Cryptocurrency Analysis

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A stimulus package from Joe Biden and the US government will go to the purchase of bitcoin Relevance up to 13:00 2021-03-19 UTC+8



It has already been mentioned in previous articles that the number of retail investors in bitcoin is growing in 2021. More and more private traders want to join the upward trend, but isn't it too late? In recent weeks, Bitcoin has become more expensive with great difficulty, and there is almost no news fueling the demand for it. Moreover, according to the analysis of all the previous movements of Bitcoin over the past 13 years, the upward trend does not usually last long. In our case, it has been going on for a year, which suggests that it will soon end. Will its completion coincide with a new stimulus package from the US government? This week, Americans will begin to receive checks of $1,400 from Congress and the president. According to a survey conducted by the Japanese investment bank Mizuho, about 40% of US citizens plan to spend the funds received from the state on investments, and half of the respondents plan to buy bitcoin. More accurate figures show that half of those 40% are ready to buy bitcoin, but for an amount not exceeding 20-25% of the received amount. This suggests that the cryptocurrency market may soon flood from 30 to 60 billion dollars (in total, Americans will receive about $380 billion from the state). This, of course, is not such a large amount for the number one cryptocurrency, since its capitalization already exceeds one trillion dollars. Nevertheless, the additional influx of "hamsters" can have a certain impact on the rate of "digital gold" very strongly. Goldman Sachs analysts also report that households will be the main investors in stocks and other assets in 2021. Despite the pandemic and the crisis, more than one and a half trillion dollars have accumulated in the accounts of Americans, which will begin to be spent as the economy recovers. And the American economy is recovering at a really high pace, which allows us to hope for a rapid flow of money to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

At the same time, the latest round of bitcoin correction is explained very simply. Researchers tracked the movement of 18,000 bitcoins to the wallets of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange on March 15. Such a large volume of sales of bitcoin caused the number one cryptocurrency to fall by 10% at once. Also recently, there are rumors that miners will soon start selling large volumes of mined bitcoins, as they want to make a profit while the cryptocurrency is on top. Earlier, it was reported that miners in the last year are in no hurry to part with the extracted coins immediately after receiving them. This phenomenon was caused by the strong growth of bitcoin, but now they believe that the most appropriate time has come. All these messages do not add optimism to the BTC quotes.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 18, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Morgan Stanley will offer its clients access to bitcoin. According to the internal note of the banking institution, the product will be made available by Galaxy Digital and FS NYDIG.

With custody of assets in excess of $ 4 trillion, Morgan Stanley became the first major bank in the US to launch a product that offered cryptocurrency exposure to its clients. Sources cited by CNBC said the decision was made after Morgan Stanley succumbed to pressure from his clients.

Access to BTC through Morgan Stanley funds will be available to people with over 5 million dollars. Morgan Stanley says BTC is only suitable for people with "aggressive risk tolerance." Even these customers will be able to spend "only" 2.5% of their funds on cryptocurrencies.

Therefore, the minimum investment in funds will be $ 25,000 for the Galaxy Bitcoin Fund LP and FS NYDIG Select Fund. Galaxy Institutional Bitcoin Fund LP will require customers to invest at least $ 5 million.

Morgan Stanley also argues that bitcoin is now at the right time to become "an investable asset class." The report is cautious when it comes to direct recommendations for clients looking to get exposure to cryptocurrency. However, the document states that BTC may be at a critical time in adoption.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken through the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $58,233 and made a local high at the level of $59,414. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $57,097 and if this level is violated, then the corrective cycle might expand towards the next technical support seen at $49,422. The next intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $60,609. Please notice the market keep making higher highs on the daily time frame despite the bearish divergence building since the level of $41,917.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $77,718
WR2 - $70,065
WR1 - $65,682

Weekly Pivot - $57,463
WS1 - $53,537
WS2 - $45,060
WS3 - $41,147


Trading Recommendations:

The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 18, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

According to the official, the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, i.e.EEU, tried to work out a common position on cryptocurrency regulations.

Iya Malkina, deputy chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission Council, said EEU member states did not support the recent initiative for a unified cryptocurrency regulatory framework within the EU.

In today's press briefing, Malkina explained that the Eurasian Economic Commission has received several proposals to synchronize regulations in the Blockchain and cryptocurrency industries. The ECE also recommended the development of a basic, single regulatory framework within the EEU with a single glossary and rules. "However, this proposal was not supported," the official said.

Malkina said that the ECE has been actively analyzing the impact of cryptocurrencies on the macroeconomic stability of EEU member states since December 2017.

