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    1. #3311 Collapse post
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      Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 28, 2021


      Crypto Industry News:
      The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced the creation of a market advisory group to examine the infrastructural and circular potential of the digital Euro from the perspective of industry leaders.

      The group also aims to discover the optimal function of the digital Euro in the vast pan-European currency payment ecosystem.

      The group includes many renowned experts from the banking and financial sector, incl. Aleksander Kurtewski, Managing Director of Bankart, Antonio Macias Vecino, Head of Payment Discipline at BBVA, and Axel Schaefer, Payment Regulation and Innovation Officer, Ingka Group (Ikea), among others.

      Initial consultation meetings are expected to start in November 2021 and take place monthly. 30 members will work in advisory roles and will submit their findings for consideration in discussions on retail payments under the Euro Retail Payments Board.

      In mid-July, the ECB's Governing Council unveiled plans to launch a two-year initial research initiative on the viability of the digital Euro project, assessing parameters such as infrastructure creation, distribution and design, with the intention of "topping up cash, not replacing it".


      Technical Market Outlook
      The ETH/USD pair continue to move lower after the bears had broken below the short-term trend line support around the level of $4,100 and is trading around $4,000 already. The last local low was made at the level of $3,890 and the corrective cycle might extend towards the next technical support seen at $3,830 soon. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the bears are in control of the market and continue the corrective cycle. Only a sustained breakout back above the level of $4,273 would change the outlook to more bullish.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $5,099
      WR2 - $4,706
      WR1 - $4,412

      Weekly Pivot - $4,017
      WS1 - $3,701
      WS2 - $3,313
      WS3 - $2,969


      Trading Outlook:
      The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.


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      Sebastian Seliga
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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 28, 2021


      Crypto Industry News:
      El Salvador bought another 420 BTC. The president of the country, Nayib Bukele, informed about the new investment. He tweeted that his government had taken advantage of the recent decline in bitcoin's price to do so.

      "It took a long time to see it, but it was worth it"

      - Bukele wrote on Twitter when he reported that we "just bought" bitcoins.

      The four hundred and twenty bitcoins the government added to its balance sheet is worth around $ 24.6 million.
      The purchase brings the total amount of bitcoins El Salvador owns to 1,120 BTC (that's about $ 87.4 million).
      The media calculate that the country's authorities spent on average around USD 53,300 on 1 BTC.

      El Salvador first bought bitcoins in September. Back then it was 200 BTC.Then he bought cryptocurrencies in stages, almost every time using price adjustments that took place on the stock exchanges.


      Technical Market Outlook
      The BTC/USD pair had broken below the technical support seen at the level of $59,561 and is heading towards the next technical support located at $57,770. The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up is located at $56,934 and there should be some kind of bounce from this level. There is a 100% market geometry level based on Fibonacci extension located at $56,050 that might be a target for bears as well. The momentum is weak and negative as bears are temporary on control of Bitcoin. The larger time frame trend is still up.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $72,680
      WR2 - $69,750
      WR1 - $64,343

      Weekly Pivot - $61,785
      WS1 - $57,070
      WS2 - $54,248
      WS3 - $49,247


      Trading Outlook:
      According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $66,974 (the previous ATH level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).


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      Sebastian Seliga
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      Bitcoin plummeted by $ 5,000. Is this just the beginning?

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      For the last few days, Bitcoin has been actively falling. It was already mentioned earlier that the current technical analysis gives a more or less accurate picture of what is happening in the cryptocurrency market. The most important event was the breakdown of the upward trend line, which has already made one think about the end of the next "bullish" trend. Yesterday, the main digital asset fell below the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour timeframe. It is worth noting that these two points are very important, but at the same time, they can be vague.

      Now, let's take a look at them in more detail. From a technical point of view, a downward trend has now begun, with the $56,500 level as the first target. However, it can be recalled that BTC has grown by $ 25,000 recently, so a drop of even $ 10,000 falls under the concept of "correction". In addition, it is still very difficult to understand what caused such strong growth and updating of historical highs. Fundamentally speaking, such important events simply did not happen for bitcoin to rise by $ 25,000, even though the US Securities and Stock Markets Commission has approved the launch of ETF funds that have made the process of investing in bitcoin even easier and more accessible for institutional investors.

