Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC analysis for March 31,.2021 - Broken bullish channel and potential for the drop towards $51.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart BTC, I found that there is the strong rejection of the major resistance at $60.000.

My advice is still to focus on the selling opportunities due to the breakout of the rising channel and strong supply.

The downside targets are set at the price of $55.000 and $51.000

Stochastic oscillator is showing triple bearish divergence, which is good sign for further downside movement.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Benoit Kere agrees with Jerome Powell on Bitcoin. Visa and PayPal allow their customers to pay with bitcoins



The number one cryptocurrency in the world is growing in price once more and is approaching its local and absolute highs again, which are around the level of $62.5 thousand. In the last few days, Bitcoin quotes have resumed growth due to the news from PayPal and Visa. Recall that the PayPal payment system announced the introduction of the ability for its customers to pay for purchases using the main cryptocurrencies. This service will be available in a few months. Visa, meanwhile, conducted the first cryptocurrency transaction in the USDC stablecoin using Ethereum. Now, all cryptocurrency transactions will pass through the digital money exchange platform Crypto.com, with which Visa has entered into an agreement. Thus, bitcoin and its counterparts continue to conquer the world, allowing more people to work with them to the fullest. The only question is, how many ordinary people will want to make payments using bitcoins, when there are a huge number of simpler and more understandable calculation tools?

Despite the fact that the two largest payment systems in the world already allow their customers to use cryptocurrencies as payments, the head of the Innovation Center of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Benoit Kere said that the cryptocurrency will not be able to become a full-fledged means of payment, as it is excessively volatile. According to him, bitcoin can be an excellent investment tool, but it can not be widely used as a means of payment and settlement because of its high volatility. "It did not pass the test of being a payment instrument, simply because its value is constantly changing, " said the head of the innovation department. Kere also believes that central banks will issue their own digital currencies over the next few years, which will be designed to provide financial security for their owners. "Central banks are focused on an instrument that would provide liquidity, security and that could be used in the global payment system," Kere said. Thus, Benoit Kere almost repeated the opinion of Jerome Powell, which was voiced a few days ago.

Meanwhile, the Indian authorities believe that banning bitcoin and other tokens on the territory of the country is not enough, and it is also necessary to tax all owners, while they have not yet got rid of their "digital assets". Indian Finance Minister Anurag Singh Thakur said that all owners of cryptocurrencies must pay income tax, because according to the law of 1961, this tax must be paid from any source of income. "The profits that were generated from transfers, mining, or from any transactions are also subject to taxation," Anurag Singh Thakur said. According to the Minister of Finance, each owner of a "digital asset" should calculate the amount of tax himself and pay it to the country's budget. As you can see, if in some countries the conditions for development are created for bitcoin, in others it can completely fall under the ban and be crushed by taxation. However, bitcoin is again inclined to grow due to positive news from Visa and PayPal. If the absolute highs are overcome in the coming days, we will need to see how strong the new round of the upward trend will be. If it is again weaker than the previous one, the chances of ending the upward trend will increase again.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Kraken CEO: one BTC to be worth Lamborghini this year and Bugatti in 2022

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell is very optimistic about future BTC prices. He has repeatedly noted that cryptocurrencies are heading towards "infinity," especially given that the United States continues to print excessive amounts of money.

When he was asked to specify that "infinity" in dollar terms, Powell said that even $1 million per bitcoin as a price target within the next ten years sounds "reasonable".

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Powell talked about measuring bitcoin in prices of luxury cars.

"It might be easier to understand if we measure it in terms of Teslas. Now 1 BTC is one Model 3. Probably by the end of the year, it will be one bitcoin for a Lambo. Probably by the end of next year, it will be one bitcoin per Bugatti".

Although Powell believes that there is no need to estimate the value of bitcoin in US dollars with the current Fed's policy, it is still worth reviewing how much one coin would be worth if his prediction comes true.

The cheapest new Lamborghini model in the US is currently the Huracan Evo worth $179,000. The most expensive one is the Aventador SVJ worth $515,000. Thus, BTC is projected to trade between $179,000 and $515,000 in the next nine months.

According to Powell's forecast, bitcoin could rise even higher in 2022. Given that the cheapest new Bugatti on sale in the US – Chiron – costs $2,990,000, this means that the price of bitcoin in dollar terms must gain more than 5,000%. The most expensive Bugatti, the Chiron Super Sport 300+, is worth $3,900,000.

