Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Is it already possible to buy bitcoin?

Many hedge funds moved amid the rise in the price of bitcoin to the level of $39,000, which is just below the large resistance of $41,100, acting in addition and the upper border of a wide sideways channel.

As the saying goes, "during the gold rush, sell shovels". This is exactly what hedge funds are doing, seeking to get rich by investing in cryptocurrencies with only one condition – they invest money not in the cryptocurrency itself, but in platforms and exchanges created for buying, selling, and storing virtual currencies.



Against this background, many regulators are increasingly wondering what protection companies working with crypto assets should offer investors in order to attract the attention of such large investors. Apparently, in the near future, this area will be subject to strict regulation, so the tightening of the rules that apply to such companies seems inevitable. On the other hand, digital currency regulation will help it grow and make it something more than just an electronic code on a computer.

Against this background, investors invest money in such companies with the expectation that in the future one of them will become the next Amazon.com Inc. or Alphabet Inc.

Many people associate the current growth of bitcoin with the appearance of ads from Amazon.com Inc., about vacancies related to hiring employees to work in the crypto industry. This caused rumors that the company may make bitcoin an additional means of payment for its services by the end of the year, and may also issue its own digital token.

Similar attempts have already been made by Facebook, and we remember how it ended - the sharp indignation of the American regulator and Zuckerberg's rejection of this idea.

The job posting announced by CoinDesk says Amazon is looking for a head of "digital currency and blockchain strategy." Analysts are also wondering if the move could ultimately lead Amazon to accept bitcoin as a payment method. It is worth noting that today's surge in the market has brought cryptocurrencies back to life, the volatility of which has decreased tenfold after the May collapse. Enthusiasm has been further shattered by harsh regulations in China and criticism of miners for the negative impact on the environment.

This jump in bitcoin may be the last before its hike to the level of $20,000, which apparently everyone has already forgotten, although a couple of weeks ago only everyone was talking about it. But we will talk about the technical picture below.

It is noteworthy that according to the latest data, more than $940 million of cryptocurrency shorts were liquidated on Monday - the maximum since May 19, which does not yet indicate an increase in interest in buying bitcoin. At the very least, this can secure BTC from the breakdown of $29,000 for a while. But do not get into euphoria, most likely that the closing of short positions for such an amount was associated with margin calls due to high leverage.

Returning to the topic of investing and hedge funds, it is worth recalling that most recently, the FTX crypto derivatives exchange raised $900 million from more than 60 investors, including Paul Tudor Jones, Alan Howard, and Izzy Englander. These guys are also investing in Block.one, a blockchain software company. The $55 billion Paul Marshall Foundation Marshall Wace LLP is a sponsor of Circle, a digital payments firm that is part of the consortium behind the USDC stablecoin. In general, while the market is storming, large investors see it as a serious prospect, which gives a chance for the development of the industry in the near future. Don't miss this moment too.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, a sharp breakout of the $35,900 level and growth to the $39,000 area leaves quite a lot of hope that the bulls will once again test resistance at $41,100 in the near future. A breakout and an exit beyond this range will open a direct road to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. If the pressure on bitcoin returns in the near future, the bulls will need to try not to let BTC go below the $36,700 support since a lot depends on it. If the rate goes below this level, most likely the pressure on the world's first cryptocurrency will return, and we will see the support update for $33,300 and then a retest of $29,200, which will be the last blow to the hopes of buyers for the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency. So far, everything is turning in favor of the bulls. Let's see what happens to volatility next.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin broke through $38,000 mark and provoked massive elimination of shorts

The cryptocurrency market ended the previous trading week on a strong positive. Elon Musk revealed SpaceX's investment in bitcoin, BTC broke the $33,000 mark, and the FTX crypto derivatives exchange attracted a historic $900 million investment. The new week began for the cryptocurrency market with a powerful bullish breakout. Bitcoin rose 11% and broke through the $38,000 mark for the first time since mid-June. Due to the powerful upward movement, an unspecified number of bears were forced to return to their dens until better times.

As we have already noted, the growth of BTC indicators did not guarantee the growth of asset quotes, since the two-month depression in the market changed the psychology of the players. The number of bears in June and July continued to grow, and the market did not believe in a bullish outcome of this situation. However, as is often the case, the bottom line was in contrast to the market sentiment. A similar scenario of the development of events already took place in the spring, when large players manipulated the market through large volumes of coins.

