Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Major resistnace on the test
03 September 2019

Bitcoin Daily:


According to the daily time-frame I found that BTC is approaching strong resistance zone at $10.800-$11.200. I would be very careful going long near the critical resistance. I would watch for selling opportunities near these levels and potential downward reaction.

Black horizontal line – important resistance level

Red horizontal line – Resistance 2

Purple downward sloping line – Moving resistance

My advice is to watch for potential bear divergence on 4H time-frame and try to sell near the critical resistance zone $10.800-$11.200. Only in case of the strong upward break I would watch for long positions. The level at $10.300 looks decent for first downward target and then $9.950.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 3rd. Above $11000, it will be hard to leave bitcoin

Bitcoin – 4H.


Yesterday, Bitcoin was completely not part of the planned scenario. The brewing bearish divergence was canceled, the rebound from the correction level of 76.4% ($9788) did not happen, but the closure over the upper line of the downward channel was performed. One good thing is that there was no signal in the form of a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%, therefore, Bitcoin should not be sold. At the moment, the quotes of "cue" have consolidated above the level of correction 61.8% ($10256), which allows traders to expect continued growth in the direction of the level range of $10907 - $11089. However, there is also a new bearish divergence (brewing) in the MACD indicator, which allows you to expect a reversal down and some fall in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Based on this, buying bitcoin right now is not recommended.

Yesterday, I talked about the opinion of John Bollinger, who believes that there is a high probability of the beginning of a long-term downward trend in bitcoin. However, the creator of the well-known indicator of technical analysis also admitted that if the bulls show their pressure this week, then the fall in BTC will be postponed indefinitely. Now, Peter Brandt, a well-known trader and technical analyst, expressed his opinion on the prospects of the "cue ball". In his Twitter, he said that there are grounds to claim that the price has entered the fourth cycle of parabolic growth, and now is the last days to buy BTC at a low price. Brandt immediately issued another super-optimistic forecast, stating that the ultimate goal of parabolic growth is $100,000. A few years ago, no one could have imagined that "bitcoin" will reach the level of almost $20000. So the long-term forecast of $100,000 may come true someday. I still believe that the analysis of bitcoin should primarily use technical indicators. And they do not yet give reason to assume such strong growth. Though, maybe, in the next few days, the situation will change.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a consolidation at the Fibo level of 61.8%, but bearish divergence casts doubt on further growth. I recommend selling cryptocurrency if it closes at 61.8% ($ 10,256), and the bearish divergence is not canceled, with the target of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci).

I recommend buying bitcoin with the target area of $10907 - $11089, and with a stop-loss level of $10256, if MACD closes above the bearish divergence peak.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

How autumn can inspire crypto traders and give confidence to the crypto market, Bitcoin (September 3)

The end of August was not the best period for cryptocurrency. So what are we waiting for in the new season, will Bitcoin grow?

I welcome you, crypto enthusiasts and crypto-hamsters, it's been a week since our last review. So what has changed in the market? The remarkable $ 9800/10500 platform, to which many people paid attention, was broken in the downward direction by a massive red candle, of course, there was a foundation of information here. So, theories appeared that this platform and the subsequent descent were provoked by large players on the eve of the closing of futures on the CME exchange on August 30. The following theory, in principle, follows from the first, and it is associated with the celebration of Labor Day in the United States and Canada, September 2, where, according to this version, trading volumes could be reduced and operations began to close in advance. Although, the extreme theory does not follow from the first two. Here, the idea is a little different, and so, it is called "Summer 2018".Who worked on the stock market in the past year, remembers how great everything began increasing, and by August, the picture was radically changed, with the result a stunning decline up to $3156 BTC by the end of 2018. Thus, the theory stems from the fear of repetition, and when everyone can see that Bitcoin is going down, while the index of "Fear" storming new lows, somehow arbitrarily fixing is available.

Digest of the past days:
For several days in a row, the media actively looted the topic of the national cryptocurrency of the PRC, that it was supposedly already ready and the People's Bank of China would present it on November 11th. The crypto-yuan will be distributed by large banks of the country, as well as Alibaba and Union Pay. The news is actually shocking, although information about the upcoming token has been around for quite some time. Therefore, by the end of last week, a rebuttal appeared. The financial regulator called all the rumors "inaccurate and speculative" regarding an early launch. However, the fact that the work is ongoing and there is already a high degree of readiness of the cryptocurrency, confirms its representative Mu Chanchun. In any outcome, this news is sent to the crypto industry.

