Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast and trading signals for Ethereum on February 15

Ethereum, H1 time frame:


Ethereum tried to update its absolute highs several times last week in the H1 chart. Some ended up lucky, but some didn't. The quotes of this cryptocurrency started to decline after a new high near the level of $ 1872 was formed. Traders finally started fixing profits on long positions, which led to its decline to the level of $ 200. It was previously mentioned that 10% per day for any cryptocurrency is a usual inactive Monday. Therefore, the main question now is, will Ethereum prices move below the Senkou Span B line and the upward trend line? So far, it is these limits that maintain the upward trend. If they do not resist, then a strong downward movement will most likely occur, which will be justified by technical factors.

Last time, it was recommended to buy Ethereum if a rebound occurs from the Kijun-sen line, but it did not happen. It was also suggested to sell it if the price breaks the critical line and it has been generated. Thus, now, traders should be in short positions with the Senkou Span B line and trend line as targets. Moreover, the Senkou Span B line has already been worked out, so sell deals can be closed now and wait for the formation of new signals.


Ethereum, M15 time frame:


Both linear regression channels turned down on the M15 chart, which confirms the formation of a corrective mood on the hourly time frame. Thus, we are now monitoring how the price behaves near the Senkou Span B line. The first attempt to break through this line was unsuccessful, which is clearly evident in the illustration.

At the moment, traders are introduced to the opinions of various people who are very important for the economy and the cryptocurrency segment in order to form a long-term opinion and long-term forecast regarding cryptocurrencies. As an example, Elvira Nabiullina gave her comment on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and other popular tokens just the other day. In her opinion, they are not currencies, as they are too volatile and are used for questionable transactions. And although she acknowledged that people have an interest in cryptocurrencies, there are still high risks.

On another note, the beginning of the correction for all major cryptocurrencies may be the beginning of a long decline. It was already mentioned during the previous week that the reason why the price of cryptocurrencies grew is almost exclusively due to one factor – "Elon Musk factor", who gave several comments regarding these coins, and also purchased Bitcoin for $ 1.5 billion. However, any exciting news fades and so, the usual harsh everyday life begins. Traders do not yet see how to form new long positions. There were no new reports that any major company decided to follow the example of Tesla. Accordingly, new data will be needed that will contribute to the further growth. The good news for cryptocurrencies is that such news is not a problem. As we can see, comments in social networks may well provoke a strong growth in the market.

In any case, there are two trading ideas for February 15:

1) Buyers still take the lead, as the price continues to be above the Senkou Span B line and the trend line. Thus, it is recommended to buy Ethereum again if the price rebounds from the Senkou Span B line ($ 1661) or a trend line with targets set at the levels of $ 1757 and $ 1871. In this case, profit-taking can take up to $ 160 per lot. It is also possible to buy it, with a target of $ 1900, if traders successfully consolidate above the Kijun-sen line ($ 1762).

2) Bears managed to correct Ethereum by $ 200. Now, their main task is to continue attacking the bulls in order to consolidate below the Senkou Span B line ($ 1661). If this happens, it is possible to sell this cryptocurrency with a trendline target. Once this trend line breaks down, it will serve as a signal to open short positions with targets of $ 1557 and $ 1487. In this case, Take Profit can be up to $ 196 per lot.


Explanations for illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. It is possible to place Take Profit levels near these levels.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the H1 and H4 time frame.

