Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin challenges important Fibonacci resistance.

Last time Bitcoin was trading around $58,000 we warned that price was at an important Fibonacci resistance area and we were expecting a downward reversal. Price turned lower and fell as low as $52,900 but now bulls have pushed price again close to the resistance area.



Red rectangle - resistance area

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements

Bitcoin is back at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. Price has not pushed above the latest high. Breaking above $59,000 will be an important sign of strength and could imply more upside should be expected. Resistance is very strong at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and another rejection here will be a sign of weakness. Support is key at $52,900-$53,000 and if this level is broken, we should expect Bitcoin to fall even lower towards $47,000-$49,000.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Investors are moving their capital from bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies.



On May 6, bitcoin did not manage to overcome the important mark of $ 58,000 per coin, which we discussed in recent reviews. This mark is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. At the moment, the quotes of the "cue ball" have worked out 61.8% of the last drop by $ 15,000. But above the level of $ 58,000, the bulls still fail to gain a foothold. We still believe that the correction scenario looks more attractive at this time. Perhaps, bitcoin will continue to grow in the long term and may someday be worth even the notorious $ 1,000,000. Many experts now note that bitcoin, which usually led the other cryptocurrencies, now behaves oppositely. Ethereum continues to rise in price and update records of value. However, bitcoin can not continue the upward trend since mid-April. Most experts now agree that the so-called "altcoin season" has begun. Bitcoin is already very expensive, and the more expensive it is, the fewer investors want to buy it since the growth of "digital gold" is still limited to some level. Bitcoin remains an investment tool, and it is bought to make money on it and not as a means of payment.

Moreover, at this time, there is a fairly large variety of other cryptocurrencies that have much greater growth potential than bitcoin. Therefore, some owners begin to get rid of the "cue ball" to fix a profit or invest the money received in Ethereum or Binance Coin. There is also a recent drop in the bitcoin dominance index, which also indirectly shows a greater interest of new investors in other tokens.

At the same time, the head of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, said that the bank's clients show a high interest in bitcoin, although he is skeptical about the first cryptocurrency in the world. However, according to Jamie Dimon, he does not tell the bank's customers what to do. If investors' interest is growing, then so be it. Dimon's earlier statements were tougher on the cue ball. According to the general manager of JP Morgan, he was ready to fire any employee of the bank for trading cryptocurrencies and compared bitcoin to "tulip fever." "My personal belief does not mean that I should impose my position on cryptocurrencies on clients," the head of the bank said.



The "cue ball" has already bounced four times from the 61.8% Fibonacci level in technical terms over the past six days. Thus, the further growth of "digital gold" is still in doubt for the time being. The fundamental background has improved slightly for bitcoin, so if the $ 58,000 level is overcome, the upward trend is likely to resume. However, the bulls do not need a fundamental background but an influx of new investors. Below the level of $ 58,000, there are still good chances of resuming the correction with a goal of about $ 47,000 per coin and below.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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ETH continues to gain momentum, altcoins are approaching important milestones: reasons and forecasts

The sixth month of 2021 began for the cryptocurrency market with conflicting indicators, which were exacerbated by talks about the introduction of taxes and tougher legal regulation. At the same time, the indicators of main assets continue to slowly but surely rise. Thanks to this, over the past day, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 4.5% and almost reached the $2.5 trillion mark.

ETH remains the main striking force of the cryptocurrency market, which continues to remain in high positions, suggesting the beginning of rapid growth. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has risen in price by 4% and returned to the previously set historical mark of $3,500. At the same time, the cryptocurrency continues to rise in price with powerful jumps, which are accompanied by an increase in the volume of daily trading. Ethereum positions are not in doubt and will soon continue to rise in price with interruptions for a local correction. Despite the recent pullback, the cryptocurrency regained its position in less than a day, which indicates significant market interest and support. The ether is at the forefront, and it is unlikely to experience problems until the next update. This is evidenced by the fact that the cryptocurrency practically does not react to negative news, entering the market. In the near future, we can expect the establishment of a new historical record by the main altcoin, which seized the lead from bitcoin.