A similar situation happened with the bears, which bet the asset on a further collapse in quotes. As a result, a sharp jump in the value of bitcoin caused the forced elimination of shorts, which were concentrated along a wide line of fluctuations. The total losses of traders per day amounted to $1 billion. Over 102,000 positions were liquidated, of which 88% were shorts. The largest loss per trade was $29.3 million. In total, traders lost $850 million due to bearish sentiments in relation to bitcoin.

As of 10:00 UTC, the cryptocurrency has confidently consolidated above the round mark of $38,000. The asset continues to consolidate the price in this area, and the convincing local dynamics of the price growth indicates the success of this event (+1.2%). The cryptocurrency managed to expand its audience and social activity, thanks to which the daily trading volume increased to $39 billion. However, there is every reason to believe that a large percentage of manipulative audiences has entered the market, which may be eliminated after the next rebound.

In general, the asset has formed a positive indicator of the price change for the week (+20%) and is moving towards the retest of $40,200, where the main resistance zone is concentrated. If the coin manages to break through this milestone and break out ahead, then the final chord of bearish ambitions will be the breakdown of the $46,000 mark.



The main technical indicators of bitcoin indicate the continuation of the upward movement. Right now, the market is undergoing a strong impulse, which is reflected in the increased volumes of daily trading and the RSI indicator, which is above 80. At the same time, the MACD is high above the zero level and is moving confidently upward. The Stochastic Oscillator is one step away from the formation of a bullish crossover, while the fear and greed index is gradually moving towards the green zone. If the current market sentiment persists and the number of skeptics continues to decline, then bitcoin has every chance of ending the bearish period in the cryptocurrency market.




In addition to the surge in activity, BTC/USD quotes managed to make such a powerful breakthrough thanks to the local news background, which encouraged investors. First of all, the market players were influenced by the meeting of the main influencers of the cryptocurrency market: CEO of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk, CEO of ARK Invest Cathie Wood, and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. The said meeting became a kind of summing up of a certain stage of the development of the crypto market and, in general, produced a positive effect. Elon Musk announced the imminent resumption of the use of bitcoin as payment for the carmaker's products due to the increased environmental friendliness of the mining industry. Jack Dorsey announced the large-scale introduction of the first cryptocurrency into the Twitter infrastructure. Cathie Wood did not lag behind her colleagues and expressed confidence that over time BTC will become more environmentally friendly than the traditional sector of the economy.

Also, do not forget about other fundamental factors that cause a relatively high interest in bitcoin. The global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the demand for risky assets continues to be high. Moreover, the ability of bitcoin to hedge risks also remains in demand, especially now, with a gradual transition to the growth phase. If the market does not experience a powerful bearish impulse comparable to the ban on mining in China, the market will continue to develop a bullish mood. However, the question of setting new historical highs will only be possible when bitcoin is beyond 45,000, which now looks like a bit of an adventurous statement.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 26,.2021 - Buying climax and potential for sideways-downside rotation in play

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upwards but I found the buying climax and extreme condition, which is sign that there is potential for the sideways movement or downside reaction.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential downside rotation towards $36,000 due to extreme condition and buying climax.

Watching for exits on the long side due to buying climax is preferable strategy.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and potential for the downside rotation...





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Younger generation should resist latest trendy investments like cryptocurrencies and SPAC



The younger generation should not invest in the latest trends like cryptocurrencies and SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company). Instead, they should stick to safer investments, advised financial professionals.

Dan Keady, chief financial planner at the Teacher Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA), said young investors are very much attracted to the above-mentioned investments because they think they have plenty of time to recover from a bad investment decision. They forget that safe investments are better because it takes as long as 30-40 years before those could take off.

But if investors really feel compelled to participate in such markets, Keady said they should consider it as a form of entertainment and limit their investments to how much they can afford to lose.

"If you are investing enough money to negate your long-term goals, do not confuse this with a financial plan. Oftentimes, when you have something extremely speculative, it ends badly," Keady said.

Meanwhile, Clark Kendall, CEO of Kendall Capital, said the future of cryptocurrencies is too unpredictable and SPACs are simply too risky for the average investor. He argued that the two rallied only because during the pandemic, people had extra money and time to monitor what was happening online.

To put it simply, this is why investors should avoid cryptocurrencies and SPAC:

1. Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and other cryptic assets have recently come under increased scrutiny due to environmental concerns associated with the vast amounts of electricity required to mine certain types of coins, not to mention they are the preferred payment method for ransomware attacks. They also fluctuate a lot in price, making them too risky for retirees. Bitcoin, for example, has ranged from $ 9,088 to $ 64,863 over the past two years. It recently traded around $ 30,000 and fell below that level last week.

