Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 25, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Elon Musk posted another tweet on bitcoin, sending the price up by around $ 2,000:

"Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising".

As with all of Musk's tweets, this had an immediate and significant impact on the cryptocurrency markets. In just over 10 minutes, the price of bitcoin rose from around $ 38,000 to over $ 40,000.

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy's business intelligence, said he held yesterday's meeting with mining companies such as Argo and Hut 8, also attended by Elon Musk. Saylor said miners present at the meeting "agreed to form the Bitcoin Mining Council - to promote transparency in energy consumption and accelerate sustainable development initiatives around the world," although it is not yet clear what exactly this means.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD bounce has been capped at the level of $41,794, which is just above the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at $41,096. The market still trades under the trend line resistance and under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794. Bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish. The next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701. The volatility is subdued and the momentum is now neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $58,682
WR2 - $52,643
WR1 - $41,961

Weekly Pivot - $35,513
WS1 - $25,163
WS2 - $18,359
WS3 - $7,655


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 25, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The charts from Glassnode may suggest that users now prefer to keep their bitcoins closer together and store them in external wallets, rather than depositing them on exchanges with the intention of selling.

The level of deposits on stock exchanges hit the biggest lows in about 4 months. In addition, the number of BTC network users is growing.

The charts provided by the Glassnode data aggregator indicate that investors are optimistic about bitcoin.

According to Chart 7-MA, cryptocurrency exchanges are currently experiencing huge outflows of digital funds, hitting an annual record in this dimension. The last time such large Bitcoin payouts were noticed was March 2020. They reached their lowest level in four months (7-day MA) and at the time of this publication are 2,645,738.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $1,836 towards the technical resistance located at $2,639. The price overbalance level is seen at $2,781, so any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical resistance seen at $2,861. Nevertheless, the bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for beats is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544 if the overbalance level violation fails. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,688
WR2 - $4,131
WR1 - $2,922

Weekly Pivot - $2,341
WS1 - $1,141
WS2 - $579
WS3 - $181


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin has risen in price sharply and it was with the involvement of Elon Musk again



Over the past day, the bitcoin cryptocurrency has risen in price by $5300. This is indeed a lot, but for Bitcoin, it is not so much. After the quotes failed to overcome the $30,500 level twice, many began to have doubts about the ability of the cryptocurrency to continue moving down. However, from our point of view, everything is going exactly according to plan. The cryptocurrency cannot fall by 80-90% of its value in a month and a half! At its peak, it was already losing about 56% of its value in just five weeks. Thus, a further drop in bitcoin quotes right now is probably already unlikely. At least until the $30,500 level is overcome, we definitely do not expect a new fall. In addition, it would be nice for "digital gold" to correct upward, at least to the Kijun-sen line, which lies at the level of $44,600. As for the fundamental background, it does not have a critical impact on bitcoin quotes at the moment, but at the same time, its influence on the cryptocurrency cannot be denied. For example, last night Elon Musk announced via his Twitter that he had a meeting with North American miners about the use of renewable energy. Musk called the meeting promising. There is reason to believe that the bitcoin quotes could rise precisely after it became known about this meeting. And this is even a positive moment for Bitcoin. But in general, the fundamental background remains extremely negative. The main suppliers of the negative background for bitcoin at this time are the United States and China. Recall that, first, they are going to greatly tighten tax legislation, which will now cover all Bitcoin transactions in excess of $10,000, and second, they are going to completely ban mining. Thus, to be honest, it is hardly worth expecting that Elon Musk alone will pull bitcoin from the other world with his social media posts. It can provide temporary support, but it is unlikely that from its current position, bitcoin will again head for $65,000. However, most cryptocurrency millionaires, experts, and other personalities continue to believe that Bitcoin will continue to grow in the long term. We also believe that such an option is quite possible, but probably not in 2021. It is worth recalling that in the history of bitcoin, strong upward trends have already happened at least twice, after which the asset lost up to 80-90% of its value. Therefore, now, most likely, we are witnessing the third such case.



