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    Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

    1. #1704 Collapse post
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      Analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange: bitcoin will continue its growth to $ 90,000

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      While bitcoin continues to "stomp" and "push" around the level of $ 60,000, analysts continue to predict the future value of bitcoin. Many experts of the cryptocurrency market note that April has always been a good enough month for "digital gold", thus, the growth of the number one cryptocurrency will continue. According to the company's calculations, bitcoin can grow to $ 90,000 per coin in April. However, according to the experts of the exchange, a serious correction should first follow - at least by $ 10,000. The company's report also says that in March, bitcoin rose by 30% and shows an increase of more than 10% per month. Thus, the company concludes that the upward trend is likely to continue.

      Meanwhile, CoinShares (which is the largest company in Europe by the amount of bitcoin) has published its financial report for 2020. According to this report, the company's profit doubled due to bitcoin investments. The company's total profit increased to $ 22.4 million, which is 2 times higher than in 2019. The company's assets grew almost 3.5 times in 2020 and now amount to $ 2.4 billion. "The fourth quarter of 2020 will be remembered by the world community as a turning point for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The world has begun to recognize them as a genuine asset class. This new class of financial services has begun to attract institutional capital on a large scale," said CoinShares CEO Jean Marie Mognetti.

      At the same time, various experts tried to explain why bitcoin has not been able to update its highs for more than a month. According to Michael Ross-Johnson, director of the crypto platform Chatex, the news background is to blame. According to the head of Chatex, if a new positive background arrives, then bitcoin will be able to continue its growth. However, the news background should be really strong and positive, as bitcoin is already trading very expensive. Some experts believe that in 2021, the prospects for bitcoin will depend entirely on the mood of large and institutional investors. According to some, when the crisis is over and the economy recovers, investors may want to return to traditional and low-risk investment tools. Thus, the outflow of investments from the cryptocurrency segment may begin. However, for such a development, the majority of investors must want to sell bitcoin and buy stocks and bonds. At the same time, if the world is faced with a full-scale third "wave" of the COVID epidemic, it could provoke governments around the world to provide even greater financial support to their economies. And investors in this situation will continue to flow to the crypto market in the hope of protecting their capital from depreciation and inflation. In this case, bitcoin will continue to grow.

      There is also an opinion that everyone who wanted to buy bitcoin has already done so. The cryptocurrency is heavily overbought, so it is difficult for it to continue showing growth. There is no influx of new investors, and the forces of existing buyers and owners of "digital gold" are no longer enough to continue the growth of quotes. Plus, the current value of the "cue ball" - is high and already a very small number of new investors are ready to buy it at such a cost.




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      Paolo Greco
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      Helpless bulls and the ban of the British bank HSBC to its customers to buy shares of MicroStrategy

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      Yesterday, the bitcoin exchange rate rose to the level of $ 61,182 per coin. That is, it came close to its local and absolute maximum of $ 61,700. However, in the second half of the day, buyers again retreated from the market, thus, it was not possible to update the maximum value, as well as to gain a foothold above the psychological level of $ 60,000. Today, the quotes of the "cue ball" are growing again, but again, it is still unknown how the day will end. Perhaps, in the second half of the day, there will be a pullback down again. On the one hand, in our experience, when the quotes are long and tedious "trample" around one level, they eventually overcome it. Strong corrections or trend completions usually occur abruptly: reaching a certain level and a sharp reversal. However, this is bitcoin, where everything depends on the mood of investors, who bought the cryptocurrency to make money on it, that is, to sell it profitably sooner or later. Thus, if tomorrow the majority of participants in the cryptocurrency market decide that "it's time", then bitcoin can collapse at least by 90%. Of course, in 2021, it will be much more difficult to do this, since now a large number of institutional or simply large private investors have invested in bitcoin. Such people and companies can keep coins on their balance sheets for years. Therefore, we recommend starting from the support levels that are plotted in the illustration below.

