Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 17, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has reversed from $41,000 levels in line with what was discussed and expected, but the drop has been quite shallow until now. It could still continue lower towards $37,000 zone at least, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent up swing. A consistent drop below $34,000 will confirm that Bitcoin is most probably heading towards $31,000 before reversing higher again.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $39,400 levels at this point in writing and is expected to form the bottom around $37,000 lows in the near term. Immediate price support is seen through $34,500, followed by $31,000; while resistance is seen towards $42,500/43,000 and $49,000 respectively. We shall be watchful around $37,000 for any bullish bounce to reverse positions.

Bitcoin has carved a swing of higher highs and higher lows since $31,000 levels earlier. If prices hold above $34,000 support, the rally is expected to continue higher going forward. Traders are advised to exercise caution until the trend is clear.


Trade plan:
Aggressive: Hold short with stop @ 43,000 and target @ 36,000/37,000.

Conservative: Remain flat for now. Look to buy on a bullish turn @ 36,000/37,000, stop below @ 30,000, target @ 49,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto analysts versus crypto billionaires



Bitcoin quotes returned to the upward trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, we can now conclude that BTC is again trapped inside the triangle, the upper line of which is the level of $40,746. Consequently, the future of bitcoin now depends on which side of the triangle will eventually be overcome. If it is the top, then the upward movement will continue with the targets of $43,852 and $47,070. And if it is the lower part, then the Senkou Span B line and the level of $30,500 will continue to fall with targets. Meanwhile, fierce competition continues between crypto analysts and crypto billionaires. Recall that the former are not inclined to forecasts from the category "bitcoin will rise in price in any case to at least $100,000", and the latter, who are just interested in the constant growth in value, continue to pour even more crazy forecasts. According to crypto experts, bitcoin has practically exhausted its growth potential in the short term at this time. Many technical indicators speak in favor of the fact that quotes may drop to the level of $34,000 per coin in the near future. With regard to the more distant prospects, crypto experts are also not overwhelmed with enthusiasm, and they believe that the "bullish" trend is over and it will take a long time for all participants in the cryptocurrency market to return and want to invest in bitcoin again. Of course, not all market participants left it. However, in order for Bitcoin to return at least to its annual maximums around the level of $65,000, it is necessary that the demand also be at the level of April indicators. In the meantime, many (except MicroStrategy) are afraid of new investments in bitcoin. On the other hand, crypto billionaires and investors, who are somehow connected with bitcoin, continue to assure of the clear future of "digital gold" and prophesy to it almost crowding out all fiat money. At least most of them believe that bitcoin will continue to strive to capitalize on gold, and in a few years bitcoin will become an international and ubiquitous unit of calculation. They prefer not to mention the fact that bitcoin is extremely rarely used to pay for goods and services, as well as the fact that the governments of many countries of the world have set a course for a serious tightening of the turnover of cryptocurrencies. We would say that in the past few months, the prospects for Bitcoin to become a global cryptocurrency, which will be used for settlements on a par with fiat money, has greatly decreased. However, we recall that it is beneficial for all Bitcoin owners to increase the interest of other investors in cryptocurrency. This is because the more new investments go to the network, the more bitcoin will grow and bring profits to the current owners.



