Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Heading for Sunday highs? Cryptocurrency market results on March 15, 2021

The downward correction of the cryptocurrency market has stopped today. The coins have moved to a cautious recovery, so far resembling more consolidation. Nevertheless, technical prerequisites are being created for bitcoin, and then altcoins, to regain their lost positions.

Bitcoin was able to hold above the 100 level on Fibo Expansion today. An attempt to break it (punctures with shadows) turned out to be false, and the pair moved to recovery. Now, the nearest target for bitcoin growth is the level of the previous historical highs - the resistance of 58340.66, marked with a dotted line. And in case of overcoming this level and fixing above it, the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue its growth to the level of 161.8 on Fibo Expansion.



Bitcoin Cash held in the range of 508.94 - 538.35 and is consolidating in the middle of it. The nearest target for the pair's recovery is the level of 551.56, marked with a red dotted line. And if the pair breaks through it and gains a foothold higher, the BCH/USD quotes will open the way to the resistance level of 611.50.



Ripple stopped falling in the range between the support of 0.4071 (red line) and the resistance of 0.4539, which was associated with the recovery of the bitcoin price. Now, XRP/USD can either continue to decline to the support of the corridor, or first descend to its resistance, and then turn down.



Ethereum held above the support area of 1697.27 - 1789.44 (marked with red dotted lines) and is recovering after the main cryptocurrency. Now, if bitcoin reaches a historical high, the price of ETH/USD may rise to Saturday's highs. The nearest target for the pair's growth is the level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum forecast for March 15, 2021 - BUY SELL. Gains for two months +12.21%

1. Analysis of ETHTUSD volume on the Binance exchange.

In this analysis, we will use the data on horizontal trading volume from the Binance exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the footprint-profile theory. According to it, the movement of the level with the highest traded volume during the day can indicate a possible direction of the trend. The level with the highest traded volume is the level where the maximum number of transactions has been made. This is the level of a major market player. Accordingly, if the maximum volume level moves higher, this indicates an uptrend. A downward movement of this level indicates a downtrend. A chaotic movement signals that the market is trading in a sideways trend.

13.03.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) - 1880
14.03.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) - 1850

The POC has moved down, and the price is below the POC level. Apparently, the market has started to move sideways, so you can open both long and short positions.


2. Long-term trend analysis.

A trend is the trader's friend. Many market participants know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. In this case, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. The classic Dow Theory describes three main trends:

-long-term;
-medium-term;
-short-term.

You need to analyze these trends before opening any trade. This is what we are going to do in the analysis below.

The long-term trend in this analysis is a daily trend. Trades will be opened on the daily chart and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out with the help of the EMA(48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA(48), this will mean that the quotes are moving in an uptrend and we should open long positions. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA(48), this will mean that the quotes are trading downwards and we should go short.



According to the chart, the trend is upward. The price is above the EMA(48). In this situation, you should open long positions.


3. Medium-term trend analysis.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend is a trend on the four-hour chart (H4). The EMA(48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used in analysis. If the candlestick closes above the EMA(48) on H4, this means that the quotes are moving in an uptrend and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA(48) on H4, this means that we have a downtrend and we should sell.



The price is in line with the EMA(48). The medium-term trend is sideways. Therefore, it is possible to open both buy and sell orders.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

The short-term trend in this analysis is a trend on the H1 chart. It can show a point where we can enter the market. Here, we will again use the EMA(48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the candlestick closes above the EMA(48) on H1, this means that the quotes are trading upwards and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA(48) on H1, this indicates that the trend is downward and we should go short.



The price is below the EMA(48). The short-term trend is downward. Therefore, traders can go short.

The long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily trading chart. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closed downwards, the candlestick is black. The extreme points are within the extreme points of the previous candlestick. The candlestick pattern is Harami. A downward movement is highly likely.


6. Conclusions.

Volume analysis - BUY SELL.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY SELL.
Short-term trend - SELL.
Japanese candlestick analysis - SELL.

Conclusion: On March 15, you can open both long and short positions.


