Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Cryptocurrency market pauses amid investors' largest losses: ETH, LTC, and XRP approaches important marks

The situation around the cryptocurrency market is gradually stabilizing, the news background is becoming more neutral, and the coins are testing support on important indicators. As a logical result, over the past day, the total capitalization of the crypto market has practically not changed and stopped a step away from the $1.8 trillion mark. Despite the complete wagering of the news of the largest-ever losses of traders in the amount of $14.2 billion, the main altcoins have slowed their growth and sank slightly in price.

Despite the gray information agenda, the ethereum indicators successfully overcame the $2,800 mark and consolidated above it. Over the past day, the cryptocurrency has made a powerful jump and almost reached the figure of $2,900, but rolled back to $2,700, completely winning back the recent growth. According to the current dynamics of price changes, ETH is in the stage of reducing quotes at the level of -1%. To a large extent, this is due to market pressure, as well as sagging daily trading volumes, which stopped at $50 billion. Over the past few days, the situation around Ethereum has become similar to the dynamics of overcoming a difficult mark by bitcoin. The asset retested the threshold of $2,800 and managed to approach $2,900, but in the last attempt on May 27, the cryptocurrency quotes did not reach yesterday's maximum. To continue further growth, ethereum needs to gain a foothold over the difficult area of $2,800-$2,900, where the increased market pressure is concentrated. Taking into account the dynamics of the movement of horizontal charts, as well as the improving news background, the asset will overcome the corridor of $2,800-$2,900 in the next day or two.



A similar situation is observed in the Ripple token, which broke the $1 mark on May 26, but is experiencing certain problems with the upward movement. Most likely, this is due to the recent news about record losses of traders around the world. The news feed caused local skepticism in the market, which directly affected XRP quotes and daily trading volumes, which fell to $6.3 billion. However, there is no reason to worry, as the cryptocurrency confidently holds the $1.2 mark, which indicates high market support at this point. In addition, the recent drop was played back by players within a few hours, which indicates interest in the crypto asset. Nevertheless, this interest is cyclical in nature, which is well tracked by jumps in daily trading volumes. There is no doubt that soon, the cryptocurrency will continue to move to the next difficult milestone in the region of $1.4.



All altcoins on May 27 show similar dynamics of changes in quotes, affected by the unpleasant news about the losses of market players. However, the Litecoin situation remains more tense. The crypto asset, like its more venerable colleagues, quickly recovered its usual indicators in the region of $200, rising in price by 4%. At the same time, LTC continues to rapidly lose its audience and has already fallen to 15th place in terms of capitalization with a result of $13 billion. The target audience of the coin is actively moving to other, less hyped, but promising altcoins.



In general, the situation around the cryptocurrency market has stabilized, the coins almost completely played out the problem period during the collapse of bitcoin. At this stage, there are all the prerequisites for further growth, as evidenced by the positive news background. For example, the payment giant PayPal will develop an algorithm for withdrawing cryptocurrency to third-party wallets. In addition, the well-known billionaire Carl Icahn spoke positively about crypto assets and is considering investing in the market in the amount of $1.5 billion. The SEC also received two more applications for approval of bitcoin ETFs, which in the long term will strengthen the institutionalization of the market. Given all this, there are more and more reasons for optimism in the market, the trial between the SEC and Ripple will soon end, and the ETH network update is coming, which will greatly increase interest in the market.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Cryptocurrency market analysis on May 27. Iran bans cryptocurrency mining until



The wave counting of the 4-hour chart of the bitcoin cryptocurrency is starting to get a little more complicated. Yesterday, the cryptocurrency attempted to rise to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, which I consider to be the closest targets. However, from the very morning of May 26, a new internal downward wave began to form, within which the main cryptocurrency had already lost $3,000 in value. Thus, at the moment, a series of waves a-b-c cannot be considered complete, and, most likely, it will take on a more extended and complex form than I currently assume. After a sharp drop in bitcoin quotes, the market will take some time to recover in any case. Moreover, at this time, the news background is clearly not conducive to new purchases of bitcoin. Thus, a pause is needed. And during this pause, bitcoin can build complex corrective structures or the usual a-b-c series, but at the same time, I believe, it will continue to remain in the range of $32,000-$42,000. That is, in the coming weeks, one should hardly expect a new sharp drop or, conversely, a strong increase.

