Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is ready for the next rally; what does network data say?


The situation on the Bitcoin chart looks very good so far. The support level of 55,842.84 has held out so far, and today a rebound is expected from it. It is possible that BTCUSD may move to consolidation in the range 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 before the next impulse. Meanwhile, fundamentally, the situation also looks encouraging.


SIGNS OF ACCUMULATION IN THE MARKET

Despite the fall in the price of the main cryptocurrency, the fundamentals on the network point to signs of serious strength and accumulation, according to Glassnode.

Thus, the number of Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance reached a new record level - 38.76 million addresses. The previous high of 38.7 million was set seven months ago, on April 23. It took the market 213 days to recover to these values.

In parallel, the network data provider Santiment reports that, despite the decline in the main cryptocurrency, the supply of Bitcoins is leaving crypto exchanges, which reduces the risks of a sell-off. In addition, the supply of USDT on the exchanges is increasing, which indicates a high purchasing power.


IS PROFIT TAKING COMPLETED?

As noted earlier, the current decline in the cryptocurrency market was mainly driven by profit-taking, especially after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high.

During the recent correction, Bitcoin short-term holders were selling, taking profits at highs, and capitulating at lows, according to Glassnode. Supply fell by 15%, and now the main cryptocurrency is in the transition zone from bulls to bears.

In addition, Glassnode adds that short-term holders are the most responsive to price changes. Their sensitivity stems from a combination of high relative value, higher time preference, and potentially lower confidence in the asset. Price action this week was no exception as short-term players played a role in setting both highs and lows.

All network indicators suggest that the BTC price is ready for the next rally. So this could be a good buying opportunity for now.


LONG-TERM TARGET OF $250,000 PER BITCOIN: WHY IS IT JUSTIFIED?

Thus, we have the prerequisites for the future growth of Bitcoin and technically three short-term scenarios. The first is a sideways consolidation at 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 before the breakout, the second is a recovery above $60,000 per coin and continued growth. Finally, the least optimistic is the deepening of the correction towards $52,000 per coin before the price returns to the increase.

While we are waiting for things to calm down, let's look at the situation globally from the point of view of targets. There is not much left to the popular expected value of $100,000 per coin. For the next target, some analysts, including Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek, see $250,000.

Where did this figure come from? The expert said that this is not just a target out of thin air, but the monetary value of the gold equivalent of Bitcoin.

Yusko stated that the total market capitalization of gold is about $10 trillion. While jewelry and other industrial uses account for about half of that amount, the other half is the monetary value of the shiny metal.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin will "easily" reach the gold equivalence point within four years, which would translate into about a quarter of a million dollars per coin.








Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis for BTC/USD on November 23, 2021




Let's analyze the situation of the BTC/USD pair by using the classic Elliott wave analysis.

The current structure of the BTC/USD pair assumes the development of the initial part of a new bearish corrective trend. The development of this trend began after the completion of the bullish impulse wave (A).

As part of a new downward trend, which is assumed to have a standard zigzag form, the first impulse wave (A) is now being formed.

Wave (A) consists of five sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5, where the first four sub-waves are already fully completed. The final sub-wave 5 is currently in the process of construction. It is possible that it will take the form of a finite diagonal, since its fourth wave has gone beyond the end of the first wave.

The BTCUSD rate is expected to continue falling towards the level of 54690.00 in the near future. After reaching this level, a market reversal and the beginning of a bullish movement are possible.


Trading recommendations:
It is recommended to sell from the current level and take profit at 54690.00.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 23, 2021


Crypto Industry News:

El Salvador continues to lead in Bitcoin adoption, while President Nayib Bukele announced the launch of Bitcoin City, which will be initially financed with 1 billion Bitcoin bonds. Dollars.

The initiative was first announced by Bukele at the Bitcoin Week conference in El Salvador to celebrate Bitcoin's adoption in the country and increase citizen participation.

Well-known cryptocurrency companies, including cryptocurrency exchanges, will be actively involved in the development of Bitcoin City by launching a securities platform for storing Bitcoin bonds.

