Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 29, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Craig Wright, the man who claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, won a copyright case for the Bitcoin Manifesto.

According to information from Ontier LLP, the law firm representing Craig Wright, nChain researcher received a default judgment today in his copyright infringement action against Bitcoin.org webmaster

Craig Wright demanded that the official Bitcoin manifesto be removed from Bitcoin.org and Bitcoincore.org. Bitcoincore.org agreed, but the Bitcoin.org webmaster refused, so Craig Wright filed a lawsuit against him.

During the interrogation, it turned out that in order for the Bitcoin.org webmaster to claim his rights, he had to reveal his identity. The bitcoin guy hiding under the pseudonym valued his anonymity more than the possible victory in the dispute, so he decided to relinquish the right to defend himself or present arguments to a judge. This move made it easier for Craig Wright to win the case.

Does this mean that British courts will recognize Craig Wright as the author of the Bitcoin White Book? Not at all. It also doesn't mean that British courts identify him as Satoshi Nakamoto.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,173 and keeps going higher. The next target for bulls is seen at $2,201 (technical resistance) and $2,173 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down). The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,043. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,667
WR2 - $2,446
WR1 - $2,091

Weekly Pivot - $1,898
WS1 - $1,514
WS2 - $1,323
WS3 - $946


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Big test ahead for Ethereum.

Ethereum made a double bottom around the $1,700 price level. Trend remains bearish despite the short-term bounce. Price has important resistance just above current levels, around $2,300. Breaking above this level would be an important break out and will most probably push price towards $2,800.



Red line -resistance

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement.

Price has most probably completed the downward move from beginning of June around $2,900. Ethereum is now bouncing higher towards the red resistance trend line. Most probable scenario is for price to reach the 50% retracement and get rejected at these levels.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Showing Positive Signs!

Bitcoin has rebounded and it could hit 35,517.22 resistance level soon. In the short term, the bias is bullish after reaching a support zone.

The price action has developed a reversal pattern and it could confirm a potential upwards movement. Technically, the downside seems limited, BTC/USD has invalidated a potential further drop.


BTC/USD IMMINENT BREAKOUT!


Bitcoin is traded at 34,522 level at the time of writing and it could challenge the 35,517 resistance again. It has decreased to retest the 30,066, the upper median line (uml), and the lower median line (LML).

Jumping and stabilizing above it could indicate a potential growth towards the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML). Actually, it could be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection between the warning line (wl1) with the median line (ML).


OUTLOOK!

A bullish closure above the 35,517 level could be seen as a buying opportunity. A larger upwards movement will be confirmed if the price will make a valid breakout above the median line (ML) and through the warning line (wl1).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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FCA's Binance ban in the UK did not scare investors

Another blow to the cryptocurrency market was dealt by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, which imposed a complete ban on Binance Markets Ltd. in the UK. By the evening of June 30th, Binance must confirm that it has removed all promotional material from its sites and mobile apps hosted and used in the UK. The exchange must also make it clear on its website, social media channels, and all other communities that it is prohibited from operating in the UK. All transactions on Binance Markets are prohibited until a written order from the supervisory authority.



This step can be put on a par with the measures taken by the Chinese government due to fears of the spread of criminal schemes aimed at money laundering and fraud. Most recently, Binance withdrew an application concerning the 5MLD, an anti-money laundering directive, after it faced serious opposition from the FCA. The department stated that although the blockchain itself is decentralized and opens up limitless opportunities, many technologies created on its basis are not such.

But despite this news, we did not see any serious pressure on the exchange rate of the world's first cryptocurrency. Another attempt to break beyond the level of 31,000 was unsuccessful. The reason for this may be the fact that crypto markets often interpret strict regulatory measures by the government and regulators as a sign of the maturing of the market. This is enough for those who believe in the power of cryptocurrencies and its great future.

As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, the next test of the $30,100 level was very difficult and stressful for cryptocurrency buyers. However, the bulls managed to keep this level under control and quickly returned the trading instrument higher. Now Bitcoin is aimed at the resistance of $36,300, and trading above which is simply vital for it. Only in this case, the bulls will exhale a little, and the tension in the market will subside. If it does not work out in the near future, then the next return and support test of $30,100 will be a sad finale for those who gained positions in the $30,100 – $41,100 corridor. A break of $30,100 will quickly push BTC lower – to the lows of $25,800 and $21,700, which will lead to the departure from the market of another number of large investors who still somehow believe in the growth of cryptocurrencies. A return to the level of $21,700 will actually cover all the rapid growth of the trading instrument, which we observed in the first half of the year.



