Cryptocurrency Analysis

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As soon as bitcoin rose to $40,000, "optimistic forecasters" immediately became active



Bitcoin has started to fall and will now strive for the level of $29,700. Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency retains chances of returning to the local maximum near the level of $42,300, we believe that it cannot avoid a fall to $29,700 in any case. Moreover, bitcoin is currently in an expanding side channel, that is, its current target is located even slightly below the level of $29,700. However, the main thing is something else: the bullish trend has not resumed, and bitcoin remains in the process of consolidation, as we have said in the last few months. Thus, the main transactions for "digital gold" should be sales.

As for the fundamental background, it continues to remain sharply negative for the first cryptocurrency in the world. We have already listed all the negative things that have been coming from China and the United States recently several times. It doesn't make sense to repeat it again. But crypto traders could observe a very interesting phenomenon in the last few days. As soon as bitcoin rose in price to $40,000, a whole mass of various crypto forecasters immediately became active, who again began to predict that bitcoin will cost in a few years. The list of crazy forecasts was opened, of course, by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor. In his opinion, bitcoin will be on the balance sheets of cities, states, and every person in a few years. In his opinion, everyone will own bitcoin. However, for what purposes every person on Earth will own bitcoin, Saylor did not say. A similar opinion was expressed by the founder of Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead. He said in an interview that bitcoin now looks undervalued, and in the next 10 years, the cryptocurrency will rise in price to $700 thousand per coin. In 10 years, Morehead believes, every smartphone owner will use bitcoin. But a fairly well-known cryptocurrency expert Willy Woo believes that bitcoin has not reached its heights even in 2021. As part of his podcast, he noticed that bitcoin had not previously completed a bullish trend, without working out the upper limit. And at the moment, the upper limit is at the level of $162,000, where bitcoin can strive for in the next 5 months.

As for us, we continue to believe that the bullish trend is over, and all attempts by investors to return bitcoin to growth are doomed to failure. We still adhere to the correction scenario, according to which bitcoin will first fall to $29,700, and then continue to decline to $24,000, $19,000, and even possibly $10,000 per coin. It is worth recalling once again that bitcoin has always lost 80-90% of its value when it finished another bullish trend.



Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700 with a margin and reached the level of $42,300. However, for the third day in a row, bitcoin is falling. We still expect a decline in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency to the level of $29,700. So far, the fundamental background remains clearly not on the side of bitcoin. Therefore, now it is possible to sell the cryptocurrency.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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SEC to impose stricter rules on the crypto market

SEC chief Gary Gensler said in an interview that the agency may impose stricter regulation on the crypto market in the near future. He noted that his recent interest in crypto assets does not mean that he will skip on policing the market, but did not specify how he will do so. Gensler, however, pointed out that the SEC will oversee crypto exchanges more closely, as such would be the easiest way to take control of digital token trading. Interestingly, he drew attention to companies that advertise various kinds of steakins, which promise to pay a certain percentage yield on the crypto asset. Gensler claimed that platforms that combine digital assets can be considered as mutual funds, which will also make them part of the competence of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Clearly,



On a different note, Glassnode reported a sharp decline in exchange balances, saying that over the past week, more than 100,000 BTC have gone from the wallets of cryptocurrency platforms. Such pushed reserves to the lowest level in a year. CryptoQuant also recorded similar movements.



In UK, the fight against cryptocurrency trading and Binance continues. Local reports say HSBC is blocking accounts of UK customers that try to use their credit cards to make payments to Binance. This move was made immediately after the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced that Binance is prohibited from conducting any regulated activities in the country. HSBC is said to have contacted many customers and advised them to stop making payments until further notice.

Binance, on the other hand, repeatedly stressed that they are serious about their customers and compliance obligations. They said they are committed to working with regulators to shape consumer protection policies.



With regards to Bitcoin, there was an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above $ 41,100 in the past days, which clearly jeopardized the bullish potential that has been observed in the market since July 20. Obviously, only a breakthrough and real consolidation above $ 41,100 will lead to a sharp rise to $ 46,700, and then to $ 52,000. Support is at $ 33,300, while the lower limit is $ 29,200.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin and Ethereum may renew their all-time highs this year



Ethereum and bitcoin have very good growth prospects. The second cryptocurrency showed a better week than bitcoin. Now ether is trading at the level of $2500, and its weekly growth was about 10%. Many institutions massively withdraw not only bitcoin, but also ethereum from their wallets. In August, the Ethereum London Hard Fork will take place. It can be observed that the balances of ethereum on crypto exchanges are globally decreasing.

Archived changes for the ether network should take place on this Hard Fork. Many are waiting for the release of ethereum 2.0 as manna from heaven, because they predict success and a palm tree on the crypto arena. Crypto enthusiasts want to see the updated and promised Proof-of-stake by Vitalik Buterin in order to completely abandon the Proof-of-work model, which is also used by bitcoin.

