Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Unexpected rise in inflation in China supported demand for Litecoin (We expect continued consolidation of the Bitcoin/USD pair and a local increase in Litecoin/USD and Ethereum/USD pairs)
10 September 2019

While the cryptocurrency market is expanding, and interest in these assets remains at a high level due to the attention to this topic of the largest world companies, such as Apple, investors are trying to understand what can be expected in this specific market in the near future.

Earlier, cryptocurrency market analysts quite justifiably stated that there are no fundamental factors that could suggest to investors possible directions of the movement of cryptocurrency rates so far. However,the situation began to change gradually. Now, after the boom of interest in these tools at the end of 2017 (when the value of the assets of this market soared up), it is necessary not only to evaluate from a technical point of view the likely dynamics of assets in order to "enter" the market with a high degree of probability, but also to use the manifested interdependencies with the behavior of traditional financial instruments and news flows.

In our analysis, we adhere to the emerging situation of a certain mirroring in the behavior of the dollar and cryptocurrencies traded for the same dollar, as well as the dynamics of the dollar and Chinese yuan, and the behavior of the American stock market.

In our opinion, one should pay attention to the fundamental reasons that drive the exchange rate of the American currency and take them into account in the analysis. A clear weakening of the dollar is supporting cryptocurrencies, but it should be recognized that until the situation with the future monetary policy of the Fed is clarified, we do not expect any specific directional movements. Therefore, we are of the opinion that the general sideways trend will continue until the Fed meeting.

After the opening of Monday trading in the United States, quotes of the cryptocurrency three came under pressure in the wake of positive dynamics in the stock market. Before the start of trading, the pairs including BTC/USD, LTC/USD and ETH/USD rose sharply but also retreated dynamically despite the weakening dollar against a basket of major currencies. We believe that if such market sentiment persists and such a probability does occur, then the dynamics of the three cryptocurrency pairs will be formed in rather narrow ranges until the end of this week.

After the publication of data on inflation in China on Tuesday, which unexpectedly intensified, the renminbi began to grow, which, in our opinion, was the reason for the local increase in the LTC/USD pair. However, while the other pairs - BTC / USD and ETH / USD - did not show activity, these remained in very narrow ranges.


Technical picture and trading ideas:
In the short term, we expect the Bitcoin/USD pair to remain in a wide range of 9295.50-10900.00 in the wake of waiting for news on the topic of the trade conflict between the US and China. Today, it is likely that the pair will remain in an even narrower range of 9967.35-10489.00.

The Litecoin/USD pair has broken out from the level of 70.50 in the wake of the local appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar. Holding above this mark, it is likely that it will continue to grow to 75.35.

The Ethereum/USD pair still remains in the lateral range 164.80-182.50. However, if it overcomes the level of 182.50, there is a high probability that it will continue to increase to 195.43.








Performed by Pati Gani
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350
10 September 2019

Industry news:
Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton has said that the organization is getting ever closer to finally approving a bitcoin ETF. However, Clayton went onto warn that further work needs to be done to avoid the manipulation of price and make sure the market is transparent.

Technical view:


Bitcoin did exactly what I expected last yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

Black lines - Channel

Green falling line – Expected path

Nothing specially changed since my yesterday's analysis.I still still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary. Additionally, I found that momentum on the upside decreasing in last up wave, which is indication for the weak buyers on the market. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, I would watch for selling opportunities. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies on lower frames 5/15 for better timing. Most recently, I found rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which is another confirmation for the downward continuation.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 10th. After what time is each Bitcoin owner guaranteed to make a profit?

Bitcoin – 4H.

On September 9, the BTC rate continues to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% ($9788), which is the first target on the way to the lower line of the tapering triangle or the upward trend line, to which I expect to descend in the coming days and weeks. A signal to drop BTC was received yesterday morning, as cryptocurrencies closed at Fibo level of 61.8% ($10256). I still do not consider buying "cue ball" before closing quotes over the area of $10907 - $11089 and, accordingly, over the downward trend line. This is the technical picture of the "cue ball" on September 10.

Now, as for the news from the cryptocurrency segment. An interesting study was conducted to find out what is the period between buying bitcoin and guaranteed profit for absolutely every investor. It turned out that this period takes about 3 years and 8 months. Of course, we are talking about every investor who has at least one bitcoin in his portfolio. Those who sold BTC for $19500 made profits a few days later. And those who bought for $ 19,500 are not the fact that they will ever receive it at all. Nevertheless, current research provides such averages.

