece of code.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bullish technical pattern in BTC/USD

BTC/USD is trading around $48,000 after a pull back towards $43,000 during the weekend. Price has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern and is now breaking out of it. As long as price is above $43,000 we could see a move to new all time highs towards $60,000.



Red lines - wedge pattern

BTC/USD has broken out of the wedge pattern and usually when such break outs occur, price moves towards the start of the wedge pattern. The entire pull back from $58,258 could very well be just a pause in the bigger up trend and that is why give importance to this break out. This could be the start of the next upward move towards $60,000. Support is found at recent low at $43,117. Price has broken also above recent high of $48,313 that produced the $43,117 low, breaking the sequence of lower lows and lower highs.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 01 - 02, 2021: Buy above $47,000



The Bitcoin miners are very clear about the strategies they adopt, since they are conserving more cryptocurrencies than they sell in the markets. According to metrics from blockchain research firm Glassnode, after two months of spending, miners are saving their mining rewards again.

For example, during January, daily sales were higher with caps reaching almost 24,000 BTC. However, in February the trend began to decline by more than 50%.

This strategy suggests that if the miners' saving trend continues or increases, the price of bitcoin could rise further. The reason is that it would decrease the supply of BTC in the cryptocurrency markets, which would accentuate the shortage of bitcoin.

This analysis, we can see it reflected in the 4-hour chart of BTC, after having broken its downward pressure line, it is now trading, above the SMA of 21 and above the EMA of 200.

The medium-term objective is to reach the $ 62,500 area, therefore, we technically notice this bullish signal.

Our recommendation is to buy the BTC at current price levels with targets at $ 50,000 and $ 56,250.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 01 - 02, 2021

Resistance (1) $48,770
Resistance (2) $50,709
Resistance (3) $54,124

Support (1) $45,250
Support (2) $43,280
Support (3) $41,341




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 01,.2021 - Watch for selling opportunities due to overbought condition

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTCis losing the momentum on the rally and that there is potential for the downside movement.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $48,300

Support levels: $46,00




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021