Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 03, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin's counter-trend rally continues as the crypto has completed its first leg around the $50,200 mark. It might be preparing for a drop as the second leg of correction before rallying towards the $51,000/52,000 levels to complete its corrective rally. The crypto is seen to be trading around the $49,300 mark at this point in writing. It is expected to rally further towards $52,000 after a corrective drop.

Immediate support is seen at the $43,000 mark, while resistance comes in around the $58,300 level respectively. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between $58,300 and $43,000 is seen passing through the $52,000 mark. If it reaches this level, it may rise higher.

Bitcoin bears might be targeting the $37,000 level in the near term, but a break lower would open doors towards the $24,000 level which is Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $58,300 since March 2020. Only a break below one year trend line support would threaten the existing up trend.


Trading plan:
Remain short with stop @ 60000, target @ 37000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The Financial Times criticized Citibank analysts for an implausible forecast for bitcoin.



Yesterday, we talked about the fact that analysts of one of the world's largest banks, Citibank, made a fairly optimistic forecast for bitcoin. According to the bank's experts, the cryptocurrency will increase in price to $ 318,000 per coin and it will be assigned the status of "digital gold" in the 21st century. According to Citibank, "bitcoin is experiencing a turning point at this time, the successful overcoming of which will open up truly huge prospects for the token." Journalists of The Financial Times criticized it, accusing Citibank of excessive optimism with hints of the commissioned nature of the article. Journalists of the publication called the conclusions made by Citibank as shocking, and many calculations and figures of the study were called into question. According to Citibank experts, about 36% of small and medium-sized businesses in America approve of using bitcoin as a means of payment. The Financial Times was surprised by this figure, as it was taken from a resource that is not trustworthy. Simply put, Citibank used figures in its calculations and analysis that need to be checked at least ten times before using them as reliable. Moreover, many of the figures are overly optimistic, which suggests that the bank's report itself is custom-made. As you know, in order for bitcoin to continue growing, and its large investors to continue to get richer, it is necessary that more and more new investors will join the upward movement. Thus, the more potential investors and traders believe that bitcoin is almost guaranteed to continue to rise in price, the better for large holders of bitcoin. Accordingly, they can create an artificial hype around bitcoin. For example, due to such reports of major banks, or due to the comments of their own and other world-famous personalities who advertise bitcoin and recommend buying it. There is a process of banal advertising of cryptocurrency in order to get more and more people to buy it. From our point of view, it will be very difficult to continue strengthening the number one cryptocurrency in the world. No one is immune from the fact that tomorrow Elon Musk will not buy another couple of billion dollars worth of bitcoins through Tesla and the rate will not rise to $ 65,000 per coin. However, any hype movement sooner or later will come to an end. We have already seen the first wave of bitcoin sales. Now the bulls are trying their best to maintain the uptrend. But if they fail to do this, then a second wave of sales will begin, which may be much stronger than the first. The $ 44,000 support remains key for the cryptocurrency.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Peter Schiff criticized Wall Street investors for buying bitcoin



Bitcoin is resurrected. At least, it tries very hard to be. After the traders failed to overcome the support level of $44,000, there is a steady desire of the market to resume the upward trend. However, in recent days, there is very little news that could suggest what awaits bitcoin in the future. Of course, the lack of news does not mean that transactions in the cryptocurrency market are not concluded, and investors have gone into the shadows. If a new wave of purchases of bitcoin begins, this will be reflected in the chart of the movement of "digital gold." But since it is important for us to take into account all the available factors in the process of forecasting the value of the cryptocurrency, we try to pay attention to everything more or less significant. So far, the key factor is really the support of $44,000 per coin, which could not be overcome. There were also data for February, according to which bitcoin miners earned more than $1.2 billion in a month. But such a large amount of earnings is a consequence of the growth in the value of the cryptocurrency itself. Five months ago, this amount would have been five times lower.

The well-known economist and president of the brokerage company Peter Schiff, who is an ardent supporter of gold and a critic of bitcoin, once again took a ride on "digital gold." According to Schiff, only fools invest in bitcoin, and he did not expect that there would be so many of them. Earlier, Schiff said that bitcoin is the largest bubble in the history of mankind. "Bitcoin owners are more confident than investors during the dot-com bubble and the mortgage crisis," Schiff said. He also noted that bitcoin can collapse at any time and lose up to 90% of its value, while gold will remain stable in price. Moreover, the end of the 2020-2021 pandemic crisis may lead to an even greater increase in the value of gold. Schiff recalled that during the 2008 crisis, gold fell by 25%, but then rose and updated its highs in value. In 2020-2021, gold fell in price by only 15%. Thus, the confrontation between the supporters of classic gold and digital gold continues. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has returned to the level of $50,000 per coin and will now try to break through this psychological mark. Bulls need to trade cryptocurrency more actively, as any hype is usually much less prolonged than the movement that precedes it. In other words, the rise of bitcoin will not last forever. This is a wave, and it is quite short-term. It is unlikely that it will continue for more than 1 or 2 months. So, it is already possible to think about the fact that the cryptocurrency will start a strong fall. New investors are needed for growth, new good reasons are needed.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ichimoku cloud analysis of Bitcoin

BTC/USD is trading around $47,839 turning a bit lower after an upward move from $43,117. In Ichimoku cloud terms price remains in a bearish trend but got rejected today at an important resistance. It is crucial for bulls to hold above $47,300, otherwise price will be vulnerable to a move lower.



