Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Litecoin on May 6, 2021

1. Analysis of volumes for the instrument LTCUSDT from the Binance exchange.

This analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Binance exchange on daily charts. It is carried out on the basis of the "Footprint-Profile" theory, in which the movement of the level of the maximum horizontal volume per day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

05/04/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 319
05.05.21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 349

The point of control moved upwards. The price is below the POC level. There is a sideways movement in the market, so you can buy and sell.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but don't know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term.

It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any deal. This is what we will do in this analysis.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be executed on the daily timeframe and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out using the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend in front of us and we should buy. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downtrend and we should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The long-term trend is upward, so buying is worth considering in this situation.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)) will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is upward, so you can buy.


4. Analysis of the short-term trend.

A short-term trend that can show the point of entry into the market well is a trend on the H1 timeframe. We will be helped by the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the H1 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is in line with the EMA (48). The short-term trend is sideways, so you can buy and sell. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick is closed upwards, the candlestick is white. Its maximum is higher than the maximum of the previous candlestick. Candlestick configuration - Trend candlestick, large body, long shadows. From the point of view of candlestick analysis, you can buy.


6. Conclusions.

Volumetric analysis - BUY SELL.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY.
Short-term trend - BUY SELL.
Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY.

General conclusion: On May 6, 2021, you can buy and sell, since different types of analysis give different forecasts.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics are kept on completed transactions. Forecasts are made and transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCHUSD. The yield is 12.1% for 3 months with a maximum drawdown of 4.88%.


Statement:


I do not open new deals if there is uncertainty in the market.

Risk per trade is 1% of the deposit. For new trades, the stop loss is located beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set take profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will gain profits!



Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 06, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has raised through $5800/500 levels today and might be testing its recent swing highs around $59000 mark before turning lower again. Since sub $65000 levels, the crypto has carved the first leg of a corrective drop towards $47000, followed by the second leg towards $59000 respectively. It is quite possible that bulls push through $60000 before giving into bears, going forward.

Bottom line remains $65000 mark for the above bearish structure to remain intact. Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $58000 levels at this point in writing and is expected to resume its 3rd leg lower towards $43000 and $41000 levels respectively. Immediate resistance is at $65000 mark, while support comes in around $53000 levels respectively. A drop below $53000 would be encouraging to bears and it would accelerate further.

Bitcoin is holding its one year strong uptrend and there are no signs of a bearish reversal yet. We are proposing a corrective drop towards $41000 levels, which is also the fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3850 and $65000 levels respectively. Expect the rally to resume thereafter and push above $65000 levels.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 65000, target @ 43000 and @41000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forecast for May 6, 2021

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

If you want to make money on cryptocurrencies, you should refrain from using aggressive trading approaches, especially if you are a beginner. The best thing to do would be to apply a traditional method. Let us take a look at aggressive money management approaches that should only be used by experienced traders.

Locking is an aggressive money management strategy. According to this approach, a trader does not close a losing trade but opens a new one in the opposite direction. Thus, the position is locked, and a buy and a sell trade are open at the same time. A lock is several positions open for one instrument in different directions.



On the chart above, there is an example of how a lock is used. We open a long position, hoping that the bull trend extends, but do not place a Stop Loss. When the trend reverses, we open a short position, thus minimizing losses.

Any lock, if held for a long time, will be cancelled by a commission. If a position is held overnight, a commission will be charged, which means that losses will expand, albeit at a much slower rate. That is why there is no need to hold locks for a long time.

Thus, locking is an aggressive and complex money management strategy. It should only be used by professional traders.


2. Volume analysis of BTC from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

Bitcoin is still moving sideways. Let us consider the levels of the highest traded volume from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These levels indicate bull activity.

04.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 55,730
05.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 57,315

The POC has moved up. The price is below the POC. The market is in the sideways trend. Both long and short positions can be considered based on volume analysis.