The news background for bitcoin remains very depressing. The markets have not yet had time to digest the information that China is going to completely ban the mining of cryptocurrencies, when news from Iran immediately came, where the country's authorities announced a complete ban on the mining of cryptocurrencies for three months. This decision is due to the lack of electricity in the country due to dry weather and increased consumption in other areas. According to the President of the country, Hassan Rouhani, the ban on mining applies to both authorized miners and unauthorized ones. It is not yet known whether the ban will be lifted in September.

At the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk held a meeting with American mining companies to discuss reducing greenhouse gas emissions from mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The parties agreed to cooperate in this direction, which for some time even provided support for bitcoin quotes. Although, not for long. The negative news background still prevails at this time.

There are some other news in the cryptocurrency environment right now. The markets are trying to revive bitcoin by all means, but the actions, statements, and comments of several hundred investors and traders cannot outweigh the much larger news from the United States, China, Iran, Turkey, and so on. The trend can be traced very well: the authorities of many countries are determined to tighten the regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere as much as possible or to ban it altogether. Let me remind you that the central banks of many countries have repeatedly warned that trading in cryptocurrencies is unsafe, very risky. It seems that bitcoin is now entering a phase where central banks have begun to move from warnings to concrete actions. Naturally, with the help of the authorities.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD upward signal with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new decline in bitcoin, but I hope that in the coming year, the cryptocurrency will build complex corrective structures and will not resume the upward trend.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Goldman Sachs: Ethereum has every chance to surpass Bitcoin



As we said, the fundamental background for bitcoin has remained extremely weak lately. By and large, all market participants are now awaiting a final decision from the governments of China and the United States. Recall that China plans to ban mining, and some mining pools have already begun to assemble their equipment to move to the countries of North America. In the U.S., however, they are going to introduce a rule of mandatory transfer of information to the Internal Revenue Service about all bitcoin transactions over $10,000. Thus, the second-largest economy in the world is going to tighten the rules for the entire cryptocurrency environment, while the first-largest economy will establish strict control over all large transactions.

Naturally, the popularity of bitcoin, and with it, all other cryptocurrencies, is falling. Since bitcoin was originally popular for being free from control from the governments and central banks, because of its anonymity. However, many experts continue to believe that bitcoin will only continue to grow in the future. This opinion is shared, in particular, by Mike McGlone, a strategist at Bloomberg. He is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will continue in the future, but at this time it can really be under pressure due to the high consumption of electricity, most of which is also "not good" for the environment. McGlone also noted that bitcoin mining is becoming cleaner and greener, and the coin itself continues to target the $100,000 mark.

At the same time, one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs, admitted that Ethereum in many respects looks much more attractive than bitcoin. The bank believes that "ether" can become the number one cryptocurrency store of value in the world. The bank's case is that the ethereum network is a decentralized finance vehicle that uses a variety of technologies that replace banking products such as loans or borrowings. Simply put, some of the functions of banks can be easily transferred to the ethereum cryptocurrency. Naturally, so far only in theory. Experts also note that new applications can be created on the basis of the ethereum platform, as well as conclude smart contracts.

Recall that this is not the first time that experts talk about ethereum more flatteringly than about bitcoin. Among other, higher prospects of ether, note its lower cost, greater growth potential, greater convenience in calculations, lower fees, higher transaction speed on the network. At the time of writing this article, ether is trading at $2,700 per coin, it has recovered from the fall almost identical to bitcoin. Thus, the correlation between the two most well-known cryptocurrencies remains high. At least for the time being.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for May 27 - 28, 2021: Buy above $39,500

In the early hours of the American session, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading with a slight relief of the downward pressure, after having broken the downward pressure line, and staying above the support of 2/8 of murray around of $37,500.

Bitcoin BTC / USD fell to $ 31,251 last week, more than 50% below its annual high of $ 64,895 that it registered in mid-April.

Some of the reasons for this fall are Elon Musk's decision not to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment to buy Tesla electric cars, the intensified debate about the heavy energy consumption that Bitcoin mining requires, the prohibition of China to its financial institutions to offer services related to cryptocurrency assets, as well as online payment companies.

Without a doubt we are facing a phase of consolidation of BTC that could last a good time. The crypto could be trading between the levels of $30,000 to $50,000 in the medium term.



In the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has broken the symmetric triangle and now remains above the SMA of 21. As long as it is located above this area, the bias will be bullish in the short term for BTC to $43,750.

The area where the demand will be strongest is the 3/8 murray level located at $43,750. The price could rise to the psychological level of $50,000. At this level, a strong resistance is located in the area of the 200 EMA, so this will be a very strong top, as we expect a downward movement at this level again. Any rally above this zone will likely be short-lived.

