Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.



Black lines - Fibonacci support levels

Blue line - short-term support trend line

XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin remains in bullish mode respecting channel support

Bitcoin continues to respect the channel support and bulls still have hopes for a new all time high. For this to be achieved, bulls need to break above $59,500-$59,800 price level. We explained in a previous post that this neckline resistance if broken will activate an inverted head and shoulders bullish pattern.



Blue lines - bullish channel

Red rectangle - neckline resistance

BTC/USD continues making higher highs and higher lows inside the long-term upward sloping channel. Price has touched for the second time in the last 15 days the lower channel boundary and is bouncing off of it. For the up trend however in order to remain intact, bulls will need to do more work. Bulls will need to break above the red rectangle resistance. If this resistance is broken, target is $75,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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A Bitcoin whale transferred almost $300 million worth of BTC to another wallet



With the Bitcoin humpback whale transferring nearly $300 million worth of BTC this week, bitcoin whales are actively transferring their crypto assets on a large scale. Many whales periodically appear to carry out huge transactions, thereby introducing other crypto enthusiasts into a stupor and euphoria.

According to the monitoring, the day before yesterday, the user transferred 5,193 BTC to an unknown wallet. Bitcoin underwent a minor correction on Wednesday after BTC fell almost 4%. Bitcoin is trading today at around $57,700 with a market cap of $1.04 trillion. The $1 trillion market cap of BTC works well for a digital currency, because the power of the Bitcoin network significantly exceeds the $1 trillion market cap.

More than 1.98 million bitcoins with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion have been pegged. Bitcoin whales play an important role in the price dynamics of BTC, as the movement of large quantities creates a shortage of supply. In addition to the last monumental transfer of 5,193 BTC, another bitcoin whale moved 3,357 BTC worth more than $190 million.

The institutional adoption of BTC has grown rapidly since the beginning of 2021. The world's largest cryptocurrency achieved its best Q1 2021 results for the first time since 2013. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square have accumulated a huge amount of digital currencies over the past few months. Earlier this week, MicroStrategy announced that it had acquired an additional $15 million of BTC. The business analysis company now has 91,000 BTC in reserve.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for April 07, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin bears have managed to drag prices lower to $57,500 from the top of consolidation range around $59,000 levels, but it needs to break below $56,500 mark to reach $54,000 and find strong support. Thereafter, bulls are expected to be back in control and push prices higher towards $63,000 and above. The overall trend remains up but a corrective drop might materialize before a new high.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading near $57,500 levels at this point in writing and it could produce a swift drop towards $54,000/55,000 levels before reversing higher again. Immediate short term support is at $50,000, while intermediate resistance is seen towards $62,000 levels respectively. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally between $50,300 and $60,000 is seen around $53,000/54,000 levels, hence probability of a bullish reversal remains high if prices manage to drop there.

Overall uptrend remains very much intact until prices stay above $50,000 mark, going forward. A break there would encourage bears to drag further towards $43,000 and $40,000 levels to find the next support. Also note that fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $61,780 is seen around $40,000 levels respectively. Bulls are expected to take control back if prices drop through that zone.


Trading plan:

Buy @ 54,000/55,000, stop @ 50000, target above @ 63,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Retail investors dictate the fate of Bitcoin



Bitcoin is currently trading around $ 60,000. But quite recently, market sentiment has changed, which means that players are no longer willing to respond to news about Bitcoin investments. Therefore, the market needs an influx of new investors for it to undergo another strong growth.

At the same time, approximately 40% of bitcoin investors are small or retail. They bought the cryptocurrency just so they can gain profit as quickly as possible, which means that they will drop it at any time, especially if they think that the upward trend is ending. This is not good for the market because it means that the BTC portfolio will not be sustained. But if large players buy up all the coins that went on sale immediately, then there will simply be a redistribution of owners, not a significant price change. Bitcoin's value will decrease only if supply exceeds demand.

But the stumbling block in seeing new investors is that the governments of almost every country in the world view cryptocurrencies as something that finances terrorism, criminal operations and money laundering. In fact, UK authorities foresee that cybercrimes related to cryptocurrencies will surge, so the fight against Bitcoin will continue. However, this should not affect prices very much.