3. Trend analysis

Our second step is to check the short-term, the mid-term, and the long-term trends. You can enter the market when all three trends are in line. In this forecast, trends are analyzed with the help of an exponential moving average:

Long-term trend – a blue EMA 1152 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the D1 chart;

Mid-term trend – a red EMA 288 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the H4 chart;

Short-term trend – a black EMA 48 on the H1 chart.



EMAs start heading up, indicating the possibility of the upward trend. That is why you should enter long positions according to trend analysis.


4. Japanese candlestick analysis

Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step of this trading strategy. Let us analyze yesterday's daily candlestick:



The white daily candlestick has closed upward. Extreme points are outside the previous candlestick. It is the Absorption candlestick pattern. Yesterday's candlestick is bigger that the prevoius day's one. Based on Japanese candlestick analysis, you should consider entering long positions today.


5. Conclusion.

Statistics Volume analysis – BUY/SELL
Long-term trend – BUY
Medium-term trend – BUY
Short-term trend – BUY
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY


Conclusion: You can both buy and sell BTC on May 6, since various analyses provide different forecasts.

Only statistics can reveal how efficient a trading strategy is. In this forecast, trades are carried out in a separate account. Trades are conducted in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. 3-months gains: 12.1%. Drawdown: 4.88%. Statement:



I do not open new trades due to market uncertainty.

The risk per trade is no more than 1%. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. A Take Profit is not set. A Stop Loss is moved beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Ethereum on May 6, 2021

1. Analysis of volumes for the ETHUSDT instrument from the Binance exchange.

This analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Binance exchange on daily charts. It is carried out on the basis of the "Footprint-Profile" theory, in which the movement of the level of the maximum horizontal volume per day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

05/04/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3302
05.05.21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3520

The point of control moved upwards. The price is below the POC level. A sideways movement may start in the market, so you can buy and sell.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but don't know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term.

It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any deal. This is what we will do in this analysis.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be executed on the daily timeframe and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out using the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend in front of us and we should buy. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and we should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The long-term trend is upward, so buying is worth considering in this situation.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is upward, so you can consider buying.


4. Analysis of the short-term trend.

A short-term trend that can show the point of entry into the market well is a trend on the H1 timeframe. We will be helped by the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the H1 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The short-term trend is upward, which means that you can buy. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends are the same.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candle is closed upwards, the candlestick is white. Its extremes are within the extremes of the previous candlestick. Candlestick configuration - Hammer pointing up, small body, long lower shadow. From the point of view of candlestick analysis, you can buy.


6. Conclusions.

Volumetric analysis - BUY SELL.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY.
Short-term trend - BUY.
Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY.

General conclusion: On May, 6, 2021, you can buy and sell, since different types of analysis give different forecasts.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics are kept on completed transactions. Forecasts and transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. The yield is 12.1% for 3 months with a maximum drawdown of 4.88%.


Statement:


I do not open new deals amid market uncertainty.

Risk per trade is 1% of the deposit. For new trades, the stop loss is located beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set take profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will generate profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Consolidates Its Gains Ahead Of New Rally!

Ethereum tries to stabilize above a broken resistance before resuming its upside journey. ETH/USD reached a new all-time high of 3,559.97 in yesterday's session. Technically, the price has managed to take out new upside obstacles, so the bias remains bullish.

In the short term, ETH/USD could decrease a little to test and retest the immediate support levels before jumping higher again.


ETH/USD MORE UPSIDE IN VIEW!


ETH/USD was has consolidated and accumulated more bullish energy between the weekly R1 (3,189) and R2 (3,428) levels and now it has managed to stabilize above the R2 and beyond the first warning line (WL1).

Consolidating above the R2 and maybe retesting the warning line (WL1) could bring a new upside momentum towards fresh historical highs. The bias remains bullish in the short term as long as the rate stays above the WL1 and R1 broken levels.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!

A false breakdown with great separation below R2 and WL1, or a major bullish engulfing printed on these obstacles could signal new bullish momentum. Consolidating above the R1 followed by a new higher high, bullish closure above 3,559 all-time high could represent a buying signal.