The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton, said that his agency is not going to amend the securities law for the blockchain industry, but it does not intend to impede its development.

The ECB has published a new report on the crypto industry. In particular, there is an analysis of cryptocurrencies, the so-called stablecoin. In the report, the ECB divided stablecoins into four main groups and concluded that stablecoins need a more advanced management system so that they can become more popular. The report can be found here.

In the United States, they are preparing to consider the proposal of the financial Integrity Network (FIN) consulting company regarding the regulation of crypto-currencies in accordance with the bank secrecy law.


So autumn has come, and what should we expect from it?

In the fall, we are waiting for stimulating factors in the form of launches of a number of crypto projects, which against their background can support the crypto industry and, as a fact, give optimism to traders. So, on September 23, the launch of the platform for institutional investors Bakkt will take place, where they can replenish their bitcoin deposits from September 6. Institutional investors have always been considered guides to market trends, so let's hope that they will bring us a new round in an upward trend. The next factor comes to us with the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, which plans to launch trading in futures contracts with 20x leverage in September, which will certainly increase trading volumes and can help provide an incentive for the growth of the cryptocurrency market. The last factor in this review is the long-awaited TON token from the well-known Pavel Durov. There is information that the launch of the main TON network is scheduled before October 31. This factor can stimulate the crypto industry and give a new round of fresh capital to the cryptocurrency market, which will directly affect the course of the leading cryptocurrency BTC.

What we have now is that the first BTC crypto-currency grows by more than 12% in five days, where the main move occurred just after the onset of autumn (September 1). There are a number of assumptions regarding the continuation of Bitcoin growth, and so, one of the most interesting theories is the news that the BTC growth coincided with the announcement of restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency in Argentina. According to the document, large exporters will need permission from the Central Bank of Argentina to purchase foreign currency and transfer it abroad. Individuals, in turn, will not be able to buy more than $ 10,000 per month. Such measures will be valid until December 31, 2019.


What are the assumptions for further development?

The first thing that catches the eye is that the quote has returned back to the framework of the recent platform 9800/10500, concentrating at the upper border. So, in the case of a clear breakdown ($ 10,500) while maintaining the inertial course, there are real chances for further growth in the direction of $ 11,000 - $ 12,330. Yet, it's too early to talk about this, since the freezing within the cluster has considerable chances. We are waiting for confirmation so that we don't run into a false puncture. In any case, the breakthrough price (September 1-3) encouraged crypto-traders and, possibly, cryptozyme will still be postponed for a longer period.

Key coordinates for the upward stroke: 12330; 13130; 13970.

Key coordinates for the downward stroke: 10000; 9400; 8500; 7500.

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we see that the market volume for a short period of time collapsed to a critical level of $ 245 billion, which reflects the indicators of the beginning of summer 2019, after which the volumes recovered, but still are in the same lateral fluctuation. Compared with the previous article, capitalization increased by $ 5.8 billion and currently amounts to $ 267.8 billion. If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings are 272 ---> 281 ---> 320 ---> 356 ---> $ 385 billion.


The index of emotions, which is the same fear and euphoria of the crypto market, has grown from 30p. up to 41p., which is already not bad. Let me remind you that in August, we will observe twice the catastrophic index indicator with minimum 5p.


Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all the main time periods signal an upward trend, which reflects the current course. It is worth taking into account such a moment that, in the event of freezing within the framework of accumulation 9800/10500, indicators will take their previous positions - a versatile signal.




Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 04 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The German version of the world-known fast food chain Burger King now accepts payments in Bitcoins on the website with deliveries and in the mobile application.

Bitcoin has recently appeared among payment options on the official German Burger King website and in its mobile application. It is not clear, however, whether Bitcoin is also accepted in physical Burger King restaurants in Germany, which have over 600 locations in this country.

According to the Crunchbase information website, Burger King currently operates in over 13,000 locations, serving over 11 million visitors daily in 98 countries around the world. The site also estimates the annual revenue of the fast-food giant will be $ 1.7 billion.