The president predicts Bitcoin City will become a fully functional city with residential areas, shopping malls, restaurants, a port, "everything around Bitcoin". What's more, residents are only subject to VAT, which, according to Bukele, will be used to pay for the municipality's bonds and for public infrastructure and city maintenance.

At the conference, Blockstream security director Samson Mao explained the feasibility of acquiring 1 billion Bitcoin bonds. Dollars and that Bitcoin bonds worth 500 million. US dollars will be subject to a five-year lock-in period, which will effectively eliminate invested capital from global circulation.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair is testing the bottom of the wave 3 again, which is located at the level of $55,758. The momentum remains weak and negative despite the potential low of the wave 3/C, so any violation of the level of $55,785 would extend the correction towards the level of $55,747 or below. Only a sustained breakout above the level of $62,767 would change the outlook to more bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $75,582
WR2 - $70,896
WR1 - $64,654

Weekly Pivot - $60,209
WS1 - $54,112
WS2 - $49,298
WS3 - $43,190


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).









Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 23, 2021


Ethereum approaching the last swing low

Crypto Industry News:

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) plans to levy fees on digital ruble transactions, revealed Kirill Pronin, director of the Financial Technology Department of the regulator. The official stressed that these commissions will be lower than the current fees for transfers in the banking sector.

Speaking on the forum under the slogan "Russia's banking system: ensuring the availability of services and resources in the face of increasing risk," Pronin further noted that fees would certainly not exceed the cost of transfers using the Russian Faster Payment System (FPS).

"We assume that the fees for digital ruble transactions will be lower than the current transfer fees for market participants and definitely not higher than the FPS fees," he said.

Russia launched its Faster Payment System in January 2019. It allows Russian residents to send money using only a phone number and pay for goods and services using a QR code. Transfers up to 100,000 rubles a month (about $ 1,350) are free. For transfers exceeding this amount, a 0.5% fee is charged, but no more than 1,500 rubles (approximately $ 20).


Technical Market Outlook

The ETH/USD pair is approaching the swing low seen at the level of $3,954. The market conditions on the H4 time frame chart are coming off the overbought conditions, so a deeper down move might occur, targeting the level of $4,021. Any violation of this level would accelerate the down move towards the key short-term technical support seen at $3,954. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains up and there is no indication of the trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,566
WR2 - $5,159
WR1 - $4,752

Weekly Pivot - $4,357
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,564
WS3 - $3,134


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin demand will soar amid high inflation

Demand for crypto is expected to continue despite the recent correction in the market. This is because investors use Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, so they will most likely strive to keep it on their balance sheets. After all, inflation may spike over the holidays amid continued supply chain disruptions.



On a different note, US President Joe Biden is announcing his decision on who will take the post of Fed chief. This could have implications for crypto regulation and monetary policy, although some experts said that the two main candidates - Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard - have similar political positions. The choice may not really matter to the economy in the medium and long term.

Going back to the topic of inflation, it is not surprising that an increasing number of fund managers and institutional investors are now choosing Bitcoin over gold. They see cryptocurrency as the best store of value and the best defense against inflation.

"I still think gold was probably an okay asset to own in this environment," said Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO Mike Novogratz. "It's just gotten crushed by Bitcoin," he explained.

At the same time, Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci declared that he expects Bitcoin to outperform gold. He projected that the coin's price will reach $ 500,000, so investors should look at crypto assets right now.

Well-known fund manager Paul Tudor Jones also revealed that he prefers Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

JPMorgan analysts said the same last October, that institutional investors are selling gold and buying bitcoins because they see the token as a better inflation hedge than the metal.

Goldman Sachs also noted that funds are shifting from gold to Bitcoin.

These changes are likely to lead to the further rise of Bitcoin, especially since more than 200 people from all over the world are investing in the cryptocurrency This is a sign that the industry is developing more and more.



