Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC analysis for July 29,.2021 - Key resistance at the price of $41.00 on the test

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $40,185. Key resistance is set at the price of $41,000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential breakout or reversal from key resistance.

Reversal of the resistance at $41.000 can lead the price towards $33,500

The successful breakout of the resistance at $41,000 can lead price towards $45,000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Profunds launches first Bitcoin mutual fund



Investors who do not want to own bitcoin through a digital wallet or exchange now have a different mechanism to gain access - a traditional mutual fund.

Profunds launched a Bitcoin mutual fund on Wednesday, which offers access to cryptocurrency through futures contracts. It is the first open-ended mutual fund or exchange-traded fund that aims to track the price of Bitcoin in the US, with the minimum investment being just from only $ 1000, and an expense ratio of 1.15% .

The fund plans to invest in futures contracts for the coming months, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The idea is to roll over the proceeds from each expiring contract to the next month.

The scheme of work is as follows: for example, the spot price of Bitcoin is $ 39,750 and the contract for next month, which expires at the end of August, costs $ 39,850. The fund would buy the contract (at that price) and make a profit if Bitcoin exceeds $ 39,850 at the expiration of the contract. But if the price is lower, the fund will lose money. And after the expiration of each contract, the fund will transfer the proceeds to new ones.

However, one problem is that the Bitcoin spot price may differ from the actual futures of the coming months. But spot price yield simulations have shown almost accurate projections, even though they do not include transaction fees, taxes and other costs.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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A sharp outflow of bitcoins was recorded from the Binance exchange



Bitcoin has worked out the important level of $40,700 and is now trying to decide what to do next. A lot will now depend on the belief or disbelief of the majority of market participants in the ability of bitcoin to continue growing. Indirectly, the fact that about 14,000 bitcoins were withdrawn from the Binance exchange on July 27, and another 30,000 were withdrawn on July 28, speaks in favor of a new drop in bitcoin. In total, all the bitcoins sold are worth about $1.6 billion. These are serious figures for the exchange rate of the main cryptocurrency, as they can provoke an avalanche effect. Such large sales of bitcoins indicate that not all market participants believe in the continuation of the growth of bitcoin. Consequently, other owners may follow the example of unknown investors. It is also noteworthy that large sales of bitcoin occurred when the price of the cryptocurrency itself came close to the level of $40,700. It is with the achievement of this level that the closing of long positions can be associated. However, experts also say that the outflow of users may be associated with the new rules of the exchange, according to which the daily limit on the withdrawal of bitcoins was lowered. Stricter rules were introduced for unverified users, so investors could simply leave Binance in favor of other cryptocurrency exchanges.

Also, not the most rosy news came from the head of Mobius Capital Partners, well-known investor Mark Mobius. In an interview with Bloomberg, he said that governments are increasing pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, and the law may eventually defeat bitcoin. Thus, the current situation may be a temporary surge of optimism before a new collapse. According to Mark Mobius, many companies and individual investors may now rush to make money on bitcoin before governments (in particular the United States) tighten the rules for regulating the cryptocurrency sphere even more. When this happens, black times may come for all cryptocurrencies. Mobius also voiced the idea that we have already said many times. According to the investor, a high interest in bitcoin is maintained due to numerous incentive programs that increase the amount of money to people. Thus, when the incentive programs are completed, it will be very difficult for bitcoin to generate new demand.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes continue an upward trend inside the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. And at the moment, we have worked out the upper limit of this channel. Thus, the future fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided around the level of $40,700. We believe that after such a strong growth, which is not too justified by fundamental factors, a new decline to the level of $29,700 will follow. But in the case of overcoming $40,700, the upward movement may continue, and traders will be able to buy bitcoin with a target of $43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 29, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Iran's Electricity Generation Organization, Tavanir, has issued a warning regarding the entry of Chinese crypto miners into Iran. The state-owned company shared its concerns in correspondence with the Central Task Force for Combating Smuggling of Goods and Foreign Currencies.

In a letter published by online media, Tavanir CEO Mohammad Hussein Motevallizadeh referred to media reports of mining plant closings in China. According to a report quoted by the English-language financial daily, the government's offensive against the sector could push Chinese miners to other countries.

Calling for stringent controls to be put in place to prevent a massive influx of mining companies and coin-mining equipment from China to Iran, Motevallizadeh stated:

"Lower electricity costs make Iran attractive to Chinese miners. They will likely start smuggling mining equipment to us."

Cryptocurrencies are growing in popularity in Iran with many citizens investing amid rising prices over the past year. Cheap, subsidized electricity also catalyzed crypto mining, and the Islamic Republic recognized it as legal industrial activity in the summer of 2019.

Iran's importance as a mining site has grown. According to a study by the University of Cambridge, the country accounts for more than 4.6% of the global hashrate.

The energy-intensive minting of digital currencies has been among the main causes of electricity shortages and power cuts across the country this summer. Record high temperatures significantly increased the demand for energy.

