Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
In an interview with TV, Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan," spoke about his views on Bitcoin and how to hedge against risks in the current turbulent market.

He was asked about crypto assets with a focus on BTC given that an increasing number of investors are restructuring their portfolios with a new asset class.

Taleb criticized Bitcoin, describing it as a trick that is too volatile to be an effective currency rather than a safe hedge against inflation:

"There is basically no relationship between inflation and Bitcoin. None. I mean, hyperinflation and BTC are going to zero. There is no relationship between them."

He also believes that Bitcoin has the characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. He stated that Bitcoin is:

"(...) a beautifully configured crypto system that is well made but has absolutely no reason to be tied to anything economic."

Taleb once had a positive opinion about a leading cryptocurrency. However, he told CNBC that he was initially fooled into believing that Bitcoin could be used as a currency. But when he saw that the price of the cryptocurrency was very volatile and investors used it as a speculation tool, he started selling his Bitcoin, calling it a failed currency.

Taleb advises investors looking to hedge against inflation to buy a piece of land and invest in it. He also said that investors who are concerned about inflation are better off buying real estate than investing in Bitcoin. In February, the former analyst and trader announced that he is in the process of getting rid of his BTC. He considers it a failure due to the fact that the crypto asset does not hold value. He also said that Bitcoin has failed as a hedge against central bank policy.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced strongly from the recent low made at the level of $47,060 after the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. The bulls has managed to bounce through the level of $52,039, which is the technical resistance for the price and now are trying to make another higher high at the level of $53,290. The momentum is currently neutral and any breakout into the positive territory might extend the bounce to the level of $57,330.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $62,642
WR2 - $60,057
WR1 - $52,987

Weekly Pivot - $50,187
WS1 - $42,706
WS2 - $40,371
WS3 - $33,169


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Seville is rapidly becoming a cryptocurrency-friendly city in Spain, with two famous local hotels announcing that they will start accepting crypto payments. Hotel Becquer and Hotel Kivir have joined the cryptocurrency adoption trend by allowing customers to book rooms using digital resources.

According to Diario de Sevilla, both hotels have signed a partnership agreement with the national Criptan exchange to make the crypto gateway available to their customers. Becquer is a 134-room hotel situated on the former site of the Marquesas Las Torres, and the 31-room Kivir hotel is located in the old town.

Thanks to the cooperation of both four-star hotels with the stock exchange, Criptan has increased its portfolio of retail stores and even travel companies across Spain, which currently accept cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as a means of payment.

Under the agreement, Criptan will process crypto payments, but both hotels will receive 100% of the money in Euros.

Criptan officials told Diario de Sevilla that such integration in hotels such as Becquer and Kivir is in line with the European PSD2 regulation on electronic payment services, which aims to "increase security in Europe, promote innovation and foster the adaptation of banking services to new technology. "

As Seville becomes even more familiar with the cryptocurrency, the media reported in December that the municipality of Seville has launched its own cryptocurrency, aimed at encouraging residents and merchants to trade with it.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the lows located at the level of $2,201 and is currently trading around the level of $2,500 again. Any violation of this level will lead to another wave up towards the recent high located at the level of $2,639. The immediate technical support is located at $2,377. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,085
WR2 - $2,863
WR1 - $2,509

Weekly Pivot - $2,289
WS1 - $1,926
WS2 - $1,691
WS3 - $1,326


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $3,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,000, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin starts the week with an increase of $5,000



Bitcoin continued to correct on both weekends, and also fell by a rather impressive $2900 on Sunday. But at night, with the beginning of Monday, the bitcoin quotes sharply turned up and increased by $5,000 within a few hours. Thus, there is a high probability that pending buy orders were triggered near the $48,000 level, or that a whole group of traders and investors simultaneously started buying bitcoin with renewed vigor during the night. As we have repeatedly said, the rise or fall of $5,000 for bitcoin is uninteresting. Despite the fact that this growth has already occurred, the correction scenario remains in force. The bulls made a powerful attempt to return the asset to growth. But recall that back in 2014 and 2018, when bitcoin started long downward trends after updating its highs, there were also such attempts to maintain the bullish trend. Roughly speaking, even a downward correction movement cannot take place without upward pullbacks. And over the past 10 days, bitcoin has fallen by $15,000. Therefore, a pullback up to $5,000 is normal, and the only surprising thing is that it happened unexpectedly.