And technically, nothing has changed in Bitcoin yet. There is no downward correction even if buyers failed to overcome $ 60,000 again. Nevertheless, the main cryptocurrency is walking on thin ice and any large sell off can trigger a strong collapse. To be more specific, dropping below $ 52,300 or $ 44,000 will provoke a very sharp downward movement.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Experts believe that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021: Is BTC an ideal investment now?



Wall Street banks, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley allow customers to own BTC. MicroStrategy continues to vehemently add bitcoin to its reserves. And giant corporations like PayPal, Mastercard, Starbucks, and Tesla have given the green light to accept bitcoin as payment. However, Bitcoin will not be able to overcome the price extremum of $61,000 and go into accelerated growth without the huge influence of buyers. Unfortunately, BTC has failed to reach the $60,000 milestone three times already. Bitcoin needs momentum and constant testing of the $60,000 level. With strong resistance, there is a huge probability that the cryptocurrency will break through this bar.

The reduction in bitcoin's volatility will probably lead to huge profits. Banks can set a long-term target value of $100 - $120,000 per cryptocurrency, as it is the best alternative asset for investors. Many experts are adamant that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Given the current value of $56,500, a huge number of people purchase BTC since:

-There is a great demand for digital use.
-The need for decentralization is increasing.
-Having spread its wings, blockchain is in great demand.
-Famous traders and influencers store BTC and promote it to the mainstream.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Litecoin Validates Upside Breakout!

Litecoin (LTC/USD) decreased in the short term after failing to reach the 247.00 higher high. It has come back down as the price of Bitcoin has slipped lower as well. The crypto has retested a broken dynamic resistance and now it starts increasing.

The outlook is bullish so LTC/USD may resume its uptrend as the retreat seems over. Litecoin may increase if Bitcoin will resume its major uptrend after the current temporary decline.


LTC/USD TRADING IN THE GREEN!



LTC/USD found resistance right above the 250% Fibonacci line and right below 247.00 static resistance. It has retested the broken downtrend line and now it could jump above the 250% line.

The bias remains bullish as long as the crypto is traded above the uptrend line. Now is traded far above this dynamic support, so it could try to jump higher after the minor decline.


LTC/USD FORECAST!

The current decline could help the bulls to catch a new upside momentum. Jumping and stabilizing above the 250% line may signal further growth.

We may have a great long entry if the price jumps and stabilizes above 247.00 static resistance. The upside scenario could be invalidated only if the price drops below the uptrend line and under 200 psychological level.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin may skyrocket to $400,000

Recently, Bloomberg analysts have given a new mind-boggling forecast for bitcoin. According to Bloomberg bitcoin (BTC) analysts, bitcoin could climb as high as $400,000 this year. Notably, this is not the first bullish forecast for the virtual currency.

"To reach price extremes akin to those years in 2021, the crypto would approach $400,000, based on the regression since the 2011 high. In September, 180-day volatility on the crypto about matched the all-time low from October 2015. From that month's average price, bitcoin increased a little over 50x to the peak in 2017," they stressed.

In order to demonstrate similar dynamics, based on the regression from the high values of 2011, bitcoin should reach $400,000 per coin.

Naturally, sometimes history repeats itself. Nevertheless, at the same time, success in the past in the financial markets does not guarantee success in the future.

Experts note that the bullish momentum began after the third halving of bitcoin occurred. Then the miners ' reward for mining fell to 6.25 bitcoins. After the previous second halving, which occurred in the summer of 2016 and after the first one at the end of 2012, there were periods of growth of bitcoin for a year and a half. "The year after a supply cut (halving) is what 2021 has in common with 2017 and 2013, along with subdued volatility. The December 2017 peak represented a 50-fold rise from the average price observed in October 2015, when the 180-day volatility reached lifetime lows," analysts pointed out.

According to the Bloomberg Crypto report, the period during the year after the halving was a common sign of three periods of growth. Besides, in that period, volatility was low. In September 2020, the indicator of the long-term level of volatility hit minimum values. At that time, the price of bitcoin was hovering near $11,000.

Currently, demand for bitcoin may increase amid rising US Treasury yields. Gold will lose its luster with investors amid such a turn of events. They will flock to the crypto market.