Meanwhile, in Japan, at the 6th international conference on the regulation of cryptocurrencies, it was proposed to transfer the forex market to stablecoins. It is assumed that such a solution can save banks liquidity, which in the context of a possible recession of the world economy is a useful solution for the banking systems of many countries. At the moment, the forex market is a decentralized market that does not have a single control center. And the exchange rate of a particular currency is determined by many transactions in the interbank network, access to which only very large financial institutions have access to.

Even more interesting news is coming from the Bitcoin network itself. According to the statistics website Blokchain.info, the hash rate will soon reach three digits. This suggests that miners are increasing production capacity since in 2020 the so-called halving will take place, which will halve the profit for one mined block. Accordingly, if the price of bitcoin does not grow twice by that time, then bitcoin mining will become twice less profitable. Moreover, since the reward will be reduced by half, some of the equipment (mostly old) can be thrown into the landfill, since, using it for mining, the costs will exceed revenues. Therefore, more miners want to have time to get as many "cue balls" as possible, while the price is high enough, and halving is not soon.


Overall results:
Bitcoin continues to fall in price, although at a low pace. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $ 9300 - $9400. I don't see any prerequisites for other development of an event now. I still recommend considering Bitcoin purchases after the appearance of trend change signals.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.

Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling a cryptocurrency with the goals of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci),$ 9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9400 (the bottom line of the triangle).

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytic expert
Instaforex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

What to expect from Bitcoin, autumn growth or preparing for the harsh winter (September 10)

The first cryptocurrency since the beginning of autumn is not so bad. The return of quotes above the $10,000 mark gives optimism to market participants, and an influx of cash may provide a chance for solid growth of Bitcoin. Now, there are several theories about new turns of growth of Bitcoin, and they all focus on living money from the real world. The first and one of the most high-profile news was against the background of the movement of a very large transaction of 94,504 BTC (more than $1 billion). On September 6, the Whale Alert robot, which tracks the movement of large crypto transactions in real-time, recorded an unusual movement of capital in the amount of 94,504 BTC. A noteworthy point is that the wallets from which such a significant amount was moved do not belong to any of the crypto exchanges. One of the theories of this movement is that large transactions may be involved in institutional investors who replenish Bakkt deposits. Then this is very good news for the crypto industry, so funds can pump the market with real money, which will result in an upward trend. The next theory came from China, where, according to Bloomberg, residents began to hedge risks due to the ongoing trade war with the United States, transferring part of their savings to cryptocurrencies. As a result, sharp jumps in the rate of bitcoin on local exchanges.


Digest of the past days:
• Apple Pay Vice President Jennifer Bailey expressed his opinion about cryptocurrencies in an interview with CNN: "We are watching cryptocurrencies. We think it's interesting and they have long-term potential." The opinion of one of the largest corporations in the world is a big plus in the development of the crypto industry.

• It has been reported that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) plans to launch bitcoin options soon. Let me remind you that at the end of 2017, CME launched bitcoin futures.

• The future head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, urged central banks not to exert excessive pressure on cryptocurrencies. "About new technologies, such as digital currencies, it is necessary to be alert when it comes to financial stability, privacy, and unlawful acts, and to ensure that all the requirements are presented to direct technologies for the benefit of society. But it also means recognizing the wider benefits to society of innovation and providing space for their development, "said Christine Lagarde.

• At a forum sponsored by the Swiss Institute for International Studies, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke out on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. So, Powell said that the Fed is watching the crypto industry, but does not plan to create its cryptocurrency.

• Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Jay Clayton in an interview with CNBC said that cryptocurrency enterprises are already much closer to the necessary standards, but they have not yet proved the safety of Bitcoin ETFs for investors.

As we can see from the news flow, the crypto industry is not just developing, it is beginning to gain a new trend, attracting more attention.

What we have now is a small correctional move of September 6, where the quote returned to the previously formed cluster at the level of 10000/10400. The goal of many is to keep quotes above $10,000, as in this case, it will be possible to consider the gain from the psychological level and the range of accumulation, which will give strength in the further formation of the upward move.