The EEU is an economic union of countries located in Eastern Europe and Western and Central Asia, with member states such as Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia and others. The union was established in 2014 to facilitate the free movement of goods and services and to conduct common policies in the macroeconomic sphere.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the narrow zone located between the levels of $1,720 - $1,816 to the upside and made a new local high at the level of $1,847. Despite that move, the consolidation zone is very close to the lower channel line that was recently violated and now bulls are not quite able to come back up inside the channel. Moreover, the breakout has ended with a Doji candlestick, so the bears are still defending the channel. If the price will go back to the consolidation zone, then the false breakout to the upside will be invalidated and there will be more chances for a bearish breakout to the downside.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,266
WR2 - $2,113
WR1 - $1,975

Weekly Pivot - $1,820
WS1 - $1,716
WS2 - $1,552
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:

The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Cryptocurrency market results for March 17, 2021

Cryptocurrencies remain within the framework of the sideways trends formed over two days. The decline after the weekend was caused by the fixation of long positions. The news that India wants to impose a ban on cryptocurrencies also put pressure on the market. And now the sideways dynamics in narrow corridors can be regarded as a set of positions before the next directional movement of digital currencies.

Bitcoin continues to trade the 100% Fibonacci extension level in both directions. The trading range of the main cryptocurrency on the chart is indicated by a green rectangle with the boundaries of 53225.61 - 57176.73. Now, the price of BTC/USD is in the middle of this corridor, so it can move to any of its borders. The situation with the further direction of bitcoin will be clarified by the breakdown of one of the sideways borders and consolidation above or below it.



Bitcoin Cash continues to trade in the range of 508.94 - 538.35. By the evening, the quotes went down to its lower limit. From the current position, it is possible both to restore the pair in the sideways direction, and to try to break through the support of 508.94. In the second scenario, the target to the south will be the support level of 465.48.



Ripple remains in a narrow sideways position under the resistance level of 0.4539 (blue horizontal). The lower limit of the trading zone is the level of 0.4532, marked with a red dotted line. If the price manages to break through it, the pair will head south to the support level of 0.4071 (red segment).



For Ethereum, the technical picture has also not changed. The quotes are located sideways between the support zone of 1697.27-1789.44 (marked with red dotted lines) and the local mirror resistance of 1813.92, marked with blue dotted lines. So far, the price of ETH/USD is cautiously turning in this range, keeping a small margin to its resistance. And for more clarity and more power reserve, it is necessary to wait for the exit from the specified consolidation corridor.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Morgan Stanley to open access to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin trading will be influenced by upcoming decisions from Indian authorities.

Bitcoin is currently going down to $ 60,000. It went right after news emerged that Indian authorities are planning to start a tough fight against cryptocurrencies.

But despite that, the country's oldest cryptocurrency exchange is open to new clients. Apparently, there has been strong growth in recent years amid increasing interest from investors. In fact, according to ZebPay, a platform serving about 4 million customers, monthly turnover could reach $ 2 billion.

All in all, India is one of the most promising markets with regards to cryptocurrencies.



To put it more precisely, although India owns less than 1% of the world's cryptocurrencies, its potential investor base is approximately 100 million and could grow even more. However, the outlook is becoming unstable because allegedly, authorities are planning to impose a ban on cryptocurrencies and mining. Of course, the Indian government denied these claims, but it still did not reassure investors. Obviously, they are waiting for clear legal documents to prove that all these rumors are false.

That said, investors are hoping that authorities do not prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies, given the investment potential it carries. In fact, according to ZebPay, trading volume could reach $ 25 billion this year.

Morgan Stanley is also reported to have plans to offer clients access to three Bitcoin funds. Two of which are from Galaxy Digital, while the other is controlled by both FS Investments and NYDIG. And although this has not been publicly announced yet, demand from investors have already skyrocketed. But only wealthy and risk-averse clients will have access to these funds, since the minimum entry is $ 2 million.

As for Wall Street banks, they remain on the sidelines even amid the sharp increase of demand for cryptocurrencies. Wall Street giants already have the ability to provide access to Bitcoin and Ether futures, but so far none of the six largest US banks have decided to provide such access to their clients.



On a different note, Grayscale Investments is reported to be launching 5 new cryptocurrency investment funds. These are: Chainlink's link token, Brave Browser's token and MANA, and the money for virtual world Decentraland. Such news dealt a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.

That being said, the key level for Bitcoin today is 59,200, and a break above it will provoke a larger jump towards 60,000, 62,000 and 65,000. But if the quote returns below 54,400, BTC/USD will collapse to 49,600 and 44,900.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 18, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin seems to be carving a lower top around $58,000/59,000 zone, and might be preparing to reverse through $43,000 levels in the coming weeks. The crypto had managed to rally yesterday but it stills looks like a corrective counter trend, which might stall around $58,400/500 zone and bears back in control. Bottom line for bears to remain in control is $61,781 high registered over the weekend.

Immediate resistance stays around $61,800mark, while support comes in around $43000 levels respectively. A consistent break below $43,000 will confirm a meaningful correction ahead. Please note that fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $61,780 is seen passing through $39,600 levels and Bitcoin might find some support coming in.

The overall uptrend and bullish structure remains intact for now but Bitcoin remains vulnerable for a deeper correction towards $28,500 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally. Also note that trend line support is passing through $24,500/25,000 levels and bullish bounce remains a high probability there.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 62,000, target @ 43,000 and 28,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 18,.2021 - Potential completion of the ABC upside correction and downside movement towards $52.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is potential completion of the ABC upside correction and chance for another downside wave towareds the $52,000.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $59,600

Support levels: $52,000 and $48,750




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Prices of major cryptocurrencies rise amid investments and positive news

Over the past day, the cryptocurrency market has received the necessary impetus for an immediate resumption of growth. Bitcoin approached record levels, while ETH and LTC were finally able to overcome the psychological boundaries that prevented assets from growing in value. The main reason for the positive dynamics of the market was two important news.