From the previous review, you probably remember the influence of large investors on the dynamics of the crypto market. So, recently, the popular cryptocurrency analyst, Willy Foo. predicted the explosive bullish rally for bitcoin. This growth cycle is not over yet, so Wu recommends refraining from opening short deals on BTC.

Meanwhile, as expected yesterday, bitcoin was able to consolidate above the support level formed by the level of 100 on Fibo Expansion (55779.73). It is recovering, maintaining a small margin to the resistance area of 58340.66 - 59517.79. After testing it, the cryptocurrency may probably try to break it once again. If it breaks above this level, BTC/USD may reach a historical high. If not, bitcoin will enter the sideways channel.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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JPMorgan CEO: Cryptocurrencies threaten the traditional banking sector



As Bitcoin continues to hover around the level of $60,000 and keeps failing to maintain the upward trend, its popularity does not subside, and the forecasts that continue to be voiced by the crypto community continue to amaze the imagination. Keep in mind that forecasts from people who benefit from the further growth of bitcoin are not likely to be reliable. It is natural that, figuratively speaking, the Winklevoss brothers, crypto billionaires, will say that bitcoin will grow to unprecedented heights, since they are the owners of a large number of coins that will become more expensive with the arrival of new investors on the market. Therefore, the main task of crypto millionaires and billionaires is to convince the market that bitcoin will continue to grow as long and as strong as possible. However, many analysts also support the further growth of bitcoin quotes. For example, Bloomberg analysts believe that bitcoin will be able to conquer the mark of $400,000 per coin this year, drawing analogies with the bullish trends in 2013 and 2017. It is true that Bloomberg analysts also fear that the rise in US bond yields will cause an outflow of investors from the cryptocurrency market, since these more classic instruments will also begin to protect investors from possible inflation, but they are much more stable and reliable than bitcoin. According to Bloomberg Crypto analysts, Bitcoin is still at the price determination stage.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to the bank's shareholders that any digital assets should be more tightly regulated by central banks and governments and have a clear legal status. Dimon believes that cryptocurrencies allow you to conduct financial transactions without using the services of the banking system, respectively, the demand for banking services with the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies may fall. Dimon also warned of the rise of "shadow banking." The head of JP Morgan also noted that at the moment, various US government agencies and political forces have different views on bitcoin. There is no clear opinion on what to do with the digital gold. Also, Dimon believes, not everyone in the government is aware of the damage that cryptocurrencies can cause to the financial and banking sector. "If the banks do not strengthen their positions, they risk becoming a thing of the past," said the head of JPMorgan.

At the same time, one of the oldest US banks, State Street, plans to enter the cryptocurrency segment this year and start trading cryptocurrencies. It is reported that the bank participated in the development of a trading platform for banks on digital assets. This trading platform will be designed for institutional investors, and the launch of trading is planned for mid-2021. However, this is not the first news that large banks are beginning to provide institutional clients with access to trading in the cryptocurrency market. According to many experts, the future of bitcoin now depends on institutions, and not on private owners, as in 2017 or in 2013. Thus, the more large investors will invest in bitcoin, the more stable the cryptocurrency will be. That is great, but even so, Bitcoin needs new investments. By the way, keep in mind that none of the experts say that bitcoin can now be traded in the corridor of 50-60 thousand per coin for many years. No one expects that the volatility will decrease and bitcoin will become stable. Everyone still treats digital gold not as a digital currency, but as an investment.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum Imminent Breakout!

Ethereum (ETH/USD) ended its decline and now is pressuring the immediate critical resistance. A breakout could confirm a further growth towards new highs. ETH/USD increased as the price of Bitcoin increased as well after the last decline.

As long as Bitcoin is bullish, Ethereum may resume its upwards movement. ETH/USD is bullish but we still need confirmation that the crypto resumes its upwards movement.


ETH/USD LOOKS TO TRADE NORTH!


ETH/USD is back below the first warning line (WL1) of the descending pitchfork after retesting the weekly pivot point ($1,965).

Technically, only a valid breakout above the warning line (WL1) and a new higher high could really validate an upside continuation.

The upside scenario could be invalidated if ETH/USD drops and stabilizes under the pivot point ($1,965).


OUTLOOK!

Jumping and closing above $2,144 could announce further growth and could offer us a new long opportunity. the $2,500 could be used as an upside target.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021