      Meanwhile, the largest bank in the UK, HSBC, according to non-official information, prohibits its customers from buying shares in MicroStrategy. Recall that the company MicroStrategy, which is engaged in the development of analytical software, invested more than a billion dollars of free funds in bitcoin, buying more than 90,000 coins. Now the value of this number of coins is estimated at $ 5.5 billion. One of the bank's clients shared the relevant information. The letter, which they received at the end of March, says that the bank is changing its policy on cryptocurrencies and digital assets, as well as on companies that are closely associated with cryptocurrencies. It was also previously reported that HSBC also blocks transfers of customers who are associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. Thus, this is the first case in the world practice when a large bank tries not to popularize the cryptocurrency sector, providing its customers with more opportunities, but rather restricts access to digital products and shares of companies closely associated with them. However, from our point of view, there is nothing extremely surprising about this. Many experts now believe that if bitcoin collapses, then not only the cryptocurrency market will collapse, but also all other financial markets. Over the past year, bitcoin has integrated too deeply into the existing financial system, so its fall will affect the stock market, the debt market, and many other areas. Thus, some large banks may thus try to insure themselves against possible losses in the event of a bitcoin crash. Recall that earlier the quotes of the "cue ball" have twice lost up to 90% of the value after the upward trend.

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      Technically, nothing changes. At the moment, the quotes of the "cue ball" are near the level of $ 60,000, however, it will be possible to talk about fully overcoming it only tomorrow. All three levels of support (the red lines in the illustration) have not been overcome, so from a purely technical point of view, an upward movement is now most likely. Now, if the market participants manage to overcome $ 61,700, then the next target will be the resistance level of $ 65,408.



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      Paolo Greco
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      What is next for Ripple's XRP?

      XRP/USD has provided us a bullish signal after breaking the resistance of $1.06. This was noted in our last analysis with the cup and handle bullish pattern it had formed. Our target was $1.28-$1.33 and it has already been achieved and surpassed.

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      Blue line - major resistance

      Red lines - Fibonacci targets

      Pink line - support

      As we mentioned last week, breaking on a weekly basis above $0.60-$0.80 resistance was big news. The upside explosion it followed has pushed prices to three year highs levels and we already have broken above the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Our next target is close to $2 and more specifically at $1.97. Upside potential remains huge in XRP/USD and looks like it is trying to cover for lost ground relative to the other cryptocurrencies. So far in the daily and intraday charts there is no sign of a reversal or of an important top.



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      Alexandros Yfantis
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      Bitcoin at major resistance close to providing new buy signal

      Bitcoin was forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern as we explained in previous posts. Bulls need to break above the resistance at $59,000-$60,000 in order to activate the pattern. Yesterday price briefly broke out of resistance but soon after turned back below it. This false breakout is not a good sign.

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      Blue lines - bullish channel

      Red rectangle - resistance

      BTC/USD is trying once again to break above the major resistance area in order to continue higher towards $65,000 and $75,000. Trend remains bullish as long as price is inside the blue upward sloping channel. Support is found at $56,00-$56,600. Bulls need to defend this price level otherwise we might see a change in short-term trend.



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      Alexandros Yfantis
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      Ethereum reaches our target from April 1st

      On April 1st in our analysis we noted that our next target is $2,200 for Ethereum as price was recapturing $1,900. Yesterday price reached $1,197 just $3 from our target. Ethereum remains in bullish trend as price continues making higher highs and higher lows.

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      Black line - support trend line

      Red lines - Fibonacci targets

      ETH/USD is respecting the medium-term upward sloping black trend line. Price is bouncing off the trend line and is making new all time highs close to $2,200. There are some warning signs by the RSI as price is making new highs but the RSI is not. As long as price holds above the black trend line bulls will remain in control of the trend. Next upside Fibonacci target is at $2,600. However a pull back towards $1,900 should not be ruled out yet.




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      Alexandros Yfantis
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      Litcoin confirms our bullish setup and makes new higher highs

      In our previous analysis we noted that the back test after the triangle breakout in LTC/USD would be a bullish sign if prices bounced off the upper triangle boundary. Price is now trading at $259 having broken the $244 high made after the triangle break out.

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      Blue lines - triangle pattern

      Red rectangle- back test

      Litecoin is making higher highs and higher lows. After the successful back test the chances for a move towards $300 have increased substantially. The entire crypto space is in bullish mode as prices continue to respect support levels. Price in LTC/USD has support at $216 and our closest target is at $286. Next target is at $332. As long as price is above $216 we remain in bullish momentum.