First, the American investment company Morgan Stanley will be the first in the history of the United States to allow clients to invest up to 2.5% of the investment portfolio in funds based on cryptocurrency. The innovation will take effect from next month and is guaranteed to increase the interest of users in the digital asset market. Also, the launch of this feature contributes to a bolder and wider spread of investment operations with cryptocurrencies in the US.

JPMorgan's report, which indicated that 1% of the investment portfolio should be provided to bitcoin played an important role in the launch of this feature. Based on this, we can conclude that at first, the use of cryptocurrencies in the investment portfolios of Morgan Stanley clients will be associated with hedging risks from fluctuations in traditional assets, such as stocks and raw materials.

The second news, which complemented the positive information background around the cryptocurrency market, was the large investment in BTC and ETH of a Chinese smartphone manufacturer. The Chinese tech giant, Meitu, acquired 386 bitcoins worth $21.6 million, as well as 16,000 ethereums for $28.4 million. Throughout this time, the Chinese company has invested more than $90 million in cryptocurrency.

In addition, Meitu made an important announcement, which also influenced the growth of the quotes of major digital assets. The company representatives are confident that the cryptocurrency market is in its infancy, similar to the mobile Internet in 2005. This statement can be considered a confirmation of the company's intentions to increase investment in cryptocurrency in the future.

Against the backdrop of positive news, the digital asset market has found momentum for immediate growth. Over the past day, the price of Bitcoin soared $4,500, gaining a foothold at around $58,500. The total capitalization of the asset again reached $1.1 trillion. This is a very important jump in value since the main cryptocurrency now needs to gain a foothold at the $55,000 mark in order to continue to grow. Due to the positive background and large investments, the asset's margin of safety allows it to hold its positions.



Etheruem gained 3.4% and managed to break through the $1,800 mark, where the currency floundered for almost a week. Now, the crypto asset is balancing on the brink of $1,800-1,820 and is at risk of falling back into unwanted positions. The next few days will show whether Ethereum can gain a foothold above a difficult frontier. If the coin manages to overcome the resistance and settle at the current rates, then the rapid growth of the asset will be only a matter of time.



Litecoin managed to increase its value by 4%, and its situation is similar to the dynamics of the growth of Ethereum. However, the chances of further growth for a digital asset are much less. LTC has overcome the $200 mark and is now trying to stay at the $203 mark. However, based on the fact that the asset's indicators fell in a few hours (from $208 to $203), Litecoin has no prerequisites for further growth.



The Ripple token is going through difficult times and does not respond to general market sentiment. The asset has risen in price by only 1.4%, but the cryptocurrency has been fluctuating in the range of $0.450-0.477 for more than a week. Do not expect the coin to grow steadily until the end of the SEC-Ripple litigation.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 18 - 19, 2021: Key level $58,00



The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is trading slightly below $ 58,000, although the bullish force of Bitcoin is still intact, buyers still want more and their next target will be the $ 62,500 zone, there is the +2/8 of murray extreme zone overbought.

Consolidation above the psychological level of $50,000 is a sign that in the medium term, there could be a new high reaching the level of $70.000 and up to $85,000. As long as Bitcoin remains above 50k we expect future bullish movements.

In the chart, we have plotted the formation of a shoulder, head, shoulder pattern, a few days ago we pointed out this pattern. Apparently, the right shoulder would be forming, which if the Bitcoin trades below $ 58,000, the correction can take it to the zone of the 200 EMA around $51,150.

Also, the 4-hour uptrend channel is still intact, which may give you a further bullish momentum if the channel support bounces around $54.838, this is a good buying area.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 18 - 19, 2021

Resistance (1) $58,226
Resistance (2) $59,826
Resistance (3) $61,360

Support (1) $56,985
Support (2) $55,372
Support (3) $52,336




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Short-term technical analysis on Ethereum for March 18, 2021

Ethereum is trading at $1,802 area in a bullish trend as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Bulls need to be cautious as price is trading very close to key support trend line at $1,775 and at $1,720 we also find the neckline support of a Head and Shoulders pattern.



Green line - support

Red rectangle - neckline support

Red lines - Head and Shoulders pattern

Blue lines - expected size of downward move if price breaks below the neckline

Price so far respects the upward sloping trend line support. As long as price is above $1,777 I do not think bulls have to fear anything. Resistance is at recent highs at $1,900-$1,920 area. Breaking above this level will open the way for a move towards $2,030 and higher. We also observe a potential Head and Shoulders pattern. We are now possibly in the formation of the right hand shoulder. If price breaks below the red rectangle support area where we find the neckline of the pattern, then bearish formation gets activated and our target will be at $1,500. So bulls do not in any way to see price break below the red rectangle support area at $1,710-$1,720.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
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