In the summer of 2017, Russian Burger King announced that it will start accepting payments in Bitcoins, and then introduced its own virtual currency Whoppercoin at the end of August. Also in 2017, Bitcoin was first accepted by another Burger King in Arnhem, a city in the Netherlands.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $10,733 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated. Anyway, now is time for a correction and the levels for the corrective pull-back are $10,222, $10,164, $9,999 and $9,820.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,528
WR2 - $11,079
WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753
WS1 - $8,875
WS2 - $8,358
WS3 - $7,589


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 04 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Dutch Central Bank today announced that it will start regulating companies offering cryptocurrency services from January 10, 2020.

According to financial media, De Nederlandsche Bank explained that relevant companies in this sector must register with the institution if they want to continue their activities.

"Specifically, companies offering cryptocurrency and regular money exchange services as well as cryptocurrency wallet providers must register with De Nederlandsche Bank"- we read in the official statement of the bank.

Dutch ministers urged the government of the country to regulate cryptocurrencies and some cash payments because of concerns about money laundering. In January, Dutch Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra received an official recommendation from the Dutch Financial Markets Authority and De Nederlandsche Bank that a cryptocurrency service licensing system should be introduced.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still trading below the short-term descending trendline, so only an impulsive move above the trendline can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair. The breakout level would be around the level of $182.00 which is a technical resistance as well. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $214.26
WR2 - $203.46
WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24
WS1 - $152.37
WS2 - $142.84
WS3 - $121.31


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Major resistnace held successfully
04 September 2019

Bitcoin 1H time-frame:


Yellow rectangle – Downward objective

Pink trendline – Expected path

Black lines – Resistance levels

Bitcoin on the 1-hour did exactly what I expected yesterday and that rejection of the strong resistance at $10.800, which is good sign for the further downside. I placed Pitchfork channel to find potential objective for the downward movement. There is a chance for the re-test of the $9.400. Still, investors are involved in Gold and Silver on the upside and I don't see any indication of any larger demand for the Bitcoin, which is sign that there is more potential downside.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found test of the major resistance, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential test of $9.400. Thus, I recommend selling crypto currency with a target of $9,400, with a Stop Loss level of $11.000.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 4th. Bearish divergence stops the growth of bitcoin

Bitcoin 4H.


On Tuesday, Bitcoin tried to continue growth in the direction of the peak of August 20. But the resulting bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the quotes of the "cue ball" to suspend its growth. Now, I expect a decline in the BTC rate to the correction level of 61.8% ($10,256), from which the growth began the day before. I still think that under the current conditions of fundamental factors, bitcoin's growth is small, despite all the stunning forecasts of crypto experts who predict an increase of almost up to $100,000 per coin. However, no news would cause additional demand for BTC or, conversely, the sale of "cue ball". Thus, I am more inclined towards the option with consolidation below the Fibo level of 61.8% and a further fall. However, this option, like any other, needs to find confirmation.

Also, an important factor in the possible fall of bitcoin in the coming days and even weeks is the fact that trading volumes are not growing recently, respectively, the market does not have an influx of new investors. There are no "hamsters" or one-day investors. The last important technical factor: since August 6, each subsequent top of the quotes is lower than the previous one, which means the weakening of the bulls' positions in the market. Accordingly, much depends on the peak of August 20. Its breakthrough will give strength to the bulls, and then Bitcoin can soar to $12,260.

The bitcoin information background is now empty. Yes, cryptocurrency can respond to the next Fed meeting, on which Powell may again lower its key rate. It can react to a new escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China, if it, of course, happens. It can respond to any geopolitical tension. But so far this is not all, and it is unlikely that the news about the theft of 200 BTC with the help of a modified bitcoin wallet interests traders.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8%, but bearish divergence casts doubt on further growth. I recommend selling cryptocurrency if it closes at 61.8% ($10256), and the bearish divergence does not cancel, with the target of $9788 (76.4% Fibo).

I recommend buying bitcoin with the target area of $10907 - $11089, and with a stop-loss level of $10256 if the closing is performed above the peak of the bearish divergence at CCI.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 05 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
American investor and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, Anthony Pompliano, argued that Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Peace Prize for inventing Bitcoin.

"Satoshi should win the Nobel Peace Prize. After all, we have a currency that can take the status of a global reserve without having to engage in violence," Pompliano wrote in a tweet published on September 3.