The fundamental background for Bitcoin remains the same. There were no high-profile news or incidents over the weekend. Thus, it is not even possible to conclude that the growth of the first cryptocurrency was provoked by some events. The background remains negative, and most experts continue to expect a decline in quotes in the area of $30-40 thousand. However, keep in mind that the market is composed of buyers and sellers, not experts and analysts. Simply put, if the purchases of the bitcoin resume, even without any fundamental reasons, then the "digital gold" will continue to grow. Although, we believe that the upward trend should end. Here, another important global factor should be noted: the US economy continues to recover, and the demand for bitcoin as an anti-crisis tool may decrease over time. Although, on the other hand, the American economy continues to pump trillions of dollars, and this money needs to be spent, and the cryptocurrency market is one of the possible options for investing money that was like thrown off a helicopter.



In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be below the critical line and below the Ichimoku cloud. The support level of $50,770 was successfully overcome this weekend, but on Monday a strong growth began and now we will need to see where today ends. Below the critical line, the bearish mood persists. Also, sellers need to more confidently gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud in order to count on a further fall.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical analysis of Litecoin/USD for April 26, 2021



The decline from 335.79 has been larger than expected and could move closer to support at 197 before the next impulsive rally higher to 335.79 and above. A direct break above resistance at 253 will indicate that the corrective decline from 335.79 has already been completed and the next impulsive rally to 335.79 and above is in motion.


Trading recommendation:

Buy Litecoin near 179 or upon a break above 253 for the next rally to 335.79 and above.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical analysis of Ripple for April 26, 2021



Ripple has seen a larger than expected decline from 1.9670 and could move closer to strong support near 0.7765 as long as resistance at 1.1775 is able to cap the upside. A break above resistance at 1.1775 will indicate a corrective low being in place, while a break above resistance at 1.4200 confirms the corrective low. If so, the next impulsive rally to 1.9670- 2.7500 and possibly closer to 3.3180 may occur.


Trading recommendation:

Buy Ripple near 0.7765 or upon a break above resistance at 1.1775 for a rally towards 2.7500.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin will not be turned off or banned, but this does not guarantee "digital gold" eternal growth



Over the past few years, there has been a popular belief that bitcoin interferes with almost any government and central bank. In principle, this is true since bitcoin is an anonymous payment system. Thus, it can be used to conduct illegal operations, finance terrorism, and launder money. It is almost impossible to track transactions and identify the sender and recipient. However, we should also not forget that the government itself can finance illegal actions or various intelligence or espionage operations and pay for participation in military conflicts. Naturally, all these expenses will not be shown in the official reports or do not have to be there. Thus, with the help of the same bitcoin, governments themselves can take part in various secret operations that cannot be financed from the official budget. Of course, there are always various private funds, but it just became much easier and more convenient to finance such things with the advent of bitcoin. Thus, the governments of the largest countries in the world are hardly interested in the excessive development of the cryptocurrency segment. Still, at the same time, they are not interested in its complete ban. Also, do not forget that the concepts of politics and the financial segment in many countries are connected in a sea knot. Investors, billionaires, and business people have an influence on the political sphere through the process of lobbying for specific laws and initiatives. And since the interest among large investors and institutions in bitcoin has grown significantly over the past year, it is unlikely that these people will allow you to block the entire network, which is theoretically possible. It is also noted that about 80% of all mining capacity is now located in the United States, China, Russia, and Iran.

Except for Iran, as we can see, "all the same in the arena". It is unlikely that these states will allow you to disable the network of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Thus, the ban on the use of cryptocurrency in Turkey and possible similar actions of the Indian authorities are unlikely to change anything much for bitcoin in global terms. Moreover, with the current level of technology development, you can mine bitcoin from anywhere, even remotely. Bitcoin was banned in Turkey, but it can be safely mined in a neighboring country without even visiting it by renting the appropriate equipment. You can not store bitcoin in India. No problem, virtual wallets can be located in any country where bitcoin is not prohibited. Therefore, either all countries of the world should simultaneously ban the "cue ball", which is unlikely to happen, or it will be tightly controlled (perhaps over time) but will be allowed to live.



