Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin prices are falling. Are we going to 30,000?

Bitcoin's daily candle closed bearish on Thursday. Today, the main cryptocurrency resumes its downward movement but remains in a narrow sideways position between two levels: 38,610.88 (red dotted line) and 41,980.24.

The current news background is full of headlines about the next Binance restrictions and the dangers of tightening cryptocurrency regulation after Senator Warren's speeches this week.

These factors can be considered as catalysts for the decline. But what matters most are not these events but the fact that they overlapped with the technical picture, in which bitcoin reached the upper limit of the sideways 28,392.99 - 41,980.24.

The upper limit of this corridor has not been reached during the growth. But if we look closely at testing this level in the past, we will see that there is rather a zone of 40,977.38 - 41,980.24. And there was a reversal from this zone on Thursday.

In general, the previous forecast for BTC/USD has not changed. And so far, a reversal in the specified corridor down looks the most likely. Although, perhaps, this is only a small pullback caused by the closure of part of the longs before the new testing of 41,980.24 for strength. But there is no catalyst for this yet.

Meanwhile, the data provided by the analytics provider IntoTheBlock shows a sharp increase in daily large bitcoin transfers. We are talking about crypto-whales who buy bitcoin in the process of the current small rollback. (using BTC in the amount of more than $10,000).

According to the data presented, a huge number of bitcoins were transferred this week, daily volumes grew while the main cryptocurrency was approaching the level of $40,000.

During this time, the number of daily transfers reached 260,000 bitcoins for the first time since May 19, which is equivalent to $10,086,154,000.

Analysts call the fact that the whales accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency on the fall are probably moving it to cold storage based on Glassnode data on a sharp increase in over-the-counter transactions.

The news about Binance probably also contributed. Today, the largest cryptocurrency trading platform announced that it will stop providing trading services related to cryptocurrency futures contracts and other cryptocurrency derivatives in Europe. First of all, this action will affect three countries: Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy.

Against this background, two possible scenarios for the development of events for BTC/USD look like this: either an attempt to reach the level of 41,980.24 once again and test it for strength or a breakdown of the border of 38,610.88 (red dotted line) and a further decline in the wide sideways.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 30, 2021

Crypto Industry News
As of June 30, 2021, MicoStrategy had approximately 105,085 BTC with a carrying amount of $ 2,051 billion. Since the first purchase, the total non-permanent loss was $ 689.6 million.

Despite reporting a loss of $ 424.8 million for the second quarter of this year, MicroStrategy has committed to purchasing more bitcoins.

However, this is only a paper loss based on bitcoin's end-quarter price and does not reflect the realized loss. At the moment, everything indicates that the bitcoin investment has brought MicroStrategy nearly a billion dollars more than the amount spent on purchases.

The report for the second quarter was released yesterday. As of June 30, 2021, MicoStrategy had approximately 105,085 BTC with a carrying amount of $ 2.051 billion, with a non-permanent loss of $ 689.6 million since the start of the buying wave. The average carrying amount per bitcoin was an estimated $ 19,518.

Digital Asset Data has been calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) - a set of generally accepted accounting principles used in financial reporting. The company also provided a non-GAAP calculation, which in this report excludes "the impact of stock-based compensation costs and non-permanent losses and gains on the sale of intangible assets."

Non-GAAP data paints a different picture of MicroStrategy's digital assets, with a BTC cost base of $ 2.741 billion, but a market value of $ 3.653 billion, reflecting an average cost per BTC of $ 26,080 and a market price of $ 34,763 per day June 30.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen consolidating the recent gains around the level of $40,500, just below the key supply zone. If the level of $40,890 is violated (local high), then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $41,794 and $43,159. Those two levels are part of the key supply zone, so please be prepared for an increased bearish activity at this area. The technical support is located at the level of $36,336.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,519
WR2 - $38,542
WR1 - $36,989

Weekly Pivot - $33,120
WS1 - $31,521
WS2 - $27,666
WS3 - $26,112


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 30, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
One of the most popular icons of mass culture will emit NFT, the proceeds of which will be donated to charity. It is a brand of carbonated drink Coca-Cola, which NFT will be able to bid on OpenSea.

Coca-Cola has decided to launch a collection of digital collectors in connection with this year's International Friendship Day, which falls on Friday 30 July. Then, an auction of special "Friendship Boxes" will start at OpenSea, which will last for three days. Tafi, who has experience in creating digital clothes and avatars, and the Virtue agency are responsible for designing the NFT.