The Ripple coin continues to recover its position. After the SEC's threats of legal proceedings for XRP investors, as well as statements about changes in interest rates in the United States, the cryptocurrency rose in price by 6.5% in 24 hours. The token is quoted around $1.64 and is approaching the important milestone of $1.7, where XRP may face market resistance. In the last few days, the asset shows low daily trading volumes, which indicates the lack of significant interest in cryptocurrency. The situation is similar for LTC, which continues to fluctuate in safe positions around $245-$260. The asset has no prerequisites for further growth, and recent announcements may even throw the cryptocurrency behind the usual indicators. In the current state of affairs of altcoins, there is nothing strange, given the real euphoria around ETH, which continues to develop and increase its audience.





On May 6, it became known that South Korea will introduce a 20% tax on profits from operations with cryptocurrencies. It is expected that this news will negatively affect the interest in assets in this region and will hit the quotes of crypto assets very hard today. In addition, the South Korean authorities have requested information from banks about bitcoin exchanges. The news that the US Internal Revenue Service will get access to the data of customers of the Kraken crypto exchange as part of the stricter regulation of cryptocurrencies did not add to optimism. Given the alarming situation around the cryptocurrency market, a significant price increase is not expected. In the near future, assets will continue to remain in safe positions without prerequisites for rapid growth.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Is Ethereum overheated?

While bitcoin continues to trade sideways without updating technical benchmarks, let's see what happens to the second cryptocurrency.

Over the past seven days, Ethereum has grown by 25% (for comparison, Bitcoin is only 5%). In early May, it updated its historical values, reaching $3,500 per coin.

This is not the first update of all-time highs for the second cryptocurrency. This process has been observed since the end of January, after the price of ETH/USD rose above the values of January 2018 ($1,370.60 per coin).

Against this background, analysts are beginning to pay attention to the possible overheating of this asset. Experts from Santiment note that after such a sharp increase, no less sharp sales are possible.

Overbought as a result of the hype is evidenced by the growth of activity in social networks and several stock market indicators. The level of social activity around the second cryptocurrency has reached all-time highs. This means that recently, in a short period of time, a large number of users have been interested in ethereum.

On May 3, when the price of Ethereum rose above $3,000 per coin, the daily increase in social activity updated the historical record and was higher than what was observed in 2017.

After reaching $3,500 per Ether, the average values of social mood indicators declined. According to Santiment analysts, this may mean a weakening of interest, as well as the formation of prerequisites for the beginning of a bearish scenario.

In favor of this opinion, an argument is made about the influx of more than 1 million ETH coins to crypto exchanges. This could be a sign of growing pressure from sellers. Moreover, the decline can start from the level of $3,500.

Further growth, according to Santiment experts, is possible only after the Ethereum overheating has passed. But judging by the recent Bitcoin rally, this is far from a fact.

No matter how further the fate of ETH/USD develops, the nearest targets and possible scenarios should be determined from the point of view of technical analysis. After such a long growth, the correction is quite probable, which means that it is necessary to move "with small jumps", taking away a small, but the most probable profit from the market.

On the ETH/USD chart, we see that the price has consolidated above the 161.8 level of the previous Fibo Expansion grid (green). This horizontal at 3,244.64 now acts as a support. And if it is broken, quotes can be adjusted up to the Fibo Expansion 100 level near $2,800 per coin. However, if the breakout takes place, the first target downward will be the $3,000 psychological mark.

If the downward correction is exhausted by the current consolidation, the next targets for growth should be determined using the new Fibo Expansion (purple levels). Now the 61.8 level is working as a current resistance, and if it is broken, the ETH/USD price may move further to the 100 level of the purple extension - this is about $3,800 per coin.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 7, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Cryptocurrency trust company NYDIG has reported that hundreds of U.S. banks are implementing bitcoin (BTC) services for their customers.

NYDIG, headquartered in New York, is a subsidiary of Stone Ridge, managing assets worth $ 10 billion. The company has partnered with the fintech giant Fidelity National Information Services to allow US banks to offer bitcoin to their customers.