What are the assumptions for further development?
The priority has already been voiced above, it is holding quotes above $ 10,000, but as you know, these are hopes, but in reality, we can see another entry into the accumulation framework, that is, 9800/10500. What is most important in setting forecasts is the fact that when expectations coincide in the form of entering the market of institutional investors, an upward trend may appear, which will help bitcoin escape from the ill-fated framework. As you know, such judgments do not carry the prospect of a day, a week, or even a month; this is something closer to a long-term recommendation, so keep this in mind if your positions are designed for several days.

Key coordinates for the upward stroke: 10950; 12330; 13130; 13970.

Key coordinates for the downward stroke: 10000; 9400; 8500; 7500.

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see that the volume of the market has been moving almost horizontally for quite a long time, but, as experienced traders say, an ascending sidebar is visible. Compared to the previous article, capitalization fell by $ 3.3 billion and currently amounts to $ 264.4 billion. Such changes in terms of the entire cryptocurrency market are negligible, and thus we see that, in principle, the market is worth it.

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, the current ceilings are 272 – 281 – 320 – 356 – $385 billion.


The index remained unchanged and is at the level of 41p. As we can see, the correctional movement didn't scare market participants and we go at critically low levels, perhaps this fall and the truth will be safe for the crypto industry.


Technical analysis
Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short-term and intraday interval signal sales, reflecting the actual corrective course of the market. The medium-term outlook maintains an upward interest, filtering the current correction.





Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 11 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Facebook's Stablecoin, Libra, must meet the highest anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing standards, as stated by Undersecretary of the Treasury Ministry of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Sigal Mandelker.

According to the publication, Sigal Mandelker told reporters in Geneva that every cryptocurrency - including Libra - operating in the United States must meet local regulatory standards.

Financial regulators around the world have concerns about Libra, and key European Central Bank official, Yves Mersch, recently said that Facebook's stablecoin is "captivating but treacherous" at an ECB legal conference.

A delegation of US regulators visited Switzerland, where Libra is based to investigate the project and meet with local regulators. The visit, however, did not alleviate the fears of US regulators.

Facebook is also trying to influence US regulators by increasing lobbying efforts by employing a lobbying company at the end of August, followed by two more lobbyists.

Interestingly, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, gave a more original opinion when he suggested the transformation of the global financial system by replacing the US dollar with a digital currency similar to Facebook Libra.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,882 during the expansion of the corrective cycle in the wave 2 of a higher degree. Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit, the market is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,244
WR2 - $11,525
WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260
WS1 - $9,607
WS2 - $8,906
WS3 - $8,306


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 11 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Leading ASIC excavator manufacturer, Bitmain, announced the release of two new S17 devices. Two new mining systems, namely S17e and T17e, will be launched today. The company claims that both new models contain improvements that should translate into higher performance, more stable operation and longer life.

Bitmain also published the specifications of both newly announced mining machines. S17e has a hash rate of 64 TH / s and works with an energy efficiency of 45J / TH, while T17e offers a hash rate of 53TH / s and energy efficiency of 55J / TH.

Both S17e and T17e are equipped with a two-pipe heat dissipation system, which is reported to improve the equipment's efficiency in terms of its removal. This should increase the life of the equipment and its stability.

What's more, Bitmain also claims that the software embedded in the two new ASICs has higher cyber security standards to prevent malicious attacks.

The company also announced compensation for late delivery. Under this new initiative, customers whose deliveries are delayed will receive compensation from Bitmain in the form of coupons for each day of delay.


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed on the ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $175.25 - $183.43. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $207.64
WR2 - $195.13
WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09
WS1 - $169.04
WS2 - $156.97
WS3 - $149.69


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 11th. The real bitcoin dominance index reaches 95%

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 10, the BTC rate fell to the correction level of 76.4% ($9788), which is the first goal on the way to the upward trend line, according to my expectations outlined in previous forecasts. The breakdown of the "cue ball" quotes from the indicated level will allow the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world to rise slightly, however, in general, I expect a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9566) and the trend line. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. I also remind you that according to the John Bollinger's forecast, "if the bulls fail to significantly improve their positions this week (meaning last week), then Bitcoin will face a serious drop, down to the levels of $4000 - $5000". I believe that the bulls were not able to leap up, the downward trend kept the BTC from strong growth. Now, let's see if the upward trend line of Bitcoin can keep from a strong fall.

