Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 23, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
While Bitcoin is too volatile to be money, it can be a "substitute for gold," said the chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Speaking on Monday at an event hosted by Bank for International Settlements, Jerome Powell responded to questions about cryptocurrency. When asked if he believed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to pose a threat to financial stability, Powell cited known arguments that had long come from older financial data.

Crypto assets are very volatile and therefore not really useful or trustworthy as a store of value and not backed by anything, he stated, continuing:

"They're more of a speculative asset, so they're not particularly used as a currency. Basically, they're a substitute for gold, not for the dollar."

Powell's words provide some of the most direct Fed views of Bitcoin in recent times, and are based on the outlook offered in 2019. They also appear weeks after new Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clarified her concerns about decentralized cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair is slowly approaching the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $52,213. The technical support at the level of $53,290 had been broken and the bearish pressure is visible. On the other hand, the bulls might still try to rally above the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $58,223, so any breakout above this line will be considered as bullish with a target at $60,000 and above. The momentum is now weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook. The longer term trend is still up and intact.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $68,853
WR2 - $64,700
WR1 - $61,327

Weekly Pivot - $57,323
WS1 - $54,318
WS2 - $49,983
WS3 - $46,876


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 23, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin slips to $52,900 levels today and we are not surprised. A drop further below $52,600 would confirm that a meaningful top is in place at $61,781 mark over the last week and also bears are back in control. The crypto would be a good case to be sold on rallies thereafter with risk above $62,000 mark. Aggressive traders might have initiated shorts already as suggested yesterday from around $57,000 levels.

The crypto has pulled off day's lows and is seen trading around $54,400 mark but remains vulnerable for yet another drop below $52,600 at least. Immediate resistance remains fixed at $61,781 levels, while support comes in around $43,300 levels respectively. If a lower high is already in place at $60,000 levels, the next short term projected target could be towards $43,000 levels, going forward.

As discussed yesterday, the overall uptrend continues to remain intact for now and Bitcoin should be well supported around $37,700 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of entire rally between $3,850 and $61,780 mark. Only a sustained drop below $24,000/25,000 and subsequently below the trend line support will be encouraging for bears to continue further.


Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop @ 62,000 target @ 37,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Analysis of BTC/USD; traders incur huge losses due to sharp fall of BTC/USD

Over the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency market has been on the verge of a new rally. Bitcoin has reached a historical high. Other assets have also approached their maximum levels. There was every reason to believe that the crypto market would soon rally or at least show slow but long-term growth. However, instead, the main cryptocurrencies went down, which led to serious losses of retail investors.

Bitcoin dropped the most, hitting the level of $53.000. Over the past day, investors who traded the BTC/USD pair lost $978 million amid an 8% slump in bitcoin. Trades of more than 235,000 speculators were closed on crypto exchanges around the world. The biggest loss of a trader amounted to $10 million. Those who opened long margin positions on the EUR/USD pair also incurred significant losses. Investors lost about $247 million due to a decline in ether.



The crypto market shrank by 6% amid the sharp drop in cryptocurrencies. Now the total capitalization of the crypto market is $ 1.7 trillion. The daily trading volume, as of March 23, comes in at $ 192 billion. The share in daily operations on the BTC/USD pair decreased to 58.2%. Despite the considerable slump in the value of cryptocurrencies, the fundamental background remains positive. For example, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, "Bitcoin is lacking key ingredients that would make it a useful currency. As a result, the cryptocurrency is essentially more of a substitute for gold than the dollar. Crypto assets are highly volatile." Coinbase has completed the listing of Cardano and announced support for crypto assets on its platform. Now the maximum number of digital coins on Coinbase has increased to 43.

Despite the positive news, the crypto market was overwhelmed by another wave of correction. The BTC/USD pair suffered the most. Retail traders were ready to continue to open long margin positions as bitcoin had been hovering around the psychological level of $ 60,000 for more than a week. It was expected to add gains. However, BTC faced the consequences of the February rally. The deteriorating economic situation due to the pandemic, the low interest of institutional investors, and fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market delivered a severe blow to the BTC/USD pair.