Those who manage to bid on the NFT Coca-Cola will receive, among other things, the sounds characteristic of the drink (including the sound of the bottle being opened) and a special jacket that they will be able to wear in the digital world of Decentraland. The income obtained from the sale of non-exchangeable tokens will be donated to the Special Olympics organization, with which the producer of the carbonated drink has been cooperating for many years.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made another local high at the level of $2,453 (at the time of writing the analysis) and keeps going higher. The high looks like a Pin Bar candlestick formation, so a pull-back towards the immediate technical support at the level of $2,336 is possible. The pair keeps trading inside the channel, but if the momentum will keep going up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,549. In order to continue the rally, bulls need to break through the level of $2,453. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $2,201 and $2,106.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,880
WR2 - $2,525
WR1 - $2,386

Weekly Pivot - $2,056
WS1 - $1,1912
WS2 - $1,571
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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IMF Director: Bitcoin cannot be considered money



During the past day, the bitcoin exchange rate has not changed. The quotes of bitcoin are still located near the upper border of the side channel, and traders and investors are wondering what to do next. We have already noted several times the importance and significance of the $40,700 level. From our point of view, the future prospects of BTC depend on this level. Thus, we can say that there has been a rebound from this level. If so, then a new powerful downward movement is expected to the level of $29,700, which is the lower boundary of the side channel. We have also already noted that the last round of cryptocurrency growth is somewhat accidental, since the fundamental background has not changed in recent weeks. However, faith in bitcoin and its growth can once again play into the hands of this cryptocurrency. But we are still inclined to a corrective scenario.

At the same time, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said that bitcoin cannot be considered money. In her opinion, the cryptocurrency may become a single means of payment in the future, but so far it is still very far from such an exalted status. As for El Salvador, where the authorities allowed the use of bitcoin along with the dollar as a state means of payment, the head of the IMF believes that this will complicate the process of collecting taxes and forming prices for various goods and services. Ms. Georgieva also noted that state digital currencies will become the most secure form of payment. Earlier, the IMF has already warned that the use of cryptocurrency as a state means of payment carries a number of risks for the economy. According to the IMF experts, countries that use bitcoin as a national means of payment will face difficulties in forming prices, as well as the inability to fight terrorism and money laundering. Thus, the IMF admits that bitcoin will continue to develop, conquering the traditional financial system, but warns that for states, the deep integration of bitcoin will mean a number of risks and problems. However, all this was known for a long time without the IMF. We have already said that bitcoin and its "counterparts", by and large, interfere with any state, since it is extremely difficult to track all the movements of all coins, as well as to find out what profit this or that entrepreneur received from investing in bitcoin, in order to then pull taxes off him. Thus, bitcoin can become a real problem for the tax authorities. That is why a number of large countries of the world have already completely banned bitcoin or its individual spheres, such as mining. Some countries are considering tightening the regulation of the circulation of cryptocurrencies. One way or another, central banks and governments of many countries of the world are unlikely to allow their own currencies to be displaced.



Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700. The other day there was a small pullback down, but at the moment bitcoin is again in an upward movement. We still expect bitcoin to fall back to the level of $29,700 and try to overcome it again. Therefore, we believe that sales are more relevant now, at least until the $40,700 level is overcome.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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The other day, about 13,800 bitcoins were withdrawn from the Binance exchange: Whales do not sit on the sidelines and accumulate even more BTC on cold wallets



Bitcoin continues to gain momentum, and it seems that nothing will stop the number one cryptocurrency from breaking the psychological barrier to overcome the resistance level of $41,700. If this level is overcome, then bitcoin may go into a long bullish movement.

The number one cryptocurrency is doing well after the backing of bitcoin by Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Katie Wood. Bitcoin has been bullish for about a week, with almost no drawdowns. In the outlook, a deep bullish trend may begin in the very near future.

About 13,800 bitcoins were withdrawn from Binance yesterday. In a statement, the giant exchange said that this is the largest bitcoin withdrawal from the exchange since April, when bitcoin was trading at $55,000-56,000.

When such large-scale bitcoin withdrawals occur, as a rule, it can mean that whales, as well as various speculators and even fly-by-night investors, begin to accumulate bitcoin. The sale of bitcoins ends, the panic is annihilated, and the process of hooting begins. Investors move bitcoin to their cold wallets for long-term storage.