El Salvador President Nayib Bukele recently announced that they are planning to issue the world's first sovereign Bitcoin bonds and build a free zone called Bitcoin City that will be free of income, property and capital gains taxes. They will issue a tokenized 10-year USD denominated bond with a 6.5% payout through the Liquid Network. It is expected that half of the proceeds will be converted into bitcoins, and the other half will be used for infrastructure and mining of bitcoins based on geothermal energy. Then, after the 5-year period expires, the government will start selling its bitcoins and paying additional dividends to investors. And since Bitcoin is expected to soar, the annual percentage rate is projected to reach 146% at the end of the program.



But for now, a lot depends on $ 60,000 because rising above it will lead to a further increase to $ 64,000. Meanwhile, a drop to $ 56,400 will bring Bitcoin down to $ 53,600 and $ 50,900.



As for Ethereum, a lot depends on $ 4,360 because a breakout will result in a rise to $ 4,578. Meanwhile, a fall to $ 4,110 will provoke a decrease to $ 3,885 and $ 3,682.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH on edge of bullish rally. What may push altcoin higher?

The main altcoin closed the previous trading week in the green, jumping above $4.3K. However, later, the price resumed falling. On November 22, it was trading around $4.2K. Although the digital coin is losing value, its on-chain indicators are still quite high and buyers are ready to move towards all-time highs. To prove the intention to rise, ether should resume climbing and end the correction.

Last week, the altcoin dropped to $4K, broke this level, and immediately recovered. The price failed to hit the final correctional target at $3.6K. Bulls started pushing the price higher towards its new peaks. To stop the correction, ether should consolidate above $4.3K. It is an important level that is considered a point where the price may start its new rally.

First of all, a strong support level is located at $4.3K. This could be an important psychological factor for investors. Secondly, there are other important levels near $4.3K that prove strong potential for a jump. The 0.236 Fibonacci level is also located near $4.3K that intensifies the support level and provides buy signals. If the price consolidates above $4.3K, the level of 50-day EMA will be intact. All these facts prove that the market is ready for a new rally, if the price consolidates above $4.3K.



On the four-hour chart, there are prerequisites that ETH will be able to consolidate at the mentioned level. Thus, sellers failed to push the price lower and form the Bearish Engulfing pattern. It means that ether does not have any reasons to continue falling. Notably, last week, the price more than once tested the resistance level of $4.3K. It is expected to break the level and consolidate above it. Technical indicators also are reflecting bullish sentiment. The stochastic oscillator and MACD have formed a bullish crossing, thus pointing to a large-scale jump if the price fixes above $4.3K. The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, displaying the mounting demand for ETH.





At the moment, there are all the reasons to say that the altcoin will manage to consolidate above $4.3K and resume the uptrend. In this case, a local resistance level will be located at $4,672. Breaking this level, the price will move towards an absolute high and will try to renew it. In case of a successful bullish rally, the price peak is located at $6.6K. If the price fails to rise, it is likely to slide to the range of $4.1K-$4.25K and drop even deeper to $4K. The asset may even break the level of $4K to decline to $3.6K-$3.8K.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Whales keep ditching Shiba Inu token (SHIB), moving to resilient stablecoins



Now you can observe a correction in the crypto market, which concerns not only bitcoin, but also the entire altcoin market. This correction concerns both ordinary speculators and whales, who lose up to 10% of their income with a local correction.

During such situations, institutions diversify their portfolios and abandon their memcoins and altcoins, moving to bitcoin, Ether, or stablecoins to protect themselves from inflation and reduce the risks of losing a financial asset.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) now reaches 18% of the total number of the largest Ethereum wallets in the ERC20 network before the correction, this number was 22%, and in a short period of time, this number of wallets decreased by 4%.

Whales who own Shiba Inu (SHIB) continue to get rid of their tokens and stock up on various altcoins, such as Chainlink, Paragon, and Solana.

Also, more than 7% of whales' funds go to Tether (USDT) to take profits and insure against long-term corrections.

The most popular memecoin Shiba Inu (SHIB) lost almost 50% of its value in a month due to panic, sales, manipulation of whales.

