Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
S&P Dow Jones Indices has launched three new cryptocurrency indices: S&P Bitcoin Index, S&P Ethereum Index and S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index (a combination of Bitcoin and Ethereum) will allow retail investors to easily gain exposure to these two powerful cryptocurrencies.

Investors have long waited for a traditional financial product to track cryptocurrency prices. S&P announced last year that it would create a cryptocurrency index in 2021, and it has lived up to that promise with its latest launch.

The new indices can be used as tracking and comparison tools in the current financial world. More reliable pricing from an authoritative source will prevent investors from having to connect to potentially dubious APIs. They do not necessarily provide correct pricing data. S&P hopes this move will make it easier for investors to access a new class of crypto assets, and says it will reduce some of the risks associated with their speculative and volatile nature.

There is still no global product that retail investors can directly purchase to get exposure to real cryptocurrency prices like ETFs. The closest to that is the GBTC, which, however, is not always the exact measure of exposure as its premium fluctuates strongly. However, the S&P movement serves to further legitimate and strengthen the position of the cryptocurrency industry in the world of stocks and ETFs. This whole industry is just warming up to the adoption of cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading under the level of $55k again and the recent high was made at the level of $58,884. Since then, the market pulled-back towards the level of $53,000, which is the technical support for the bulls, but a new local low was made at the level of $52,901. Despite the new low, the pull-back is still not bigger than the last one (olive rectangles area on chart), so the bulls still have the chance to bounce higher and suspend the momentum. The key short-term technical support is $52,620 and $51,239.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $73,274
WR2 - $65,664
WR1 - $62,211

Weekly Pivot - $54,445
WS1 - $50,865
WS2 - $43,394
WS3 - $39,732


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin dominance index declines. Many experts believe that "Altcoin Season" has now begun



At this time, the corrective scenario remains the main one for Bitcoin. In principle, our assumption continued to be confirmed yesterday. It is true that a reversal in any direction can occur in the market at any time and from any price position. Furthermore, no one knows when huge investors such as Tesla and MicroStrategy, as well as Elon Musk, will announce news that could hype up bitcoin. But if you look exclusively at the technical picture, the "digital gold" still bounced off the level of 61.8% - $58,000. This level was called "the last frontier" and, as you can see, it has survived. Now, bitcoin quotes will again tend first to the Senkou Span B line ($52,300), then to the previous low of about $47,000 per coin. We believe that even if the current movement is a correction, although it is possible that the upward trend is already completed, there should be at least one more round of the downward trend. It is logical to assume that the minimum of this round should be below the minimum of the previous round of correction. Thus, we are waiting for a further drop in quotes.

The fundamental background for bitcoin has been rather weak lately. The entire crypto community has now turned its attention to Ethereum, which continues to break records of value and is already called a "true digital currency", which is really intended for payments and settlements. This is because of the following reasons: Bitcoin is currently so expensive that it scares off many potential investors. Also, everyone understands that an asset cannot grow indefinitely. Sooner or later, there will be either a serious correction or a downward trend. Therefore, the higher you buy Bitcoin, the less profit you get. In addition, the upward trend has frankly weakened in recent months, as we have repeatedly discussed. And lastly, the fundamental background has not been the most favorable in recent weeks.

Many experts believe that the so-called "altcoin season" has now begun. Simply put, the bitcoin dominance index continues to fall, because investors have begun to shift their funds from the first cryptocurrency, which is already growing with great difficulty, to altcoins like Ethereum or Binance Coin, which are much cheaper and continue to grow. Experts believe that this flow of capital is explained very simply. The higher bitcoin gets, the fewer new investors want to deal with it, and the potentially bigger its fall will be. But Ethereum or Binance Coin look much less dangerous in this regard. Experts also note that retail investors are probably leaving Bitcoin at this time, while institutions stay calm amid a small drop in the price and continue to keep coins on their balance sheet. Thus, most experts agree that large investors will continue to hold bitcoin in their portfolios.



In technical terms, bitcoin bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci level. So, the further growth of "digital gold" will not happen for the time being, given the lack of a supporting fundamental background and the technical exit of quotes beyond the ascending channel. The chances of a corrective fall remain high, and the movement of the last few days was not like the market growth of bitcoin, but a desperate attempt by the bulls to maintain the upward trend.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD for May 05 - 06, 2021: Sell below $56,250



According to the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA, after having encountered strong resistance at 6/8 Murray. BTC has been falling to find support at $53,150.

A break below this level could allow Bitcoin to continue its downward movement until it finds support at the psychological level of $50,000.

Bearish pressure keeps BTC below 2/8 of a murray, located at $56,250 that could certainly cause Bitcoin to drop to the support of $46,850.