      Moreover, there are already some rudiments of bitcoin regulation at the state level, which significantly reduces the risks of various frauds and fraudulent schemes. However, most experts believe that the launch of an ETF will not lead to an increase in investment in Bitcoin. In other words, those investors who wanted to buy the coin did so without an ETF.

      Furthermore, Finance Minister Janet Yellen recently started talking about a new tax on unrealized capital. To put it simply, if one bought bitcoin and is going to keep it on the balance sheet for 10 years, and all this time it will become more expensive, then even if it is not sold, it is still necessary to pay income tax on the growth of the asset. This tax has not yet been introduced, but it is likely to be adopted by American lawmakers. What will happen? There will be a drop in demand for bitcoin, as investments in it will become much less attractive. It should be understood that no asset can go up in price forever. There are some limits to its value. But if the Fed is forever printing money and sending it to the economy, then Bitcoin and US stock indexes can also grow eternally. However, the Fed may soon begin to fight inflation by curtailing the QE program. That is, some investors will leave the cryptocurrency market in search of less risky assets amid lower inflation. The cash flow to the cryptocurrency market will weaken, as the flow of money from the Fed into the economy will begin to decrease. All this can lead to Bitcoin's new deep correction, and even to its "bearish" trend, which was already expected a few months ago.

      The current growth of this cryptocurrency is most similar to another hype and an attempt to earn as much as possible until the Fed curtailed QE and introduced new taxes on cryptocurrency transactions and unrealized capital.


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      The trend on the four-hour timeframe shifted to a downward one, as the price consolidated below the Ichimoku cloud. In this case, sales with the target level of $ 56,500 are now relevant. If the bears successfully break through this level, then the quotes of Bitcoin will continue to decline with the target of $ 51,350. In turn, a rebound from the level of $ 56,500 may serve as a basis for new purchases.




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      Paolo Greco
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      Bitcoin falls below $ 60,000


      Bitcoin fell below $ 60,000 on Wednesday as the euphoria over the first US crypto ETF dissipated and traders began taking profits after another record high. It slipped 6.4% to $ 58,132, hitting lows in the past two weeks.

      Ether also lost around 6%, while more volatile tokens such as Dash and EOS dropped more than 10%.

      It is not unusual for Bitcoin to quickly tumble after another failed attempt to climb above 63,000. It also has to cool down a bit before starting a new round of growth. Hanging in a tight channel will be the best for now.


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      In any case, latest data show that the total liquidation of long positions on Wednesday exceeded $ 700 million, the highest figure since September 20. It seems that the market has been using borrowed funds for quite a long time, so the positioning was excessive. Many speculative traders could not withstand the pressure and rushed to fix positions opened with leverage, which led to a slight correction in Bitcoin.

      Also, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker: BITO) accumulated over $ 1 billion just days after its launch last week. For crypto fans, this indicates widespread acceptance by investors. As such, despite the recent correction, many are awaiting the reaction of market players. They anticipate whether new players will appear and if they will bet on a further decrease in the short term.

      On a different note, QuickNode reportedly raised $ 35 million in a series A funding round spearheaded by Tiger Global. It was also participated by Alexis Ohanian's Seven Seven Six, Soma Capital, Arrington XRP Capital and Crossbeam. "This round is a major milestone that helps us deliver on our vision of growth in Web 3 through better infrastructure, improved tooling and greater accessibility across all blockchains," said QuickNode Vice President Amol Shah.

      The company explained that it will use the new funds to expand its product portfolio and support new networks. It also plans to work with a wide range of clients, from NFT platforms like Rarible to traditional financial institutions.


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      Technical analysis on Bitcoin
      The head-and-shoulders pattern that was formed yesterday is currently being tested. If the bears break down $ 59,400, Bitcoin will slump to $ 54,444 and then go to $ 50,900. The 200 MA is 45,000.