In technical terms, bitcoin dropped twice as close as possible to the level of $30,500 and both times failed to gain a foothold below. Thus, now we are counting on the rise of bitcoin quotes to the critical line and for a certain period of consolidation. Roughly speaking, the market needs to calm down now. Nevertheless, if the bitcoin quotes manage to gain a foothold below the $30,500 level, the token's depreciation may continue.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 25, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin might be drifting sideways since printing lows at $30,000 levels over the last week. The crypto had also tested its recent lows around $31,100 levels early this week before bouncing back. High probability remains that the corrective drop that had begun from $65,000 levels is now complete around $30,000 mark and bulls are ready to push higher above $65,000 levels.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading comfortably above $38,000 levels and bulls might be poised to continue further. Intraday support comes around $33,000-34,000 zone and traders might plan to add more long positions if prices drop. Immediate price support remains around $30,000 mark, while resistance comes in just below $60,000 levels respectively.

A break above $59,000 from here would certainly confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place around $30,000 levels and Bitcoin is heading higher above $65,000 mark respectively. Also note that Bitcoin has bounced off the one-year old trend line support, hence significance of a bullish reversal remains high.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 28,000, target @ 60,000, @ 65,000 at least.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Major altcoins are recovering after the weekend crash: forecasts

The main cryptocurrencies again sank heavily in terms of indicators over the weekend due to the sale, which was arranged by market participants. Because of this, many altcoins have hit three-month lows. However, at the beginning of the new week, when the negative from China was completely won back, the indicators of cryptocurrencies crawled up again. Due to the rapid growth, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 16.5%, reaching $1.62 trillion.

The main altcoin began to recover its positions at a rapid pace and is already approaching a two-week high. ETH has risen in price by 25.5% per day with daily trading volumes of $81 billion, which indicates an increased demand for the asset. Given the narrower dynamics of price changes, the demand for buying a coin is much higher than for selling. Due to the favorable positions for new players to enter the ETH network, as well as the approaching next stage of the update, the ether is getting to the historical maximum faster than others. At the next stage of the update, miners' commissions should decrease, and the network bandwidth may also increase, which promises the asset a multiple increase in quotes. Judging by the horizontal charts, the cryptocurrency will approach the important milestone of $2,500 soon, after which the coin will roll back. ETH will likely try to gain a foothold behind this mark and approach another important milestone of $2,900, where strong market resistance is also concentrated.





The Ripple token, which broke through all the supports and turned out to be at the level of the February minimum, is also beginning to recover its positions. Although the fall in the asset was much stronger than ETH, XRP's growth is only 15% per day. The cryptocurrency is quoted at $0.851, while daily trading volumes remain low, which indicates a greater predisposition of players to other assets. Despite this, cryptocurrencies retain their audience, and now the quotes of the coin are at the most favorable line for the entry of new players. XRP/USD will soon climb to the dangerous $1,000 mark, and the coin will need a powerful impulse to overcome this mark.



LTC is recovering at about the same level as XRP, which has risen in price by 14% over the course of a day. The position of the cryptocurrency was seriously shaken over the weekend, and the coin slipped to 12th place in terms of capitalization with a result of $11 billion. The current rate of price growth suggests that the asset is still not of interest to large investors and is a tool for trading small traders. Soon, the cryptocurrency will focus on the performance of stronger altcoins and will try to overcome the $200 mark and gain a foothold above it.