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      Alexandros Yfantis
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      US National Intelligence Council: Digital currencies pose a danger to the dollar and other currencies

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      Bitcoin continues to target new price records, however, a report by the National Intelligence Council was published in the United States, which states that bitcoin and other digital money pose a threat to fiat money, central banks, and the economies of the world. Among the cryptocurrencies, the authors of the report believe that central banks' ability to influence and control money rates is decreasing, and the influence of monetary policy on the economy is weakening. Banks will no longer be able to fully control the money supply. However, the report was not only about cryptocurrencies, but also digital yuan and digital currencies that may be issued by other central banks. "Digital currencies are likely to become widespread in the next twenty years," the report says. Experts also said that the speed of the spread of cryptocurrencies in the world will depend on the control of this process by governments and central banks. Thus, certain state structures negatively assess the future impact of the cryptocurrency sphere on the economy and the ability of the authorities to control as many processes in the financial segment as possible. We still believe that the cryptocurrency segment will not exist for a long time in the form that it is now, that is, practically uncontrolled by the states. Yes, the governments of some countries have already introduced bans on mining, storing, and transferring cryptocurrencies on their territory. Some have introduced a tax base for the cryptocurrency segment. But the most important thing – full control of the movement of all funds, or at least most of the money or its alternatives - has not yet been achieved. Moreover, there are no prerequisites for creating a mechanism that would allow tracking the movement of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. When such a mechanism appears, bitcoin will either dramatically lose its popularity or will remain to exist only as an investment tool, most of which will already be distributed by that time among large institutional investors. These conclusions do not mean that bitcoin will grow to $ 1 million or, on the contrary, will collapse down by 90% of the value. Hardly anyone could have predicted that during the global crisis, bitcoin will grow from $ 10,000 to $ 60,000. Hardly anyone could have predicted that Bitcoin would grow to $ 20,000 in 2017. Hardly anyone could have predicted the emergence of digital currencies at all, which will excite the whole world for more than 10 years. Thus, making forecasts for bitcoin for a couple of years ahead does not make any sense at all. If not today, then in a year the governments of large countries of the world may realize that bitcoin is harmful to them, and impose a ban on it. Or come up with other norms that will greatly reduce its attractiveness. You don't have to go far for an example. Just this week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen proposed to all countries of the world to introduce a single corporate tax, which will avoid the leakage of capital from rich countries with high taxes. Now, if the largest countries in the world agree on this issue, then corporations like Apple or Tesla will not be able to register separate divisions in Cyprus and pay scanty taxes to the local treasury there. And all the small countries of the world will have to agree to such unfavorable conditions, otherwise, there will be sanctions.




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      Paolo Greco
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      The attitude of institutional investors has changed dramatically to bitcoin

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      Bitcoin has not managed to overcome any of the support that we discussed in previous articles. Thus, the upward movement is resumed. Today, on Saturday, the quotes of the "cue ball" increased by 2.5 thousand dollars, and the price again went above $ 60,000 per coin. Of course, before the update of the previous local and absolute maximum near the level of $ 61,700, it is too early to talk about a full-fledged resumption of the upward trend. The classic "double top" reversal model can still form, however, the cryptocurrency is close to heading for the levels of $ 65,500 and $ 70,000. At the moment, it can be stated that the majority of investors continue to believe in the growth of bitcoin, thus, investments in cryptocurrency have resumed. However, there are few willing to sell the "cue ball", thus, the rate has refrained from overcoming all three levels of support.

      Meanwhile, Tom Jessop, head of digital assets at Fidelity Investments, a financial holding company, said in an interview that bitcoin is now at a turning point for itself in terms of perception by institutional investors. According to Jessop, bitcoin is gradually entering the circle of traditional financial instruments and the attitude of investors to it is changing to a positive one. Jessop also noted that the growth of bitcoin quotes is facilitated by the policy of low rates applied by central banks, low yields on other "traditional" assets, as well as high economic stimulus measures that make investors fear inflation. "I think we have reached a tipping point. The pandemic has been a catalyst for institutional adoption, particularly the use of cryptocurrency as digital gold," Jessop said.