      But if the bulls manage to push the quote beyond $ 59,400, Bitcoin may soar to $ 62,800 and then go to $ 66,500.


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      Technical analysis on Ethereum
      Ethereum has fallen from record highs, but this does not mean that it will succumb to a bear market. The recent downward movement is nothing more than a technical correction, so even if the price falls to $ 3,600 or hit $ 3,405, the current bull market will not end. What traders need to do is to maintain control above $ 3,950 because that will push the quote to $ 4,367.





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      Jakub Novak
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      Trading plan for Bitcoin for October 28, 2021

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      TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
      Bitcoin corrective drop gathers momentum as prices slip below $58,500 on Thursday early hours of trade. The crypto currency is looking poised to drop towards $56,200 levels at least, as discussed earlier. Traders might be inclined to hold short positions and reduce risk to break even now, with potential target toward $56,200 and lower.

      Bitcoin might be drifting toward the channel support, which is seen around $50,000 mark highlighted in a rectangle box on the daily chart. Also note that the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the rally between $40,000 and $67,000 is seen passing through $49,000-50,000 mark as well. High probability remains for a bullish bounce if prices manage to drop there.

      The overall structure still remains bullish until prices stay above $40,000 initial support. The recent drop from $67,000 can be still defined as corrective before bulls are back in control again. On the flip side, if channel support breaks, it would be considered as bearish for the crypto as prices could drag through $40,000 levels going forward.


      TRADING PLAN:
      Potential drop toward $56,000 against $67,000.

      Good luck!





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      The market is simply taking profits; New milestone - Direxion Foundation launches bitcoin shorts

      Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in 1-1/2 weeks on Wednesday, losing up to 12% from recent gains - although the digital currency is still on its way to its annual highs thanks to the new opportunity to short positions on BTC.

      The market is simply taking profits; New milestone - Direxion Foundation launches bitcoin shorts. The digital token has lost 12.1% since hitting an all-time high on October 20 at $67,016.

      Bitcoin had fallen 2.3% to $58,965. Smaller coins such as Ethereum and Ripple, which tend to move in tandem with bitcoin, also fell by 3.5-7%.

      According to Tony Sycamore, a representative of City Index, bitcoin's losses were due to the fact that traders profited from its recent growth.

      Indeed, the moment of fixation was bound to happen. Now we are dealing with a new level of support.

      Let's also not forget that a small outflow occurred in the Shiba Inu trade sector, which shows a 100% increase over the past week. This is a normal short-term redistribution of assets between tokens.

      The quotes of cryptocurrencies were also affected by disappointing news for the holders of Robinhood shares: an ill-conceived policy regarding the IPO hit the platform, causing indirect damage to all its instruments as well.

      Now, when users of the platform are tearing and tearing, wanting to trade Shiba, the service refuses to add a new token, arguing this is dangerous volatility. In fact, things seem to be going badly for the service, and they are afraid of not being able to cope with the liquidity of transactions at the time of the course correction.

      Bitcoin is facing a "short-term downtrend," said Du Jun, co-founder of major crypto exchange operator Huobi Group, adding that further decline may be limited given the relatively low trading volumes. The fact is that the holders of the figure are now in no hurry to part with the asset, expecting naturally further growth against the background of positive news.

      This month, the digital currency showed an increase of almost 35%, which, while maintaining the dynamics, will be the best indicator in eight months. And it has every chance of it.

      Short positions on bitcoin - a new height has been taken

      Today, the exchange-traded fund Direxion Bitcoin Strategy Bear announced that bitcoin has overcome another major historical "support level". The bitcoin-related ETF industry in the US could reach another milestone by offering cryptocurrency futures shorts.

      According to a statement from the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, the Direxion exchange-traded fund offers short positions on CME bitcoin futures contracts. Against the background of the debuts of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF, both of which are backed by futures, this news was not so loud, but created prerequisites for the support of the exchange rate. As soon as retail traders react to the news at the US session, we can expect the token to grow.

      It should be noted that the Direxion fund is taking quite serious risks, including the possibility of destroying short sales. The habitually wild fluctuations of bitcoin will also be an independent problem. Other possible dangers include liquidity and futures issues, the filing says.

