Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD still below key resistance, vulnerable to a move towards $1.30

XRP/USD is still trading below $1.55-$1.65 resistance. Bulls are still unable to break above the resistance are in order to continue higher towards $1.80-$2. As we mentioned in our previous analysis on XRP/USD, as long as price is below $1.60, it is vulnerable to a deeper pull back.



Red rectangle - resistance area

Green line - trend line support

XRP/USD has also broken the green support trend line. Another sign of weakness. However price did not make a lower low than $1.31. Resistance at $1.63-$1.66 if broken will push price towards $1.75-$1.85. On the other hand if price continues to be weak, we should expect it to move lower towards $1.30 maybe break it. Next target would be $1.18. Concluding, as long as price is below the red rectangle area, price is vulnerable to a move lower. If bulls manage to recapture $1.63-$1.70, then I expect $1.97 to be broken with $2.10-$2.20 first target area.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elliott wave analysis on Dogecoin suggests a new low ahead below $0.41


Dogecoin has moved in an impulsive pattern from the beginning of its up trend to recent all time highs. Now it is time for a correction and so far we have seen most probably only the first part of the correction.



Dogecoin has so far retraced up to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and this could very well be wave a of a three wave pull back correction. Wave b most probably is finished but until we break below wave a low, we can not say with certainty that wave b is over. A new higher high above $0.59 is not out of the question yet. Wave c should complete the entire correction with a new low below wave a low and most probably close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. So if you are a fan of Dogecoin, I would still keep away and wait for a deeper correction before buying.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum catches up with bitcoin in capitalization



The decline in popularity and demand for bitcoin can be seen not only in the value of the cryptocurrency. If you open the news feeds, presently, 40% of the total number of messages is devoted to Ethereum. Unlike bitcoin, ethereum continues to grow in price, attracting the attention of investors and traders. Ether is also currently in the first place in popularity, since it is in it that funds are now being invested. The bitcoin dominance index, meanwhile, continues to decline and is already only 42.4%. While the ether dominance index is already 18.3%. The name "ether" is already associated with very famous personalities who openly declare purchases of this cryptocurrency. For example, not so long ago, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, announced that in March of this year he bought both bitcoin and ether. He made this decision after the US Senate approved a new stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion. According to him, Americans do not want to keep their savings in the US dollar, so they buy cryptocurrencies. Suarez also added that Bitcoin has reached a level of community acceptance too high to be banned at the state level. Recall that the Mayor of Miami is a fan of cryptocurrencies and has previously proposed investing about 1% of the city's reserves in digital gold. Earlier, Francis Suarez announced the possibility of paying salaries to civil servants in bitcoins. The official also announced his intention to create a bitcoin mining center in Miami, since, in his opinion, about 90% of miners mine coins using "dirty energy" outside the United States.

At the same time, many experts are targeting the $10,000 mark on ethereum. It turns out very nicely. Most forecasts for bitcoin say $100,000 per coin, and for ethereum - $10,000. Experts expect that it will be on the air in the near future that large investors and institutions will reach out, since this cryptocurrency is also traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, like bitcoin. Also, experts believe that bitcoin has found its fair value in the price range of $50,000 - $60,000, and investors are not ready to pay more at this time. Thus, it is elementary that the attention of investors switches to alternative coins, which, unlike bitcoin, continue to grow. It is also reported that the revenues of Ethereum miners in April increased by 19% and amounted to $1.65 billion.



Technically, everything looks even more convincing. Ethereum has been growing for 14 days in a row, and only during this time it has doubled in price. 2 times in 14 days. Thus, now there really is no doubt that the popularity of the second cryptocurrency is growing at a tremendous pace and may approach bitcoin within 2021. The price is well above the rising channel, which indicates a strong bullish market sentiment.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Binance cryptocurrency exchange has suspended withdrawal of funds



The 61.8% Fibonacci level for bitcoin is somehow enchanted. The price has rebounded from it at least 4 times in the last 10 days, after which it overcame it, and then began a new round of corrective movement. The correction scenario is still the main one for the first cryptocurrency in the world, and there are several reasons for this. The main one is the decline in demand for bitcoin and the flow of capital from bitcoin to altcoins. The influx of new investments is now not enough for BTC to continue growing. Also, the upward trend is clearly drying up, and the cryptocurrency cannot rise constantly. Therefore, in general, we continue to believe that bitcoin should collapse to $47,000 per coin in the near future. Of course, it will be extremely difficult to continue falling even lower, as institutional investors are unlikely to allow this to happen. When bitcoin falls, and most investors are retail, small or "hamsters", everyone immediately begins to dump their coins, which leads to a collapse of 80-90% of the value. But now, a large number of coins are concentrated in the hands of institutional investors, who are unlikely to discount the asset at the slightest price drop. However, "digital gold" may still drop to $47-43 thousand.