In addition, the head of crypto exchange Kraken is rather bullish on Ethereum. He predicts that the price of ether would be well above $2,000 thanks to the upcoming release of ETH 2.0 and a large number of projects based on the Ethereum blockchain network.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Tesla solves the problem of vulnerability in BTCPay

After yesterday's confident upward movement of bitcoin, the activity of buyers decreased, however, it remained at a high level. Let me remind you that bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies and tokens have resumed their growth after the announcement that PayPal Holdings Inc customers will be able to use their cryptocurrency to pay for purchases from millions of online merchants around the world, which can significantly increase the use of digital assets in everyday trading. In a statement, the company said: Customers who have bitcoin, ether, bitcoin cash, and litecoin in PayPal digital wallets will now be able to convert their assets into fiat currencies to make purchases. This message led to an instant strengthening of the bitcoin exchange rate in the area of 59,000.



Today, it became known that the manufacturer of electric cars Tesla found a bug in the BTCPay network and provided assistance to fix it, which is another proof of Tesla's digging about its views on cryptocurrency. The car manufacturer discovered a bug in the open-source bitcoin payment processor on the BTCPay wallet server and also helped the project team fix the bug.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has announced that it will launch smaller bitcoin futures contracts, which has led to a surge in volatility in the current bitcoin contract. This will be done to provide more extensive access to the market for more people who believe in the future of the first cryptocurrency. The CME said that the new contracts in the size of one-tenth of one Bitcoin will be available for trading starting from May 3 this year. The calculations will be made using the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate. "The introduction of micro-bitcoin futures is a direct response to existing demand from a wide range of customers," said Tim McCourt, head of investment products at CME Group.

Another piece of good news this time came from Tether. The company behind the largest USDT stablecoin released the results of an audit by independent firm Moore Cayman. It says that Tether has more than $ 35 billion in various assets in its accounts, providing its USDT token. Let me remind you that some experts in this field have warned that Tether is engaged in printing tokens that are far superior to its assets, and a drop in confidence in this company can seriously hit the cryptocurrency market.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, yesterday's desperate attempt to break above 58,500 and gain a foothold at this level is still failing. However, the upward potential will remain even if there is a downward correction to the area of large support of 54,700, where you can again observe the activity of bitcoin buyers. If the bulls manage to regain control of the resistance of 58,500, then, most likely, the bullish trend will resume, and we will see an update of the historical maximum in the area of 62,000. If the pressure on bitcoin increases and buyers do not show activity in the support area of 54,800, it is better to postpone purchases until the levels of 50,300 and 44,900 are updated.

Moving a little away from the topic of cryptocurrencies, it is worth noting a recent speech by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, who said that her institution could launch a digital currency around the middle of this decade, but provided that it is necessary. The new digital euro will be discussed this summer. "We have to make sure that we do everything right - we have a great responsibility to the Europeans," Lagarde said in an interview with Bloomberg. "Let's be realistic - the entire process of developing and implementing the digital euro may take about four years, and maybe more," Lagarde said. Let me remind you that the European Central Bank conducted an extensive study and received about 8,000 responses to questions as part of the public consultation process on the potential launch of the central bank's digital currency. The study will be sent to the European Parliament, and then the ECB's governing council will decide in the middle of this year whether to continue experimenting in this direction or not.



If you quickly run through the digital currencies of other countries, there is no special breakthrough in this direction yet. Only in 2020, the Bahamas launched a digital currency called the "sand dollar", however, it is more of a "dollar" for a narrow circle of people. Brazil, which has long been working on digitizing its currency, plans to launch it in 2022. Canadian authorities are still working on developing the infrastructure needed for the digital currency, however, there are no plans to launch it yet. As for the Middle Kingdom, China is preparing to launch a pilot digital yuan only in 2022, while Japan is only planning to work on a digital currency.

The best situation is in the United States, where the new digital dollar, which has already been dubbed Fedcoin, can create a lot of problems for the entire banking system of the country, as well as for companies engaged in financial services. It is expected that in July of this year, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will publish their research on this subject and the first results of their work. This was stated last week by James Cunha, who heads this project at the Boston Fed.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 31 - April 01, 2021: Buy above 57,660



The Bitcoin in the morning of the US session is trading above the 21 SMA and within the trend channel on 4-hour charts, targeting 62,500, the +2/8 murray zone.

