Cryptocurrency Analysis

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JP Morgan: the demand for bitcoin among institutional investors has started to grow



In previous articles, we have already said that the support of $ 44,000 per coin is extremely important for bitcoin. At the moment, we can say that this support has kept the cryptocurrency from falling again, which means that the upward trend continues. At the time of writing, the price of one coin is $ 50,500. Thus, buyers are pushing again, so the probability of new growth to the absolute highs of the value of bitcoin is growing. And the main supplier of interesting fundamental information in recent years is JP Morgan, a large financial holding company. At the same time, the information that comes from the holdings experts often contradicts each other. Previously, there was information that BTC is not very popular among institutional investors. Even earlier, there was information that JP Morgan analysts consider bitcoin a very volatile instrument and do not advise their clients to invest large amounts in cryptocurrency. But at the same time, they allow investments in the amount of 1% of the portfolio. The latest information says that the bank has seen an increase in demand for the "cue ball" among institutional investors. However, it is not reported how high this increase is. However, the head of research, Joyce Chan, believes that institutions are increasing their interest in BTC. However, Chan is very concerned about the fact that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has grown by $ 700 billion over the past 5 months, with capital inflows of only about $ 11 billion. Ms. Chan believes that the demand for alternative investment tools will increase, however, she believes that bitcoin is not an effective hedging tool. "Financial technology is becoming mainstream after this pandemic," Chan said. Thus, if we put all the available information together, it turns out that the demand among the institutions is still growing, but rather a little. However, for the long-term growth of the value of bitcoin, this is exactly what is needed. The question is not even how many new investors will come to bitcoin over time. The question is how large investors will treat the "cue ball" itself in the first place. If for them it is the same means of investment as for small traders, then sooner or later bitcoin is waiting for a new collapse. It is large investors who will set the tone for bitcoin trading in the future.



On the daily timeframe, we can see that the price has adjusted by 61.8% in Fibonacci after falling from 58.5 thousand per coin. However, the upward movement on Sunday gives reason to assume that after all, most traders are inclined to new purchases of the "cue ball", and not to its sales. After the rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price could not go below the mark of $ 47,000, so a new test of the area of $ 43,000 - $ 44,000 did not occur.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The largest and oldest bank in Colombia has started working with cryptocurrencies.



How did the weekend end? As a reminder, the cryptocurrency market is open seven days a week, so trading also took place on Saturday and Sunday. Yesterday, the quotes of the market sought to resume the upward movement, but the level of 50.0% on Fibonacci is still holding back the bitcoin from a new rise in price. However, we will talk about the technique below. To begin with, the fundamental news that can just help bitcoin set a new record value. As you may have guessed from the title, we will talk about the largest bank in Colombia, which has started working in a test mode with cryptocurrencies. A limited number of customers will be allowed to buy and sell cryptocurrency for fiat money - the peso. According to analysts, in this way, the bank is going to assess the potential risks from such operations. Thus, in another country of the world, it will now be possible to purchase bitcoin completely legally and store it without any threats and fears. As we said earlier, all this popularizes bitcoin, but the main problem now for this cryptocurrency is a strong drop in the shares of Tesla and Microstrategy, which is associated with the acquisition of bitcoin by both companies. According to experts, very few institutions are ready to contact BTC and large companies, especially joint-stock companies, and even more so. Thus, if the demand is growing, it is still without the participation of large holdings, banks and companies. Roughly speaking, Tesla and Microstrategy have so far shown the world that their investors clearly do not support the idea of redirecting their funds to cryptocurrency assets. Thus, bitcoin is not yet receiving additional support from the foundation. There was no positive news for Bitka last weekend. Thus, a new round of downward correction may follow in the coming days.



As we have repeatedly said, the support level of $ 44,000 remains the key for bitcoin right now. For the first time, the resumption of the upward movement choked around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, now it can choke around the 50.0% Fibonacci level. The illustration clearly shows how the bulls are not yet able to overcome the level of $ 50,650. Thus, it is quite possible that the downward movement may begin again today. We are inclined to this scenario - a fall to $ 43,000 - $ 44,000, where the future fate of digital gold will be decided. It should also be recalled that in total, bitcoin has been rising in price for 6 months. Usually, its upward trend takes just that much time.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 8, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Investor Raoul Pal stated that bitcoin's "high price" is just a mindset issue, and institutional investors do not see it the same way. This made it possible to compare the current BTC price increase with the one that took place in 2017-18. While the latter was mainly retail-oriented, this time the main players in the market are institutions.

