Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 24, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its decision to approve the Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC delayed its decision to notify the ETF from Texas-based family-owned Valkyrie Digital Assets after receiving comments on a proposed rule change for the new fund.

In line with Tuesday's official request by the SEC, the committee felt it was appropriate to set a longer period for action on the proposed rule change for the Bitcoin ETF. Valkyrie initially filed for a Valkyrie Bitcoin Trust on the New York Stock Exchange in January of this year.

The SEC noted that it had received comments on the fund, which were published in May 2021. The authority said it was extending the review period for the ETF by 45 days, postponing the decision to August 10.

The new regulatory delay comes shortly after the SEC delayed the approval of another large ETF, extending the review period for VanEck's Bitcoin Trust last week for the second time this year. The regulator said the SEC was looking for additional public comment over a 45-day period.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made the local high at the level of $34,716 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $34,843. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is seen at the level of $35,188. The nearest technical support is located at $32,156 and the Bitcoin price is trading between those two levels now. The momentum is neutral and the market conditions are not overbought yet, so odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $47,340
WR2 - $44,234
WR1 - $39,697

Weekly Pivot - $36,451
WS1 - $31,670
WS2 - $28,714
WS3 - $24,054


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 24, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
President Joe Biden nominated Brian Nelson as Undersecretary in the US Treasury Department. This is for a position in the terrorism and financial crime unit.

If the nomination is confirmed, Brian Nelson announces the implementation of a legal act containing regulations related to cryptocurrencies.

The purpose of the announced changes is to counteract money laundering, with the subject of cryptocurrencies being treated as a priority. The nominee admitted that the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020, which the US Congress passed this year, would give the authorities the ability to regulate any currency, regardless of its form. The potential undersecretary in the US Treasury Department confirmed that "his priority will be the implementation of this legal act along with cryptocurrency regulations":

The new regulations would allow transactions made with the use of digital currencies and other assets to be brought under the provisions related to counteracting money laundering and terrorist financing. Additionally, last month, the government instructed cryptocurrency exchanges to report all transactions for amounts exceeding $ 10,000 to the Internal Revenue Service (the IRS is nothing more than the US tax office).


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has reversed towards the local technical support located at $1,887 after a failed bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $2,102. The recent price action looks like a V-shape reversal price pattern, nevertheless the bulls were capped at the level of $2,043 and the Pin Bars are being made just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $2,064. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,102 and this level must be violated in order to continue the bounce, otherwise the odds for the corrective cycle to resume are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,146
WR2 - $2,878
WR1 - $2,557

Weekly Pivot - $2,297
WS1 - $1,962
WS2 - $1,702
WS3 - $1,348


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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JPMorgan: Only 10% of surveyed institutions trade in cryptocurrencies



Bitcoin continues to trade between the levels of $31,100 and $40,700, tending to overcome its lower border. And the fundamental background for "digital gold" remains so negative that it becomes difficult to expect anything other than a new fall. In recent weeks, the view that $30,000 per coin is the lower limit for the value of bitcoin at this time has been actively circulating in the crypto community and on the internet. They say that institutional investors, as soon as they see such a price, will immediately rush to buy coins, since this price will be two times lower than the April one, which is very attractive. But only MicroStrategy rushed to buy bitcoins. Moreover, there is an opinion that it is institutional investors who can save bitcoin from a new fall of 80-90% in value, which is a characteristic of all the upward trends of bitcoin. However, we have the following facts: institutions are in no hurry to invest in bitcoin, miners are being kicked out of China, the States are going to tighten regulation of cryptocurrencies, the entire cryptocurrency market is falling, and shares of companies related to cryptocurrency activities are falling along with it. Thus, at this time, we can conclude that institutions are getting rid of bitcoin coins. By the way, Tesla shares have been growing in price in recent weeks. Does this mean that the company has already quietly sold all of its coins? According to a survey conducted by the investment bank JPMorgan, only 10% of surveyed institutions are engaged in cryptocurrency trading, and 30% prefer to stay away from the cryptocurrency market. The poll took place on June 22 at a conference attended by about 3,000 investors and representatives of 1,500 financial institutions. 80% of those who have not invested in cryptocurrencies before reported that they do not intend to do so in the future. Also, about 80% of investors surveyed believe that the authorities and central banks will further tighten control over cryptocurrencies. Earlier, the Bank of America conducted a similar survey, the results of which showed that 81% of managers consider Bitcoin a "bubble". From our point of view, this means that, in some way, the cryptocurrency market peaked in April this year. It is far from a fact that even during the next wave of Bitcoin purchases, which may occur in a year or two, or even later, the number of investors will increase. And if the number of investors does not grow, it will be extremely difficult for bitcoin to show growth to $100,000 per coin. In any case, in the next year or two, we expect a long consolidation of the instrument, during which we expect the quotes to decline even to $10,000 per coin.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Why are bitcoin prices still falling?