Support and resistance areas – areas where the price has repeatedly rebounded.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin on February 15

Bitcoin, H1 time frame:


Bitcoin began its downward correction in the H1 chart. And if Ethereum was corrected by $ 200, which is more than 10% of its value, then Bitcoin was corrected by $ 2000, which is less than 5% of its value. Thus, we have the right to expect a deep correction and even a downward trend in Ethereum, but on the "cue ball", a small pullback can only be seen after the next update of the absolute highs. The technical picture indicates that traders are currently preventing Bitcoin to move even below the critical Kijun-sen line, which is located in the nearest area of the price. Thus, a rebound from this line can provoke the continuation of the upward movement. It should also be noted that the price has fallen to the level of $ 46,300 several times recently, and the two previous attempts ended with rebounds and upward reversals. Therefore, it is very possible that the leading cryptocurrency will move up. During the previous review, it was recommended to buy it if it breaks through the level of $ 48233. However, the cryptocurrency did not grow for long after this signal was formed and so, it consolidated back below this level, which could bring small losses to traders. In turn, it was recommended to sell Bitcoin if it consolidates below the level of $ 45879, but it did not happen.


Bitcoin, M15 time frame:


Only the lower linear regression channel turned down in the M15 chart. Thus, Bitcoin's price is unlikely to further decline. In addition, this time frame shows that the price spent more than an hour below the Kijun-Sen line, so either it was a false breakdown, or the price will slightly move down.

There were discussions that large companies will also make new large purchases after Tesla bought out $ 1.5 billion of Bitcoin. And although there were no official announcements about new large transactions for the purchase of "cue ball", there are reports from time to time that this or that company or bank may start investing in cryptocurrencies soon. For example, it became known yesterday that one of the world's largest investment banks, Morgan Stanley, is considering investing in Bitcoin in the amount of about $ 150 billion. This was announced not by an independent expert in social networks, but by the Bloomberg news agency, citing its own sources. To make a transaction of this volume, the bank will need the permission of the relevant authorities, however, if such a transaction takes place, then the main digital coin may surge extremely. If the cryptocurrency rose by at least $ 5K on the news of Tesla buying 1.5 billion bitcoins, then what will happen to the price if Morgan Stanley invests 150 billion?

This kind of news is necessary to provoke the continuation of further growth of the cryptocurrency. If the demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, then its price will further rise despite all the statements of "cryptocurrency experts" like Nouriel Roubini, Elvira Nabiullina and other critics. What's more interesting is in which direction and with what force the quotes will move, and not how much Bitcoin will cost in a year or two. Most likely, it will collapse by 80% within a few months, as it has already been. But it is too early to discuss this. So far, there is an upward trend that needs to be worked out.

In any case, there are two trading ideas for February 15:

1) Buyers are still controlling the cryptocurrency market and are ready to push Bitcoin to new highs. Since the cue ball remains above the Kijun-sen line ($ 46756), it is recommended to buy Bitcoin, with the targets at the extremum levels of $ 482334 and $ 49600. In this case, the total profit-taking can be up to $ 2300 per lot. However, the quotes have consolidated below the critical line in the M15 chart, which makes it confusing. Thus, one should not rush to make new purchases.

2) Bears are still resting and are waiting for the bulls to leave the market. If the price consolidates below the Kijun-sen line ($ 46756), then it is possible to open short positions, with the target of the trend line. This can bring a profit of up to $ 3500 per lot. However, it is necessary to carefully monitor any news of the cryptocurrency market, since it can be recalled that one tweet from Musk led to a price growth of $ 5,000.


Explanations for illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. It is possible to place Take Profit levels near these levels.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the H1 and H4 time frame.

Support and resistance areas – areas where the price has repeatedly rebounded.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for February 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The CME exchange announced in a tweet on Sunday that the ETH futures would appear at 18:00 ET on Sunday with "the first trade date on February 8".

The ETH CME futures contract was announced in mid-December and was received with great enthusiasm by investors. According to the contract details published on the CME website, the futures contracts are cash settled and based on the CME CF Ether-Dollar reference rate. Each monthly contract is 50 ETH - an amount worth approximately $ 78,000 - with a minimum deal size of five contracts.

In a tweet on February 7, analyst Alex Kruger said the futures launch was accompanied by optimism given the overall institutional demand for ethereum, which he added is a "beta" asset following bitcoin.