Our recommendation is to continue buying as long as it remains above the 21 SMA and above the 2/8 murray located at $37,500 with targets at $43,750 and $50,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for May 27 – 28, 2021

Resistance (3) 43,676
Resistance (2) 42,359
Resistance (1) 40,525

Support (1) 38,467
Support (2) 37,113
Support (3) 35,535




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin's large institutional investors return to gold. What to expect next?

Bitcoin has stumbled on a 200-day moving average and cannot go back beyond it. This is a very serious problem, since from a technical point of view, a very powerful downward trend is forming, which in 2018 led to the crypto winter for almost three years.

But before we talk about the prospects of bitcoin, I would like to say a few words about the Bank of England and how they treat digital innovations, of course, related to cryptocurrencies.



In a recent speech, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey raised concerns about digital currencies, saying there is a danger of being "caught up" in financial innovation that could pose a huge number of problems in the future. "I don't want to be seen as a Luddite," Bailey said in response to Treasury questions in parliament. "To be honest, I am skeptical about crypto assets because they are dangerous and cause a huge bubble."

Bailey said that financial innovation is good for the economy, but investors need to remain vigilant about assets like cryptocurrencies. It is worth noting that this month, the Governor of the Bank of England has touched upon the topic of cryptocurrencies and digital assets for the second time, and this clearly makes it clear that the regulator is serious about the current situation. Bailey also oversees banking regulation and is responsible for assessing threats to economic stability. "I'm afraid that cryptocurrency and currency are two words that do not suit me," he said at a press conference held back on May 6 this year. The Governor of the Bank of England is firmly convinced that cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value.

Many investors have long understood what is happening now. The unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus that has poured into the global economy, pushing up the prices of various types of assets - from stocks to real estate, goods, and cryptocurrencies, all create bigger problems for the future of the global economy. And talking about bitcoin and the fact that it has no intrinsic value is the same as talking about how promising the yield on US Treasury bonds looks now, which are not even ahead of inflation in the country.

Digital currencies, which are currently being developed in many countries, remain an equally interesting topic. The US Federal Reserve is expected to publish a paper very soon outlining their own research on central bank digital currencies. The Chinese authorities, who are now actively fighting against mining and cryptocurrencies, are also developing their own digital yuan, which may appear in the near future. But it is unlikely that such measures will put significant pressure on bitcoin and other altcoins. Most likely, this is a threat more for stayblecoins, to which the US regulator is showing increasing interest.

As for the recent major drop in bitcoin by 31.1%, it was the fourth largest drop in cryptocurrency on record. A report from JPMorgan indicated that large institutional investors are ditching bitcoin in favor of gold, which has generated a lot of discussions and raised a number of questions about institutional support for the cryptocurrency. This was the main focus of traders this year, after Elon Musk was the first to announce his purchase of bitcoin.

More recently, the US Treasury announced that it would require stricter cryptocurrency compliance with the IRS, which could discourage new investors from entering the market. Be that as it may, while the cryptocurrency market is in disgrace, and it is possible that we will see new lows before the situation stabilizes.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it is clearly visible how a large position accumulates in the area of 36,300-41,100. The further direction of the trading instrument depends on the direction in which this channel will be broken. The fact that bitcoin hasn't been able to get its 200-day moving average back for quite some time creates additional problems. If the area of 41,100 is broken, then we can follow the strengthening of the rate to the 46,700 mark and the return to the maximum of 52,000. If the level of 36,200 is broken, then, most likely, we will again go to test the minimum of 29,000, the breakout of which will quickly collapse the rate to the support levels of 25,700 and 21,600.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for May 27,.2021 - Upside exhaustion and potential for drop towards $37.000

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading upwards but I found exhaustion and potential for the downside rotation.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities due to the overbought condition and exhaustion.

Downside targets are set at the price of $37.200 and $36.600.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition and the fresh bear cross, which is good confirmation for the downside movement.

Additionally, there is the rejection of the upper Bollinger line on the hourly time-frame.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ralph Shedler, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin still continues to oscillate within a triangle and needs to break out of $43,000 mark at least to push higher. The crypto might want to print a shallow low below $30,000 mark, before resuming its rally. Hence, until prices stay below $43,000-44,000 mark potential remains to test $28,500 lows, before resuming higher above $65,000 mark.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $39,700 levels at this point in writing and is expected to drop towards $33,000-34,000 zone as Wave d of the potential triangle consolidation unfolds. Immediate price support is around $30,000 mark, while resistance is at $43,000, followed by $59,000 and higher respectively.