Over the past day, the Shiba Inu token (SHIB) has grown by 2%, however, during the correction, the whales will continue to manipulate the market, get rid of their tokens, switching to stable stablecoins.

However, crypto enthusiasts believe that Shiba Inu (SHIB) has long been not a memecoin, but a stable cryptocurrency. Their own proprietary Shibarium blockchain should appear soon, as well as listing on various popular crypto exchanges. Token fans believe that whales are simply manipulating the market and sowing panic.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: is downward correction over?

Bitcoin dropped in the last hours and now it's trading at 57,388 level. As you already know, BTC/USD was into a corrective phase after reaching a fresh all-time high of 69,000. In the short term, the selling pressure is still high, further drop is still in cards. Despite its temporary rebound, the price of bitcoin could extend its drop if it fails to stay above the near-term support levels.

In the last 7 days, BTC/USD is down by 10.99%, while in the last 24 hours, the crypto dropped by 4.68%.


BTC/USD BEARISH PRESSURE!



BTC/USD is about to reach the 56,425 low which stands as a potential downside target. As you can see, the price has found resistance at 59,953.74 - 58,933 area and now it looks very heavy.

The descending pitchfork's median line (ml) and the 55,640 are seen as critical support levels. It could test and retest these levels before trying to develop a new leg higher. Only a new lower low could activate a larger downside movement.


BTC/USD PREDICTION!

Staying above 56,425 - 55,640 support zone and making a bullish pattern could signal a new swing higher. Actually, a new upwards movement could be activated by a new higher high, if the price jumps and closes above 60,090 previous high.

On the other hand, dropping and closing below 55,640 could open the door for a larger corrective phase.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: what will price drop and decreasing level of BTC dominance result in?

Bitcoin has lost over $150 billion in a week, roughly 15% of its recent high of $68,700 set on November 10. But this is not the only loss. In addition to falling prices, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has dropped sharply over the past week.

Despite this, Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency. But the current dominance rate of 41.9% is lower than the 48% level on October 20, 2021.


FALLING PRICE AND BTC DOMINANCE: WHAT'S THE MATTER?

According to experts, altcoins are now valued as more stable assets. In addition, they are cheaper and in demand among investors, reducing the dominance of Bitcoin.

Some of the notable coins such as Binance Coin, XRP, and Solana have dropped less than Bitcoin in the recent correction.

But the fall in price is still assessed as a correction against the background of profit-taking after reaching historic highs.


BITCOIN'S CURRENT TARGETS: IS IT WORTH WORRYING ABOUT?

Bitcoin bounced off the support at 55,842.84 so briskly on Friday, forming a long lower shadow that one even wanted to believe in a further rise in the price. But hopes were not justified. No less technically, Bitcoin is now bouncing down from the mirror level of 59,283.67. In fact, the strong psychological boundary of $60,000 per coin is confirmed as resistance.

This creates the preconditions for two possible scenarios. The first is a decline to the level of 55,842.84 and its breakdown. In this case, the next target for the downside will be at $52,000 per Bitcoin.

The second scenario is a sideways recovery at 55,842.84 - 59,283.67, if its support holds.


CRYPTOCURRENCY IS NOT A FLEETING "WHIM" AND WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE

Since everything is clear with the short-term outlook and price benchmarks for Bitcoin and we can only wait, I propose to digress into the long-term prospects. There is optimistic news here or at least opinions.

Australia's Financial Services Minister Jane Hume has publicly spoken out in favor of cryptocurrency. She stated that it was not a passing "whim."

In her speech at the Australian Financial Review summit on Monday, Hume criticized the growing fear of crypto in the government, saying it "won't disappear anytime soon" despite the government's stance.

As a government official, she advocated caution in this area but cautioned against being overly afraid of cryptocurrencies. According to Hume, this technology is similar to other technological breakthroughs like the iPhone. This means that any opposition to digital assets today can be compared to opposition to technologies such as the iPhone or the Internet.

In her speech, Hume highlighted the incredible opportunities that decentralized finance, backed by blockchain technology, provides. She also warned that excessive fear of this new technology could lead to Australia being left behind in the crypto race and the global financial revolution.