Let's take a look at the hourly timeframe, which we have already given in recent articles. There is a clear downward trend line here, which shows that the downward trend has already formed and is currently continuing. This weekend, the quotes are trading in a very narrow range for themselves $ 48,700 - $ 51,000. And sellers still need to keep the "digital gold" below the approximately $ 56,500 level, which is very far away.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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What awaits Bitcoin next week?



The first cryptocurrency ended yesterday in positive territory. The quotes gained about $ 350, but today the fall has resumed. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to go far down. In general, the correction scenario of the development of events is fully preserved. We have repeatedly said that the upward trend in recent weeks has dried up, the "bullish" mood has weakened. In the weakly updated peaks, the value of the cryptocurrency was seen. Thus, a correction was brewing.

Moreover, no asset in the world can grow constantly. In general, nothing extraordinary is happening right now. But since bitcoin has again become a hype topic over the past year, a 20% drop is perceived as if the US stock market has fallen by 20%. These are incommensurable concepts. It should be remembered that for bitcoin to pass 5-10 thousand dollars in a day is not such a rare phenomenon. Thus, at this time, the cryptocurrency is being adjusted. The question is, to what values can the decline occur and whether a new downward trend is beginning now, which will last for the next 2-3 years?

Many experts now insist that the upward trend is not broken. Most believe that even if the bitcoin price drops to the value of $ 40,000 per coin, this will not mean the end of the trend. Many believe that the market has overheated, and blind faith in the eternal growth of the cryptocurrency has played a cruel joke with many buyers of credit funds. From our point of view, bitcoin can fall to 44-40 thousand dollars per coin. So far, the current correction doesn't even look strong. The illustration below shows at least three proportional corrections. Recall that the current upward trend started at $ 4,000 per coin.

Thus, the total increase in the value of "digital gold" was 1500%. And now the price has adjusted by 20%. Therefore, a further decline in quotes is almost guaranteed, but at the levels of 35-40 thousand dollars per coin, very interesting events will develop. Recall that in the States, they want to increase the tax on capital gains for the rich to almost 50%. Thus, large investors can begin to redistribute their financial flows, and bitcoin can become the tool from which the outflow of investments will begin. Of course, this is only a guess since no one knows how people who own millions and billions of dollars will behave. However, such a scenario is possible. The main question is whether the high demand among large investors and institutions will continue if bitcoin drops to 35-40 thousand dollars per coin?

On the one hand, such levels will be very attractive for new purchases. On the other hand, bitcoin has already lost at least twice its history to 80-90% of the previous upward trend. Then there were "attractive levels" for new purchases. However, the fall almost completely covered the entire last movement.



In technical terms, the "cue ball" continues to be below the critical line and in the near future may gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line. It is already clear that the support level of $ 50,770 will be overcome, although there has been no clear overcoming over the past two days. Thus, the chances of a further decline in bitcoin in the area of $ 43,850 remain high. Now we can talk not just about a downward correction but about a new long-term downward trend.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The increase in taxes in the US can stop the upward trend of bitcoin for many years



Over the past day, nothing extraordinary has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin tried to continue its downward movement but quickly pulled back from local lows around $ 47,500. However, it is not necessary to conclude the completion of the correction after one day. The fall of even such an instrument as bitcoin to the level of $ 20,000 - $ 30,000 can take a year or even two. Although the volatility of cryptocurrency remains very high, it is still not a quick process. It should only be remembered that bitcoin has already lost $ 15,000 in value over the past ten days. And this is a lot. We believe that the decline will continue in the long term. At least, at the moment, there are no prerequisites for the correction to end. The "technique" shows that a correction is more likely. The "foundation" is not on the side of the "cue ball" now. On Friday, it became known about another news that clearly will not increase investors' demand for bitcoin.

Joe Biden and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an initiative to raise taxes on the rich, particularly on capital gains. Simply put, the profits from any investment will now be taxed at twice the tax rate. We are talking about a possible increase in the tax rate to 40%-55%. So far, the relevant legislation has not yet been adopted, so this is only an initiative. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also spoke about the possible introduction of a global single corporate tax, and Joe Biden - about a potential increase in the number of taxes for large corporations and wealthy Americans. Thus, with a high probability, taxes in the States will be raised, and it seems that this is how the government will extract excess liquidity from the markets. Recall that the US government has approved several stimulus packages worth more than $ 4 trillion over the past year alone. This "extra" money immediately settled in the cryptocurrency market. Over time, they will most likely be withdrawn from the economy and with the help of rich Americans and large corporations. However, for now, this means that investors may soon start revaluing their assets and reallocating cash. It means that the most profitable assets may begin to be in less demand because the level of profitability will decrease due to taxes. However, the level of risk will remain the same. Therefore, the outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market is now quite a possible development. Of course, so far, this is only an assumption of what may happen in the next year or two. However, bitcoin is already under severe pressure due to several negative fundamental factors.