Price got rejected today at the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). This rejection if followed by a move below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $47,300 then we could see more sellers pushing price lower towards $43,000. Breaking below $43,000 will make price push lower towards cloud support at $37,000-$38,000. The longer price stays below the tenkan-sen the higher the chances of moving lower. Bulls need to recapture $50,325 in order to resume the up trend.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD for March 02 - 03, 2021: Buy above $49,000



The Bitcoin for today March 2, is trading above the SMA of 21 and above the EMA of 200, supported by the eagle indicator showing a bullish signal.

In the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, we note that the bullish wedge pattern that we explained yesterday in the analysis, is acting in favor of the uptrend, now its next goal will be $ 56,250, there is the +1/8 of murray, that is likely to reach this level due to the prevailing bullish force.

We can also notice the formation of a symmetrical triangle, this pattern is a bullish figure, if the bitcoin breaks above this, a bullish movement is likely to reach the $ 52,500 and $ 56,250 area in the short term.

On the contrary, a correction to the SMA of 21, located at $ 47,150, this will be a good opportunity to buy, because the moving average supports the bullish trend and is acting as a strong support.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 02 - 03, 2021

Resistance (1) $50,486
Resistance (2) $52.194
Resistance (3) $55,013

Support (1) $47,570
Support (2) $45,250
Support (3) $43140




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 02,.2021 - Potetnial for the downside rotation towrads $43.330

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found thatthe upside movement decreased in power and that there is potential for the downside rotation.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $50,000

Support levels: $43,330




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 02, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has raised through $50,250 highs today, before pulling back lower again. The crypto is seen to be trading around $48,800 levels at this point in writing and is expected to find resistance between $51,000 and $52,000 levels going forward. Immediate price resistance is intact at $58,300 mark, while support is seen around $43,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin has been retracing its earlier drop between $58,300 and $43,000 respectively and is expected to hit strong resistance around $51,000/52,000 levels going forward. Thereafter, bears might be inclined to take control back and drag prices lower towards $37,000 mark. Please note $37,000 is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the last one year rally between $3,840 and $58,300 levels respectively.

Probability remains for a bullish bounce around $37,000 and Bitcoin might resume its rally towards a new high before resuming lower again. But if prices continue to break below $24,800, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally, it can drop further towards $15,000 levels before finding support again.


Trading plan:

Remain short with stop @ 60,000, target @ 37,000 at least.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Cryptocurrencies continue to grow, and Bitcoin promotes investment in Altcoins: Reasons and Forecast

The cryptocurrency market is starting to recover after a weekly market correction. Over the past day, the main digital assets have risen in price by an average of 5-12%. However, the hardest part is yet to come. Despite the steady growth since the beginning of the week, the positions of crypto assets are just starting to get close to indicators where problems can begin.

Over the past day, bitcoin managed to overcome the psychological threshold of $50,000, but a few hours later it moved back to $48,000. The coin failed to gain a foothold, but there is every prerequisite that the cryptocurrency will be able to hold on to new positions on the next attempt. This is evidenced by the renewed flow of investment from MicroStrategy, as well as reports of the introduction of bitcoin as a means of payment in hundreds of stores around the world by Rakuten companies.



The situation is improving for Ethereum, which has risen in price by 12% over the past day. Having reached a local low of $1,300, the crypto asset managed to overcome the $1,500 mark. In addition to the overall growth of the market and the positive economic situation, the growth of ETH was influenced by indirect interest from the Dubai-based company D7, which relies on altcoins. Recently, the company announced the creation of a fund for operations in the network of currencies Etheruem, Cardano, and Polkadot. This announcement clearly contributed to the growth of the ether, which has recently kept away from high-profile announcements.



The XRP token shows less joyful results and continues to be quoted at $0.493. However, taking into account the information agenda, it is worth recognizing that the Ripple coin shows a very large margin of safety.



Litecoin, like XRP, does not succumb to the general rate of growth of quotes and develops its own unhurried rhythm. The coin made a big leap on the morning of March 2 and is worth $180 as of 10:00 UTC.