Meanwhile, Blockstream CEO Adam Back reports that the bitcoin dominance index is currently returning to normal levels of 90%. Back says that until June 2016, this index never dropped below 99%. The real value of the index is now 95% if we exclude from the calculations the stablecoins and USDT (cryptocurrency tied to fiat money).

"The brilliant forecast" was made by the Head of ShapeShift crypto exchange Erik Voorhees. He believes that the BTC cryptocurrency will grow above $20000 per coin by the end of the year, but immediately declares that "he usually makes mistakes in forecasts." Voorhees believes that any cryptocurrency is a long-term project and extremely speculative. Thus, Voorhees advises every investor to own bitcoins but to realize that it can completely devalue and the "bubble" will burst. The international interbank system SWIFT does not consider bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be competitors. The only cryptocurrency that SWIFT does justice to is Facebook's Libra. All other cryptocurrencies cannot affect the sphere of payments in the short term, according to SWIFT.


Overall results:
Bitcoin continues to fall in price, although not too fast. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The BTC rebound from the level of 76.4% allows to expect small growth of quotations, but the untrained goals of about $9566 and $9350 are forced to expect a decrease. If bitcoin, as I expect it, reaches the bottom line of the triangle, then the fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided around it.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling a cryptocurrency with the targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci),$9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $ 9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). About the first goal, you can partially take profits or exit transactions and wait for the situation to develop.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a drop in the price of the "cue ball".



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350
11 September 2019

Industry news:
The intraday polarity in the bias of Gold and Bitcoin showed an uneasiness of investors towards putting money in the latter. Morgan Creek Capital co-founder & partner Anthony Pompliano in June projected monetary easing policies as breeding grounds for bitcoin bulls, stating that a drop in the value of fiat currencies would create demand for non-sovereign assets/currencies like bitcoin. Meanwhile, noted economist Alex Kruger said that only speculators – for now – can drive the price of bitcoin higher, not institutional investors..

Technical view:


Bitcoin did exactly what I expected yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

Black lines - Channel

Green falling line – Expected path

Most recently, I found that there is first lower high and lower low on 4H time-frame, which is indication that short-term down trend is gaining power . There is also rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which adds more potential downside. I still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary.. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, The level around $10,000 looks like a decent sell zone if you already don't have sell on Bitcoin.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Jay Clayton, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gave information in a television interview about the regulator's latest approach to Bitcoin ETFs.

In an interview, the President of the SEC stated that while significant steps were taken to address regulatory problems in relation to the investment fund, "work remains to be done".

"Given that they are traded on largely unregulated exchanges [...] how can we be sure that these prices are not subject to significant manipulation? Now we are making progress, but people had to answer these difficult questions to be sure that this is the right kind of product, "he said.

Clayton mentioned earlier that the commission was working to make Bitcoin ETF an option for US investors, but highlighted the need for security on regulated markets, saying:

"We do it, but there are a few things we need to feel comfortable with. The first is trust: trust has long been a requirement in our markets, and if you say you have something, you really do have it," he said finally.


Technical Market Overview:
Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit (61% Fibonacci at $9,882), the BTC/USD pair is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,244
WR2 - $11,525
WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260
WS1 - $9,607
WS2 - $8,906
WS3 - $8,306


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 12 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Mastercard began working with Blockchain R3 to develop a cross-border payment solution.

According to a press release published by Mastercard, both companies plan to pilot a new cross-border payment solution using Blockchain technology. The system will focus on connecting global infrastructure for faster payments, systems and banks.

The announcement is part of Mastercard's plans to strengthen the cross-border payment network, building on the acquisition of the global payment company Transfast, which took place earlier this year. The partnership with R3 is part of the payment giant's strategy, where customers choose the method of transferring funds.

"Developing a new and better solution in the field of B2B cross-border payments by improving global connectivity in the area of the account - the account is key to the ambition of Mastercard. Our goal is to provide global payment and communications infrastructure, as evidenced by our recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including our relations with R3, "said Executive Vice President of the new Mastercard payment platforms, Peter Klein.

The partnership builds on previous relationships between the two companies, which also came out publicly earlier this month when Mastercard joined the Corded R3 Marco Polo Network to finance trade.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $207.64
WR2 - $195.13
WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09
WS1 - $169.04
WS2 - $156.97
WS3 - $149.69


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019