Bitcoin quotes returned to the upward trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, we can now conclude that BTC is again trapped inside the triangle, the upper line of which is the level of $40,746. Consequently, the future of bitcoin now depends on which side of the triangle will eventually be overcome. If it is the top, then the upward movement will continue with the targets of $43,852 and $47,070. And if it is the lower part, then the Senkou Span B line and the level of $30,500 will continue to fall with targets. Meanwhile, fierce competition continues between crypto analysts and crypto billionaires. Recall that the former are not inclined to forecasts from the category "bitcoin will rise in price in any case to at least $100,000", and the latter, who are just interested in the constant growth in value, continue to pour even more crazy forecasts. According to crypto experts, bitcoin has practically exhausted its growth potential in the short term at this time. Many technical indicators speak in favor of the fact that quotes may drop to the level of $34,000 per coin in the near future. With regard to the more distant prospects, crypto experts are also not overwhelmed with enthusiasm, and they believe that the "bullish" trend is over and it will take a long time for all participants in the cryptocurrency market to return and want to invest in bitcoin again. Of course, not all market participants left it. However, in order for Bitcoin to return at least to its annual maximums around the level of $65,000, it is necessary that the demand also be at the level of April indicators. In the meantime, many (except MicroStrategy) are afraid of new investments in bitcoin. On the other hand, crypto billionaires and investors, who are somehow connected with bitcoin, continue to assure of the clear future of "digital gold" and prophesy to it almost crowding out all fiat money. At least most of them believe that bitcoin will continue to strive to capitalize on gold, and in a few years bitcoin will become an international and ubiquitous unit of calculation. They prefer not to mention the fact that bitcoin is extremely rarely used to pay for goods and services, as well as the fact that the governments of many countries of the world have set a course for a serious tightening of the turnover of cryptocurrencies. We would say that in the past few months, the prospects for Bitcoin to become a global cryptocurrency, which will be used for settlements on a par with fiat money, has greatly decreased. However, we recall that it is beneficial for all Bitcoin owners to increase the interest of other investors in cryptocurrency. This is because the more new investments go to the network, the more bitcoin will grow and bring profits to the current owners.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 17, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Beijing continues to issue orders to shut down Bitcoin's mining centers. Many miners are now looking for a friendlier climate abroad.

Yunnan, the fourth largest bitcoin mining region, has been the target of recent government repression. As part of what cryptocurrency observers refer to as the "Great Mining Migration", many of these companies are looking to North America, and specifically Texas, to locate their mining centers there.

Texas has one of the lowest energy prices in the world and its share of the renewable energy sector is growing all the time. The state is currently the leader in wind-powered electricity generation, generating nearly 30% of total US production.

The state of Texas allows customers to choose between energy suppliers. Additionally, power company leaders, politicians and even bankers are rather pro-bitcoin in Texas. This makes it a perfect place for all BTC miners who are looking for a good place to locate their mining activities.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has pulled-back from the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $41,096. The rally had ended with a Pin Bar candlestick formation so far, but in a case of an extension to the upside, the next target for bulls is $41,798 - $43,159 zone. The momentum is strong and positive, so the overall outlook starts to look bullish. The confirmation will come after the $41,798 - $43,159 zone is clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $51,501
WR2 - $45,102
WR1 - $42,774

Weekly Pivot - $36,903
WS1 - $34, 523
WS2 - $28,705
WS3 - $26,848


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 17, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Gas charges (transaction costs) on the Ethereum blockchain have dropped significantly over the past month.

According to Data Dashboard from The Block, the average Ethereum network transaction fee is currently around $ 4.5. This represents a whopping 90% drop from $ 45 a month ago.

Average transaction fees are now at their six-month low. The data is based on a 7-day moving average (7MDA), which is an average over the past seven days and indicates a short-term trend.

First, there has been a significant drop in online transactions in recent weeks. Both decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-convertible token (NFT) transactions have declined with the recent market crash.

Another factor driving lower gas charges is the increasing use of Polygon's Layer 2 (formerly Matic Network) scaling solution. The number of transactions in the Polygon network has increased quite significantly in recent weeks.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been rejected from the level of $2,639, which is located just above the 61% Fibonacci retracement. The market pulled-back towards the lower channel line and fell out of the channel. The new local low was made at the level of $2,349 and the bounce from this level is still shallow. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,453 and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $2,249 (June 12 low).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,393
WR2 - $3,098
WR1 - $2,806

Weekly Pivot - $2,528
WS1 - $2,226
WS2 - $1,922
WS3 - $1,648


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bounced off the level of $40,700



Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency in the world failed to continue its growth that has been observed in recent weeks. The price spent more than a day near the $40,700 level, but was never able to overcome this level. We talked about it yesterday, calling it quite important. Thus, at this time the market has turned down. However, at the current moment, the quotes have also hit the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe, as well as the Kijun-sen line and the upward trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. This suggests that a rebound from these supports is possible. Thus, the further fall of bitcoin, which may be now in the side channel of $31,000 - $41,000, depends on these supports. In case of overcoming them, the fall in quotes will continue. Under the current circumstances, Bitcoin would be greatly helped by the fundamental background. Several or even one positive news could help investors push through the $40,700 level. However, the problem is precisely that there is no positive news for bitcoin right now. And the news that appeared a few weeks ago continues to speak in favor of a new drop in bitcoin quotes, just because there is no other important news right now. Of the really important news of recent days, we can only note the desire of MicroStrategy to buy "digital gold" for another $1 billion. According to many experts, the company has been playing with fire for a long time. Many have no doubt that Bitcoin will continue to rise in price in the long term, but cryptocurrencies are highly dependent on the actions of governments and central banks. And in recent months, there has been a tendency to tighten regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere. Recall that in China, mining has already been banned in 4 provinces, and in the United States in the coming weeks they may adopt a budget for the 2022 fiscal year and amendments to tax legislation that will relate specifically to the cryptocurrency sphere. Thus, potentially bad news awaits Bitcoin in the near future. Returning to MicroStrategy, many experts also believe that buying bitcoins is not only an attempt to make money on a highly profitable and high-risk instrument. Thanks to investments in bitcoin, the company became known all over the world, and its shares rose several times. However, there is a downside to the coin, as the value of the company's shares is now highly dependent on the cryptocurrency market. And, as we said, cryptocurrencies are not like the stocks of Apple or Microsoft, which are almost guaranteed to grow in the long term, because they are backed by real assets, developments, technologies, and so on. Bitcoin is not even gold, since it has no value of its own and no benefit of its own. The price of bitcoin continues to depend only on market sentiment and its belief in future growth.



Technically, bitcoin failed to overcome the $40,000 ($40,700) level and began to decline. On the daily timeframe, you can clearly see that the cryptocurrency can be inside the side channel. Consequently, it is possible that in the coming days there will be a movement towards its lower border. On the other hand, overcoming the level of $40,700 will allow investors to breathe more freely and continue buying bitcoin, which may lead it to the levels of $43,852 and $47,070.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for June 17 - 20, 2021: Sell Below 42,768 - Buy above 36,766



Yesterday the price of Bitcoin (BTC / USD) extended its losses after reaching the psychological level of 40,000, and remained with a bearish signal shortly after the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, announced that the Fed would move up its timeline for rate hikes and would schedule two interest rate hikes in 2023.

This downward movement of BTC in a daily chart could be viewed as a correction to accumulate more upward force, since the key support level where the SMA of 21 acts as a strong floor is the area of 36,766. If Bitcoin remains above this level, the price increase is expected to zone of the EMA 200.

Yesterday the price of Bitcoin approached a key support level of 2/8 of murray located at 37,500. A little lower at 36,700 is the dynamic support of the 21 SMA, which is also supporting Bitcoin. A bounce from these levels will be considered a good opportunity to buy.

If you look at the daily chart, BTC has managed to enter above the bearish channel support. Now it has a little more scope to move between 36,700 and 42,780 and to the top of the bearish channel at the psychological level of $ 50,000.

The yellow highlighted area is the probable movement of Bitcoin BTC / USD for the next few days. It is expected that there will be a good buying opportunity in the 36,766 zone (21 SMA) and a good selling opportunity in the resistance zone of 42,700 (EMA 200).

The technical reading of the eagle indicator in daily charts shows that it is moving away from the oversold zone and pointing to a bullish signal. So, probably in the medium term Bitcoin is expected to reach the mark of $50,000 and up to $64,000.

Our recommendation is to buy above 37,000 and sell below 43,000 a price range for the next few days.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 17 – 20, 2021
Resistance (3) 42,731
Resistance (2) 41,160
Resistance (1) 39,756

Support (1) 36,818
Support (2) 35,444
Support (3) 33,680




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Steve Hanke: El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin will lead the country to economic collapse



Steve Hanke is confident that El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as a legitimate payment method can be a catalyst for the collapse of the country's economy.

It can be recalled that he has previously called BTC a speculative crypto asset with a zero base value. In April, the economist tweeted: "Altcoins are the future of money, but Bitcoin is not."