Many analysts also expressed their opinion, complaining that such large-scale withdrawals of bitcoin from the exchange could happen due to the recent changes in the KYC rules, which were announced by the Binance exchange. It is worth noting that at the moment there is a massive outflow of bitcoins from some other crypto exchanges on the crypto market.

It is not surprising that large players in the market and whales with experience continue to accumulate bitcoin, but the good point is that both ordinary small speculators and novice investors who have just entered the crypto market no longer panic and do not sell bitcoin at the first opportunity, but also try to go to the melt. Investors want to move their savings to cold wallets or get special services for making a profit.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Chances of updating all-time high are growing

Bitcoin is trading around 40,000 per dollar and has yet to hit key resistance at 41,980.24. The fate of the main cryptocurrency depends on the behavior relative to this level. And you have to wait - it's too early to sell, and even more so to buy.

Today, a review of an analyst caught my eye, which notes that bitcoin is now in a do-or-die situation. According to the review, BTC/USD can grow sharply if it is possible to maintain the recent momentum, during which it rose by 17% this week, rising above $40,000.

Well, I agree. And the point is not only in the strong technical resistance, which is formed by the mirror level of 41,980.24 but also in the psychological price of $40,000.

Meanwhile, analysts at the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange say that the past week has been "explosive" and "a shift in market-wide sentiment seems to have turned some bears into bulls."

But they also point out that bitcoin will need to gain a foothold above the key psychological level of $40,000 for investors to feel confident buying more tokens and raising the price.

"Right now, bulls are in a do-or-die situation. Given the struggle of BTC to overcome the resistance from $40,000 to $42,000 in the past, they will need to confirm the level of $40,000 as support," the note says.

The analysts added, "The chances of bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by the end of the year have increased."

Moreover, the bitcoin market dominance index is approaching 50%. At the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap, bitcoin accounted for about 48% of the total cryptocurrency market. Earlier, JPMorgan crypto expert Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that when the bitcoin dominance index exceeds 50%, it will signal a transition to a bull market.

Experts note another bullish signal: the number of bitcoins on exchanges fell sharply on Wednesday, which suggests that large buyers are moving cryptocurrency to vaults.

But let's look at the situation from the other side. The outlook for tightening regulation may become the driver that, coinciding with the position of BTC/USD below the key resistance level of 41,980.24, will turn the price sideways down.

Yesterday's review noted that Senator Elizabeth Warren has begun pushing for tougher rules to protect consumers in a highly volatile market.

She wrote to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the US Financial Stability Oversight Council must "act quickly to use its statutory powers to address the risks of cryptocurrencies; market regulation needs to be introduced to ensure the safety and stability of consumers and our financial system."

The arguments in favor of bitcoin's growth are growing, but the technical picture on the chart is the field where you can understand the real state of affairs. You have to trade what you think, not what you see.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Consolidates Ahead Of A New Breakout!

Bitcoin changed little in the short term after jumping above a static resistance. Still, the bias is bullish, so the cryptocurrency could resume its growth after the current consolidation. BTC/USD is located in the buyer's territory, so further growth is favored despite minor and temporary declines.

Actually, a decline could help us to catch a new leg higher. We cannot exclude a potential drop after the most recent amazing rally. You can wait for a decline or look for new long opportunities around the current levels.


BTC/USD VERY ATTRACTIVE FOR BUYERS!


Bitcoin is traded at around the 40,000 psychological level at the moment. It tries to consolidate above the weekly R2 (39,533) which represented a static resistance. Stabilizing above this broken resistance could signal further growth.

The third warning line (wl3) is seen as potential dynamic resistance. The next major obstacle is represented by the 43,000 psychological level. You should keep in mind that Bitcoin is trapped between 43,000 and 30,066 levels. An upside breakout from this major range could really announce a bullish reversal.


FORECAST!
Personally, I would like to see a strong consolidation here above the R2 (39,533) followed by a new higher high and by a valid breakout above the third warning line (wl3) could signal a breakout through 43,000 as well. Jumping and stabilizing above this level indicates a broader growth.

Making a new lower low, dropping below 38,786.80 invalidated the bullish scenario and signals a potential drop towards the 36,000 level.




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for Ethereum for July 29 - 30, 2021: Buy above $2,280



Ethereum ETH / USD is in the zone of the 21 SMA after having reached the high of $2,400. It is now making a correction towards the support of the uptrend channel.