In May, the government in Tehran announced that it would also block licensed miners during peak consumption hours. Meanwhile, Tavanir is engaged in illegal mining operations, seizing over 200,000 units of equipment in the past few months. The appliances were estimated to have used 750 megawatts of electricity, which is equivalent to the total energy consumption of five provinces, the energy company says.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made this month's high at the level of $2,435, but the bears were active at this level and pushed the price back under the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $2,370. The lower high was made at the level of $2,346 and it looks like a Pin Bar candlestick formation. The pair is now back inside the channel, but if the momentum will keep going up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,453. In order to continue the rally, bulls need to break through the level of $2,455. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $2,201 and $2,106.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,880
WR2 - $2,525
WR1 - $2,386

Weekly Pivot - $2,056
WS1 - $1,1912
WS2 - $1,571
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 29, 2021

Crypto Industry News
Senator and former US presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren believes the digital asset industry can be a tool to deal with some of the challenges in the traditional financial system.

The well-known crypto skeptic looks to have changed the rhetoric towards the industry. In a TV interview on Wednesday, she said digital currencies could be a tool for those without a bank account:

"Banks have failed to reach consumers across the country. Digital currency and CBDC may be the answer to this situation."

The senator emphasized that the existing financial system has many problems. She suggested that some cryptocurrency solutions could be a potential cure for these problems.

"We need to look at the crypto project to see where it could be better, but also to see where it might be a risk to the system," Warren said.

Warren's latest comment on cryptocurrencies came shortly after the senator described cryptocurrency players and enthusiasts as "a dark, faceless group of supercoders and miners."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair tries to resume the local up trend, but for now the rally paused around the level of $40,500, just below the key supply zone. If the level of $40,890 is violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $41,794 and $43,159. Those two levels are part of the key supply zone, so please be prepared for an increased bearish activity at this area. The technical support is located at the level of $36,336.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,519
WR2 - $38,542
WR1 - $36,989

Weekly Pivot - $33,120
WS1 - $31,521
WS2 - $27,666
WS3 - $26,112


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin has worked out the level of $40,700 and is ready for a new fall



Yesterday evening's summing up of the results of the Fed meeting in no way affected the rate of the first cryptocurrency in the world. Bitcoin has risen quite easily to the level of $40,700 over the past day, worked it out, and even bounced back. However, there is no rapid decline in quotes yet. In the last few months, bitcoin has always been inside the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. Thus, the working out of its upper limit and the lack of overcoming suggests that there is a high probability of the beginning of a new round of downward movement. Of course, we are dealing with the most volatile investment instrument. If we assume that most of the investors have already tuned in to purchases and believe that in less than six months, the bullish trend is able to recover, then bitcoin will continue to rise in price. But that's why the level of $40,700 is good. If there is a rebound, the probability of a new fall of bitcoin will be 70-80%. If this level is overcome, the probability of continued growth of quotes will be 70-80%. It is always worth listening to Elon Musk, since it is the CEO of Tesla who can easily and simply raise or lower the bitcoin rate by making loud statements. But no one can predict how Elon will distinguish himself tomorrow or in a week.

Therefore, for the time being, we proceed in our forecasts more from technical analysis and from the fact that the fundamental background for bitcoin has not changed in recent weeks. Support was received thanks to the conference "The B Word", at which many CEOs spoke in support of bitcoin. Among them were the head of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, the head of the Ark Invest investment fund, Cathie Wood, as well as Elon Musk. In addition, Elon Musk made several other statements outside the conference. However, all these are the words and faith in bitcoin of only three people. It is true that crowds of small investors are ready to follow these people, which often determine the mood of the cryptocurrency market. However, everyone understands that Tesla today can announce the possibility of paying for its electric cars with bitcoin, and tomorrow declare that bitcoin is not energy efficient and cancel the payment for goods in bitcoins. The same goes for Elon Musk. Today, he can say that bitcoin is the future, and tomorrow he can note that miners do not want to use renewable energy sources for cryptocurrency mining, which will bring down the bitcoin exchange rate. Thus, from our point of view, bitcoin still adheres to the correction scenario, which may last for the next year or two. It should be understood that the correction scenario does not mean that bitcoin cannot become more expensive in principle. Even over the past two months, bitcoin has worked out the $40,700 level several times, but it bounced down and fell to at least $31,000 each time.



Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700. The other day, there was a small pullback down, but at the moment bitcoin is again in an upward movement. We still expect that bitcoin will fall back to the level of $29,700 and try to overcome it again. Therefore, we believe that sales are more relevant now, at least until the $40,700 level is overcome.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Elliott wave analysis of Ripple for July 29, 2021



Ripple took a serious beating after peaking at 1.9670 in mid-April and the following correction has been much larger, than first expected taking back just over 78.6%. The fact that the correction from 1.9670 broke back below the peak of wave 1 at 0.7900 told us, that the corrective decline from 1.9670 couldn't be a wave 4 correction as one of the Elliott Wave Principle rules are, that wave 4 is allowed to break into the area of wave 1. Therefore we have counted the rally to 1.9670 as a sub-wave 1/ and the following correction as sub-wave 2/ indicating, that a much more dynamic rally is in store for us once sub-wave 3/ takes over.