      But in reality, volatility is now playing into the hands of a market hungry for short trades. Moreover, short positions can add liquidity to the entire market. This type of transactions is extremely interesting to players in the cryptocurrency market, because the fluctuations of tokens can be very significant, and here the trader has a better chance that the short will bring profit. Therefore, such news can really strengthen BTC.

      "If you are not prepared for significant and unexpected changes in value and the likelihood that you may lose all your investments, you should not invest," the Commission said in a statement. But most likely, new options and the ability to hedge losses will make bitcoin even more attractive.





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      Bitcoin crashes and settles below the $60,000 milestone: ETF euphoria has passed, and sales are only getting worse


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      Bitcoin begins to lose value and falls below the $60,000 milestone. And all because the euphoria regarding the first historical ETF ProShares Bitcoin Strategy, or ticker BITO, has already passed.

      Traders have taken their profits after record highs. Digital gold has fallen by more than 6% to $58,800 today, thereby reaching the lowest levels in almost 14 days.

      A week ago, bitcoin reached its historical highs and traded at a price of $67,000, and a week later, bitcoin lost almost $10,000 in price.

      This means that the Bitcoin ETF was the catalyst that forced investors to buy bitcoins and increase the price.

      Some analysts from Nexo say that they are not surprised that bitcoin has not gained a foothold at its record high, since it first needs to cool down, slow down a little, go through a correction before moving on to a new stage of development.

      Speculators are reducing their positions. According to analytical data bybit.com , the total amount of liquidation of long positions today reached more than 700 million US dollars, which is a record since September.

      Jonathan Cheesman, head of over-the-counter institutional sales at the ftx cryptocurrency or derivatives exchange, believes that the market has been using borrowed funds for a whole week for a long time, and the CEO and co-founder of FRNT Financial Inc. Stefan Ouellette said that the euphoria around the ETF is passing, and the sell-off is only getting worse.

      For 14 days, it was possible to observe monthly and quarterly Bitcoin futures in the range of up to 30%, and over the past few days it was possible to observe a typical cryptographic rollback. Now there is a clear reversal of the pattern, namely, "head and shoulders", where the key level is $60,000.


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      Bitcoin fell below its 20-day moving average, and if it does not recover now, it could fall further down to $52,000.

      The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF amassed more than $1 billion in the days after it launched - it was a real sensational event for investors, since they did not need to own the crypto asset itself, but could speculate on correlations in price.

      It is very important for bitcoin to recover and step over the psychological threshold of $60,000, but in the meantime, the fall in prices is strengthened by the fixation of investor profits and sales.

      Many sellers take their profits on the investments received, and the correction is now a necessary event, however, as before, it was not provoked by any fundamental factors.





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      Ethereum: 3,800 attractive for sellers


      Ethereum is traded at 3,983.79 far below 4,332.29 today's high. Bitcoin's drop forced the altcoins to decline as well. The crypto plunged below strong downside obstacles, so the sentiment changed.

      In the short term, ETH/USD could approach and reach new lows after failing to approach and reach the previous highs. The cryptocurrency dropped by 9.17% from 4,332.29 daily high to 3,935.02 today's low. The bias is bearish right now, so more declines are expected.


      ETH/USD DOOR OPEN FOR MORE DECLINES


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      As you can see on the h4 chart, ETH/USD dropped and closed below the uptrend line and under 4,025 static support. Its breakout through the confluence area formed at the intersection between the support levels announced strong seller and potential deeper drop.

      Failing to take out the first warning line (wl1) and failing to stay above the upper median line (uml) signaled potential correction. 3,800 psychological level is seen as a downside target.


      ETHEREUM FORECAST
      The current breakdown below the upper median line, weekly pivot (4,043), 4,025, and through the uptrend line signals more declines. Testing and retesting the broken support levels could bring new short opportunities.

      Failing to approach and reach 4,375 previous high or the 4,380.64 all-time high signaled a potential correction towards 3,800 or even lower to 3,677.