During the interview, he strongly criticized bitcoin: "You will not be able to pay for a trip on public transport with Bitcoin. The lion's share of Salvadorans does not have bank accounts."

The Doctor of Economics believes that the owners of Bitcoins in countries such as China have every chance now to focus their eyes on El Salvador to withdraw their own assets, completely withdrawing US dollars from the country's treasury. He noticed that this can lead to an absolute economic collapse, precisely because the entire circulation of the US dollar can go out of circulation and there will be no funds left in the country. Adding that the country does not have its own currency.

In his opinion, the adoption of cryptocurrency as a legitimate means of payment may jeopardize the country's relationship with the International Monetary Fund.

He also sees no reason to transfer Bitcoins from outside the country to their relatives since they will clearly have to convert them into US dollars, and this can be quite difficult, especially for the elderly.

Steve Hanke, Ph.D., Professor of Economics at the Johns Hopkins Institute, has become known as a currency reformer in emerging market countries such as Albania, Argentina, Bulgaria, Bosnia, and Herzegovina, Ecuador. He worked as an adviser to the heads of countries in Asia, South America, Europe, and the Middle East.

El Salvador cannot print US dollars, so its transition to Bitcoin may be a deliberate decision of the country's leadership in order to empty the pockets of the residents of the state for the payment of debts in US dollars.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin declines, whales buy and accumulate

Bitcoin is falling today and this could be a harbinger of future growth. But why and how soon, we will consider below.

According to analytical company Santiment, bitcoin whales continue to increase their position volume. Million-level addresses containing between 100 and 10,000 BTC have increased their coins by 90,000 bitcoins over the past 25 days.

Bitcoin holdings in this category of big players hit a 7-month high, pushing total reserves to 9.11 million. It is worth noting that these addresses store about 50% of the total amount of bitcoins worth $370 billion.

At the same time, data from Glassnode show that long-term holders of the main cryptocurrency continue to firmly hold their bitcoin reserves. This includes, among other things, those buyers who purchased BTC 155 days before or before January 10, 2021. Thus, the rate of redemption of coins increased during this time period.

Prior to this, it was observed that the owners of smaller bitcoin wallets, 100-1000 BTC each, also bought more BTC at the time the price fell. The purchases took almost a month.

Also, the bitcoin miner churn index fell. Fresh data provided by the research firm Glassnode shows that they have also been keeping the mined bitcoins with them lately, probably counting on a further rise in its price.

It is worth noting that the 25 days cited in the study began around May 23, when Bitcoin retreated from lows in the $31,000 area and moved to consolidate in a wide range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24. This sideways trend is a technical confirmation of the accumulation, and the data on the growth in the number of bitcoins on the addresses of whales is another argument in favor of this assumption. I wrote about what is strong and why this lateral is important in the previous review.

Now we look locally. Yesterday, the BTC/USD trading corridor was between support at 38,610.88 and resistance at 41,980.24. So far, today's fall looks technical but uncertain. Two scenarios are possible: a rebound from the level of 38,610.88 (red dotted line) and its confirmation as a support. In this case, there is a possibility of an attempt to test the strength of 41,980.24 in the near future.

If the horizontal line 38,610.88 (red dotted line) is broken and the price consolidates below it, a decrease, maybe even progressive, to the lower border of the sideways 28,392.99 - 41,980.24 is possible, where whales will buy out bitcoin again.

Possible scenarios are marked on the chart for clarity. The bullish scenario of the exit from the consolidation remains unchanged - the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 41,980.24.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for June 16 - 17, 2021: Buy above 37,500



After opening of the American session, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading above the SMA of 21 and the EMA of 200, showing a bullish bias, after having broken the symmetrical triangle that had formed since the sharp fall in the month of May.

BTC / USD has been marked by low volume in recent weeks as Bitcoin was trading within the triangle pattern, and we saw a price range between $ 31,000 and 38,000.

With BTC now hovering above this downside pressure zone, it is now likely that it will now find it easier to reach its medium-term goal at the psychological level of $ 50,000 (4/8).