Ryan Watkins of Messari agrees. It claims that the market conditions are currently very different to those we dealt with in 2017 and the institutions will not be rushing to sell ETH.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $1,873 and then reversed lower towards technical support located at $1,677. This low was violated during the sell of and the new local low was made at the level of $1,650. The market made a Pin Bar candlestick pattern as the levels below $1,700 were bought back up and the market is currently trading around the level of $1,750 again. The up trend is intact and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,900.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,286
WR2 - $2,080
WR1 - $1,977

Weekly Pivot - $1,768
WS1 - $1,663
WS2 - $1,454
WS3 - $1,346


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for February 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Institutional investors' appetite for bitcoin seems to be growing every day. Companies currently have over 460,000 BTC, representing 3% of the total supply of cryptocurrencies in circulation. The data shows that 24 entities have accumulated more than 460,500 BTC to date, which is equivalent to $ 22 billion at the current price of bitcoin.

This figure excludes the 3 million BTC that were lost forever. Mike Novogratz estimates that if institutions continue to buy at the pace they have been doing so far, there may be a shortage of BTC soon in relation to the huge demand.

The current list of BTC holders includes MtGox K. K., which has nearly 141 690 BTC (USD 6.6 billion), of course it is difficult to consider this stack in terms of investment. Next comes Block.one with an estimated value of 140,000 BTC ($ 6.5 billion). MicroStrategy has approximately 71,000 BTC ($ 3.3 billion). Last week, Tesla joined the list, having bought 38,500 BTC for around $ 1.5 billion.

Tesla's recent investment decision has largely contributed to BTC's market capitalization exceeding the value represented by the electric car maker, reaching the ninth position among all tradable assets.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $49,598 and then the slide down occurred. The local low was made at the level of $45,641, but the market still trades inside of the main upwards channel. The next obvious target for Bitcoin is $50,000. In the meantime, the local technical supports are: $45,902 and $43,720. However, if the market is out of the main channel and the price is below the level of $43,125 ( overbalance level), then the chance for a deeper correction are high, so please keep an eye on this levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $65,941
WR2 - $57,841
WR1 - $54,644

Weekly Pivot - $45,671
WS1 - $42,441
WS2 - $34,081
WS3 - $31,183


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $50,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

OSC approves the launch of first Bitcoin ETF



On Friday, the Ontario Securities Commission approved the launch of the world's first Bitcoin-traded fund, giving investors greater access to cryptocurrency and sparking an explosion of trading interest.

As a result, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $ 49,000, growing by about 63% this year and by about 1.130% since mid-March 2020. The growth was also influenced by the American banking group BNY Mellon, which said it has formed a division that will help clients store, transfer and issue digital assets.



"There is clearly some nervousness at this level," OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said. He pointed out that a correction could occur shortly after reaching the target level which is $ 50,000.

Meanwhile, Tesla announced on Monday that it had bought $ 1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, and soon they will accept it as a form of payment.

And as mentioned above, the OSC has approved the launch of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF.

"The ETF will be the first in the world to directly invest in physically hosted Bitcoins. It will provide investors an easy and efficient access to the emerging asset class of cryptocurrency," Purpose Investments said.

Investors were able to trade Bitcoin using futures contracts on the CME derivatives exchange. They can also buy closed-end funds such as the Bitcoin Fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Now, ETFs can offer investors some benefits. For example, lower fees.

According to Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, since 2013, eight firms have tried unsuccessfully to create a Bitcoin ETF in the United States.

But the Securities and Exchange Commission appears to be paying particular attention to issues related to market manipulation.

"While some expect that the approval of the Canadian ETF will pave the way for short-term approval of US ETF, we expect the new SEC to take its time to consider some new filings from VanEck and others," Rosenbluth said.

VanEck is a New York-based investment management firm.