"The technology is impressive, but we also know it's hard to predict what will happen in the future," Keady said.

2. SPAC - It starts with no assets or an operating business, and raises money through an initial public offering. It uses funds to buy another business. After an IPO, the SPAC management team typically has two years to complete the acquisition, which must be approved by SPAC shareholders. If management fails to complete the acquisition within two years, it must return the SPAC funds to the investors. When the acquisition is complete, the management team usually receives 20% of the company's capital through "founder shares".

Kendall said SPAC investors are worried because there is a chance that if management runs out of time to complete the acquisition, it may agree to a deal that is not in the interest of shareholders.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Amazon may start accepting payments in bitcoins



The sharp increase of bitcoin's quotes is clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe. Just a few hours ago, it became known what triggered the strong growth of bitcoin. The thing is that the list of positive statements for bitcoin was intercepted by Jeff Bezos, who said that by the end of 2021, his company Amazon may start accepting payments in bitcoins, and it may have its own cryptocurrency in 2022. To be more precise, Jeff Bezos himself has nothing to do with it, since this information is from an insider. The source is not named, but it is reported that he is very familiar with the company's plans. It also became known that Amazon is currently looking for a specialist in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology to join its staff. The insider reports that the introduction of payment in bitcoins is just the beginning, the very top of the cryptocurrency project that Amazon is planning. It is also reported that not only Bitcoin will be integrated into the Amazon payment system. Ethereum, Cardano, and Bitcoin Cash must also be connected.

Thus, for the second day in a row, the market has been reacting to news of a purely verbal nature and is far from always confirmed. For example, Elon Musk's statement that Tesla can accept payments in bitcoins again caused a new growth of bitcoin, but market participants can't help but remember that Tesla has already accepted payments in cryptocurrency exactly one month ago. The head of Ark Invest, Cathie Wood, made many compliments to bitcoin and said that residents of the whole planet will now be able to make payments anywhere in the world, even where there are no banks. Jack Dorsey, the head of Twitter, believes that bitcoin will become the global currency of the whole world. Now, Amazon's plans have been revealed. But all this information cannot be considered more important than, for example, the actions of the Chinese authorities or the potential tightening of regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere in the United States. From our point of view, bitcoin has risen in price again solely on the joyful expectations of investors that now bitcoin will start growing again and very soon it will cost $100,000.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes have started a new upward trend inside the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. And at the moment, we have already practically worked out the upper limit of this channel, to which only about $1,000 remains to pass. Thus, it is around the level of $40,700 that the future fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided. We believe that after such a strong growth, which is not too justified by fundamental factors, a new decline to the level of $29,700 will follow. But in the case of overcoming $40,700, the upward movement may continue, and traders will be able to buy bitcoin with a target of $43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Research into the opportunities and challenges of central bank digital currency (CBDC) is ongoing in 81 countries, while five countries have fully implemented the digital version of their currency, according to a new Atlantic Council tracker.

The Caribbean region is home to all five currently used CBDCs, with the Bahamas, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and Grenada already implementing their digital currency systems.

As the tracker shows, CBDC is in a pilot phase in 14 other countries, including South Korea and Sweden.

Formed in 1961, the Atlantic Council describes itself as a non-partisan organization that seeks to promote US leadership on a variety of global issues. The CBDC tracker, which was unveiled on July 22, currently monitors 83 countries and currency unions.

Among the countries with the four largest central banks - the United States Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England - the United States is the most lagging behind in CBDC development.

The Federal Reserve has been researching CBDC for several years, and chairman Jerome Powell indicated in January that developing the digital dollar was a "very high priority" in the fight against financial crime. Meanwhile, New York-based Fed Bank president John Williams believes that the emergence of cryptocurrencies is posing tough questions for central banks.

China recently indicated that foreign visitors will be able to use the digital Yuan at the 2022 Winter Olympics - provided they share their passport details with the central bank. A group of US senators, including Bitcoin supporter Cynthia Lummis, called on US Olympians to boycott the digital Yuan, to which Beijing responded with US senators to "stop causing trouble."


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the trading range and is getting closer to this month's high at the level of $2,405. The recent high was made at the level of $2,395, but the bears were active at this level and pushed the price back under the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $2,370. If the momentum will keep going up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,405 and $2,453. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,880
WR2 - $2,525
WR1 - $2,386

Weekly Pivot - $2,056
WS1 - $1,1912
WS2 - $1,571
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Protesters calling themselves the "Popular Resistance and Rebellion Block" came out against the Salvadoran government, which passed a law making Bitcoin legal tender. Local media shows Salvadorans carrying banners saying "no to Bitcoin" on the streets of San Salvador demanding the repeal of national Bitcoin law.