7. Statistics.

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCHUSD. Trading account monitoring:



Gains for two months amounted to 12.21%.


Statement:
At the moment, we keep the position open:

09.03.2021 Ethereum BUY: 1831; SL: 1619; Risk: 1% of a $10,000 deposit with a trading volume of 0.48 lot

Stop-loss orders for new trades can be placed beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set take-profit orders, as we will continue to move SL beyond the extreme points of the future sessions.

Since trading is carried out on the daily charts, this recommendation remains relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will make a profit!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin pulls back after reaching bullish pattern target

Bitcoin reached new all time highs the past weekend and has also reached our inverted head and shoulders target just above $60,000. In our past analysis we also given $61,500 as a short-term target for BTC/USD but we also warned bulls to be cautious of an imminent pull back.



Red lines - bearish divergence

Blue line - support

BTC/USD remains in a bullish trend as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. Support by the blue trend line is found at $50,800. Bulls do not want to see price break below this level. Bulls were warned that a new higher high in price would most probably be followed by a lower high in the RSI and thus providing another bearish divergence warning signal. Price broke out of the short-term bullish channel and is vulnerable to a pull back towards $50,000-$52,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BITCOIN, for March 15 - 16, 2021: Sell below $58,500



After a weekend of great success, and reaching a record level never recorded, the largest cryptocurrency is registering mixed results during the opening of the session on Monday and with a downward correction probability.

After hitting all-time highs of $ 61,700 over the weekend, Bitcoin was unable to sustain bullish momentum, falling below the 21 SMA in 4-hour charts, located at $ 58,500, also the eagle indicator is showing bearish signal.

Looking at the 4-hour chart we note that Bitcoin has a dynamic resistance zone at $ 58,500, and an uptrend channel, which a few hours ago we saw a technical rebound at that level.

A break of the uptrend channel, there could be a technical correction to the levels closer to $ 50,000.

Our recommendation is to sell below the 21 SMA around $ 58,500, targeting the bottom of the bullish channel, and if it breaks sharply, to the psychological level of $ 50,000.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 15 - 16, 2021

Resistance (1) $57,870
Resistance (2) $58,226
Resistance (3) $60,287

Support (1) $55,192
Support (2) $52,336
Support (3) $51,043




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple Looks To Trade Higher!

Ripple has changed little lately and it develops a potential upside continuation pattern. The current narrow range makes us stay away before getting confirmation that XRP/USD will develop an important swing higher.

The downside seems limited after the latest development, so we could think that the pair will start increasing again soon. Technically, XRP/USD seems undecided, but coming back above 0.50000 psychological level signals a new leg higher.


XRP/USD PRINTS A CONTINUATION PATTERN!


Ripple passed above the black downtrend line and now is developing a triangle. Its failure to approach and retest the descending pitchfork's median line (ML) signals an upside breakout and a bullish continuation.

It could still increase as long as it stays above the red uptrend line. A valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) represents a first bullish signal. Jumping above the Pivot Point (0.50459) and registering a breakout above the triangle's resistance indicates a strong growth ahead.

The upside scenario becomes invalid if XRP/USD drops and stabilizes under the uptrend line.


XRP/USD TRADING TIPS!

Buy a false breakdown with great separation (Pin Bar) through the triangle's downside line, a major bullish engulfing, or a valid breakout above the triangle's resistance. Getting out from the descending pitchfork's body and from the symmetrical triangle confirms an important swing higher in the medium to the long term.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for March 15,.2021 - Strong selling today and potential for test of $52.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC got sell off as I expected last week.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $61,000

Support level: $52,000




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Where to catch cryptocurrencies now? Morning review of the cryptocurrency market on March 15, 2021

Bitcoin updated its all-time high over the weekend, clearly working out the resistance level formed by the 161.8 horizontal on Fibo Expansion. Following the main cryptocurrency, altcoins also grew.

However, the update of the historical highs was followed by a downward correction, during which all positions were lost. The main question that traders are now interested in is how long this correction will last. The answer to this question can be partially given by technical analysis.