In 2019, the ether has already shown a significant jump in price, when it increased by 65% from May to July, the second case was recorded in 2020, when from March to July, the altcoin increased by almost 115%.

This is the coefficient of spent output profit, and following this uncomplicated trend, we can observe the growth of ether in action. According to the predictions of many analysts, in the 4th quarter of 2021, ethereum will cost 4000-5000 dollars.

As for the number one cryptocurrency, bitcoin tested the level of $41,900, but did not settle there and did not consolidate, and it fell again to $38,000.

Many experts predict that this year bitcoin will rise to its new record highs, and again it was not without the support of Elon Musk, Katie Wood, Jack Dorsey, Michael Saylor.

All these heavy figures in the crypto market constantly make clear arguments in favor of bitcoin and give forecasts regarding the number one cryptocurrency. Many analysts still believe that bitcoin is very undervalued and is worth at least 10 percent of its real value, and its real price is 350-400,000 dollars.

There is one very surprising fact that is worth paying attention to. Bitcoin exchange balances fell to the levels of 2020 and the first half of 2021. Only after that, it was possible to observe a sharp jump in the price of bitcoin, also the number one cryptocurrency has overcome all the moving averages and has now strengthened above these positions. Large institutions and humpback whales (who keep at least 1000 bitcoins on their accounts) continue to accumulate bitcoins and withdraw them to cold wallets.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: long-term bullish, short-term bearish scenario

Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, claims bitcoin could close the year in the $80,000-$90,000 range per coin. And in a year, the main cryptocurrency will rise above $120,000.

The forecast came after bitcoin again fell below $40,000 after a weekly sideways recovery.

Morehead notes that there is no doubt that bitcoin will naturally gain in value over time. For this reason, companies such as MicroStrategy and Andreessen Horowitz have announced 10-year plans for cryptocurrency. Among other things, this recovery will be fueled by an apparent increase in massive use by institutional investors. And in the next decade, its cost could rise to $700,000.

Many analysts now expect the BTC price to continue to rise, at least in the medium term. The accumulation trend is still strong among institutional investors. This was evidenced by data from Glassnode last week, which showed that there was a massive outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges. Most of these large volumes usually end up in the hands of institutional investors.

Crypto exchanges now have the lowest amount of bitcoins since November 2020. A decrease in volume could indicate a return in demand, which could push the price up.

Billionaire Tim Draper also predicts bitcoin's rise and price of $250,000 by the end of 2022. He believes this goal will be achieved due to the gradual reduction in the supply of the main cryptocurrency.

Meanwhile, the local scenario remains bearish: bitcoin continues to decline within the broad sideways 28,392.99 - 41,980.24. The last hope for a short-term fall is melting before our eyes: support at 38,610.88 is breaking through. And if a consolidation below happens, the path of BTC/USD downward will open, and the probability of a decline to $30,000 per coin will increase.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Short-term technical analysis on XRPUSD

As we explained in our analysis on XRPUSD, price was forming a wedge pattern and a break to the downside was expected. The wedge pattern broke to the downside. Our target was $0.66 when price was trading at $0.75 inside the wedge pattern.



Blue lines - wedge pattern

Price is now trading at $0.71 after making a pull back all the way to $0.69. Price is vulnerable to more downside as long as price is below $0.76. Our target remains at $0.66 for the pull back. However if bulls manage to break above $0.75 and stay above it, then we should expect XRPUSD to climb above $1. If XRPUSD continues making higher highs and higher lows, then the chances of a major low to be in already at $0.50 are increasing dramatically.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for August 03,.2021 - Breakout of the bear flag pattern and pottential for test of $36.400

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. There is the bearish flag pattern continuation al, which is good sign for further drop.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside target at $36,400.

Stochastic oscillator is showing bear cross, which is another sign for the weakness...

The trend is down....




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Independent Reserve receives approval to operate in Singapore



Independent Reserve has received a principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to operate. The company said it is one of the very first digital asset service providers to receive a license in Singapore. CEO Adrian Prelozny said this shows that their services are very safe.

"Being one of the first crypto exchanges to receive notice from MAS is a reflection of the robustness of the policies, procedures, and risk management systems that we have implemented for our day-to-day operations," Prelozny said.

Meanwhile, Singapore Senior Minister and Monetary Authority Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam disclosed that several candidates are still in the final stages of consideration.

Since the implementation of the Payment Services Law in January 2020, about 170 applicants have applied for the provision of digital payment token services. 30 applications were withdrawn since then, 2 were rejected and about 90 service providers are not licensed.

MAS said the applicants will be subject to rigorous scrutiny through the licensing process.

Founded in Australia in 2013, Independent Reserve launched its international expansion plans in late 2019, opening its first overseas operations in Singapore to provide digital asset exchange and OTC trading services to people and institutions in the country.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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China implements more rules against cryptocurrencies. Mastercard plans to launch crypto products and services.