The next major upside target is seen at the R2 (3,868.84) level. The bullish scenario could be invalidated if the rate drops below R1 (3,189).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
A survey by the credit card giant Mastercard revealed that four out of ten people plan to use cryptocurrencies for payments over the next year.

The study, published on May 4, entitled "Consumer Appetite for Digital Payments Growing," covered more than 15,500 people from 18 countries.

It found that millennials are particularly committed to cryptocurrencies, and more than two-thirds or 67% agree they are more open to cryptocurrency than a year ago. In addition, 77% of millennials are interested in learning more about cryptocurrencies, while 75% agree that they would use digital resources if they understood them better.

Millennials are classified by the US Census Bureau as born between 1982 and 2000, which means that their age range in 2021 is 21 to 39.

The move towards expanding access to cryptocurrencies has already begun - in mid-February, Mastercard announced that it would be processing digital asset payments for nearly one billion users that could be used by over 30 million retailers. 40% of total cryptocurrency usage covered all age groups surveyed, with respondents coming from North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific.

Mastercard said that while consumer interest in "liquid cryptocurrencies" such as Bitcoin is high, further work is still required to ensure consumer choice, protection and compliance.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced higher towards the level of $57,324, which is the short-term technical resistance for bulls. The local high was made at the level of $57,837 and since then the market is consolidating the recent gains. The next target is seen at the level of $58,888 ( May 3rd high) and then at $60,000. The momentum remains positive, but is not that strong anymore, so please keep an eye on the level of $55,674, which is the technical support for the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $73,274
WR2 - $65,664
WR1 - $62,211

Weekly Pivot - $54,445
WS1 - $50,865
WS2 - $43,394
WS3 - $39,732


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
EBay will be looking for crypto payment options for its clients as well as exploring ways to introduce NFT tokens to the platform.

In a TV interview, eBay CEO Jamie Iannone said the company would "continue to look" at payment options such as cryptocurrencies. In addition, he said eBay will "explore the possibilities" of incorporating NFT tokens on the platform "in an easy way."

"One of the great things about eBay is that when a new trend emerges, it just pops up on eBay. That's what we're seeing in areas like the NFT, and we're wondering how we can better research it."

The CEO said part of the NFT "is already traded" on the platform, but eBay has not yet simplified the process for buyers and sellers. Some users may also put Bitcoins up for sale, seemingly without eBay specifically sanctioning such auctions.

The company's management had previously suggested that eBay might be open to accepting crypto payments. Three years ago, the company's senior vice president said eBay was "seriously considering" including Bitcoin as a payment method.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made another marginal all time high at the level of $3,539, but the rally from the level of $2,955 has ended with a Pin Bar and Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns, which might indicate a potential pull-back. Please notice the WR2 is located at $3,563. The immediate technical support is located at the level of $3,184, but if this level is violated, then the next technical support is seen at $2,955. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are now extremely overbought, so a correction is welcome. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,152
WR2 - $3,563
WR1 - $3,343

Weekly Pivot - $2,736
WS1 - $2,538
WS2 - $1,587
WS3 - $1,750


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $4,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,550, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The bulls refuse to let bitcoin go into correction



Bitcoin has again risen in price over the past trading day, and this time, it is about 2.5 thousand dollars. So, it returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which we have previously referred to as the "last frontier". Now, bitcoin is really on the verge of resuming the upward trend. To do this, investors only need to overcome the level of $58,000 per coin. But despite yesterday's growth, we still believe that a correction remains more promising. It should be noted that any hypothesis requires specific technical confirmation. So if the level of $58,000 is not overcome, our hypothesis will be confirmed. And if so, then the upward trend will most likely resume.