The cryptocurrency market shows overall growth for the second day in a row. It is quite possible to assume that the main digital assets have overcome the price correction and are beginning to create a springboard for future records. This is an expected but unconfirmed scenario. The market may continue to fluctuate for a few more days because the main coins are only being selected to the optimal price indicators.

However, some conclusions are already being drawn. For example, it became clear that large investors were divided into three main categories in their policies regarding Bitcoin. The first group was convinced that the first cryptocurrency "plays" according to the rules of the market and does not depend solely on the current economic form of large investors. This conclusion means that bitcoin is an excellent tool not only for investment but also a promising means of payment. The second group includes companies that take a wait-and-see attitude and cannot say for sure how important Bitcoin will play in their portfolio.

And the third group, which is gaining momentum, is disappointed in Bitcoin, but not in the cryptocurrency market. This includes Bill Gates' investment funds, D7 companies, and other global market participants who have given up trying to influence Bitcoin and focused on investing in altcoins. Such a plurality of views can have both positive and negative effects on the market. However, there is no denying the increasing interest in digital assets in the first months of 2021.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Forecast for Ethereum, March 2, 2021 - BUY SELL. February gain + 10.93%

1. Analysis of ETH/TUSD volume on the Binance exchange.

In this analysis, we will use the data on horizontal trading volume from the Binance exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the footprint-profile theory. According to it, the movement of the level with the highest traded volume during the day can indicate a possible direction of the trend. The level with the highest traded volume is the level where the maximum number of transactions has been made. This is the level of a major market player. Accordingly, if the maximum volume level moves higher, this indicates an uptrend. A downward movement of this level indicates a downtrend. A chaotic movement signals that the market is trading in a sideways trend.

28.02.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) - 1349
01.03.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) – 1519

The POC has moved upwards. The price is above the POC level. The market seems to start moving upwards, so you can open long positions.


2. Long-term trend analysis.

A trend is the trader's friend. Many market participants know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. In this case, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. The classic Dow Theory describes three main trends:

-long-term;
-medium-term;
-short-term.

You need to analyze these trends before opening any trade. This is what we are going to do in the analysis below.

The long-term trend in this analysis is a daily trend. Trades will be opened on the daily chart and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out with the help of the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), this will mean that the quotes are moving in an uptrend and we should open long positions. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), this will mean that the quotes are trading downwards and we should go short.



The price is in line with the EMA (48). The chart shows the sideways trend. In this situation, you may open short and long trades.


3. Analysis of medium-term trend

The medium-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA (48). If the candlestick closes above EMA (48) on the 4-hour chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA (48) on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is in line with the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is sideways. Therefore, you may open long and short positions.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

In this analysis, the short-term trend is a trend on the H1 chart. It can show a point where we can enter the market. Here, we will again use the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the candlestick closes above the EMA (48) on H1, this means that the quotes are trading upwards and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA (48) on H1, this indicates that the trend is downward and we should go short.



The price is above the EMA (48). The short-term trend is upward. The long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide. Therefore, traders can go long.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily trading chart. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closed upwards, the candlestick is white. Its high is above the high of the previous candlestick. The price has formed a candlestick pattern with a full body and small shades. An upward movement looks likely.


6. Conclusions.

Volume analysis: BUY.
Long-term trend: BUY SELL.
Medium-term trend: BUY SELL.
Short-term trend: BUY.
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY.

Conclusion: On March 2, you can open both long and short positions.


7. Statistics.

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. Trading account monitoring:



The monthly gain in February 2021 was 10.93%.


Statement:

We do not open a new position, as the situation in the market is uncertain. Stop-loss orders for new trades can be placed beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set Take-profit orders, as we will continue to move SL beyond the extreme points of the future sessions.

Since trading is carried out on the daily charts, this recommendation remains relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will make a profit!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Buyers Attack $50,000

Bitcoin trades at 49,194 level lower versus 50,250 today's high. It has decreased to retest static support before challenging the $50,000 psychological level again. Jumping and stabilizing above this level could attract more buyers which should lead the rate higher.

BTC/USD escaped from a chart pattern signaling that the corrective phase could be over. The price has found support at the 43,016 level before turning to the upside again. Technically and fundamentally, BTC/USD maintains a bullish outlook after the short-term natural decline.


BTC/USD STILL BULLISH!



BTC/USD escaped from a minor Falling Wedge pattern and now is traded right above the Pivot Point (48,618). Jumping and closing above 50,250 today's high signal that the price should increase targeting the 58,367 all-time high.

The price's failure to approach the S1 (39,628) or at least the 41,986 support level (resistance turned into support) signals that it could resume its major uptrend.


BITCOIN FORECAST & TIPS!

The first warning line (WL1) and the $50,000 level act as strong resistance. Jumping and closing above these levels will be seen as a bullish signal. So, we may have a buying opportunity if the price closes above the 50,250 level.

The R1 (54, 206) and the $58,367 could be used as upside targets.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021