BTC is in a bearish cycle as the last attempt to break the $60,000 barrier has been disrupted at the $59,000 level, and from that level the price is retreating.

Our recommendation is to sell below or if there is a pullback of $56,250, or sell if the BTC breaks $53,200


Support and Resistance Levels For May 05 - 06, 2021

Resistance (1) $56,175
Resistance (2) $56,914
Resistance (3) $59,207

Support (1) $52,843
Support (2) $51,001
Support (3) $49,898



Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ebay may allow cryptocurrencies as payments

Looking at the hourly time frame, there is a very interesting situation with a pronounced upward trend line. It was this trend line that supported the upward momentum that has formed in recent days. However, a misfortune happened, and the quotes of the "cue ball" were fixed below this line. Thus, from a technical point of view, the upward trend is broken and so, we now expect a new downward trend on the time frame and a new round of correction on the daily one.



New data is coming to the market that allows us to draw certain conclusions, while Bitcoin is trying to make a new decline, which looks very logical both from a technical and fundamental point of view. It was already mentioned previously that Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, said in Bloomberg's interview that the volatility of Bitcoin does not exceed the volatility of Tesla or Apple stocks. Well in fact, it exceeds, and strongly. Therefore, these words of the Binance head was regarded as an attempt to manipulate the market. Recently, many have noted the fact that Bitcoin's bullish trend is weakening. This was discussed a few months ago. In order for this upward trend to remain strong, a constant influx of new investors and investments is required. In this way, many top officials of the cryptocurrency industry in the near future may begin to praise Bitcoin again and give completely impressive predictions in order to try to convince participants of the security of the market. Earlier, Zhao also advised all those who are under serious stress due to trading operations with cryptocurrency to change their strategy to "buy and hold". It is hardly worth commenting on anything here, since the more investors adhere to just such a strategy, the less there will be sales in the market, the higher the price of any cryptocurrency will grow, which is required again for the "top officials" of the cryptocurrency segment, as well as crypto millionaires and crypto billionaires. As a result, the head of the largest and most famous exchange is clearly trying to increase the demand for the main global cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin declines again to $ 47,000, then at these levels, most crypto experts will talk about the extreme attractiveness of the current levels for new purchases.

Meanwhile, Ebay CEO Jamie Iannone said that the company is considering the possibility of making cryptocurrencies as payments. The head of Ebay said that his company is trying to keep up with the times, and since cryptocurrencies have gained such popularity around the world, it should be possible for the participants of the platform to make payments in digital assets. However, rumors about the integration of crypto payments into the Ebay system have been going around for a long time, but so far no concrete steps have been taken.



On the hourly timeframe, a very interesting situation has developed with a pronounced uptrend line. It was this trend line that supported the upward momentum that has formed in recent days. However, a misfortune happened, and tonight the cue ball quotes fixed below this line. Thus, from a technical point of view, the upward trend is broken, so now we expect a new downtrend on the hourly timeframe and a new round of correction on the daily timeframe.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple's XRP turns lower after getting rejected at key Fibonacci resistance

In our last analysis on XRP/USD we noted the increased chances of a reversal and we mentioned that it was justified for XRP/USD to turn lower towards $1.36 or even $1.18. Today price has reached the first pull back target as it made a low at $1.31 area. Price has stopped the decline at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward move. A bounce back to $1.45-$1.50 is possible, but as long as price is below $1.66, there is still chance of a move towards $1.18.



Red rectangle -major Fibonacci resistance

Green rectangle - major horizontal support

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement levels

XRP/USD is trading now at $1.40. Price has started making lower lows and lower highs after the rejection at $1,60-$1.70 resistance. Bulls need to recapture this level in order to hope for a move to new short-term highs above $1.97. Otherwise there is danger of seeing price towards $1 and even lower. Support is found now at the next Fibonacci retracement level at $1.27 but the most important Fibonacci retracement level is the 61.8% at $1.18. Resistance is found at $1.49 and next at $1.55. I expect price to make a short-term bounce and continue lower towards $1.18.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ripple XRP, for May 04 - 05, 2021: Sell below $1.5625



During the previous sessions, the XRP has been moving in a range between $ 1.6423 and $ 1.5625. It is now trading below this level.

Ripple XRP price, faced rejection around 4/8 of murray at $ 1.5625, is now trading below the 21 SMA, and above the 200 EMA. From this level, there is likely to be a bearish move to the bottom of the upward channel.

On the contrary, a sharp bullish momentum could break through $1.5625 and $1.64 barrier, and the XRP price would target the annual high around $1.9531, and reach the key level of $2.34 which is the monthly resistance.

On the 4-hour chart, you can see that XRP is trading within the uptrend channel, so any pullback could be considered a correction for further bullish momentum.