The eagle indicator, that measures market strength and volume, is showing a bearish signal. We believe that it could be a correction for a new bullish wave that could give momentum to the level of 4/8 murray around $2,500.

According to a new report from leading cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Ethereum's trading volume grew faster than Bitcoin's one during the first half of this year.

This data could be encouraging as many analysts believe that Ethereum will be the cryptocurrency of the future that could cost more than BTC.

Looking at the ETH chart, there could be bullish momentum. As long as it remains above 2,280, the 21 SMA zone, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at $2,420 and $2,500.

Conversely, if ETH consolidates below the 21 SMA, there could be a trend reversal and it could be a selling opportunity targeting the 200 EMA located at the $2,031 psychological level.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 29 - 30, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,450
Resistance (2) 2,396
Resistance (1) 2,326

Support (1) 2,235
Support (2) 2,181
Support (3) 2,019




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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XRPUSD stops advance at important Fibonacci retracement

XRPUSD has been moving higher over the last couple of sessions after making a low just above $0.50. Price has made a double bottom at $0.50 and is now challenging $0.72 resistance.



Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement

XRPUSD has reached once again the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This is important short-term resistance. In order for price to continue higher bulls will need to break above the $0.73 resistance. Next major resistance and upside target is at $0.8750. Support is at $0.61. Bulls need to respect this support in order to continue higher.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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How to make $28 billion from Bitcoin

The US plans to increase tax fees for cryptocurrency transactions. The bipartisan Senate deal on infrastructure development, developed by American President Joe Biden, provides for the introduction of stricter rules for investors in cryptocurrency. This was done to collect taxes that will be used to finance an ambitious program worth a total of $550 billion.

According to the plan, the new provisions will allow attracting an additional $28 billion in taxes from transactions related to cryptocurrency to the treasury. The proposal will apply more to brokerage companies that are engaged in providing access to cryptocurrency trading, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges. These companies will be required to provide more thorough information to the US IRS about transactions with digital assets, including virtual currencies and tokens. There is also a requirement that companies report cryptocurrency transactions worth more than $10,000.



The new cryptocurrency measures were an addition to the infrastructure deal announced on Wednesday, after weeks of debate between Republicans and Democrats over what costs to include in the deal and how to fund them. Closer attention to cryptocurrency transactions has been a priority for members of both parties, including the Treasury Department and President Joe Biden. Back in the May report, the US Treasury raised the topic of compliance with tax requirements in terms of cryptocurrencies. The Department of Treasury considered it necessary to take additional measures with respect to crypto assets to minimize the possibility of money laundering and concealment of income. Individual representatives of Congress recently stated that concerns about the transparency of the cryptocurrency have been growing for a long time, so this measure was added to the new plan for financing expenses.

The proposal was also received after a careful study of reports from law enforcement officials. To them, cryptocurrencies have increasingly become an area of tax fraud in order to hide income from the federal government. Some leaders of the cryptocurrency industry reacted negatively to this proposal and stated that certain companies that would seem to fall under this provision do not have the ability to collect such information that it requires. "This is very problematic," said Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, arguing that this provision could push some companies to move abroad. In any case, the authorities of the United States of America continue their persistent activities to "restore order" in the cryptocurrency industry and so far they are doing quite well.

Let me remind you that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently expressed concern about Tether's statements that it has huge volumes of commercial securities – in other words, debts that companies issue to meet their short-term financing needs. The regulator also spoke unflatteringly about Diem, a coin developed by an association that includes Facebook, as well as other companies and non-profit organizations. The risk of its widespread distribution through social networks can also harm the financial system, since Facebook has almost 3 billion active users. Yellen called on agency managers to "act quickly" to ensure that the stablecoin complies with the rules put forward by the regulator.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, yesterday it slightly adjusted downwards during the publication of the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy, but then the demand for crypto assets returned along with interest in buying risky assets. The growth in the area of $40,000 leaves quite a lot of hope that the bulls will once again test the resistance at $41,100 in the near future. A breakout and an exit beyond this range will open a direct road to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. If the pressure on bitcoin returns in the near future, the bulls will need to try not to let BTC fall below the support of $36,700, as a lot depends on it. If the exchange rate goes below this level, most likely, the pressure on the world's first cryptocurrency will return, and we will see a support update of $33,300 and then a retest of $29,200, which will be the last blow to buyers' hopes for the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021