China's regulators, taking a tougher stance on cryptocurrencies, managed to partially explain this drop in bitcoin prices. However, Wall Street analysts believe that the new aggressive stance and statements of the US Fed on interest rates and monetary policy, as well as bond purchases, also play a key role.

According to Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies should grow on their own over the years. However, they were pushed up by the Fed's measures over the last period of time. In other words, Wall Street analysts think that the stock market is the only asset class that has outperformed itself because of last year's massive stimulus programs.

And since the Fed surprised investors on June 16 by announcing two potential interest rate hikes by the end of 2023, bitcoin prices have fallen by 16%, namely to the level of $ 32,000. Many market observers have suggested that the Fed is trying to reduce the heated asset prices.

Bitcoin's price declined and reached the $ 29,458 mark on Tuesday as traders continued to consider Jerome Powell's speeches.

In comparison to the all-time highs of $ 63,000 reached in mid-April, Bitcoin is down by almost 50%. The reasons for this were the measures taken by Chinese regulators against cryptocurrency mining in their country, as well as the negative tweets from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk about the harmful effects of bitcoin mining on the environment.

So now that Bitcoin is below the level of $ 30,000, traders are preparing for the next wave of sales.



According to the forecasts of Western analysts, if the price falls below this level of $ 30,000, it will be a very bearish factor from the viewpoint of technical analysis.

Thus, the level of $ 20,000, which many experts have recently pointed out, is not at all excluded. This will not mean that the bull market of cryptocurrency is over, instead, it will indicate that long positions can be gained from this price.





Irina Yanina
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Litecoin Growth Expected!

Litecoin seems determined to come back higher after registering a false breakdown below the $117.58 lower low. The cryptocurrency could increase if the price of Bitcoin will jump higher after printing a pin bar.

Technically, a temporary decline was somehow expected before really developing a strong upwards movement. Still, in the short term, LTC/USD could move sideways before really deciding to come back higher.


LTC/USD SELL-OFF IS OVER!



Litecoin is trading in the green at 132.35 level and it could jump higher as long as it stands above 117.58 and above within the ascending pitchfork's body.

Personally, I would like to see a test and retest of these support levels before jumping higher. In my opinion, LTC/USD needs more bullish energy before developing an important upwards movement.


OUTLOOK!

Its false breakdown through 117.58 and failing to stay below the downtrend line represents a bullish signal. Moving sideways and making a new higher high, a valid breakout above the S1 (138.74) could bring us a new long opportunity.

The median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork could is seen as a major upside target.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for June 24,.2021 - Watch for potential buying opportunities intraday

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upside today and I see potential for second upside leg towards the $36.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential buying opportunities intraday with the upside target at $36.000.

BTC is in corrective mode and ABC upside correction is in progress.

The $36.000 is important for the potential reversal....





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for June 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above 32,700

During the North American session, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading above the 21 SMA and above the 5/8 of Murray, showing a bullish signal with an immediate target at the 200 EMA located at 36,356.

Cryptocurrency traders are pausing for breath after the bearish price action on June 22 when it bounced from the low of $ 29,000. This brief rally of Bitcoin (BTC / USD) to the $ 34,500 level triggered a rally for altcoins. Now traders expect a broader market rally to hit the price of 43,750.

Some traders saw the correction of BTC to the psychological level of 30,000 as an opportunity to buy cheaply, and now they are holding their buy positions, bearing in mind the prospects of taking profit at the psychological level of 50,000.

In the 4-hour chart, you can see that BTC has formed a bullish pennant. If the price consolidates above 34,000, its target can be located at the 6/8 of murray around 37,500 and the 200 EMA at 36,356.

The bullish outlook we have for Bitcoin for these days is based on the fact that it is now located above the SMA of 21, which favors the uptrend. In addition, the eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal.

Therefore, we recommend buying at current price levels or wait for a technical bounce off the 21 SMA around 32,700 with targets at 36,356 and 43,750 in the short term.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 24 – 25, 2021

Resistance (3) 37,518
Resistance (2) 36,099
Resistance (1) 34,535

Support (1) 32,358
Support (2) 31,552
Support (3) 30,133




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Signs of a bull market and three scenarios for BTC/USD

The technical picture on the Bitcoin chart shows that the threat of a bear market has passed, the main cryptocurrency and the market as a whole retain growth potential. Below we will consider the main arguments in favor of their further medium-term strengthening.