In January, US President Joe Biden appointed Gary Gensler as the new Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The cost of bitcoin once again updated the historical maximum

While the whole world was celebrating February 14, bitcoin quotes again crept up after a small stop in the area of $ 47 thousand. As a result, the first cryptocurrency updated its historical maximum, for the first time in history, stopping at $ 49.4 thousand. The reason for this growth was the news about the next major investment in bitcoin from a giant financial company.

The investment company Counterpoint Global, which is a structural division of the financial giant Morgan Stanley, is showing interest in bitcoin. This division of the bank is engaged in the search for companies and assets that show significant growth and great potential. After the announcement from Counterpoint Global, the price of bitcoin went up and the asset rose by 7% during the day, reaching a record high of $ 49.4 thousand. As of February 15, the cryptocurrency quotes are held at the level of $ 48.8 thousand.

Attachment 4446

It is not surprising that only the news about the interest of such a giant in the cryptocurrency market caused a big stir in the market. Bitcoin continues to grow in value and become an increasingly attractive asset for financial conglomerates such as Morgan Stanley, Tesla, and Bank of New York Mellon. The main digital asset is moving in the direction of large investments from world-famous companies, which will bring stability to its position in the market, as well as generate greater confidence from retailers.

Experts predicted bitcoin to reach the mark of $ 50 thousand only by the end of the month, but as of February 15, the cryptocurrency is already a step away from this mark. Given the overall dynamics of the growth of the price of the main digital asset and its confident position, the value of bitcoin will continue to grow with minor drawdowns in the indicators. Bitcoin consistently updates the maximum value only against the background of announcements and favorable news, but when it comes to investment operations, the value of the asset will go into space. This will affect the growth of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, which responds to the constant growth of the main digital.

Given the gradual introduction of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into financial structures around the world, the assumption that at the end of 2021 the value of the main digital currency may reach $ 200 thousand seems slightly underestimated. And the cryptocurrency market in terms of total value may well take a swing at the top 3 in terms of global capitalization, surpassing Microsoft and Amazon.




Attachment 4447
Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Traders lose whopping $2 bln amid slump in crypto market on grim Monday

The crypto market has been thriving over recent weeks. Ethereum and bitcoin set new records in terms of market capitalization every week. However, spikes in popular cryptocurrencies are followed by steep downward retracements. This is what happened in the early morning on February 15 when traders around the world lost almost $2 billion amid a steep fall in digital assets.

Over 300,000 traders in various crypto exchanges saw their stop loss orders triggered to avoid massive losses. The least lucky speculator who wanted to gain on bitcoin's rally lost nearly $21 million over the weekend. Such a sharp drop happened following a new historic high of the most popular cryptocurrency. On Friday, bitcoin briefly touched $49,700 per token. Unfortunately, it sank to the level of $45,500, having shed 3%.



A slump in bitcoin's value dragged down the whole crypto market. Over 90% of closed positions were long trades. It means that traders were betting on a further bullish run of cryptocurrencies. However, in light of a deep correction, crypto exchanges had to close long positions to prevent more losses.



Bitcoin is to blame for a crash of all popular cryptocurrencies. Ripple decreased to $0.53 per token. Litecoin plummeted to $197. The second traded cryptocurrency, Ethereum, nosedived to $1,716. Meanwhile, all digital currencies are regaining footing in confidence. A sharp downturn in the crypto market exposed big problems such as extreme volatility of digital currencies and growing dependence of the market on bitcoin. To be honest, a fall in the price of the number one cryptocurrency did not come as a bombshell. Experts warned that such a steep fall would be imminent once bitcoin has conquered lately the all-time peak. This particular case reveals that bitcoin's drop of no less than 5% made a serious impact on the whole crypto market, thus bringing investors huge losses.



Crypto fans may argue that the market is just facing a downward retracement of the most popular cryptocurrency and this will hardly dampen the overall market sentiment. The problem is that the new historic record and the following slump of 3% took place like a flash. Such developments again bring up the question about extreme volatility of digital assets.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Morning review of cryptocurrencies on 02/15/21

The weekend was volatile for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin and Ethereum updated historical values, but failed to gain a foothold higher. The rest of the coins added significantly in price, but they had lost almost all of their growth today. The technical guidelines have changed. Let's look at them in detail.