The technical reading of the eagle indicator shows that the XRP is showing a sign of bullish exhaustion and is accumulating, in order to attract more buyers and be able to challenge the 1.65 barrier, to reach levels of 1.95 and 2.34 in the short term.

Our recommendation is to sell below the 21 SMA and we can also buy at the support of the 200 EMA or if it hits the uptrend channel for a new uptrend wave.


Support and Resistance Levels For May 04 - 05, 2021
Resistance (1) 1.4938
Resistance (2) 1.5545
Resistance (3) 1.6074

Support (1) 1.4006
Support (2) 1.3783
Support (3) 1.3604





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 04,.2021 - Completion of the ABC upside correction and potential re-test of $57.800

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that sellers are in control and that there is still space for more downside and test of lower reference points.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies using the intraday charts.

I found completion of the ABC upside correction on the daily time-frame, which is sign for further downside continuation.

The downside targets are set at the price of $53.000 and $48.000Additionally, there is the fresh bear cross on the Stochastic oscillator and the overbought condition, which is another sign of weakness..Resistance: $58.000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 04, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin turns lower from $58,000-59,000 zone as discussed earlier, in line with projections. The crypto has dropped through $55,000-56,000 levels as of now and might continue lower towards $43,000 at least, as highlighted on the daily chart here. Bottom line is that prices must stay below $65,000 to keep the above short-term bearish structure intact.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading at around $56,000 levels at this point in writing and is expected to drag further lower to complete the Gartley structure. Immediate price resistance stays at $65,000 mark, while support comes in around $43,000, followed by $41,000 levels respectively. A break below $50,500 will confirm a lower top in place around $58,000-59,000 levels and that bears would be poised to accelerate lower.

Bitcoin is just producing a potential counter trend from $65,000 levels. After terminating around $41,000-43,000 zone, the crypto is expected to turn higher again towards $75,000 and above. It remains to be seen how soon the counter trend unfolds and where does it terminate. Also note that fibonacci 0.382 retracement is also passing through $41,500 levels, potential bullish bounce could be seen if prices drop there.


Trading plan:
Remain short, stop @ 65,000, target @ 41,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Seems Exhausted!

Ethereum is trading in the green trying to erase the early morning losses. The price has registered a new historical high of 3,457.64, so a temporary decline is natural.

Ethereum remains bullish despite a temporary correction. Actually, the short-term decline could help us to catch a new upside momentum. It remains to see how it will react during the day because it could invalidate a decline if it stabilizes above the broken obstacles.


ETH/USD BEARISH ENGULFING!



ETH/USD was expected to increase further after registering a valid breakout above the red upside line of the former up channel. It has found strong resistance at the R2 (3,427.41), which's why it has decreased to retest the R1 (3,190.12).

Now the price is trapped between the R2 and R1 levels. Dropping and stabilizing below the R1 could signal a further decline towards the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork.

On the other hand, jumping and stabilizing above the R2 could signal further growth towards fresh all-time highs.


ETHEREUM OUTLOOK!

The major bearish engulfing printed today signals that ETH/USD buyers are exhausted and that the price could slip lower. Still, the bias remains bullish in the short term as long as the rate stays above the R1 (3,190).

Consolidation above R1 could bring a new upside momentum and a new long opportunity.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin currently has over $ 1 billion worth of digital coins at his main ETH address (which he revealed in October 2018). The 27-year-old developer also owns several other tokens. Buterin has several other addresses, although he has stated that their balances are "fairly small."

Either way, the balance of his primary address makes Buterin already the second youngest billionaire to have made his fortune on his own. In the first position is Austin Russell, CEO of Luminar Technologies.

Russell replaced beauty tycoon Kylie Jenner on top of that podium after she was removed from Forbes' list last year for the sake of her family's fortune.

ETH has gained 316 percent so far this year, significantly surpassing bitcoin. Despite the spectacular ETH rally so far, Fundstrat believes that ETH still has room for further upward moves and continues to maintain their forecast that the price of ether could reach USD 10,500.

JPMorgan pointed out that there is an inherent difference between bitcoin and ethereum, where BTC is store-of-value, and ETH is the technology and backbone of the entire crypto-native economy, playing a much wider role than just a medium of value exchange.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $3,442 (at the time of writing the article). The rally from the level of $2,955 has ended with a Pin Bar candlestick, which might indicate a potential pull-back. The immediate technical support is located at the level of $3,184, but if this level is violated, then the next technical support is seen at $2,955. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are now extremely overbought, so a correction is welcome.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,152
WR2 - $3,563
WR1 - $3,343

Weekly Pivot - $2,736
WS1 - $2,538
WS2 - $1,587
WS3 - $1,750


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $4,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,550, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021