Bitcoin bounced down from the 161.8 Fibo Expansion level after reaching it. And at the beginning of the European trading session on Monday, the main cryptocurrency fell to the level of 100 on Fibo Expansion. Now, it all depends on whether this support will stand. If so, BTC/USD has a chance to recover to the level of 58340.66, marked with a dotted line. And after it - to the historical highs, which is the resistance of 161.8 on Fibo Expansion.

An alternative scenario would be a breakdown of the 100 support on Fibo Expansion and a further decline.



Bitcoin Cash reached a resistance of 611.50 over the weekend. But today, the pair has already fallen in the range of 508.94 - 538.35. There is still a margin in this corridor to the south. But whether the support level of 508.94 will stand or will be broken will largely depend on the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency today. If the price breaks through the horizontal 508.94, the BCH/USD quotes will go lower — to the level of 465.48.



Despite the growth of Bitcoin over the weekend, Ripple continues a systematic decline in the range between the support of 0.4071 (red segment) and the resistance of 0.4539. The margin of support for XRP/USD is still there.



Ethereum reached the level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion over the weekend on the back of bitcoin's growth. But it was not possible to gain a foothold above it, and the quotes are on the way to the support area of 1697.27 - 1789.44 (marked with red dotted lines). If it stands, the ETH/USD quotes may turn up. Otherwise, the price will continue to decline if there is a consolidation under the horizontal 1697.27.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Is Bitcoin's growth over or is this just another small pullback?



This weekend, Bitcoin has managed to update its all-time highs and reached $ 61,000 per coin. However, it started to decline on Monday, which is alarming. It was mentioned in the previous articles that the main digital asset can avoid the 2017-2018 scenario, when the price of the cryptocurrency fell by 90%, since large institutional investors arrived this year in the crypto market. This behavior is explained to be typical for small traders and investors, and most of the Bitcoin owners were just small traders at that time. Therefore, as soon as the markets felt that the price of the indicated cryptocurrency started to fall, a massive sell-off of cryptocurrency immediately followed, which caused a collapse. And since novice traders are chasing short-term profits, they have not kept bitcoin in their wallets for many years, in the hope that its price will rise to $ 100,000.

However, large investors and institutionalists can afford such a long-term investment, since they clearly do not have the last money. The thing is that not all bitcoin coins are concentrated in their hands. The share of inexperienced players or "hamsters" still remains quite high, so the question is, how will institutions behave when the mass sale of bitcoins by small owners, rather than a usual correction, begins? It is expected that they will either hold their course or they will follow the example of other smaller colleagues.

It should also be understood that Bitcoin's price has risen by more than 15 times last year. It is hardly necessary to explain to anyone exactly how the last year differs from other years. Central banks are pouring trillions of dollars into the economy, interest rates are ultra-low, GDP has collapsed dramatically, business activity has been in a negative zone for a long time, and investors have been panicking to find tools that can protect against inflation, as well as yield more than on government securities. All this led to the fact that Bitcoin began to invest exclusively as a crisis option. Therefore, the first hypothesis suggests that as the global economy recovers, the demand for bitcoin may decline, which will lead to a drop in its value. However, no one knows when this will happen. In the near future, the US economy will be flooded with another $ 2 trillion from the US government, and according to rating agencies during the pandemic, Americans have accumulated about $ 1.5 trillion in their accounts, which will also begin to be spent as the economic situation improves. Most likely, this will also lead to the arrival of money in the cryptocurrency market.