The fundamental background for bitcoin has not changed in recent years and remained moderately negative. Several more or less significant news items have been received over the past 24 hours. For example, it became known that in the near future, hundreds of American banks can provide their customers with the opportunity to buy, sell and store bitcoin using their regular accounts. This news could be the driver of the growth of bitcoin quotes yesterday, as it opens up access to bitcoin investments for a huge mass of ordinary Americans. It is reported that most of the banks that participate in this campaign are small banks with several branches, but in total they have opened more than 300 million accounts. Large investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are also preparing to provide their clients with the opportunity to conduct operations with cryptocurrency, but we are only talking about large clients in this case.

Thus, in the coming months, Americans will be able to buy and sell bitcoin, even without going to the stock exchange for this and without understanding all the subtleties of this process. You can do this on your mobile phone in the app of your bank. At the same time, opinion polls showed that about 40% of users of the MasterCard payment system plan to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies next year. And in Australia, investors equated bitcoin with stocks. Only 3% Australians said they were more willing to invest in stocks than in bitcoin. Based on these data, bitcoin has really good prospects for 2021. In addition to the increasing introduction of digital assets in the lives of ordinary Americans and not only, the United States continues to pour trillions of dollars into the economy. Some of this money is almost guaranteed to move to the cryptocurrency market, which has been observed over the past year. Thus, the opportunity to invest in bitcoin is now not only for large investors and institutions, but also for ordinary people. And because of this, bitcoin can really continue to grow in 2021.



In technical terms, bitcoin bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci level, but it has already managed to return to this level. Thus, for the time being, the further growth of "digital gold" is still in doubt. However, the fundamental background is improving for bitcoin, so if the $58,000 level is overcome, the upward trend is likely to resume. The chances of a corrective fall remain high, but slowly decreasing.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin reached the $ 58,000 mark again as hundreds of US banks supported it



It was quite some time for the main cryptocurrency, since it declined to the level of $ 53, 000 while other altcoins were increasing. However, the bullish trend and the statement of the US banks allowed BTC to rise again. The daily increase was more than five percent. Now, the main task of the holders will be to buy as many bits as possible in their portfolios exclusively for personal storage.

This could mean Bitcoin's return to a long-term bullish trend. After this approval from the banks and the positive mood of the global holders, the bearish trend that accompanied Bitcoin is disappearing recently.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin will not collapse, and will not globally plunge. It will most likely fluctuate at the same level for a while and then accelerate with rapid speed following the bullish trend and with the support of large corporations and investors. So far, the leading digital asset has a good upside potential, and the cycle is not over yet. Thus, everything leads to the fact that Bitcoin will reach its April high in the near future and go for $ 65,000. The asset is currently trading at $ 57,500.

The holders finally received extreme warm welcome from the banks, as well as favorable conditions for the purchase of the cue ball. These measures should help Bitcoin grow, because against its background, other altcoins have already surged, such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. It is important for Bitcoin to defend its relevance and the title as the leading cryptocurrency.

It can be noted that Ethereum has broken the $ 3,000 mark, while Dogecoin is already trading for $ 0.5. In this case, Bitcoin adherents should start buying up the asset as soon as possible. BTC is expected to receive support from hundreds of US banks in 2021, which is clearly a huge gain and approval for holders. This banking trust makes it easier for global corporations, investors, and holders to purchase Bitcoin based on a trusted banking relationship.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD up against major short-term resistance

XRP/USD has bounced back to its important resistance area of $1.55-$1.65 after touching our first pull back area of $1.35. Bulls need to break above the resistance area over the next couple of days, otherwise a rejection will follow and price might fall back to $1.35 and maybe lower.



Red rectangle - major resistance

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements

So far XRP/USD retraced 38% of the rise and is now back up inside the resistance area. Traders need to be cautious and not over optimistic. Bouncing off the 38% retracement is a good sign but also justified. Bulls need to break above the resistance area. Support is found at $1.52 and next at $1.37. If these levels are broken, then expect XRP/USD to push lower towards $1.18-$1. A break above resistance area will open the way for a move towards $1.80-$1.85 before breaking to new 2021 highs.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021