Meanwhile, representatives of one of the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency exchanges Binance, which even has its own cryptocurrency Binance Coin, announced the suspension of the withdrawal of any assets on Monday. "Rest assured our team is working on it. We apologize for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your patience," the official statement said. The reasons for this suspension were not given, and this gave rise to a small panic in the cryptocurrency market. How many times has a financial institution failed? Bitcoin fell by about 2.5 thousand dollars on Monday, and this news can become the basis for a further decline in the bitcoin quotes. The question now is how quickly Binance would like to explain to the markets what is going on, and how quickly it will fix the problem. So far, Bitcoin has found support near the Senkou Span B line, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci level – $53,800. But if the situation with the exchange is not clarified today, bitcoin may continue to fall in price.

The Swiss holding company UBS Group announced its readiness to provide large clients with the opportunity and appropriate services for trading and storing cryptocurrencies. Thus, UBS Group has joined the list of the largest banks in the world that have integrated or will do so in the near future in their activities of cryptocurrencies and will open access to their clients to work with them. The world continues to accept bitcoin and expand the opportunities associated with it for every person. However, will this help Bitcoin continue to grow?



In technical terms, bitcoin is fixed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, so now the correction scenario looks promising again. We are still waiting for the quotes to fall to the previous local low of about $47,000 per coin. At the same time, a rebound from the Senkou Span B line or a new consolidation above the 61.8% Fibonacci level will again allow us to expect the growth of the cryptocurrency.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
As one of the world's leading privacy advocates, Edward Snowden believes that Bitcoin is not private enough. Moreover, the long-awaited Taproot update could, in his opinion, make things worse.

Snowden's comments sparked outrage from other activists such as Alex Gladstein. The director of strategy at the Human Rights Foundation believes Snowden incorrectly provided an update known as the Taproot. Others have argued that he does not see the real importance of mainstream adoption of the project.

"Cryptocurrency - and by that name I am talking about Bitcoin - really fails comprehensively, terribly when it comes to privacy," said Snowden Marty Belcher of the Electronic Frontier Foundation at the Ethereal Summit on Thursday. The fire was fueled by the confession that Taproot was not as good a solution in this regard as the lion's share of the community expects.

Taproot, which was first proposed in early 2018, is in the process of being implemented as part of the Bitcoin protocol itself. When it goes online, it aims to improve privacy as well as scalability and security.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair had been rejected from key short-term supply zone located between the levels of $60,000 - $58,322 and fell out of the short-term ascending channel zone.The bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally. The local low was made at the level of $53,789 and the bearish pressure is increasing. The momentum is below the neutral line already, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $52,291, $52620 and $51,239.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $67,229
WR2 - $63,211
WR1 - $60,975

Weekly Pivot - $56,852
WS1 - $54,336
WS2 - $50,318
WS3 - $48,012


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) launched the sandbox in 2018 as the development of financial technology and decentralized digital assets presented new challenges to regulators. Since the inception of the initiative, more than 70 entities, including financial institutions and fintech companies, have asked the regulator to test their new products, services, technologies and business models.

The recently released 2020 CBR Annual Report reveals that the bank allocated three crypto platforms to the sandbox last year. The bank has reviewed the operation of the cryptocurrency mining pool, crypto payment system and digital asset investment platform. However, no details were given on the current test results, but for the positive ones, the Bank of Russia is expected to present a roadmap for their integration.

In July, the Russian parliament passed a law providing for the introduction of special legal regimes for testing digital innovations. The central bank uses its regulatory "safe space" to study the potential effects of such projects. CBR can also outline steps that need to be taken to create the conditions for their introduction to the market.

The Bank of Russia has opposed the legalization of cryptocurrencies in the past, but has offered to allow cryptocurrency mining as long as miners sell their coins outside of Russia. With the entry into force of the Digital Financial Assets Act, digital coins are now recognized and regulated.

However, Russians cannot use cryptocurrencies for payments, government officials cannot own cryptocurrencies, and investments are limited to ordinary citizens. Earlier this year, an annual cap of 600,000 rubles (approximately $ 8,000) was introduced for investments in cryptocurrencies by "unqualified" market participants.