It is likely that the volatility that characterizes BTC / USD will increase in view of the fact that some investors are buying more currencies. They are optimistic that Bitcoin will reach the price level of $64,000 and can overcome this barrier by reaching up to the maximum of $75,000 until the end of the year.

According to technical analysis, we can support this idea because in the chart we note that the BTC could easily reach the $50,000 area in the short term, given that the 200 EMA is located in the $38,000 area.

Therefore, our recommendation is to continue buying BTC at current price levels. On the other hand, if you want to be a bit more conservative, we can buy in the technical bounce zone of $37,500 with targets at $43,750 (3/8) and $50,000 (4 / 8).


Support and Resistance Levels for June 16 – 17, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,939
Resistance (2) 40,872
Resistance (1) 39,005

Support (1) 37,245
Support (2) 36,479
Support (3) 33,680




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Altcoin market fluctuates amid investor uncertainty: analysis and forecasts

The altcoin market has become extremely dependent on the bitcoin situation over the past few weeks. On June 15, the main cryptocurrency managed to overcome the threshold of $40,000, which had a positive effect on the entire market, as it indicated the beginning of an upward trend. However, today, June 16, bitcoin quotes faced resistance in the area of $40,600, which negatively affected the position of the entire altcoin market. As a result, the positive attitude of investors in the long term and uncertainty about the current situation of cryptocurrencies have created a situation in which the market needs momentum.

The correlation between altcoins and bitcoin is most clearly seen in the example of Ethereum. When BTC broke the $40,000 mark and struggled with the resistance around $40,600, the ethereum indicators also grew. The asset managed to overcome the $2,600 mark and showed excellent dynamics of price growth. However, within a few hours, the situation changed, and as of 12:00 UTC, the main altcoin sank in price by 4.5%, and the local dynamics of price changes became negative (-2%). All this happened simultaneously with the fall of bitcoin to the mark of $39,000. In addition, there is a significant decrease in social activity in the ETH network. Transaction fees on the asset's network have fallen by 90% over the current month. The reason for this was the general decline of the cryptocurrency market, as well as the development of networks of altcoins such as Cardano and the growing demand for bitcoin. The decrease in the number of transactions in the asset's network is also evidenced by the extremely low level of daily trading volumes ($24 billion). In the current situation, the local task of ethereum is to consolidate over the border at $2,500 and then move to $2,800.



A similar situation is observed with the XRP token. The cryptocurrency moved to an important threshold in the region of $0.904 but failed to gain a foothold on it. As a result, the coin sank to the usual level of $0.873, from where it began to show growth. However, the aggravation of the situation with bitcoin caused XRP/USD to sink even more, to the level of $0.804. Over the past day, the asset has fallen in price by 4.5%, and the local dynamics of price changes indicate a continuation of the downward movement. At the same time, interest in cryptocurrency dropped significantly, which led to extremely low daily trading volumes, in the region of $3 billion. Given the slight lull in the market, the cryptocurrency will continue to fluctuate and is unlikely to be able to overcome the $0.900 threshold without significant momentum.



Litecoin indicators showed that the asset was successfully approaching the important mark of $180. Having rolled back to a local minimum of $160, the cryptocurrency increased its pace and came close to the psychological mark. However, market uncertainty and investors' fears caused LTC to fall in price by 4.5% over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the cryptocurrency continues to fall in price, as indicated by the local dynamics (-2.5%). However, the altcoin has every chance of staying at the $160 mark. At the same time, the coin has no prerequisites for the start of growth, as evidenced by the extremely low volumes of daily trading.



There is an atmosphere of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Institutional players have increased the necessary volumes of coins. At the same time, the news background normalized, and the bitcoin indicators broke through the $40,000 mark. Everything indicates that the crypto market is ready for a new bullish trend, but it is important to take into account the 80% correlation between BTC and altcoins. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate and has already fallen beyond $40,000, which instantly affected the quotes of other cryptocurrencies. Despite the long-term confidence of investors, the current situation is not conducive to active action. With this in mind, the further movement vector of the cryptocurrency market will depend on the performance of bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads, and it will soon become clear which vector of movement of cryptocurrencies will become the main one for the coming weeks.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021