In a podcast on what traditional investors think of bitcoin, Pal told Peter McCormack that price is a relative factor for the institution. Institutions are more concerned about the pace of adoption, the state of the law and the current market capitalization. According to Pal, the more the price rises, the more bitcoin's market capitalization prompts institutions to buy:

"Price is a function of this rising market cap ... but if you are BlackRock, you wouldn't look at it until it has hit close to a trillion dollar market cap."

In his view, traditional investors do not usually buy Fortune 500 companies on the basis of price increases. They are rather concerned about the effects of portfolio diversification on the assets and how they behave in the market cycle.

Pal believes that a market cap of one trillion dollars represents a structural shift in the market as well as the type of market participants in the cryptocurrency space:

"$10 trillion in assets will not drop to zero. $10 trillion belongs to individuals, retirement plans, and corporations. "

Pal concluded that the current state of the market looks "technically perfect". The only real thing that stands in the way of the influx of institutional money into bitcoin is that these large institutions need time to build the infrastructure to manage their cryptocurrency positions.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading inside of the trading range located between the levels of $52,201 - $46,371, but is currently approaching the local technical support located ot $49,442. The momentum remains positive, but it points down already, so any violation of the level of $49,442 might be the trigger to do lower towards $46,371. The larger time frame trend remains up and there is no indication of the up trend termination of reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $61,059
WR2 - $56,697
WR1 - $53,887

Weekly Pivot - $49,123
WS1 - $46,093
WS2 - $41,457
WS3 - $38,335


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 8, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The implementation of the changes under EIP 1559 is expected to be one of the most important milestones ever made in the Ethereum blockchain. About five other EIPs are to be added to the London update.

High gas charges in the Ethereum network are a big problem for users for a long time. In a few months, this may not be a problem anymore. Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 aims to provide a solution to the issue of high gas charges by improving online transaction processing and modifying the economy of the current network monetary policy.

An essential feature of this new fee structure is that the inclusion fee is only paid to ETH miners. Under this plan, mining will continue to burn the necessary costs. This is to ensure that only network tokens can be used for transactions on the Ethereum network. The proposal supports the economic value of ETH tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem and the risk associated with MEV risk reduction.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been going up above the level of $1,648, which is now a technical support for the price. The bulls have manage to break above the level of $1,666, which is a 61% Fibonacci extension of the last wave up and are currently heading towards the level of $1,804, which is a 100% Fibonacci extension of the last wave up. The strong and positive momentum supports the short term bullish outlook, but in order to move towards the level of $1,804, the bulls have to break above the level of $1,754, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The larger time-frame trend is still up and there is no indication of the long-term termination or reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,090
WR2 - $1,882
WR1 - $1,810

Weekly Pivot - $1,598
WS1 - $1,500
WS2 - $1,295
WS3 - $1,210


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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New stimulus package in the US. What does this mean for Bitcoin and other



Strictly speaking, this factor can affect the rate of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies very much. In order to understand exactly how, it is necessary to understand the reasons for the growth of bitcoin in the last 6-12 months. Back in March last year, bitcoin could be bought at a price of $4,000 per coin. It is believed that the growth factor of bitcoin coincided with the beginning of the pandemic and the global crisis for a reason. First, in absolutely unstable times, investors needed an additional investment tool that could hypothetically cover losses from other instruments that showed negative dynamics during the crisis. Secondly, the price of bitcoin a year ago was very attractive. Third, the U.S. government, as well as other governments and central banks, began to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. The money supply grew, and the surplus money had to be put somewhere. Why not in Bitcoin? Fourth, bitcoin has been actively used in recent months as a means of protection against inflation. Although, initially, the surplus money began to go into the cryptocurrency segment, and after Bitcoin, as usual, they began to buy everything, because it is growing. Accordingly, if another $2-3 trillion is poured into the US economy in 2021, this could potentially mean that the demand for bitcoin will grow even stronger. Of course, we can hardly expect that any ordinary American family with an annual income of less than $100,000 will run to buy bitcoins when they will have to pay $1,400 per person for assistance from the US government. But nevertheless, a certain part of the population can take such a step. After all, bitcoin is bought not only by professional traders and investors. However, there is another factor that can greatly affect the bitcoin quotes and it is more important than the factor of the new incentive package. If a large part of the market considers that bitcoin is no longer able to grow further, it will begin to get rid of it. And this process cannot be stopped or predicted. Moreover, the crisis is ending, economies are recovering, and the vaccination process is in full swing. Therefore, investors may begin to slowly abandon bitcoin in favor of other more stable and less volatile instruments. Thus, everything will depend on the "hamsters" in the coming months. Large and institutional investors should just keep their bullish attitude and not get rid of bitcoin. In this case, the cryptocurrency may become even more expensive in the next 2-3 months.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Suze Orman on Bitcoin



Finance guru Suze Orman has added her voice to Bitcoin, declaring her love for the cryptocurrency. She highlighted the power of BTC as an investment vehicle, but criticized it as an alternative to fiat currency. She also pointed out that cryptocurrencies are risky, so investors must be prepared to lose money.

