Non Farm Payroll Update

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U.S. Dollar Rebounds After Strong Jobs Data
The U.S. dollar erased some of its early losses against its major counterparts in the early New York session on Thursday, after a data showed that U.S. employment grew more than expected in June.

Data from the Labor Department showed that non-farm payroll employment skyrocketed by 4.8 million jobs in June after soaring by an upwardly revised 2.7 million jobs in May.

Economists had expected employment to surge up by about 3.0 million jobs compared to the spike of 2.5 million jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1 percent in June from 13.3 percent in May. The unemployment rate had been expected to dip to 12.3 percent.

The greenback climbed to 107.72 against the yen, from a 3-day low of 107.33 set in the Asian session. The pair was worth 107.47 when it ended deals on Wednesday.

The greenback recovered to 1.1251 against the euro and 1.2469 against the pound, from its early 8-day lows of 1.1303 and 1.2530, respectively.

The greenback reversed from its early 9-day low of 0.9427 against the franc and trading at 0.9457.

The greenback is likely to find resistance around 112.00 against the yen, 1.10 against the euro, 1.22 against the pound and 0.97 against the franc.

U.S. factory orders for May are due at 10:00 am ET.

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US Department of Labor Report

Affected assets: EURUSD, GBPUSD
Usually, the US Department of Labor releases its reports on the first Friday of a month, but this week's publication will take place on Thursday as tomorrow is a day-off due to the celebration of Independence Day. Job reports have a remarkable impact on the market and investors are getting ready for such publications beforehand. That is why, this week, the sentiment is rather nervous and tense. Analysts anticipate that today’s data will demonstrate a slight improvement in the labor market conditions. In particular, the number of newly created jobs is expected to increase by 2.9 million. Importantly, that would be the highest increase on record. However, last month, along with the rise in employment, the number of unemployed people also grew. This time, analysts forecast a decline in the unemployment rate to 12.3% from 13.3%. If these forecasts are confirmed, it would be a sign that the American economy started recovering gradually, so the US dollar is likely to strengthen amid that.

The EUR/USD currency pair has once again approached the support near 1.1180/1.1190 from where the price rebounded, triggering a bullish run. Probably, fluctuations in the area of 1.1275-1.1285 will slow down the uprise. The pair may even come under bearish pressure amid the expected news, which will push it towards 1,1180/1,1190.


While correcting from 1.2250, the GBP/USD pair returned to the level of 1.2500 where the movement slowed down. Probably, the area of 1.2500/1.2540 will serve as the resistance which will fuel the selling pressure thus pushing the price to 1.2350. Alternatively, if the pair breaks above the level of 1.2550, then it will have every chance of reaching 1.2620.



Will USD go UP or DOWN?

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The NFP release for June is coming
NFP (NonFarm Payrolls) represents the change in the number of employed people in USA during the previous month, excluding those who work in the farming industry. This is one of the most anticipated financial releases. In general, it is used as a gauge of economic health in the United States.
Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
July 2nd, 15:30 MT Time
The NFP release for June
The NFP release for June is coming
NFP Forecast
The last NFP report pleasantly surprised investors, beating all estimates. Numbers rose by 2.5 million when analysts anticipated contraction by nearly 8 million. It was a surprising but clear sign that the US employment recovery had started.
We can’t be confident in how exactly the market will react to the fresh employment data. During the pandemic, the US currency also served as a safe-haven asset and was still attractive for investors, even if the data was dire. However, now it seems that this role wanes, and everything gets back on track. Thus, most likely, if NFP is better than expected, USD will gain, otherwise — drop.
Get ready for NFP release on July 2nd, 15:30 MT Time!