From the point of view of technical analysis, the important support area of $ 43,000-44,000 has been maintained, which enables the "cue ball" to continue rising. However, the price of Bitcoin declined by $ 3000 today, which makes us think about a new round of correction. It can be recalled that no matter how many factors speak in favor of further growth of BTC, no asset in the world can become more expensive indefinitely.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Indian authorities to completely ban cryptocurrencies. Plans to develop and popularize own official digital currency



We have repeatedly written that bitcoin, like all other cryptocurrencies, is a "bone in the throat" of the government of almost any state. It is also worth noting that a huge number of different digital currencies exist and existed in the world before Bitcoin, which were simply built on other technologies and were, as they say, "pocket". For example, there are games with millions of users who use the internal currency to buy certain items and things. This currency can just as easily be sold or exchanged for real dollars, but it is not as popular and well-known as some cryptocurrencies are now. However, the cryptocurrency segment has taken over the whole world, and now at every home, grandmothers are discussing bitcoin on a bench. Since bitcoin is a decentralized anonymous system, it is impossible to track transactions within it, or at least quite difficult. Consequently, the authorities can not track who, to whom, where and how much money was transferred, as well as for what services and goods.

Naturally, this does not suit the government, which is used to controlling all cash flows. As it turns out, in this system, it is impossible to track the payment of criminal transactions like tax evasion and money laundering. Accordingly, the authorities of many countries seek to either impose taxes on the cryptocurrency segment to receive at least revenue from it to the budget or completely ban mining and transactions with cryptocurrencies. Such a decision, for example, was taken by the Indian authorities. The official law has not yet been adopted, but many high-ranking officials of this country have shared information that cryptocurrencies will soon be completely banned, and all holders will be given a certain time to transfer their digital assets to others. According to officials, the purpose of this bill is to create an official digital currency in the country, which will be controlled by the Central Bank of India and provided by it.

The Indian government also said that the bill is based on the experience of its neighbors from China, where cryptocurrencies were also almost completely banned. The Indian cryptocurrency business has already announced its intention to leave the country if this bill is passed. It should be noted that such actions of governments will reduce the popularity of bitcoin in the world. However, as long as it is allowed in the European Union and the United States, a serious drop in value based on this factor is clearly not worth waiting for. All crypto investors, especially large ones, will not find it difficult to open and store bitcoins outside of India or China, especially since some banks and payment systems already provide such opportunities. Bitcoin quotes began to fall on Monday, although this weekend, they updated their absolute maximum. In general, the upward trend is still maintained, and the nearest target is located around $70,000 per coin.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

According to regulatory authorities in the Seychelles, despite claiming to comply with local laws, Huobi did not register with the relevant regulatory authorities.

The Seychelles Financial Services Authority, or FSA, has released an official statement saying that Huobi Global Limited is not registered in this country, despite being publicly affiliated with Huobi.com International Business Company crypto services.

The FSA stated that Huobi Global Limited does not have any license from the regulator to trade in virtual assets. "As such, the entity is not regulated by the FSA, nor has it been in the past," they said. The authorities then called on investors and the public to be vigilant with regard to the services offered by Huobi Global Limited as well as "any other company providing such services".

"Huobi Global Limited is a Seychelles registered company within the Huobi Group. We provide services to clients around the world in accordance with applicable regulations. We are currently communicating closely with the FSA to clarify the situation. We understand that this alert will soon be lifted," said Huobi spokesman contradicting the statement.

Pursuant to the user agreement on the Huobi Global website, Huobi Global Limited is a company incorporated in the Republic of Seychelles under the laws of the Republic of Seychelles.

Huobi's official website relies heavily on Seychelles law as part of its terms of service, including multiple mentions of jurisdiction in its legal statement. "This website aims to provide professional, secure and trustworthy digital asset transaction and management services [...] without violating the relevant laws and regulations of the Republic of Seychelles," the statement reads.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving up all the weekend long and made a new local high at the level of $1,940. Ethereum should continue the wave up towards the $2,000 level first and then towards the recent swing high seen at $2,035. The market keeps moving inside of the trading channel, but in order to do so, the technical support at the level of $1,725 should not be violated. Please keep an eye on the RSI indicator as it is pointing down already, so any breakout below the fifty level will accelerate the pull-back towards the channel lower boundary line.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,266
WR2 - $2,113
WR1 - $1,975

Weekly Pivot - $1,820
WS1 - $1,716
WS2 - $1,552
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:

The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021