According to Patrick Sells, head of banking at NYDIG, "hundreds" of banks are already working to increase their exposure to BTC. They are about to offer a digital currency to buy, sell, invest and trade.

"What we are doing is making it easier for everyday Americans and corporations to buy bitcoin through relationships with banks. If I use a mobile app for all my banking operations, now I have the ability to buy, sell and hold bitcoins, "Sells said.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps going higher and recently has bounced higher towards the level of $58,332, which is the short-term technical resistance for bulls and since then the market is consolidating the recent gains. The next target is seen at the level of $58,919 ( May 3rd high) and then at $60,000. The momentum remains positive, but is not that strong anymore, so please keep an eye on the level of $55,674, which is the technical support for the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $73,274
WR2 - $65,664
WR1 - $62,211

Weekly Pivot - $54,445
WS1 - $50,865
WS2 - $43,394
WS3 - $39,732


Trading Recommendations:

Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 7, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Visa and Tala have joined forces "to help emerging markets adapt to the crypto economy," Tala announced Wednesday.

Tala is "a financial technology company with a mission to enable and accelerate financial health for everyone," reads its website. The company's Android app offers instant credit and personalized financial education, the company noted, adding that it has provided over $ 2 billion in loan to over 6 million customers in Mexico, the Philippines, Kenya and India.

Circle and the Stellar Development Foundation have also joined the project and will benefit from the digital currency ecosystem in emerging markets, the announcement said.

"Tala will explore options to make it easier for consumers to store and use cryptocurrencies, starting with USDC, a stablecoin managed by the Center Consortium," the company added.

The company explained that by integrating Tal with Circle and Stellar, its customers will have access to USDC in Tala's digital wallet, allowing for safe and stable money storage, fast and inexpensive cross-border transfers, and easy exchange for other digital assets or local fiat.

Moreover, Tali's partnership with Visa will enable it to offer Visa cards linked to Tali's digital wallet. This will allow customers to spend funds without problems.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made another marginal all time high at the level of $3,590, but the rally from the level of $2,955 has ended with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern again, which might indicate a potential pull-back or even a correction. Please notice the WR2 is located at $3,563 and WR3 at the level of $4,152 (targets for bulls). The immediate technical support is located at the level of $3,184, but if this level is violated, then the next technical support is seen at $2,955. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are now extremely overbought, so a correction is welcome. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,152
WR2 - $3,563
WR1 - $3,343

Weekly Pivot - $2,736
WS1 - $2,538
WS2 - $1,587
WS3 - $1,750


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $4,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,550, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Retests The Buyers!

Bitcoin decreased again trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. The bias is bullish, so BTC/USD could resume its growth soon after it ends its current decline.

The price has come back down to test and retest the immediate support levels before starting a new upside momentum. Bitcoin could move sideways in the short term before more buyers will step into the game.


BTC/USD TEMPORARY DECLINE!



BTC/USD has found resistance above 56,873 and now is retesting the upside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork. The bias remains bullish as long as the price stays above the immediate black uptrend line.

It could retest the weekly pivot (54,679) before developing a new leg higher. The uptrend line retest could signal further growth as well.


BITCOIN FORECAST!

Coming back above 56,873 is seen as a new long opportunity with an upside target at the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 06, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has raised through $5800/500 levels today and might be testing its recent swing highs around $59000 mark before turning lower again. Since sub $65000 levels, the crypto has carved the first leg of a corrective drop towards $47000, followed by the second leg towards $59000 respectively. It is quite possible that bulls push through $60000 before giving into bears, going forward.

Bottom line remains $65000 mark for the above bearish structure to remain intact. Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $58000 levels at this point in writing and is expected to resume its 3rd leg lower towards $43000 and $41000 levels respectively. Immediate resistance is at $65000 mark, while support comes in around $53000 levels respectively. A drop below $53000 would be encouraging to bears and it would accelerate further.