In a letter released during the protest, the group claimed that President Nayib Bukele passed a law that makes cryptocurrency legal tender in the country without proper consultation with citizens. The volatility of Bitcoin was also pointed out when comparing cryptocurrency investing to playing the lotto: "betting on the lottery is a voluntary act, while Bitcoin is required by law."

However, the group's main allegation about the Bitcoin legal framework appeared to center around a perceived imbalance in government cryptocurrency use compared to the average El Salvadoran resident. Protesters said Bitcoin "only serves some big businessmen, especially those linked to the government, to launder ill-gotten money."

"Bitcoin would facilitate public corruption and the activities of drug, arms and human traffickers, blackmailers and tax evaders. It would also cause monetary chaos. It would hit people's wages, pensions and savings, ruin many MSMEs, affect low-income families and hit middle class "- we read.

Although it was passed by the Salvadoran government and signed by Bukele in June, the law recognizing Bitcoin as the legal currency in the country will not enter into force until September 7.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the trading range and is getting closer to this month's high at the level of $40,000. The recent high was made at the level of $39,706, but the bears were active at this level and pushed the price back under the technical resistance seen at $39,413. All the Fibonacci retracement levels had been violated as well and if the momentum will keep going up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $40,454 and $41,749. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $36,552.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,519
WR2 - $38,542
WR1 - $36,989

Weekly Pivot - $33,120
WS1 - $31,521
WS2 - $27,666
WS3 - $26,112


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin shocked the cryptocurrency market and grew by $5000 in a few hours



Bitcoin rose by $5,000 in just a few hours on Sunday (or rather, on Monday). Thus, it turned out to be near the upper border of the side channel, which we have repeatedly called. Although such a rapid growth of the quotes of bitcoin was not expected, we still considered the option with a rise to the upper limit of the channel of $29,700 - $40,700. Thus, in some ways, it is good that bitcoin soared to the upper limit of the channel so quickly. Now, the situation created around bitcoin can be resolved much faster. If the cryptocurrency overcomes the level of $40,700, the chances of continuing the upward movement will increase several times, despite the fact that the fundamental background for bitcoin remains quite weak. However, this does not mean that there can be no growth in principle. It should be remembered that even if the news is absolutely negative, bitcoin can grow at any time, because it is market participants who control bitcoin, and not the fundamental background. It's just that it is usually the fundamental background that influences the mood of market participants. However, nothing prevents traders and investors from starting powerful purchases of cryptocurrency again and raising it to absolute highs once again.

Today, on Monday, it is also necessary to understand as soon as possible what happened in the world that the BTC rate soared up that night. It is unlikely that these are the consequences of the same conference where Elon Musk, Katie Wood, and Jack Dorsey spoke. So, most likely, something important happened. The question is, will this crucial happening continue to push the cryptocurrency up further, or will the price turn around near the upper border of the side channel and start a reverse movement to the level of $29,700? It can be recalled that most cryptocurrency experts have recently been inclined to believe that bitcoin will continue to become cheaper in 2021. The reasons were the repression of miners in China, uncertainty with the tightening of cryptocurrency legislation in the United States, and the ban of bitcoin in some countries of the world. And by and large, nothing urgent has happened yet. The price continues to remain inside the same side channel in which it spent more than 2 months before. Thus, you should definitely not panic. The correction scenario for bitcoin remains the main one at this time.



"Technically, bitcoin bounced off the level of $29,700, so it can now continue to move up with the target of $40,700." This is yesterday's forecast phrase. As you can see, it has almost come true, since bitcoin reached the level of $39,670 today. Thus, today, the level of $40,700 can be worked out. In case of a rebound, "digital gold" will remain inside the side channel and begin a new round of downward movement to the level of $29,700. If the level of $40,700 is overcome, the upward movement will continue with the target of $43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk and Katie Wood backed Bitcoin