Even though the market is showing growth, there are all prerequisites for subsequent jumps in the value of cryptocurrencies due to the constant flow of negative news from China. Recently it became known that Huobi is significantly reducing the supply of mining equipment, and some companies for the extraction of crypto assets are beginning to scale back production to move to safer countries. In addition, the last market downturn occurred on May 22-23, and large investors continue to campaign to reduce their presence in the cryptocurrency market in favor of more stable instruments. This is because a series of announcements related to the problems of mining companies will continue until the Chinese authorities seek a compromise with the market or the complete withdrawal of business from this country. Do not forget about the ambiguous position of the US regulator, which continues to butt with Ripple, and also launched an investigation into Musk's influence on the crypto market. Given all this, there is no reason to hope that the current growth in coin performance will be the beginning of an upward trend and, most likely, in the near future, the trend for sudden wide fluctuations in the range of 10% -15% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization will continue.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Hectic weekend, encouraging Monday. What to expect from the main cryptocurrency?

The weekend in the cryptocurrency market has been hectic. Bitcoin has tumbled, pulling altcoins along with it as the Chinese government tightens its crackdown on mining companies.

Plans to attack bitcoin mining and trading in the country became known from the statement of the State Council Committee. A cabinet decision led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He showed that regulatory controls are aimed at mining virtual currency as a way to protect against financial risks.

Some miners, such as Huobi and BTC.TOP responded by saying they would suspend operations in mainland China.

Thus, Huobi announced that it has suspended cryptocurrency mining and the provision of trading services to new clients. Instead, the company intends to focus on providing services overseas.

Mining company BTC.TOP, in announcing the termination of operations in China, cited growing concerns about regulatory requirements. And HashCow has announced that it will not invest in any new BTC mining rigs.

The mining ban was the second blow from China to the cryptocurrency market. But, as we can see, its influence was already as strong as the collapse of the "bloody Wednesday". On Sunday, bitcoin lost 17%, at the moment it went into the area of $31,000 per coin but did not update the minimum of a week.

What's next? The range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24 remains a broad frame for bitcoin. Locally, the level of 38,610.88 was outlined as a resistance, which worked before, and now it may remain the actual resistance. But not a fact, we must observe.

As the target for the downward trend, it is worth keeping in mind the minimum of the "bloody Wednesday" - the level of 29,348.95. But so far, the breakdown of support level 34,708.27 is questionable.

Well, the technical picture can hardly be called clear, except for the "wide frame" - the corridor 28,392.99 - 41,980.24. And locally, the situation is likely to become clearer in the coming days. At least, if no new shocks follow, bitcoin will recover. And it is necessary to wait for the formation of the border of this growth.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for May 24 - 25, 2021: Buy above $37,500



In the early hours of the American session, Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at the 2/8 murray level, a key area. If the BTC remains above this level, there could be a new upward momentum to the zone $43,750.

The crackdown on crypto miners in China - who account for around 70% of the world's supply - is the latest episode in a series of actions that Beijing is taking against the digital currency sector. Some investors and analysts in the digital currency market have claimed that fears about China's regulatory measures could persist.

During the weekend we saw that BTC fell to the 1/8 murray zone, key support, and demonstrating the strength of this level that coincides with the psychological level of $ 30,000. BTC / USD has set a floor for now, and as long as it remains above $30,000, there is a probability that it will hit the psychological level of $50,000.

On the 4-hour BTC chart, you can see a trend line drawn from the beginning of the BTC decline, to the low of $31,000. That line has been broken. If BTC consolidates above that channel bearish, it could be released from the downward pressure and there could be a further bullish momentum to $45,000 and the zone of $50,000 in the short term.

We can also observe the double bottom, which represents a good zone to buy if the price again makes a correction towards this zone.

Our recommendation is to buy the BTC at the current levels above $37,500 with targets at $43,750 and $50,000 zone of the 200 EMA.


Support and Resistance Levels for May 24 – 25, 2021
Resistance (3) 43,676
Resistance (2) 41,595
Resistance (1) 38,465

Support (1) 36,112
Support (2) 34,146
Support (3) 30,397




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Cryptocurrency market analysis on May 24. Bitcoin prepares to rise to $42,000



The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin is absolutely clear on the higher scale. At this time, we see a classic three-wave correction structure a-b-c. If the current wave counting is correct, then at least three upward waves should follow. Two of these three waves have already been built, therefore, we can count on the construction of wave c soon. Targets for this wave can be located near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, which equates to $46,800, or at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to $42,500. But let me remind you that bitcoin is very vulnerable to the news background. If tomorrow, for example, new important information arrives on the market, this may well once again collapse the bitcoin quotes. But the wave counting now speaks of a very likely increase in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. I am not considering alternative wave counting options now, as there are no grounds for this.