India, on the other hand, is increasingly looking towards cryptocurrencies. A recent report by Chainalysis says that in India, where more than 25,000 tons of gold is stored in the safes of the local population, investments in cryptocurrency continue to arouse quite wide interest. According to the latest data, investments in crypto assets have grown from the level of $200 million to almost $40 billion over the year. And this is provided that the Central Bank does not hide its hostile attitude to cryptocurrencies and actively promotes a policy of their complete ban.

According to the co-founder of India's first cryptocurrency exchange, the growth of interest in this direction in India mainly comes from the age group of 18-35. Recent data show that Indian adults under the age of 34 have a more modest interest in investing in gold than older consumers. Apparently, the ease of access to investing in cryptocurrencies, compared to buying physical gold, attracts new young Indian investors more.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Guggenheim's Scott Minerd predicts Bitcoin drop to $10,000 - $15,000



As stated in the previous article, Bitcoin bounced again from the $31,100 mark, but this time it failed to work out the $29,700 mark. Nonetheless, the rebound has taken place, so now a new round of upward movement has begun.

However, if on the 24-hour time frame everything looks as if the cryptocurrency is in the side channel of $31,100 - $40,700, respectively, where you can count on an increase to the level of $40,700, then on the 4-hour time frame, it is clearly visible that the quotes have risen today to the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator, as well as to their previous local maximum and at the moment they have failed to overcome these obstacles. Thus, a new fall in digital gold can be expected in the 4-hour time frame. And the quotes will not be able to bounce off the level of $ 31,100 indefinitely. In this way, a new decline in Bitcoin to this level could greatly increase the likelihood of overcoming it.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan has confirmed its forecast for the price of Bitcoin in the near future. Earlier, experts of the investment bank said that they expect a new fall in the main cryptocurrency up to the level of $24,000 per coin. But the investment director of Guggenheim Partners, Scott Minerd, believes that in the next year Bitcoin prices will fall to $10,000 or $15,000 per coin. In his opinion, investors now do not need to rush to buy Bitcoin, as over the next few years the cryptocurrency will tend to move horizontally with a downward bias. Interestingly, earlier, Guggenheim Partners predicted a rise in the rate to $400,000, and a little later - to $600,000. In addition, Minerd has already called Bitcoin a "bubble".

However, we agree with the opinion that Bitcoin may drop to $10,000 per coin in the coming year. Now, it turns out that the bears need to push through the important level of $31,100, which will open the way further down. Recall that the growth of Bitcoin quotes in the past year and a half was triggered not least by the global crisis caused by the pandemic, and by huge stimulus measures from governments and central banks. At this time, on the contrary, there is an outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market.



Technically, on the 4-hour time frame, Bitcoin quotes bounced back from the support level of $31,100. This rebound can provoke a turn of the upward movement towards the upper border of the side channel ($31,100 - $41,000). However, to continue the upward movement, buyers need to overcome the Senkou Span B line, which lies at the level of $35,100.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for June 28,.2021 - Watch for potential selling opportunities due to bear divergence

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading downside due to overbought condition in the background. The price tested the level of $34.205.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities if the price breaks the upside channel.

Downside targets is set at the price of 1.1855.

Resistance is set at 1.1975

Stochastic is showing downside cross and potential for downside continuation...

Bollinger bands are showing contraction and potential for the breakout....





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The fifth unsuccessful attempt to overcome the level of $31,100



The quotes of bitcoin fell to the level of $31,100 this weekend, and this decline to this level was already the fifth time in the last month and a half. Bitcoin bounced off this level every time, so sellers are trying really hard right now. At the same time, buyers can't do anything with the cryptocurrency at all. In the last couple of weeks, the quotes have been trading more near the lower border of the side channel of $31,100 - $40,700, although they used to gravitate towards the upper one. Thus, we can assume that the overcoming of the level of $31,100 will still take place. This is exactly the scenario that we adhere to. We believe that the upward trend in bitcoin has been completed and now a long period of consolidation has begun, which may take at least a year or two. During this time, the first cryptocurrency in the world can lose up to 80-90% of its value, which no longer looks like an impossible task, since bitcoin has already fallen in price by 50% from its recent highs. We also recall that bitcoin ended its "bullish" trend in this way. Therefore, in the future, we may see bitcoin again at 6-10 thousand dollars per coin. Such a forecast seems incredible, but recall that just a year ago, the figure of $65,000 per coin also looked incredible.