Right now, the Cryptocurrency Market Fear and Greed Index shows extreme fear. In two days, the indicator shifted from a state of fear to extreme fear. This could be a sign of a high level of anxiety in the market where investors are irrationally dumping coins. Such situations often form good entry points for buying, which is now confirmed by the technical picture for Bitcoin.

Analysts who track the dynamics of the average transaction fee for Bitcoin note that there are prerequisites for a bullish reversal of the cryptocurrency, and BTC may rise above 40,000 per coin.

So, historical data on the average transaction fee shows that it fell from July 2018 to January 2019. Along the way, the price of the main cryptocurrency on the chart was growing. Now, if this trend repeats, the recent drop in transaction fees would push Bitcoin up at least 20% from current prices.

It is noteworthy that a false breakout by a long shadow of the key Bitcoin support level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line), as well as the subsequent cautious recovery, was accompanied by an increase in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. According to data from coinmarketcap.com, the entire market capitalization increased by more than $200 billion in a day. This would not have happened in the transition to a bear market.

Some experts associate the fall in Bitcoin with the approaching expiration date of derivatives.

At the same time, the technical picture on the chart remains very indicative: long lower candlestick shadows, a rebound from support at 34,708.27 (red dotted line), and its false breakout indicate that there is a large player here defending the area near $30,000 per coin. He does not let the price go below, and so far he has enough strength for it.

Until the level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line) is truly broken, until the level is consolidated below the horizontal at 28,392.99, it is too early to talk about the advantage of the bears. With such a technical picture, it remains to wait for a recovery in a wide sideways trend 28,392.99 - 41,980.24.

Now let's take a look locally. The nearest target for growth, resistance 34,708.27, has not been taken yet. Its breakdown and consolidation above will open the way for BTC/USD to the level of 38,610.88. It is not yet clear when this will happen. Predicting terms on the market is a thankless task, so we will not.

Possible scenarios now look like this: first - breakout and consolidation above 34,708.27 and growth to the horizontal at 38,610.88 (upper red dotted line); the second is the continuation of consolidation in the range between the levels 34,708.27 - 34,708.27. The third - and so far, apparently, unlikely - is a true breakdown of support at 34,708.27 and the level of 28,392.99. Fixing below them will be a bearish signal for the market.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin could reach $37,000 again as long as price is above $32,000.

Bitcoin has made an impressive reversal to the upside after breaking below $30,000 and is now trading around $34,300. Price has potential to move higher but bulls are still not out of the danger of seeing price below $30,000 again.



Green rectangle - support

As long as price is above the green rectangle support at $32,000, price has potential to move to a higher Fibonacci retracement level. The most probable target would be the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Inability to break above $40,000-$41,000 will lead to another sell off below $30,000. Bulls need to keep making higher highs and higher lows in order to regain control of the trend. At current price levels I prefer to be neutral if not bullish Bitcoin, looking for a move towards $37,000 in the short-term. A lower high and rejection around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would be a bearish sign. Failure to hold above the green support area would also be a bearish sign.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for XRP/USD (Ripple), for June 25 - 28, 2021: Buy above $0.6230



XRP / USD, Ripple, having found strong support at the psychological level of $ 0.50, is now trading above the 21 SMA on 4-hour charts around 0.6575. With this bounce of more than 27% profit for a few days, XRP finds some stability.

Crypto investors seem to have calmed down. We believe that the digital currency market could be in a consolidation phase for a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

This market is very volatile. Just as returns are very attractive also in the face of falling prices, you can lose more than 50% in a few days. This is exactly what happened in the month of May and in these last weeks.

The declines that we have seen in recent days are due in part to events that arouse fears and panic among investors and market participants. However, unless long-term fundamentals change, the smart investor should use corrections to buy.

The moving average of 21 (0.6230) will give bullish prospects to Ripple. While it is located above this level, we believe that there will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 0.7812 there is the 4/8 of murray.

On the other hand, a correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci area will be also a good opportunity to buy, there also converges the 3/8 of murray, which acts as double support.

Our recommendation is to buy above the 21 SMA or if it makes a technical bounce at 3/8 Murray with short-term targets at 0.7812. The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 25 - 28, 2021
Resistance (3) 0.7823
Resistance (2) 0.7360
Resistance (1) 0.7073

Support (1) 0.6323
Support (2) 0.5860
Support (3) 0.5573




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021