In technical terms, the "cue ball" continues to be below the critical line and in the near future may gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line. It is already clear that the support level of $ 50,770 will be overcome. Thus, the chances of a further decline in bitcoin in the area of $ 43,850 are growing. Now it is time to talk not just about a downward correction but about a new long-term downward trend.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Nassim Taleb: Don't mess with Bitcoin!



Bitcoin continues to "balance over the abyss". Nassim Taleb, the author of the world bestseller "Black Swan", once again criticized cryptocurrency. According to Taleb, bitcoin is a typical Ponzi scheme. "There is no correlation between inflation and bitcoin," Taleb said. He recommends that investors buy a plot of land or a house as a tool against inflation. "The best strategy for investors is to own those things that can bring income. Do not mess with bitcoin, buy shares of stable corporations and those things that you understand," Taleb said. Thus, Taleb, who does not own cryptocurrencies, as a disinterested expert, believes that bitcoin is a "bubble" that will burst sooner or later. From our perspective, the opinion of a non-interested in the growth of the "cue ball" is more valuable than any investor who already has cryptocurrencies on his balance sheet.

Simultaneously, the CEO of the analytical company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, said that the growth potential for the first cryptocurrency is still very high. He called the recent weeks a "cooling of the market", and the fall in bitcoin prices – a "technical correction". However, the CEO of CryptoQuant believes that "digital gold" will resume the upward trend. As the reasons for the fall of bitcoin, Ki Young Ju does not consider fundamental factors, such as a power outage in Xinjiang County in China or Joe Biden's initiative to raise tax rates in the United States. He believes that the correction occurred due to an excessive number of long positions with too much leverage. Roughly speaking, many traders had an extremely low "margin of safety," and the slightest decrease in the "cue ball" caused a wave of "margin calls" and forced position closures. And, unfortunately for bitcoin, this can be a serious reason for its further growth. After all, bitcoin is an extremely hype investment tool. Many traders, counting on its "constant" growth, really open deals with high leverage, leading to the demolition of stops and margin calls. You should never forget about money management and the risks of the transaction. But, as practice shows, not all investors and traders follow these rules, leading to a collapse in quotes. Although, of course, the influence of fundamental factors cannot be denied. Over the past ten days, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has decreased by $ 200 billion.



Let's take a look at the hourly timeframe, which we have already given in recent articles. There is a clear downward trend line here, which shows that the downward trend has already formed and is currently continuing. Quotes have passed over the last 12 -15 hours about $ 3,600 up, but sellers need to keep the "digital gold" below about the level of $ 56,500, which is still far away. Higher up, the bulls can retake the initiative.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ethereum ETH/USD, for April 23 - 26, 2021: Sell below $2,343



Yesterday the cryptocurrency market suffered heavy losses amid concerns about US President Joe Biden's plan to raise taxes on capital gains, which could undermine investments in digital assets.

The Bitcoin, the largest and most popular of the cryptocurrencies, broke its psychological level of $ 50,000, for the first time since the beginning of March, although this morning of the American session we are seeing a recovery.

The Ethereum ETH / USD set a new all-time high at 2,645.97. However, yesterday it fell more than 13% due to the news from the United States to the zone of 2,107. Some traders and analysts say that this drop is market corrections before new highs and classified it as temporary.

On the 1-hour chart, we note that ETH / USD is recovering above Murray's 6/8 support, and looking to break out of the 200 EMA located at 2,327 and Murray's 7/8.

In view of the fact that the eagle indicator is pointing to the oversold zone, a correction is likely for the continuation of the downward movement to the support zone of $ 2,100.

Our recommendation is to sell below 2,343 and buy at 2,187, a consolidation is expected for the next few days at these price levels.


Support And Resistance Levels For April 23 - 26, 2021

Resistance (1) $2,303
Resistance (2) $2,450
Resistance (3) $2,587

Support (1) $2,231
Support (2) $2,120
Support (3) $1,932




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
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