The mood in the cryptocurrency market remains depressing. Along with bitcoin, many other cryptocurrencies are also falling in price. Investors are not buying bitcoin now, despite its rather low cost. This means that at this time, there is no faith in a new upward trend section. In addition, even without taking into account the possible actions of Elon Musk or his new statements, which have a strong impact on the entire market, the news background is now full of other important messages that could affect bitcoin in the worst possible way. As previously mentioned, the United States is planning to introduce new tax legislation, which will require all transactions over $10,000 to be submitted to the IRS for review. Thus, many investors can opt out of cryptocurrency transactions, since they will no longer be anonymous in the literal sense of the word.

The US government, led by Joe Biden, believes that many investors are using cryptocurrencies for tax evasion, so they are going to pass new legislation. Of course, it may take more than one month before this law is signed by the president and comes into force. After all, this requires that the US Congress also approve it. Nevertheless, the outlook is rather bleak. The prospects for bitcoin in China are even worse, where they are going to ban any mining of cryptocurrencies altogether. Here, too, everything is at the level of rumors and conversations. But, as they say, there is no smoke without fire. Thus, I can conclude that there is no new reason for investors to buy bitcoin so far. If these bills fail eventually, then the news background for bitcoin will dramatically improve. In the meantime, I really do not see any prospects for the main cryptocurrency above $42,000. And I am considering this option only because the wave counting speaks in its favor.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward structure is complete. However, the movements of recent days have been so fast and strong that it will take some time for the market to clear up. The current wave counting indicates a possible increase, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around $42,500. A failed attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to another strong decline in bitcoin.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum New Swing Higher!

ETH/USD is bullish again after failing to close below a support area. Technically, a rebound is natural after the amazing sell-off. It has found strong support and now it has taken out a dynamic resistance.

It's trading at 2,422.06 versus 1,730 yesterday's low. Now is located right below a static resistance. Registering a valid breakout could signal broader growth. Ethereum dropped by more than 60% since May 12, 2021, but now, the rate seems poised to come back higher.


ETH/USD TURNED TO THE UPSIDE!


I've told you in my previous analyses that the bias remains bearish as long as the price stays below the first warning line (wl1) of the descending pitchfork. ETH/USD has found support on the $1,930 level registering only a false breakdown through 1,800 psychological level and below the upper median line (uml).

Taking out the weekly pivot of 2,472.27 should indicate a potential growth towards 2,800 and 3,000 levels. Being rejected by the weekly pivot or registering only a false breakout could signal that ETH/USD may drop a little towards the 2,200 - 2,000 area.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!

The aggressive breakout through the warning line (wl1) signaled that the downside movement could be over. Still, we cannot exclude a temporary decline from the weekly pivot.

Actually, a temporary decline could help us to catch a new upwards momentum. Personally, I would like to see consolidation and other false breakdowns below the immediate support levels before really developing a new swing higher.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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XRP back tests major broken resistance area.

So far the worst possible scenario for XRP has been confirmed. Price broke below the key support levels of $1,2 and $0.83 and has tested the major support, previous resistance area of $0.65-$0.75. Price today bounced off this break out area and so far we have a bullish back test of broken resistance.



Green rectangle - major support

Red line - support trend line

XRP/USD is now trading above $0.85 again. It was only a one and a half month ago when prices were challenging the green rectangle area and were breaking out. Now price is back testing the support around this level. Bulls need to respect both the upward sloping red support trend line and the horizontal support. Bouncing off the support level is a bullish sign but it is still too early to call a major low in.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
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