A few hours ago, we saw that the BTC, has bounced off the bottom of the bullish channel, there is also the SMA of 21 around 57,660, while it keeps consolidating above the SMA of 21, a bullish move is expected with targets at 60,250 and 62,500.

On the contrary, a break below the 21 SMA and the bullish trend channel, a fall is expected to the 200 EMA located at 53370, and if the pressure continues to the 8/8 murray zone of the psychological level of 50,000.

The key is to keep an eye out for Bitcoin to trade above the 21 SMA, a close below could change the bullish outlook for BTC, and there may be a bearish correction.

We recommend continuing to buy the Bitcoin above 576,60.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 31 - April 01, 2021
Resistance (1) $59,709
Resistance (2) $60,777
Resistance (3) $62,093

Support (1) $57,325
Support (2) $56,009
Support (3) $54,887




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin's declining demand from institutional investors and a reversal pattern

Bitcoin is gradually rising, giving more signals about its further dynamics. Meanwhile, interest in cryptocurrencies has declined, which was proved by recent statistics.

On Wednesday, CoinShares released a new report relative to the volume of investments of financial companies in cryptocurrencies and products based on them. It showed that the inflow of investments fell to $ 21 million during the reporting week.

It is noted that the interest of institutional investors in cryptocurrency has significantly dropped. It has reached the October 2020 levels, when Bitcoin was below $ 14,000.

Trading volumes also plunge. So now, the weekly volume of transactions is approximately $ 788 million, against the averaged $ 900 million when this year started. But compared to last year, they remain quite high. In 2020, the average volume was about $ 137 million per day.

Among market participants, capital inflows were positive. Grayscale, which occupies a leading position with a portfolio of $ 40.6 billion, has an inflow of $ 100 thousand. 21Shares received $ 22.6 million in new investments. Meanwhile, CoinShares recorded an outflow of $10.8 million dollars which might be due to profit-taking.

Bitcoin does not lose its popularity among investors. During the week, the inflow to the main cryptocurrency amounted to $ 10.2 million. At the same time, JPMorgan analysts note that retail investors invested more in bitcoin in the first quarter of this year than institutional investors.

What does this data say now? Perhaps, the impulse is fading. This likely means that it will be difficult now to update the historical high.

On the other hand, an interesting picture has developed on the H4 chart. An inverted "head and shoulders" reversal pattern was formed within the local downward trend 61759.10 - 59869.35 - 53225.61 of March 13. Its neck line was broken. Now, if we consider the upward potential, the BTC/USD pair has potential to rise in the area of $ 63,000 per coin. But if you only take about 80% of the head height, then it will be possible to reach the historical high.

Meanwhile, there is an area of 58340.66 - 59517.79 between the red and blue dotted lines, which has not yet been broken though. This indicates that the expected growth scenario after consolidating above it remains relevant.



Therefore, two arguments in favor of Bitcoin's local growth are considered. There are also technical pivots and targets. For now, there is no reason to forecast when the historical high will be reached.




Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 31, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
British regulators have identified the stablecoin market as their main target as part of their efforts to create a legal framework for virtual currencies in the country.

John Glen, the UK finance minister, said stablecoins will be the main focus of the government's cryptocurrency regulatory activity. The politician provided the news at a conference hosted by City & Financial Global on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

For Glen, the UK's decision to prioritize stablecoins over regulating the wider financial market is driven by concerns over monopolies emerging in the market, based on the limited number of participants offering fiat cryptocurrency payment services.

"Some companies have the potential to dominate quickly and displace other players due to their ability to scale and connect to existing online services," Glen noted.

Indeed, the minister's argument reflects the views expressed by financial regulators against the Diem project. Originally referred to as Libra, regulators in various countries have identified Facebook's global presence as an important risk factor for sovereign monetary policy related to the planned project.

Diem, for his part, tried to soften these regulatory guidelines by making changes to the draft. However, it has not yet received the necessary regulatory approval to start rolling out stablecoin.

Glen's comments are another sign that the UK government is focusing on stablecoins as part of its efforts to promote cutting edge innovation in the fintech industry. All of this is happening in connection with the country's withdrawal from the European Union.