Pompliano's proposal faces the obvious obstacle of the legendary disappearance of Nakamoto at the end of 2010 - which caused almost as much speculation and keen interest as the cryptocurrency that he, she or they invented on October 31, 2008, with the publication of the Bitcoin White Paper.

Apart from pragmatic considerations, Pompliano's argument is based on the conviction of many avid cryptocurrency supporters that domestic fiat currency is essentially based on violence - their hegemony is based on a history of coercion, centralized control of supply and a monopoly of power.

After the Second World War in the last century, America's rise to the global economic superpower meant that the dollar was transformed into a global reserve currency - both reflecting the priority of the country and as an instrument by which to determine the puncture.

Thanks to the invention of decentralized cryptocurrencies from the last decade - as well as more recent information that technology giants such as Facebook are now trying to opt for the technology that underlies their own creation of their own digital currency networks - traditional monetary policy managers are probably facing unprecedented challenges.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal local high at the level of $10,773 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The market is still developing the local pull-back in the wave (2) and when finished a new higher high should be made with a target at the level of $11,068. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated. Anyway, now is time for a correction and the levels for the corrective pull-back are $10,222, $10,164, $9,999 and $9,820.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,528
WR2 - $11,079
WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753
WS1 - $8,875
WS2 - $8,358
WS3 - $7,589


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 05 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Christine Lagarde, candidate for president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that central banks and financial regulators should protect consumers, but also be open to innovation such as cryptocurrencies.

During the opening statement, Lagarde told the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs that central banks and financial regulators should be open to the opportunities of change.

"For new technologies - including digital currencies - this means paying attention to the risks of financial stability, privacy or criminal activity and ensuring that regulations are in place to focus technology on the public good. But it also means recognizing the wider social benefits of innovation and enabling them to develop, "she said.

She also promised that if she became President of the ECB, her priorities would be involved in the institution's mandate and agility, social inclusion, and diversity. All this while ensuring that institutions quickly adapt to the rapidly changing environment.

In February, Lagarde said that cryptocurrency regulation is "inevitable" and necessary at the international level. In April, she also said that Blockchain innovators "shake the traditional financial world" and have a clear impact on current players.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still has hit and reversed from the short-term descending trendline around the level of $182.00, so only an impulsive move above the trendline can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair. The price went down towards the technical support located at the level of $172.82 and is currently testing it from above. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $214.26
WR2 - $203.46
WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24
WS1 - $152.37
WS2 - $142.84
WS3 - $121.31


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 5th. Christine Lagarde supports the development of blockchain technologies

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 4, bitcoin felt great, updating the peak of the previous day and not falling during the day. However, two bearish divergences in the CCI indicator predict a fall in bitcoin in the coming days. Plus, do not forget that BTC has a strong resistance zone above, formed by the correction level of 23.6% and the peak of August 20. This zone is now extremely important for the prospects of bitcoin. If traders gain a foothold above it, it will mean a high probability of further growth of the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world. If it does not close higher, then John Bollinger's forecast may come into force, which predicted a fall to $4000 - $5000, if the bulls do not activate this week and do not make a rapid and big step forward.

Important news for Bitcoin was the speech of Christine Lagarde, who will take over on November 1 as Chairman of the Board of the European Central Bank. She urged other Central Banks not to exert pressure on cryptocurrencies to protect consumers as much as possible. Lagarde believes that blockchain is an extremely important technology for the modernization of the financial system. At the same time, Lagarde notes the high risks to the existing financial and banking systems. She believes that cryptocurrencies can destroy financial institutions and cause an economic crisis. Also, cryptocurrencies can destroy the banking systems of developed countries and completely replace fiat money in developing countries. The reason for this position is that in most poor countries, it is dangerous to keep cash at home or even in banks. Poverty and high crime rates often lead to savings theft as well as confiscation by the state. Cryptocurrencies are safer in terms of savings in such states.

Meanwhile, China launched June digital testing. Thus, the National Bank of China rejects the idea of total control or, in the future, will develop and implement certain tools that will allow controlling the movement of "crypto-yuan". The digital yuan is expected to enter circulation by the Chinese new year.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8%, but 2 bearish divergences cast doubt on further growth. I recommend selling cryptocurrency if it closes at the level of 61.8% ($10256), with a target of $9788 (76.4% Fibo).

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as there is not much left to the target and very strong area.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019