"I love bitcoin and its versatility. I love that it is just there and that there are corporations that invest in it," Orman said.

"I love the idea that it can replace gold as an investment someday," she added.

Last month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the electric car company had bought $ 1.5 billion worth of Bitcoins and would, at some point, accept them as payment for its products. In the days following the announcement, the price of the cryptocurrency surged sharply, peaking at over $ 58,000 on February 21st.



Since then, price has dropped by 10%, in part due to criticism by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates. And during a Senate hearing, candidate for SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, warned of the risks of cryptocurrency fraud, which dealt another blow to the price of Bitcoin.

Aside from that, Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger renewed his opinion to Bitcoin and called it "an artificial gold substitute" that is "too volatile" to serve as a global currency.

That said, after praising Bitcoin, Orman acknowledged its shortcomings as an alternative currency, as well as the risks it poses to investors.

"Bitcoin is very risky. Don't invest with money that you could not afford to lose, "she warned.

Personally, Orman revealed that she used Bitcoin to invest in a software company called MicroStrategy (MSTR).

"Last June, I bought MicroStrategy at about $ 125 a share. I waited for it to rise to $ 1,000 a share, and then sold it."

Orman said she was encouraged to look at Bitcoin because of the remarks from ARK Invest CEO and CIO Katie Wood.




Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical analysis of Litecoin/USD for March 8, 2021



Litecoin could be building a S/H/S bottom and a clear break above resistance at 194.53 will active the bottom formation for a rally towards the former peak at 237 and longer-term towards the extension target at 324.63.

Support is currently seen at 177 and 174 below there.


Trading recommendation:
Buy a break above resistance at 194.53 and place the stop just below the low of the right should at 173.00.




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Attracts Buyers!

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading in the green at $50,287 trying to stabilize above the $50,000 psychological level. The price consolidates before trying to resume its major uptrend. The temporary retreat seems over, so BTC/USD could extend its growth soon.

The outlook is bullish and it should remain the same as long as the near-term uptrend line is unharmed. BTC/USD increased during the weekend signaling that the most recent decline is over and that the crypto could resume its upside journey.


BTC/USD CONSOLIDATES ITS UPTREND!



Bitcoin has creased from $51,846 to retest the $50,000, WL1, and the Pivot Point (49,582). Stabilizing above these obstacles could really signal that BTC/USD will resume its growth in the upcoming period.

It's traded above the uptrend line, so we could still search for long opportunities as long as BTC/USD is trading above the Pivot Point and above the uptrend support. A false breakdown with great separation below the immediate downside obstacles could bring a great buying opportunity.


BITCOIN FORECAST!

A bullish closure above $52,000 psychological level could represent a long opportunity with $58,367 all-time high as a target. Only a valid breakdown below the uptrend line could invalidate a further increase and could signal a larger correction.




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 08, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin might be still unfolding its corrective rally that had begun from $43,000 lows since February 28, 2021. It could re-test $52,000/53,000 mark before finding resistance and reversing lower. The crypto is seen to be trading at around $50,500/600 levels at this point in writing and might push through $52,000 from here, before turning lower towards $37,000 at least.

Immediate resistance is seen around $52,000, followed by $58,300, while support comes in at $43,000 (interim), followed by $29,000 levels respectively. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between $58,300 and $43,000 respectively. Also note that Bitcoin has retraced the above drop towards fibonacci 0.618 mark close to $52,000 as well.

Bulls might re-test the above resistance and if bearish structure holds well, Bitcoin might witness a sharp decline towards $37,000 mark going forward. Also note that the drop might not stop around $37,000 mark and bears might remain poised to push towards $25000 levels as well, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $58,300 levels respectively.


Trading plan:
Remain short, stop @ 60,000 target @ 37,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 08,.2021 - Rejection of the key resistance pivot at $51.700 and potential for the downside movement towrads $47.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC is testing major pivot resistance at the price of $51,700.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at the price of $47,060 and $43,040.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $51,700

Support levels:$47,060 and $43,04




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021