A clear break above short-term resistance at 0.7331 will trigger a double-bottom and indicate, that wave 2/ is complete and wave 3/ to way above the peak of wave 1/ at 1.9670 is in motion.


Trading recommendation:
Buy a break above 0.7331 for a new impulsive rally to way above 1.9670. Stops need to go just below 0.5162 to begin with.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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US Senator Elizabeth Warren says cryptocurrencies should be taxable



US Senator Elizabeth Warren once again spoke about cryptocurrencies, in particular about bitcoin, and about the importance they have for the global financial ecosystem. The senator is sure that cryptocurrencies, as well as fiat funds, have a place to be and they should coexist with each other, but she believes that they should also be taxed. According to her, it does not matter where anyone keeps their funds, in fiat currency or in crypto assets-taxes should be collected annually everywhere.

Warren also stressed that cryptocurrencies can give a head start to many major global banks, which, according to her, could not keep their consumers and give them what they need, especially for the long term.

This is not the first time that the senator has spoken about cryptocurrencies. In June, Warren spoke in a negative way about cryptocurrencies and said that they are terrible investments and a hotbed of lawlessness and money laundering.

Therefore, she made it clear that Americans should use their national currency, and not stop using the dollar and switch to storing cryptocurrencies.

She stressed that bitcoin, like other altcoins, is very volatile - this can only work for small speculators and one-day investors, but not for ordinary citizens who are looking for a daily constant source of earnings to have money on hand here and now, and not think about the volatility of cryptocurrencies, that any small event from the outside can both raise the cryptocurrency in price and drag it into a deep bear market.

In addition to taxability and a hotbed of lawlessness, Elizabeth Warren is also concerned about the Proof-of-Work of cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin and its impact on the environment. Bitcoin requires huge computational activity, which consumes more energy than entire countries.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin looks optimistic. Everything will be decided by the mirror level

Bitcoin continues to grow, supporting major altcoins. As of this writing, the price has updated yesterday's high and appears to be trying to gain a foothold above the 38,610.88 level marked with a red dotted line.

This is the seventh bullish candlestick on the daily chart, the main cryptocurrency is confidently approaching the resistance at 41,980.24. And this is a strong mirrored horizontal, the upper border of a wide sideways consolidation range, in which bitcoin has been trading since a series of negative events.

This means that there is a high probability of a downward reversal. Nevertheless, strength testing is possible, although it is hard to believe in a true breakdown and consolidation above 41,980.24. But we will not renounce, you need to trade what you see, not what you think.

Nevertheless, I am inclined to believe that a strong fundamental driver will be needed to consolidate above 41,980.24. Predicting news is a thankless task, but anything can happen. The situations when someone influential like Elon Musk helped the technical picture near the key level are still fresh in my memory.

Meanwhile, the main news discussed today was the speech of Senator Elizabeth Warren.

In addition to her address to Jannette Yellen, she was interviewed by CNBC regarding regulations on the digital asset market. She said digital currencies can help where big banks have failed over the years. In particular, cryptocurrencies and CBDCs can do well in reaching consumers across the country.

The comments came as a surprise to many given her many statements against the crypto market and how its volatility puts traders at risk. She also wrote to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen yesterday, urging regulators to take immediate action to create regulations to bring cryptocurrencies into legal action.

Warren also noted that the US financial system is facing problems right now. But it is worth looking into cryptography to see how it can benefit traditional finance, as well as to identify the problems that cryptocurrencies can provoke.

The change in Senator Warren's position on cryptocurrency causes much confusion. After all, just 24 hours ago, she called the cryptocurrency a financial network controlled by "shadowy crypto super-coders".

In 2021, a massive introduction of cryptocurrency is expected from financial giants, institutional investors, and retail traders. However, Warren notes that it is small investors who suffer because of the lack of rules. She said that she does not want to wait until a lot of small traders and investors are completely wiped out.

Nevertheless, it will probably take a long time from statements to real actions. In the meantime, small traders should watch how the big players act and stay in the same direction with them.

P.S. We keep an eye on 41,980.24.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum price level analysis and expectations.

Ethereum made a triple bottom around $1,700 and is now trading at $2,287. Price has made a major low at the $1,700 area and has now changed short-term trend to bullish. Price has potential to reach $2,710.



Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement

Ethereum has most probably ended the downward trend from its all time highs at the $1,700 level. As long as price is above $1,700 we could see another bull run to new all time highs. First obstacle for bulls is the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $2,710. This is the minimum bounce target. If a new upward move has started the 38% retracement must be broken. Bulls should start a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Breaking above the Fibonacci retracement levels will each time increase chances of a new higher high. The most important Fibonacci levels are the 38% and 61.8% retracements. We usually see price rejection and reversals at these levels. So it is important for bulls to break these two levels.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021