The overall uptrend still remains intact as prices bounced off $30,000 levels earlier, right at the one year old trend line support. But a consistent break below the trend line and subsequently below $28,500 will change the structure to bearish and Bitcoin could drop further towards $15,000 levels, going forward.


Trading plan:
Buy again @ 33,000-34,000, stop @ 28,000, target above @65,000.

Good luck!






Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ripple 1.1 Psychological Breakout

Ripple is back above 1.0 psychological level and it could challenge the immediate resistance again. The price has signaled that the buyers are still strong invalidating a deeper decline.

As you already know, XRP/USD slipped lower in the short term, but the decline was only a temporary one. Techncially, the price of Ripple could drop again if it makes a new false breakout above the weekly pivot point (1.0487) level.

Personally, I would like to see a temporary decline because we could search for great long opportunities.


XRP/USD ATTRACTIVE FOR BUYERS!



Ripple jumped above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (UML) but the weekly pivot point (1.0487) represents strong static resistance. Jumping and stabilizing above 1.0710 high may signal more gains towards the 150% Fibonacci line.

The descending pitchfork's 150% Fibonacci line represents a critical resistance. A valid breakout above it could really announce and validate a strong leg higher ahead. Still, in the short term, XRP/USD may drop again to test and retest the immediate support levels before jumping higher.


RIPPLE FORECAST!
Jumping and closing above 1.0710 high could signal more gains towards the 150% Fibonacci line and up to 1.3 level.

A temporary decline towards 61.8% and down to 0.8 level could also bring a new long opportunity. XRP/USD is traded right below resistance, so we cannot exclude a temporary decline.

Only a valid breakout through the 150% Fibonacci line could really confirm a strong swing higher.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Comparing the recent declines with the same events in 2018, senior strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co found that the market situation is now much more flexible and solid than it was three years ago.

Comparison of market adjustments from 2018 and 2021

What Elon Musk and Tesla started a few weeks ago and received support from China and their negative attitude towards the cryptocurrency sector contributed to the most sharp correction on the market this year.

In a matter of days, bitcoin dropped from $ 50,000 to $ 30,000, and most altcoins fell even lower. While the above-mentioned reasons can be seen as triggers for a price collapse, the situation worsened as over-leveraged traders began liquidating their positions.

These adverse events left the door open to speculation about the current state of the market. One of the last to take on the task was Josh Younger, head of JPM's interest rate derivatives strategy. An analyst quoted by Bloomberg outlined the parallels of the recent decline in the cryptocurrency market with what happened in early 2018, when it actually started the year-long bear market.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair had been rejected from the technical resistance seen at $2,861 and the bears had pushed the price towards the level of $2,639. The market still trades inside of the main descending channel and the breakout above the upper channel line is the most important breakout for the bulls right now. The bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,201.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,688
WR2 - $4,131
WR1 - $2,922

Weekly Pivot - $2,341
WS1 - $1,141
WS2 - $579
WS3 - $181


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Former cryptocurrency Carl Icahn, founder of Icahn Enterprises, said in an interview that he intends to enter the cryptocurrency market in a "big way" - teasing the market with reports of a cryptocurrency investment opportunity worth around $ 1.5 billion.

Icahn is an investor and former advisor in the Trump administration. In 2018, Icahn said in a TV interview that cryptocurrencies were "utterly ridiculous" and added, "Maybe I'm too old for them, but I wouldn't touch these things."

In his May 26 speech, Icahn explained that he was currently considering a large investment. He noted that his entry into the market "would not mean buying just a few coins":

"[...] a lot for us is a billion dollars, one and a half billion dollars ... I won't say exactly."

Icahn joins a growing list of other billionaires who have changed their minds about cryptocurrencies in the last 12 months. When asked about the cryptocurrencies he is watching in a special way, the billionaire is not inclined to overdo it. He stressed that:

"Many of the cryptocurrencies issued today will not survive, but we believe that cryptocurrency in one form or another can stay with us for longer. To be clear, we have never bought any cryptocurrency, although we are researching this topic."

Icahn believes that cryptocurrencies that do not at least serve as store of value will be driven out of the market because "there must be some form of value security" to survive.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has failed to break through the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at $41,096 and reversed lower. The market still trades under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794, so bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish. The next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701. The volatility is subdued and the momentum is now neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $58,682
WR2 - $52,643
WR1 - $41,961

Weekly Pivot - $35,513
WS1 - $25,163
WS2 - $18,359
WS3 - $7,655


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021