The picture of recent months is especially visible on the 4-hour timeframe. Firstly, it is clearly seen that the cue ball quotes in recent months are strictly between the levels of $29,700 and $40,700. That is, we have a lateral channel, albeit a fairly wide one. Local trends are regularly formed within this channel. For example, the last downtrend (marked with a downtrend line) ended just yesterday as the price broke it. Thus, at this time, traders have the right to expect the continuation of the growth of bitcoin approximately to the middle of the side channel, that is, to the level of $36,500. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been growing for five days in a row, we do not believe that all of a sudden good prospects for the coming weeks are opening up in front of it. By and large, the only thing that has happened recently and that could support the demand for bitcoin is The B Word conference, at which the head of the Ark Invest investment fund Katie Wood, the CEO of Tesla and Space X Elon Musk and the head of Twitter Jack Dorsey spoke. It was their comments that could spark the demand for Bitcoin. "Could" - because it is not 100%. By and large, the comments of Jack Dorsey and Katie Wood are not very important. For example, the head of Ark Invest said that bitcoin will become much more energy efficient than the mainstream financial services and gold mining industries. She praised the transition of bitcoin from non-renewable energy to "green". In her opinion, many investors support the principles of "green energy", and bitcoin will allow payments to residents of those regions where there is no banking service. Jack Dorsey, in turn, said that the main idea of bitcoin is that there is money that is not controlled by states. According to Dorsey, bitcoin can and should become the global currency of the entire Internet and be available to everyone on the planet. The head of Tesla Elon Musk, in turn, said that, perhaps, it was his company that had a negative impact on the growth of energy consumption. After Tesla announced the purchase of bitcoins, its price increased significantly, and the volume of mining increased. However, according to Musk, any green energy technology does not make Bitcoin mining 100% clean. All the same, there remains a fairly large number of miners who use the electricity obtained from burning coal - "the dirtiest energy source in the world." Musk also noted that he and his companies Tesla and Space X own bitcoins and conduct transactions in cryptocurrencies, and in the near future the ability to pay for Tesla electric cars with bitcoins may be returned. All this news had a favorable effect on the cryptocurrency rate, but how much Bitcoin will grow on it? Hardly long...



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes began a new upward trend within the side channel of $29,700-$40,700. Thus, the first target is now the level of $36,500, and the next $40,700. We are skeptical about the new growth of bitcoin, but now all technical factors speak in favor of its strengthening. There is no upward trend line at the moment, but in any case, a new fall of the "cue ball" can be expected a little later.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mike McGlone: Bitcoin is more likely to return to $60,000 than continue to fall



The main cryptocurrency in the world has risen in price by the end of Saturday by $1,500. In total, the growth of bitcoin has been going on for the fifth day and during this time it has managed to grow by $5,500. This is not the highest record value of growth, but it is still quite impressive. The most important thing now is to figure out the future prospects for bitcoin. Recall that the overwhelming majority of experts expect bitcoin to continue to fall in price over the coming months. Moreover, looking at the 24-hour timeframe, it becomes clear that now a new downward trend is forming rather than vice versa. The current growth is still too small to qualify for the status of the beginning of an uptrend. However, we also cannot fail to note that the price for the third time failed to overcome the important level of $29,700, so the current growth is partly quite logical: the price did not overcome an important support level, so a new round of growth began. Recall that in the past few months the price has been mainly between the levels of $ 29,700 - $ 40,700. That is, we have a kind of side channel. Accordingly, in the coming weeks, the price may tend to the upper border of this sideways channel.

At the same time, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that Bitcoin has a much better chance of returning to the level of $60,000 per coin than falling to $20,000. McGlone explained his conclusions with technical patterns and stated that bearish sentiment prevails when quotes hold 30% below the 20-week moving average line. The analyst also said that the current picture is very similar to the situation in 2019, when Bitcoin started at $ 4,000 and rose to $ 14,000. Do recall that a conference dedicated to cryptocurrencies was recently held, during which Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Katie Wood spoke, who in general spoke very flatteringly about Bitcoin and said that a great future awaits it. It was after this conference that a new round of strengthening "digital gold" began. However, we still do not believe that Bitcoin will be able to start a new upward trend from its current position. It should be remembered that the period of consolidation after the completion of the bullish trend can take from one year to several years. During this time, the price can not only fall, but also rise. Therefore, the current growth of 5,500 dollars does not mean anything yet.



Technically, bitcoin bounced off the level of $29,700, so it can now continue to move up with a target of $ 40,700. It is far from the fact that the price will reach this level, since there are no significant fundamental reasons for such a strong growth in bitcoin now. By and large, and now bitcoin is growing only on the optimistic statements of the heads of Tesla, Twitter and Ark Invest. Thus, we expect bitcoin to return to the $29,700 level in the next couple of weeks and try to overcome it again.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021