Bitcoin could not gain a foothold above the local resistance level of 48178.13, despite the fact that for some time it was fixed above it. After the downward correction, the support for BTC USD remains at 46040.10 for now. Today's recovery may return the pair to historical highs if the level of 48178.13 is broken from the bottom up.



Bitcoin Cash was distinguished by a rapid growth over the weekend. The price of BCH USD has consolidated above the level of 611.50. After the downward correction, the nearest target for the pair's recovery will be the level of the maximum values of the Asian trading session on Monday. A consolidation above this mark will open the way for Bitcoin Cash to the next resistance level of 835.86.



During the downward correction, Ripple lost not only the positions gained over the weekend, but also part of Friday's growth. So far, the local horizontal of 0.5345 is working as support, and the resistance is at the level of 0.6387 (blue dotted line). The further dynamics of XRP USD will depend on whether the boundaries of this range will stand or one of them will be broken. We will probably get more clarity on this issue by the end of the day.



At the moment, Ethereum was approaching the resistance level of 161.8 on Fibo Expansion, located near 1891.64. During the subsequent downward correction, the price of ETH USD fell to the level of 1697.27 but bounced up. It is worth noting that on the four-hour chart there is a hint of the formation of a downward trend. But until the resistance held at the highs of 1874.20 - 1851.95 is confirmed by a rebound down for the third time, it is too early to draw conclusions about the downward trend. The probability of updating the historical highs for the second cryptocurrency is not yet completely excluded.



Litecoin also rose strongly over the weekend. LTC USD quotes at the moment reached the local resistance level of 228.90, and during the subsequent downward correction, they found the support level of 195.06, the breakdown of which turned out to be false. Now the direction of the pair will depend on whether it will be possible to break through the intermediate mirror resistance level of 205.25 or the price will bounce down from it.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for February 15 - 16, 2021: Key level $47,150



The Bitcoin (BTC / USD) is at the top of a wave of positive sentiment, as it prepares to break above $ 50,000.

This volatile weekend Bitcoin (BTC / USD) reached a new all-time high at $ 49,568, expectations put Bitcoin in the spotlight again for many companies.

On the other hand, the strength of the US dollar continues to falter. The US Dollar Currency Index (USDX) is trading above the psychological level of 90, jeopardizing the strength of the dollar and this could favor Bitcoin, pushing it towards the $ 50,000 target.

On the technical level we note that the BTC / USD is trading below the SMA of 21 around $ 47,150 this level is key, because below this level we could expect a correction movement towards the support zone of $ 43,750.

On the other hand, a consolidation above $ 47,150 will open the way to the $ 50,000 area that coincides with Murray's 8/8, this movement is very likely to happen in the short term.

Our recommendation is to keep in mind the SMA of 21, if the price of BTC is above buy and if it is below Sell.


Support And Resistance Levels For February 15 - 16, 2021

Resistance (1) $49,971
Resistance (2) $51,170
Resistance (3) $52,934

Support (1) $47,201
Support (2) $45,437
Support (3) $44,430



Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum could move above $1,900 if resistance at $1,830 breaks.

Ethereum remains in a medium-term bullish trend. Price made an all time high last week at $1,872 and then pulled back towards $1,650 today. However bulls stepped back in and pushed price close to Daily highs.



Blue line - resistance

ETH/USD is challenging short-term resistance at $1,800-$1,830. Breaking above this resistance trend line will open the way for a move to new all time highs. Support at $1,650 is key for the short-term as a break below it could signal more weakness ahead and a possible pull back towards $1,350. Price is closer to short-term resistance so bulls should not get overconfident. A rejection at $1,800 will push price towards $1,750.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021