The central bank is currently working on the digital ruble project and is expected to present the first prototype of the CBDC platform by the end of this year. If all goes to plan, the testing phase should start in 2022. In the summer of last year, the CBR presented an updated concept of the digital ruble, after consultations with Russian financial institutions. This is to create a digital currency that would be more convenient for the banking sector.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $4,204, but the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,500 as the up trend continues.The zone between the levels of $4,000 - $3, 980 will now act as a short-term demand zone. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $3,596. The momentum is strong and positive, so it supports the bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,545
WR2 - $4,714
WR1 - $4,394

Weekly Pivot - $3,656
WS1 - $3,369
WS2 - $2,577
WS3 - $2,290


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. The next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $5,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $3,881, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 11,.2021 - First downside target at the price of $55.350 has been reached. Potential for next target at $53.000

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. THe price reached my first downside target at $55.345 and it is heading for the second target at $53.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside targets at $53.000 and $48.140. The main cause for the most recent drop was the rising wedge pattern and momentum decreasing on the upside...




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mark Yusko: Bitcoin will grow to $250,000 in the next 5 years



Bitcoin has started to "target" the level of $47,000 again, but the world is still talking about how much bitcoin will cost in the future. For example, Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko stated that digital gold will grow to $250,000 over the next 5 years, adding to a collection of crazy predictions. Yusko compared bitcoin to major companies such as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, claiming that these companies have reached $1 trillion capitalization more slowly than bitcoin. To be honest, we don't understand how bitcoin can be compared to large companies. Bitcoin is just a piece of code that doesn't do any good on its own, it is a cryptocurrency that was originally created as an alternative to fiat money outside the control of central banks and governments. Companies, on the other hand, are specific assets, production facilities, buildings, real estate, money, assets, goods, intellectual property. That is, everything that, unlike bitcoin, has its own value and cannot fall in price to 0.

Yusko also compared "digital gold" with ordinary gold and said that if all the gold produced in the world is worth about $4 trillion, then bitcoin should also grow to this mark (in terms of capitalization). Thus, each coin will have to be worth about $250,000. It doesn't matter that if 4,000,000,000,000 (dollars) are divided by 21,000,000 (coins), you get the number $190,000. We, in turn, also want to remind you that all forecasts from the category "Bitcoin will cost a million dollars because it is "digital gold" and it is better than Apple shares" are, of course, very interesting, but this does not mean that this will be the case in reality. Recall that it is beneficial for everyone who already owns bitcoin, especially bitcoin whales, if the cryptocurrency continues to grow. And this can only be achieved if the flow of new investors or investments is inexhaustible. Hence, there are regular predictions that bitcoin will cost $ 100,000 or$ 250,000 to attract as many new traders and investors as possible. There are no specific mathematical calculations and analyses in these forecasts.



Technically, bitcoin has completed the upward trend on the 4-hour time frame. The quotes have consolidated below the upward trend line, and, from our point of view, this is a rather powerful signal to continue the downward movement. The bulls are still not strong enough for the growth of bitcoin to continue and the cryptocurrency to renew its highs. At present, Ethereum takes the lead, which just set a new cost record on Monday and, according to experts, is ready to grow to $10,000 per coin.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin medium-term analysis and expectations

So far Bitcoin price action has not been much different from our expectations. At the end of April we warned bears that a bounce was coming in Bitcoin prices and we should expect a move towards $57,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline.



Price made a high just above $59,000 and just above the 61.8% retracement level. Since then price has turned lower towards $54,000 and the rejection could very well lead to a new lower low than that of April. Price has formed a higher low and if it continues to trade weak, we should see more lower lows and lower highs in price action.



Red lines - Fibonacci extensions

Bitcoin has the potential to revisit the April lows around $47,000 and there are increased chances of breaking them also. In fact our favorite scenario is bearish as long as price is below $59,500. Our target is at $42,000 and with a small possibility of extending towards $30,000. This scenario will be confirmed if price breaks below the April low around $47,000. I consider the bounce from $47,000 only a short-term counter trend bounce as I believe Bitcoin has already started a major correction phase.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD remains under pressure, vulnerable to more downside.

XRP/USD price made another dive yesterday towards $1.30 after getting rejected once again at the major resistance area of $1.55-$1.65. Short-term trend is vulnerable to a move towards $1.18-$1 as long as price is below $1.65.



Red rectangle - resistance

Green rectangle - support

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement

Price has so far retraced 61.8% of the rise from $0.88 to $1.76. Support is the recent low at $1.22. We warned traders in a previous analysis that a break below $1.35 would lead to a move towards $1.18 which was our next pull back target. Price so far reached $1.22. Breaking below $1.22 now would be a sign of weakness. This could lead to a move towards $1 or even lower. On the other hand bulls need to recapture $1.57 in order to hope for a trend reversal. So far price has made a higher low at $1.22. If bulls manage to make a higher high above $1.76 then we will have a strong bullish sign implying that a move above $2 is very close.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021