Bitcoin could not climb higher than $ 41,000 amid another pressure from China. Latest reports say the People's Bank of China promised to continue imposing strict restrictions against cryptocurrencies, and many believe that this action is done to push competitors out of the market before the launch of the digital yuan.

Since 2017, the Chinese authorities have been carrying out the most intense persecution of cryptocurrency trading and mining. The main argument is the fraud, money laundering and overuse of electricity associated with the market. The People's Bank of China also introduced a series of regulatory measures aimed at monopolistic behavior of online payment platforms such as Ant Group Co. "All actions of the regulator are aimed solely at preventing serious financial risks, which should in the future lead to a reduction in the number of financial institutions with a high level of risk," they said. Deputy Governor Liu Guiping also proposed a new law on "financial stability", which is expected to put more pressure on the crypto market.



On a different note, Mastercard revealed this morning their plans to develop products and services related to cryptocurrencies. "We want to play a role in all directions because it is clear that digital assets are the most dynamic area that has been developing in recent years," CEO Michael Miebach said. He disclosed that the company will be collaborating with Consensys to accelerate the development of cryptographic applications and services for clients.

Miebach also said the company plans to launch services on stablecoins and central bank digital currencies.



Going back to Bitcoin, the unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above $ 41,100 clearly jeopardized the bullish potential that has been observed since July 20. Most likely, price will rise only after a break through and real consolidation above $ 41,100. If such a scenario happens, Bitcoin may reach $ 46,700 and $ 52,000. Support will be at $ 33,300, while the lower limit will be $ 29,200.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 3, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
GoldenTree Asset Management has become another US asset management company that has decided to add BTC to its balance sheet.

Thus, another big player became interested in the cryptocurrency market, which may affect many other companies making a similar decision. GoldenTree currently manages assets with an estimated value of $ 45 billion.

In the case of GoldenTree Asset Management, the purchase of BTC is to be a way to diversify the investment portfolio. Established in 2000, the company has so far focused primarily on loans. Now, however, it wants to expand its investments, and in addition to introducing bitcoins to the company's balance sheet, it is reportedly considering hiring cryptocurrency investment specialists. The person responsible for managing GoldenTree Asset Management remains its founder, Steven Tananbaum.

According to the survey, a similar step may be taken by the Marshall Wace fund, which manages assets worth $ 55 billion.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair rally above the $40,000 had been terminated at the level of $42,404 and the bears had managed to push the price out of the ascending channel towards the technical support seen at the level of $38, 261. There is a clear negative divergence between the price and momentum oscillator at the H4 time frame chart, so the pull-back might deepen towards the next technical support seen at the level of $36,551. Please keep an eye on the market reaction around the supply zone, because one violated will act as the technical support zone on the bulls way towards the next target seen at $46,371.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $53,201
WR2 - $47,804
WR1 - $45,105

Weekly Pivot - $39,794
WS1 - $37,184
WS2 - $31,598
WS3 - $29,174


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $47,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 3, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Global payment provider PayPal is currently recruiting for several cryptocurrency positions at its offices in Ireland, further underlining the company's ambitions in the rapidly growing digital asset market.

Dublin-based Irish Independent, one of the country's most popular news outlets, announced on Sunday that PayPal is looking to fill a variety of cryptocurrency-related positions for compliance, anti-money laundering and business development at its Dublin and Dundalk offices.

PayPal launched a dedicated Cryptocurrency and Blockchain business unit earlier this year to support its cryptocurrency adventure, which initially started in October 2020 by allowing US customers to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. In March this year, the company expanded its offering by allowing US customers to pay for goods and services using their digital assets. Two months later, PayPal said it would allow customers to withdraw their cryptocurrencies to third party wallets.

Dan Schulman, PayPal's CEO, said in April that his company's crypto operations exceeded all expectations in the first six months of operation. The rapid rise in the popularity of digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum coincided with a massive surge in prices that pushed the entire cryptocurrency market to nearly $ 2.6 trillion. Although prices have adjusted sharply between May and July, the cryptocurrency markets seem to have rebounded and are now moving up again.

During PayPal's quarterly profit statement last week, Schulman indicated that the company's cryptocurrency trading service will be arriving in the UK in the very near future. He also indicated that updates are being developed that would allow for faster payment processing.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair rally above the $2,500 had been terminated at the level of $2,695 so far after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. The market dropped towards the lower channel line around the level of $2,453 and this level is a technical support for bulls as well. There is a clear negative divergence between the price and momentum oscillator at the H4 time frame chart, so the pull-back might deepen towards the next technical support seen at the level of $2,405. Please keep an eye on the market reaction around the key technical resistance located at the level of $2,850, because one violated will act as the technical support zone on the bulls way towards the next target seen at $3,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,455
WR2 - $3,077
WR1 - $2,935

Weekly Pivot - $2,529
WS1 - $2,363
WS2 - $1,988
WS3 - $1,819


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021