In November 2020, Rishi Sunak noted that Brexit was a turning point for the UK financial services industry. Meanwhile, Sunak revealed that the government will prioritize the use of cutting edge fintech innovations such as central bank digital currencies and stablecoins to prove that the country is keeping pace with the emerging digital economy.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 127% Fibonacci extension level located at $1,847 and keeps heading up. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,888, which is the key short-term technical resistance before the ATH at $1,941. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $1,811, but for now the market made an intraday low at the level of $1,786. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,053
WR2 - $1,922
WR1 - $1,793

Weekly Pivot - $1,670
WS1 - $1,525
WS2 - $1,400
WS3 - $1,267


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 31, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin bulls might remain poised to push through fresh highs above $61,780 mark in the next several trading sessions. For the above bullish structure to stay intact, prices must remain above $50,000 mark, going forward. The crypto might produce a corrective drop towards $52,000/53,000 levels, as discussed yesterday before turning higher again.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $58,100 levels at this point in writing ad is expected to drop towards $52,000 mark in the near term. Bulls might be back in control after that and resume its rally towards $62,000 and $65,000 mark. Immediate support is $43,000; while resistance is fixed at $62,000 levels respectively. Bulls remain poised to push through resistance in the next few weeks time.

The religious uptrend that had begun since $3,850 lows in March 2020, remains intact for now. Bitcoin might still have some steam left to print higher highs around $62,000/65,000 zone, before giving in to bears and resuming lower again. Traders might be prepared to buy around $52,000/53,000 zone with risk around $43,000.


Trading plan:
Aggressive traders remain short with stop @ 62,000 and target @53,000

Then turn bullish with stop @ 43,000, target @ 63,000 and 65,000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The price of the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization has exceeded $ 1.1 trillion.

This increase means that the size of the Bitcoin market has exceeded Canada's M1 money supply of $ 1.104 trillion, according to CEIC data.

Bitcoin's market capitalization is also greater than the M1 money supply of the Australian dollar, which currently stands at $ 1,079 trillion. Surpassing Australia and Canada, Bitcoin's market capitalization is once again large enough to make BTC appear in the top ten in the prestigious ranking.

M1 refers to the total supply of physical money in circulation, as well as checks and other forms of demand deposits held by non-banking institutions, public companies and private sector organizations. Bitcoin's entry into the world's top ten M1 money supply charts is another indication of the growth rate of BTC as a currency. In November 2017, Bitcoin was only 32nd.

BTC market capitalization in excess of the M1 money supply in Australia and Canada means that the value of every bitcoin mined so far in US dollars is sufficient to replace the current currency circulation in any country.

Spain and Italy are the only two countries above Bitcoin whose M1 money supply is at the $ 2 trillion mark.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading upward inside of the channel. The next target is seen at the level of $60,100. From there the road towards the ATH located at the level of $61,683 is very short. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $56,795. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $66,270
WR2 - $62,632
WR1 - $58,882

Weekly Pivot - $54,425
WS1 - $50,791
WS2 - $46,464
WS3 - $42,622


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
It may take some time for the European Union to issue the digital currency of the central bank, if it ever does.

In the TV interview, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, outlined the complex decision-making process by which the bank will define the future of the digital Euro.

The ECB will soon publish an analysis of the 8,000 responses received through the digital consultation process on the Euro.

"This will be communicated to the European Parliament, which is one of the key players, as well as to the Commission and the Council with whom we are working," she said.

Based on these consultations, in parallel with parliamentary work, the Governing Council of the ECB will decide by mid-2021 whether the institution will start experimenting with CBDC. After an initial phase of experiments, the council would then carry out a six-month or year-long assessment on whether to introduce digital euros, Lagarde said.

"The whole process - let's be realistic - I think it will take another four years, maybe a little more. But I hope we can keep it within four years. Because it's a technical undertaking, and also a fundamental change, because we need to make sure that we do it right. We owe it to Europeans, they have to feel safe. They need to know that they have a central bank-backed [...] counterpart of a digital banknote. [...] We need to make sure we don't break any system, but we'll improve it. Lagarde said.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit a new all time high at the level of $1,945.90 and keeps going higher. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 161% Fibonacci extension located at $1,963. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $1,811, but for now the market made an intraday low at the level of $1,786. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH with a longer-term target at $2,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,053
WR2 - $1,922
WR1 - $1,793

Weekly Pivot - $1,670
WS1 - $1,525
WS2 - $1,400
WS3 - $1,267


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021