Another wave of correction pushed bitcoin down to the level of $55,000. If last week speculators expected BTC to break above $60,000 for further growth, now BTC is likely to get stuck at a lower level of $55,000. Despite the positive fundamental background and small investments of Thornton Place, the BTC/USD pair lacks any derivers in order to break above the important psychological level. Most likely, the pair will continue to fluctuate around $53,000-55,000. In addition, due to significant losses, the trading volume of the BTC/USD pair in the total market turnover will continue to plummet in the next few days.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 23,.2021 - First downside target has been reached at the price of $53.000. Potential for test of next downside target at $48.750

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that sellers are in control today as I expected yesterday and that BTC reached our first yesterday's target at $53,000.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside target at the price of $48,750.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $58,000

Support level: $48,750





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 23 - 24, 2021: Sell Below 56,250



The Bitcoin BTC is trading under bearish pressure below the 21 SMA, and is being sustained above the 200 EMA located at 53.122. preventing a change of scenery.

We also notice a downtrend channel, which is prevailing. and we could expect a break of the level of 53,000 and expect a fall to the 8/8 area of murray and the Piscological level of 50,000.

Our recommendation is to sell below the SMA of 21 located at 57,000 and below the 56,250 +1/8 of murray.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 19 - 22, 2021

Resistance (1) $57,323
Resistance (2) $58,226
Resistance (3) $59,366

Support (1) $53,981
Support (2) $52,976
Support (3) $51,441




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum price decline activated head and shoulders bearish pattern

Ethereum has broken below the support of $1,720-$1,700. Price has activated the head and shoulders bearish pattern with target of $1,500. Price has moved as low as $1,648 today but it is now bouncing towards the broken support which is now resistance.



Green line - support trend line broken

Yellow lines - Head and shoulders pattern

Red line - resistance

Red rectangle - neckline support

ETH/USD is bouncing towards the neckline which is now resistance. This is an important back test of the break down. A rejection at $1,700-$1,720 will open the way for a move for a new short-term low below $1,648. The head and shoulders target is at $1,500. Major resistance is at the red trend line at $1,827. As we explained in previous posts, as long as price is below this level Ethereum is vulnerable to a deep pull back.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Crypto market crashes as the rate of US dollar increases



The crypto market experienced its second day of losses after nearly breaking records last weekend. In fact, according to the latest data, the global market capitalization fell by 3.4%, reaching $ 1.75 trillion. And, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 4.5%, struggling to hold above $ 54,000.

What is the reason? Apparently, the evident rise in USD has impacted cryptocurrencies very negatively. Investors are resorting to the US currency amid accelerating economic recovery.

Aside from that, the trade conflict between the EU, US and China also appears to be affecting investor sentiment. Most likely, it will create increasingly harsh conditions for Bitcoin.

But the coronavirus refuses to go away. In fact, many are convinced that another wave will shake the world, and that the return to normalcy will be delayed for a few more months. Will this benefit cryptocurrencies? We are not certain. But the further growth of Bitcoin will depend on whether it can continue to show its growth potential to investors, especially to those who are eager to see positive price movements in cryptocurrencies.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Will the trend of BTC/USD change?

Bitcoin is declining, but its upward trend continues to be relevant. Meanwhile, research shows that institutional investors have begun reducing their investment on the main cryptocurrency, while in contrast, the small ones continue to buy it.

CoinShares, a digital asset management company, stated that institutional investors have cut back their Bitcoin investments. For the period of March 15-20, their investments amounted to $ 99 million, against their total amount of $ 242 million a week earlier. And this is despite the fact that at the end of January, the inflow of investments in crypto funds from major market participants reached its record of $ 1.3 billion in one week.

It is worth noting that there was a decline in demand on the part of American companies, but companies from Europe and Canada increased their positions. At the same time, it was noted that the total volume of investments in cryptocurrency funds by institutional investors reached 57 billion US dollars.

As for investment products for the main cryptocurrency, trading volumes declined from $ 1.1 billion to $ 713 million last week. Nevertheless, interest in Bitcoin products remains high – $ 85 million was invested in them, while Ethereum funds and trusts accounted for $ 8 million.

Glassnode's analysts also present an interesting study. They noticed that the holders of the leading digital assent in the amount of 10-100 bitcoins and 1000-10000 bitcoins began to reduce their stocks.

Huge Bitcoin owners of 1,000-10,000 have lowered reserves by 37 thousand BTC, while small owners of 10-100 have also reduced theirs by 56 thousand BTC.

On the other hand, an intermediate group of investors, owning 100-1000 bitcoins, showed themselves by increasing their portfolios. Contrary to the above-mentioned, they raised the reserves to 331 thousand BTC.