Well, such conversations are already good. And although they are unlikely to have an impact on the market locally, in the long term they create the preconditions for widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies and the growth of demand for them.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Tips for beginners: where are key Bitcoin zones and how to use them during a correction?

Bitcoin starts the new trading week with a positive rebound to the middle of the current fluctuation range. This is positive news, indicating strong support for the asset in the $55k-$60k region. At the same time, there is every reason to believe that the market correction will continue and the cryptocurrency will fall even lower before starting an upward movement to new highs.

With this in mind, it is extremely important to identify the existing corridors in the current area of price movement in order to trade the coin during the correction.

One of the most convenient tools for determining the main support and resistance levels is the Fibonacci level system, which can be drawn on any horizontal chart of a cryptocurrency and other financial instruments. The boundaries of this instrument should be defined as the beginning and end of an impulse movement (upward / downward).

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC price actively reacts to Fibo levels and moves from one line to another. The chart shows that before the rebound, the price broke through the Fibo level of 1.5, after which it began to recover and reached the $57k mark.

This suggests that the Fibo level of 1.5 is a strong support zone, and therefore, when trading here, it is worth setting take-take when playing on a decline, since, most likely, it is in this area that the price will rebound.

* Learn and analyze

Price consolidation is the period when a certain cryptocurrency is within a narrow horizontal price channel. Usually, this process indicates price stabilization or weakness of market participants (buyers and sellers).

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator that allows you to determine the strength of a trend (downward or upward), warns of possible changes in the direction of price movement. Thanks to this metric, it is possible to determine in what stage the asset is - overbought or underbought. The optimal mark for this chart is 60 for a bullish trend. It indicates strong demand for the coin and the strength of the current upward momentum. Upon crossing this mark, the coin begins to move towards overbought.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence Index) is an indicator that allows you to draw certain conclusions about the trend based on the movement of moving averages and finding the metric values between them. A common bullish signal is the intersection of the white line below the red and bearish, on the contrary, when the white line crosses the red from above, which indicates a downward movement.

Stochastic (Stochastic Oscillator) indicates the strength of the momentum of the current prevailing trend. If the indicator is above 80, then the asset can be considered overbought, but if the stochastic is below 20, then this is a signal that the asset is oversold.

Fibonacci levels are a technical analysis tool used in the form of levels to which the price of an asset reacts. Used to determine price movement ranges and support/resistance zones.

As of 13:30 UTC, prerequisites for the upward movement of Bitcoin are visible, as evidenced by the growing technical indicators.

MACD and Stochastic Oscillator have formed a bullish crossover and are starting an upward movement, which indicates an attempt by buyers to consolidate their positions and push the price even higher. At the same time, the relative strength index also began to grow, confirming the increased interest of buyers in the asset.

The closest target for the price will be $59.6k. It was there that the upward impulse stopped and the price began to decline. Now, this zone is playing the role of resistance, but if it is successfully broken, a strong local support zone will form there. This is where the 50-day exponential moving average passes as well as the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

The successful breakout of the said level will move the price to the $62.5k-$63k area, where there is a strong trend resistance and the 0.5 Fibo level. Most likely, a price reversal will occur here and for some time the asset will move in a given range between two correction structures.

Next, you need to look at the market, but since BTC has not worked out the $52k- $55.5k range, the probability of a correction increases.



The nearest medium-term target for trading is below $55k, where the market should buy more before starting a full-fledged bullish rally to new highs.

In the shorter term, the main target will be the $62.5k-$63k area, where the impulse movement should reverse towards $53k.

When trading within this range and tracking price movement trends, it is necessary to pay sufficient attention to support zones as optimal levels for placing safety orders such as stop losses and take profits, since quotes tend not to break through zones on the first try.


In such cases, it is extremely important to protect yourself from unexpected bounces and the influence of news factors. However, the next week will be characterized by price movement within the $57k-$62k range and further decline beyond the $55.5k area.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021