Bitcoin is holding its one year strong uptrend and there are no signs of a bearish reversal yet. We are proposing a corrective drop towards $41000 levels, which is also the fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3850 and $65000 levels respectively. Expect the rally to resume thereafter and push above $65000 levels.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 65000, target @ 43000 and @41000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju: the outflow of bitcoin from cryptocurrency exchanges begins



In the last few weeks, bitcoin has made a lot of traders and investors nervous. This is possibly because of psychology. Half of the world treats bitcoin as an asset that is constantly growing in price, so if it does not increase in price, then something abnormal is probably happening. Now, unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin has not been able to update its highs since mid-April, and the market is already in some kind of panic. A statement such as: "the pound has not updated its highs against the dollar for 3 weeks!" or "Microsoft shares have not increased in price for a whole month!" is indeed absurd. However, for the cryptocurrency market, especially now that money in the United States is increasing every month, this statement fully reflects the reality. Yesterday, bitcoin failed to overcome the level of $58,000 per coin again. We have repeatedly talked about this level, which is nothing more than the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Thus, it has a certain power. Until this level is overcome, the correction scenario for the first cryptocurrency in the world remains more relevant. We continue to expect the "digital gold" to fall at least to the level of $47,000 per coin.

The fundamental background for bitcoin leaves much to be desired recently. It seems that the globalization and popularization of bitcoin continues to gain momentum, but at the same time all the positive news is crushed by the fact no asset can grow constantly in price. Recent data suggests that more and more investors are paying attention to alternative coins, which leads to an outflow of capital from bitcoin, and to a banal loss of new investments. Investors began to be interested in those cryptocurrencies that have not yet been promoted as bitcoin, and therefore have a higher growth potential. Ergo, from our point of view, BTC will continue to fall.

However, it should also be noted that the hit parade of forecasts on the cost of bitcoin continues. For example, the head of the analytical company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, said that bitcoin will rush up again in the near future. The CEO came to this conclusion after studying data from cryptocurrency exchanges, which indicate that the outflow of bitcoin has begun. Simply put, there are fewer offers to sell bitcoin coins on the exchanges. Hence, the supply decreases. If at the same time the demand does not fall, then the bitcoin exchange rate should grow. However, demand is a very complex thing and it is also very difficult to calculate it. Moreover, the demand for bitcoin seems to be falling right now. Thus, it seems that in general, bitcoin is beginning to lose its leading position in favor of ethereum or binance coin. One way or another, many crypto experts still continue to wait for a new round of strengthening of "digital gold".



In technical terms, bitcoin has bounced off the level of 61.8% on the Fibonacci four times already and is now heading down again. Thus, the further growth of "digital gold" is still in doubt. The fundamental background seems to have improved slightly for bitcoin, but the cryptocurrency has not managed to extract any special dividends from this. If the $58,000 level is overcome, the upward trend is likely to resume. However, the chances of a corrective fall remain high.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ripple XRP, for May 07 - 10, 2021: Buy above $1,6277



Despite the ongoing legal battle with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, Ripple XRP reported a 97% increase in XRP sales for the first quarter of 2021.

XRP (Ripple) released its first quarter 2021 markets report on May 6 and revealed that total sales net of purchases had gone from $ 76.27 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 to $ 150.34 million in the first quarter of this year.

From its low at 0.26, Ripple has grown to the current level of 1.65. This is a big increase, greater than BTC, undoubtedly the optimism for this cryptocurrency, is still strongly bullish.

Therefore, on the technical level, we note that XRP is located in 4-hour charts above the SMA of 21 and the EMA of 200. This is a sign that there could be an upward movement of XRP in the next few days.

In addition, XRP is located above the pivot point of 4/8 murray. This level is the key to expect a price increase in XRP, because above this level we expect the upward movement to continue to the 1.75 and 1.95 area.

The technical reading of the eagle indicator shows that there is still bullish force, and in the short term it could go to challenge the 1.95 area and rise to 2.50. Our recommendation is to buy Ripple as long as it remains above the 200 EMA and above 4/8 of a murray.


Support And Resistance Levels For May 07 - 10, 2021

Resistance (1) 1.7296
Resistance (2) 1.8537
Resistance (3) 1.9765

Support (1) 1.4825
Support (2) 1.3648
Support (3) 1.2354





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021