There is another interesting class of bitcoin holders that is increasing their volume. These are investors who own less than 1 BTC, whose total share accounts for 5.20% of all mined Bitcoins. The growth in the number of such investors sharply rose after the Bitcoin drop in March last year.

Now, let's discuss the technical part. Looking at the daily chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin has reached the upward support level of 29241.46 - 43,033.38 - 58340.66 on January 27. The bullish or bearish forecast for the BTC/USD pair will depend on whether the current price rebounds from this border or breaks through it. However, even if we test the strength of the trend support line, it will be too early to say that there is a shift in the trend. Thus, it will be necessary to wait for the actual breakdown, which may not happen in just a day.



As for the H4 chart, there is a formation of a correctional downward trend 61,759.10 - 59,869.35 - 53,225.61 from March 13. So far, its support has not yet been reached. However, based on the Fibo expansion, there are prerequisites for a local price return to the level of 100.

In the event of a price downward pullback from it, we can develop the local downward trend and the support for the daily upward trend will be broken. But if the resistance level of 100 by Fibo Expansion is broken, the price of BTC/USD pair may recover further towards the level of 58,340.66, marked with a red dotted line.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Selling Pressure Intensifying?

Bitcoin dropped and stands at 54,461 level after failing to take out the immediate resistance levels. The bullish outlook is still intact as the price continues to stay above the short-term uptrend line.

Technically, a new lower low and a breakdown through the uptrend line signal a corrective phase which may be normal after reaching a fresh all-time high of 61,788. Fundamentally, Bitcoin could drop in the short term after the rumors that India's government plans to ban cryptocurrencies in the country.


BTC/USD CORRECTIVE PHASE?


BTC/USD dropped after registering a downside breakout from a minor symmetrical triangle and after failing to make a valid breakout above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml).

The price has found support right on the 53,000, above S1 (53,509) and 53,221 former lower low and now is struggling to get back higher. Technically, it could register a minor rebound before challenging the uptrend line.

A valid breakdown through 53,221 and below the uptrend line may signal a larger drop in the short term within the descending pitchfork's body. The immediate resistance is seen at the upper median line (uml), only a valid breakout above it validates a further increase and invalidates a corrective phase.


BITCOIN TIPS & FORECAST!

A bearish closure under 53,000 today's low and violating the uptrend line signals further drop towards the S1 (49,659) and S3 (46,116) levels.

The descending pitchfork's median line (ml) could still attract the price as long as BTC/USD is traded under the upper median line (uml).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio predicted a ban on cryptocurrency investments in the United States



Ray Dalio is the founder of one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Recently, he expressed his opinion that investments in bitcoin and gold can be banned by the US authorities. According to Dalio, the US authorities will raise taxes in the future, and the higher they are, the more people and companies will try to run into cryptocurrencies to avoid paying them. First of all, we are talking about raising taxes for the rich and for large companies, which has already been announced by US President Joe Biden. According to his initiative, which he voiced during the election race, taxes should be raised so that the country can raise funds for recovery from the coronavirus crisis. At the moment, a new package of stimulus measures for the US economy in the amount of 2-4 trillion dollars is being discussed. And one of the sources of funding for this package will be just an additional fiscal burden on rich people and large companies. "Policymakers who are short of money will raise taxes and won't like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storehold of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.)," Dalio said. There is also an opinion that the ban on cryptocurrencies may be introduced due to the desire of the US government to increase investments in the stock and debt markets. In any case, this is what we have talked about many times: bitcoin is very much hindering the authorities of any country and, in particular, the American ones. All these rumors grow like mushrooms, not from scratch. More and more experts point out that any decentralized currency that is not controlled by the central bank is a "bone in the throat" for the state. However, the vast majority of financiers recommend not to worry about this. If there will be a ban on cryptocurrencies, it will be gradual and for the entire industry at once, and not for individual investments in bitcoin or other tokens. Experts also note that a ban on investing in cryptocurrencies can undermine faith in the financial system and the state, as well as significantly increase the demand for digital assets, so it is unlikely. Analysts believe that the actions of the US government and the Federal Reserve will be aimed at expanding the tax base in order to increase revenues from the cryptocurrency segment to the state treasury. At the same time, it is unlikely that the government will give up trying to fully control the cryptocurrency segment.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has started a new round of decline, but so far it is holding above the first important support-the Kijun-sen line, which lies at the level of $52,300. A rebound from it can trigger a new round of upward movement. Fixing the price lower can lead to the long-awaited strong round of correction of the number one cryptocurrency in the world.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
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