The fundamental background, unfortunately, remains very negative. By and large, it has simply not changed recently, so there are no more reasons for investors to be optimistic. China continues its crackdown on miners. And given the fact that most of the world's mining capacities were located in China, this is a serious blow to both miners and bitcoin. Experts note that a huge amount of supported mining equipment has recently entered the market, which indicates, firstly, that not all Chinese miners are going to transfer their activities to other countries, some will simply stop mining cryptocurrency, and secondly, with the fall of the bitcoin exchange rate, there are trite fewer miners. All this again does not play in favor of bitcoin. So far, everything looks as if the surprising thing has passed and now the world is slowly returning to its usual, habitual state. Video cards are getting cheaper, mining equipment manufacturers are temporarily suspending sales, the demand for bitcoin and all related services, and goods is decreasing. The demand for other cryptocurrencies is also decreasing, so we continue to believe that in the near future, "digital gold" will simply not even have any reasons and grounds for a new upward spiral.



In technical terms, bitcoin fell to the support level of $31,100 for the fifth time and bounced off it for the fifth time. Formally, the price has turned up again and may continue a new round of movement to the upper border of the side channel – $40,700. However, bitcoin has been aiming to overcome the level of $31,100 for several weeks now. And the consolidation of quotes under the level of $31,100 may signal the readiness of the cryptocurrency for a new fall. Recall that many crypto experts speak in favor of the fact that the main cryptocurrency will continue to become cheaper and may fall to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin. And some even predict the figure of $10,000.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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UK bans Binance



The UK Financial Conduct Authority has issued a consumer warning against Binance. It also banned the crypto exchange from any regulated activity in the country.

Binance, which recently announced that it plans to launch its very own digital asset marketplace in Britain, will not be able to resume operations in the country without prior written consent. An FCA spokesman said it is one of the many crypto asset companies that do not meet the required standards under anti-money laundering regulations.

Binance has until Wednesday evening to confirm that it removed all advertising and financial promotions in accordance with the DCO. The company must also clearly indicate on its website, social media channels and all other communications that it is no longer allowed to operate in the UK.

This move obviously expands regulatory action on the cryptocurrency sector amid concerns over its potential involvement in money laundering and fraud.

Bitcoin retained earlier gains after the announcement, trading 6.1% higher to $ 33,227 as of 11:25 am in New York City. Crypto bulls often interpret tough regulatory action as a sign of a maturing market.



Earlier, Bloomberg released a report saying Binance is being audited by multiple agencies in the United States. Japan also issued a warning against the company, reasoning that it offers crypto services without registration.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 28, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has managed to rally back above $34,500 levels after having dropped through $30,100 levels over the weekend. The crypto might be back in control of bulls as expected and remain poised to push through $42,000 levels in the near term. Please note that probabilities remain for a continued rally through $48,000 mark as well, before finding major resistance.

Bitcoin is seen to trade around $34,600 levels at this point in writing and is expected to continue further in the next few trading sessions. Immediate resistance is fixed at $42,600 while support comes in around $28,500 levels respectively. A break above $42,600 will be considered further bullish going forward and Bitcoin might attempt $48,000 thereafter.

Traders were advised to initiate long positions over the last week with risk below $28,000 levels. Please continue holding positions and consider adding on dips. Watch out for a push towards $42,500/43,000 mark in the near future.


Trading plan:

Remain long stop @ 28,000, target @ 42,000/43,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Iran's Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade has licensed 30 cryptocurrency mining centers, the Financial Tribune revealed this week. The media referred to the official data published on the department's website. One of these farms is located in the province of Tehran, where the country's capital is located.

Semnan Province, an administrative region east of Tehran, is home to the largest number of licensed facilities with six crypto farms. Alborz is next with four, followed by Mazandaran, East Azerbaijan and Zanjan.

The ministry has also issued 2,579 permits to establish new industrial units throughout the Republic, 305 of which are located in the Zanjan province. Fars Province, with 262 permits, and West Azerbaijan, with 247 permits, rank second and third respectively.

Iran approved crypto mining as legal activity two years ago. The government has introduced a licensing system for entities wishing to engage in the industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has possibly made a Double Bottom technical pattern at the level of $1,730. Since the bottom was made, the market had broken above the short-term trend line resistance and is heading towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at $2,077. The next target for bulls is seen at $2,201 (technical resistance) and $2,173 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down). The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,667
WR2 - $2,446
WR1 - $2,091

Weekly Pivot - $1,898
WS1 - $1,514
WS2 - $1,323
WS3 - $946


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021