      Earlier, the head of Fidelity Institutional Asset Management, Michael Durbin, said that most managers and investors do not yet fully understand the essence of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. According to Durbin, "the vast majority are in training mode". Durbin predicted an increase in interest in cryptocurrencies over the coming years.

      Thus, although recently there have been no reports of large investments of institutional investors in bitcoin, it seems that large investors continue to slowly buy up available coins, which leads to new updates to the records of the value of the number one cryptocurrency in the world. At this time, even central banks do not pose any threat to bitcoin. There are no rumors that the largest of them are ready to introduce bans or restrictions on the cryptocurrency sphere. Many people are testing their "digital currencies", however, it is still unknown whether they will create real competition for bitcoin and its "brothers". After all, central banks are going to introduce their digital currencies to just reduce the popularity of bitcoin and regain full control over cash flows, which was lost since the advent of cryptocurrencies.

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      Technically, nothing changes. At the moment, the quotes of the "cue ball" are above the level of $ 60,000, however, it will be possible to talk about a full-fledged overcoming only tomorrow. All three levels of support (the red lines in the illustration) have not been overcome, so from a purely technical point of view, an upward movement is now most likely. Now, if the market participants manage to overcome $ 61,700, then the next target will be the resistance level of $ 65,408.




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      Paolo Greco
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      Trading Signal for BITCOIN BTC/USD, for April 09 - 12, 2021: Key level 60,000

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      The Bitcoin BTC/USD, in the morning of the American session is trading below the downtrend channel that converges from the psychological 60,000 level and above the SMA of 21 and EMA of 200, trading within a very limited range.

      Many operators are waiting for the next movement of the BTC, although the market sentiment means that little by little the operators are liquidating their bullish positions.

      Of course, technically we expect a correction towards levels of 50,000 and up to 40,000 for another bullish wave that takes it to 70,000 and 80,000, but everything is pending for now waiting for a catalyst to move the leading cryptocurrency, which for now is consolidates above 56,000.

      On the other hand, Hester Peirce, one of the commissioners of the US Securities Commission (SEC), said that governments would have a hard time banning Bitcoin, I think we have passed that point of banning Bitcoin in the United States soon.

      Because you would have to turn off the internet, and she added, I don't see how it could be banned, the effort could certainly be made. It would be very difficult to stop people from doing it, so I think it would be foolish for the government to try to do it.

      Our recommendation is to sell below 56,250, or very carefully below 59,150, as a strong resistance at 60,000 is located above, targeting the 50,000 psychological level and strong support of 8/8 Murray.


      Support And Resistance Levels For April 09 - 12, 2021

      Resistance (1) $59,560
      Resistance (2) $60,460
      Resistance (3) $61,026

      Support (1) $57,132
      Support (2) $56,170
      Support (3) $54,704




      Dimitrios Zappas
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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 9, 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The miners have returned to accumulation mode. Since the beginning of February, 5,000 BTC have been added to the pool of unused Bitcoin supply.

      So it seems that those mining BTC like block prizes are holding back on anything until prices rise again. The volume of direct transfers of funds from mining addresses to cryptocurrency exchanges also decreased. From mid-March by almost 40%.

      Data from Glassnode shows miners' BTC balances have been increasing since late March, following a heavy outflow in January. The volume of sales consistently decreased in February and at the beginning of March.

      Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Technical Director at Glassnode, highlighted several indicators that confirm the recent accumulation of miners in terms of flows from miners 'addresses, unspent BTC supply and changes in miners' position.

      Glassnode data shows that unspent BTC resources that were never transferred from the original receiver (miner) address began to grow after January's sharp decline when 15,000 inactive coins were first transferred from mining addresses.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The BTC/USD pair has broken out from the consolidation zone under the level of $60,000 and made a new local low at the level of $57,806, which is just below the key short-term technical resistance located at $58,522. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $57,247. If the bulls fail to deliver the new swing high, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement located at $55,227. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $54,719 and if violated, then the 61% Fibonacci retracement at $54,070 will be tested. The next target for bulls is the ATH located at the level of $61,632.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $65,565
      WR2 - $62,712
      WR1 - $60,648

      Weekly Pivot - $57,470
      WS1 - $55,041
      WS2 - $52,150
      WS3 - $49,837


      Trading Recommendations:
      The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.

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      Sebastian Seliga
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