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      Trading signal for BITCOIN on October 27 - 28, 2021: buy in case of bounce from $ 56,250 (EMA 200)

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      After having made an all-time high on October 20 at 66,938, Bitcoin is retreating and has already fallen from this level of more than $ 8,500 which represents an 11.5% loss so far. A technical rebound is expected at the support of the 200 EMA located around 56,250. The 1/8 murray support is located at the same level.

      The bulls have not been able to sustain the price of BTC above the psychological level of 60,000. It means that they are waiting for good support to buy Bitcoin again. According to the 4-hour chart, the 56,250 level is viewed as the key level that will give it the bullish moment and he price may rise to 62,500 and up to 3/8 of a murray at 68,750.

      According to historical data, every time that BTC printed a historical high, a consolidation always fololws that lasts for 3 to 4 weeks. This time a fall of more than 50% occurs. Therefore, BTC is likely to fail to consolidate above of 63,000. There is the strong resistance of 2/8 of murray, so there may be a fall to the support of 41,100. This is the price level of September 27.

      The medium-term outlook remains bullish for Bitcoin. As long as it remains above the 200 EMA (56,250), there will always be the possibility of a bullish movement and the price could rise to 68,750.

      On the other hand, a sharp break and consolidation below 56,000 could initiate a new bearish scenario and BTC price could fall to the psychological level of 50,000 and to the level -1/8 murray around 43,750.


      Support and Resistance Levels for October 27 - 28, 2021
      Resistance (3) 61,402
      Resistance (2) 60,783
      Resistance (1) 59,877

      Support (1) 57,851
      Support (2) 56,250
      Support (3) 54,661


      A trading tip for BITCOIN for October 27 - 28, 2021
      Buy in case of rebound around 56,250 (EMA 200) with take profit at 59,877 and 61,400 (SMA 21), stop loss below 55,250.





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      Bitcoin: fears came true, BTCUSD fell below 60,000; now heading to 55,000 and 52,000


      Fears about a deeper correction of the main cryptocurrency have been justified. The support of $60,000 per coin has been broken, and the head and shoulders reversal pattern has formed.

      With such a technical picture, the potential for working out a figure is measured by the height of its head. But let's take into account the levels standing in the way. In this case, the targets for the decline will be in the area of 55,000 - 56,000, and if it passes from top to bottom - in the area of 52,000 dollars per coin.


      The consequences of the collapse
      Today, the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market has decreased by more than $210 billion. The sudden crash resulted in over $850 million in long and short positions on leading cryptocurrency derivatives trading platforms.


      What triggered the fall
      While it looks like the correction may be over, there are several signals indicating a deeper correction. The estimated leverage ratio on cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges is about to hit an annual high.

      This reason intensified the market collapse in May: positions with leverage with a slight decrease in prices are quickly taken out, and accounts are closed by a margin call.

      Favorable funding rates of 0.1% or higher every eight hours are generally considered volatile. Higher rates suggest that market speculators are overly optimistic as traders who trade long pay to fund shorts (short traders). When this happens, traders can begin to experience so-called "euphoria" in their positions, which often leads to sharp corrections.

      CrytoQuant data shows that the calculated leverage ratio of Bitcoin across all exchanges is hovering around 0.19%, which is a negative signal for a continuation of the upward trend.


      Is the bullish trend lost?
      It should be noted that the high level of leveraged positions is nothing new. This threat was discussed last week, although few people paid attention to it. But then, favorable ETF news pushed the price up uncontrollably.

      Funding rates across all derivatives trading platforms may need to be normalized in order for the market to continue a healthy bullish move. And while the rally could continue without a drop in funding rates, an event similar to today's sudden collapse could occur in the market.

      So far, in my opinion, you should still focus on technology. Let's see how today's daily candle closes. And even if the breakout of the neckline of the reversal pattern turns out to be false, in the coming days, consolidation below $60,000 per coin is likely to occur.

      This means that the main cryptocurrency will go to at least $55,000 per coin.


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      Ekaterina Kiseleva
      Analytical expert of InstaForex
      © 2007-2021

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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